2023 Oyo State gubernatorial election

The Governor of Oyo State is elected using a modified two-round system. To be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive the plurality of the vote and over 25% of the vote in at least two-thirds of state local government areas. If no candidate passes this threshold, a second round will be held between the top candidate and the next candidate to have received a plurality of votes in the highest number of local government areas.

Oyo State is a large, Yoruba-majority southwestern state; the state has vast agricultural and service sectors but it faces large security issues from both inter-ethnic violence and conflict between herders and farmers along with a large number of out-of-school children.[7]

Politically, the 2019 elections in the state were categorized as a large swing towards the PDP as the party's presidential nominee Atiku Abubakar narrowly won the state after Buhari had won it in 2015, Makinde won the gubernatorial race by 17% of the vote, and the PDP gained a majority in the House of Assembly. For the Senate, the APC won back two Senate seats it lost through defections while the PDP gained a APC-held seat; in the House of Representatives, the APC won the majority of the seats.

Ahead of his term, Makinde's inauguration speech focused on ease of doing business, fighting poverty, education, agricultural development, disability rights, and healthcare.[8] In terms of his performance, Makinde was commended for a productive first 100 days, investing heavily in educational development, establishing the Oyo State Anti-Corruption Agency, and confirming that Muslim students could wear hijabs in school.[9][10][11][12][13][14] However, he was criticized for poor initial responses to the COVID-19 pandemic and October 2020 End SARS protests along with proposed handing over of Government College, Ibadan to the alumni association.[15][16][17]

The primaries, along with any potential challenges to primary results, were to take place between 4 April and 3 June 2022 but the deadline was extended to 9 June.[2][18]

Immediately after the primaries in June 2022, observers stated that Makinde and Folarin were focusing on unifying their respective parties. PDP members aggrieved by Makinde's allegedly 'exclusionist' leadership style began to be viewed as a potential liability for Makinde by pundits while analysts also noted that Ezenwo Nyesom Wike–an ally of Makinde–losing the PDP presidential primary might lead to less out-of-state internal party support for Makinde's campaign. Another potential problem for Makinde was his attempts to impeach his Olaniyan for decamping to the APC.[73] Folarin also faced issues with defections as several high-profile party members (including primary runner-up