2023 Nigerian presidential election in Zamfara State

2023 Nigerian presidential election in Zamfara State
	25 February 2023
Registered	1,926,870
President before election; Muhammadu Buhari; APC	Elected President ; TBD;

The 2023 Nigerian presidential election in Zamfara State will be held on 25 February 2023 as part of the nationwide 2023 Nigerian presidential election to elect the president and vice president of Nigeria.[1] Other federal elections, including elections to the House of Representatives and the Senate, will also be held on the same date while state elections will be held two weeks afterward on 11 March.

Background

Zamfara State is highly populated northwestern state mainly inhabited by ethnic Hausas and Fulanis. In the years before the election, the state was beset by the bandit conflict along with herder–farmer clashes and the nationwide kidnapping epidemic as bandits raid entire towns, kidnap school children, and attack motorists.

Politically, the 2019 elections were initially a continuation of the state APC's dominance as the party's presidential nominee Muhammadu Buhari won the state by over 50% and the party won all three senate seats while also sweeping the House of Representatives elections. On the state level, the APC also retained its House of Assembly majority and its gubernatorial nominee—Mukhtar Shehu Idris—won the gubernatorial election by a wide margin. However, right before inaugurations, the Supreme Court ruled that the Zamfara APC did not hold valid primaries and thus all of its candidates—other than Buhari, who was nominated nationally—were disqualified.

Polling

Polling organisation/client	Fieldwork date	Sample size					Others	Undecided	Undisclosed	Not voting
			Tinubu APC	Obi LP	Kwankwaso NNPP	Abubakar PDP

Nextier (Zamfara crosstabs of national poll)	27 January 2023	N/A	55.1%	1.4%	4.3%	39.1%	–	–	–	–
SBM Intelligence for EiE (Zamfara crosstabs of national poll)	22 January-6 February 2023	N/A	37%	25%	5%	28%	–	5%	–	–

Projections

Source	Projection		As of
Africa Elects[lower-alpha 1][2]	Lean Tinubu		24 February 2023
Dataphyte[lower-alpha 2][3]
	Tinubu:	43.30%	11 February 2023
	Obi:	7.51%
	Abubakar:	43.30%
	Others:	5.69%
Enough is Enough- SBM Intelligence[lower-alpha 3][4]	Tinubu		17 February 2023
SBM Intelligence[lower-alpha 4][5]	Tinubu		15 December 2022
ThisDay[lower-alpha 5][6]
	Tinubu:	35%	27 December 2022
	Obi:	–
	Kwankwaso:	20%
	Abubakar:	35%
	Others/Undecided:	10%
The Nation[lower-alpha 6][7][8]	Tinubu		12-19 February 2023

General election

Results

2023 Nigerian presidential election in Zamfara State
Party		Candidate	%
	A	Christopher Imumolen
	AA	Hamza al-Mustapha
	ADP	Yabagi Sani
	APP	Osita Nnadi
	AAC	Omoyele Sowore
	ADC	Dumebi Kachikwu
	APC	Bola Tinubu
	APGA	Peter Umeadi
	APM	Princess Chichi Ojei
	BP	Sunday Adenuga
	LP	Peter Obi
	NRM	Felix Johnson Osakwe
	NNPP	Rabiu Kwankwaso
	PRP	Kola Abiola
	PDP	Atiku Abubakar
	SDP	Adewole Adebayo
	YPP	Malik Ado-Ibrahim
	ZLP	Dan Nwanyanwu
Total votes			100.00%
Invalid or blank votes			N/A
Turnout

By senatorial district

The results of the election by senatorial district.

Senatorial District	Bola Tinubu APC		Peter Obi LP		Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP		Atiku Abubakar PDP		Others		Total Valid Votes
Senatorial District	Votes	Percentage	Votes	Percentage	Votes	Percentage	Votes	Percentage	Votes	Percentage	Total Valid Votes
Zamfara Central Senatorial District[lower-alpha 7]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Zamfara North Senatorial District[lower-alpha 8]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Zamfara West Senatorial District[lower-alpha 9]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Totals	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD

By federal constituency

The results of the election by federal constituency.

Federal Constituency	Bola Tinubu APC		Peter Obi LP		Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP		Atiku Abubakar PDP		Others		Total Valid Votes
Federal Constituency	Votes	Percentage	Votes	Percentage	Votes	Percentage	Votes	Percentage	Votes	Percentage	Total Valid Votes
Anka/Talata/Mafara Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 10]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Bakura/Maradun Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 11]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Bungudu/Maru Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 12]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Gunmi/Bukkuyum Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 13]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Gusau/Tsafe Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 14]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Kaura Namoda/Birnin Magaji Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 15]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Shinkafi/Zurmi Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 16]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Totals	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD

By local government area

The results of the election by local government area.

LGA	Bola Tinubu APC		Peter Obi LP		Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP		Atiku Abubakar PDP		Others		Total Valid Votes	Turnout Percentage
LGA	Votes	Percentage	Votes	Percentage	Votes	Percentage	Votes	Percentage	Votes	Percentage	Total Valid Votes	Turnout Percentage
Anka	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Bakura	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Birnin Magaji/Kiyaw	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Bukkuyum	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Bungudu	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Gummi	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Gusau	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Kaura Namoda	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Maradun	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Maru	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Shinkafi	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Talata Mafara	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Tsafe	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Zurmi	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Totals	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%

Notes

Africa Elects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
Dataphyte projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
SBM projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Too close to call" (TCC).
ThisDay projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
The Nation projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Battlegrounds."
Comprising the local government areas of Bungudu, Gusau, Maru, and Tsafe.
Comprising the local government areas of Birnin Magaji/Kiyaw, Kaura Namoda, Shinkafi, Talata Mafara, and Zurmi.
Comprising the local government areas of Anka, Bakura, Bukkuyum, Gummi, and Maradun.
Comprising the local government areas of Anka and Talata Mafara.
Comprising the local government areas of Bakura and Maradun.
Comprising the local government areas of Bungudu and Maru.
Comprising the local government areas of Gummi and Bukkuyum.
Comprising the local government areas of Gusau and Tsafe.
Comprising the local government areas of Birnin Magaji/Kiyaw and Kaura Namoda.
Comprising the local government areas of Shinkafi and Zurmi.

References

Jimoh, Abbas (26 February 2022). "INEC Sets New Dates For 2023 General Elections". Daily Trust. Retrieved 26 February 2022.
Elimian, Adrian (24 February 2023). "Nigerian Presidential Election: State Ratings". Africa Elects. Retrieved 25 February 2023.
"President Tinubu: Predilections and Predictions". Substack. Dataphyte. 11 February 2023. Retrieved 11 February 2023.
"The EiE-SBM 2023 Election forecast: It all hinges on insecurity and turnout". SBM Intelligence. 17 February 2023. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
"Projection: 2023 presidential elections". SBM Intelligence. 15 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
"THISDAY 2023 Election Centre: Why Presidential Run off is Increasingly Likely". ThisDay. 27 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny (12 February 2023). "Who wins 2023 presidential election?". The Nation. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny (19 February 2023). "WHO WINS 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION? | The Nation Newspaper". The Nation Newspaper. Retrieved 19 February 2023.

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[2] Africa Elects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".

[4] Dataphyte projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.

[6] EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.

[8] SBM projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Too close to call" (TCC).

[10] ThisDay projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.

[12] The Nation projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Battlegrounds."

[15] Comprising the local government areas of Bungudu, Gusau, Maru, and Tsafe.

[16] Comprising the local government areas of Birnin Magaji/Kiyaw, Kaura Namoda, Shinkafi, Talata Mafara, and Zurmi.

[17] Comprising the local government areas of Anka, Bakura, Bukkuyum, Gummi, and Maradun.

[18] Comprising the local government areas of Anka and Talata Mafara.

[19] Comprising the local government areas of Bakura and Maradun.

[20] Comprising the local government areas of Bungudu and Maru.

[21] Comprising the local government areas of Gummi and Bukkuyum.

[22] Comprising the local government areas of Gusau and Tsafe.

[23] Comprising the local government areas of Birnin Magaji/Kiyaw and Kaura Namoda.

[24] Comprising the local government areas of Shinkafi and Zurmi.

[New_Dates-1] Jimoh, Abbas (26 February 2022). "INEC Sets New Dates For 2023 General Elections". Daily Trust. Retrieved 26 February 2022.

[Africa_Elects_state_ratings-3] Elimian, Adrian (24 February 2023). "Nigerian Presidential Election: State Ratings". Africa Elects. Retrieved 25 February 2023.

[Dataphyte_February_projections-5] "President Tinubu: Predilections and Predictions". Substack. Dataphyte. 11 February 2023. Retrieved 11 February 2023.

[EiE-SBM_February_projections-7] "The EiE-SBM 2023 Election forecast: It all hinges on insecurity and turnout". SBM Intelligence. 17 February 2023. Retrieved 19 February 2023.

[9] "Projection: 2023 presidential elections". SBM Intelligence. 15 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.

[ThisDay_December_projections-11] "THISDAY 2023 Election Centre: Why Presidential Run off is Increasingly Likely". ThisDay. 27 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.

[TN_February_projections-13] Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny (12 February 2023). "Who wins 2023 presidential election?". The Nation. Retrieved 19 February 2023.

[14] Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny (19 February 2023). "WHO WINS 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION? | The Nation Newspaper". The Nation Newspaper. Retrieved 19 February 2023.

(2022 ←) 2023 Nigerian elections (→ 2024)
President	Abia Adamawa Akwa Ibom Anambra Bauchi Bayelsa Benue Borno Cross River Delta Ebonyi Edo Ekiti Enugu FCT Gombe Imo Jigawa Kaduna Kano Katsina Kebbi Kogi Kwara Lagos Nasarawa Niger Ogun Ondo Osun Oyo Plateau Rivers Sokoto Taraba Yobe Zamfara
Senate	Abia Adamawa Akwa Ibom Anambra Bauchi Bayelsa Benue Borno Cross River Delta Ebonyi Edo Ekiti Enugu FCT Gombe Imo Jigawa Kaduna Kano Katsina Kebbi Kogi Kwara Lagos Nasarawa Niger Ogun Ondo Osun Oyo Plateau Rivers Sokoto Taraba Yobe Zamfara
House of Representatives	Abia Adamawa Akwa Ibom Anambra Bauchi Bayelsa Benue Borno Cross River Delta Ebonyi Edo Ekiti Enugu FCT Gombe Imo Jigawa Kaduna Kano Katsina Kebbi Kogi Kwara Lagos Nasarawa Niger Ogun Ondo Osun Oyo Plateau Rivers Sokoto Taraba Yobe Zamfara
Governors	Abia Adamawa Akwa Ibom Bauchi Bayelsa Benue Borno Cross River Delta Ebonyi Enugu Gombe Imo Jigawa Kaduna Kano Katsina Kebbi Kogi Kwara Lagos Nasarawa Niger Ogun Oyo Plateau Rivers Sokoto Taraba Yobe Zamfara
Houses of Assembly	Abia Adamawa Akwa Ibom Anambra Bauchi Bayelsa Benue Borno Cross River Delta Ebonyi Edo Ekiti Enugu Gombe Imo Jigawa Kaduna Kano Katsina Kebbi Kogi Kwara Lagos Nasarawa Niger Ogun Ondo Osun Oyo Plateau Rivers Sokoto Taraba Yobe Zamfara
Local	Zamfara
Statewide	Abia Adamawa Akwa Ibom Anambra Bauchi Bayelsa Benue Borno Cross River Delta Ebonyi Edo Ekiti Enugu FCT Gombe Imo Jigawa Kaduna Kano Katsina Kebbi Kogi Kwara Lagos Nasarawa Niger Ogun Ondo Osun Oyo Plateau Rivers Sokoto Taraba Yobe Zamfara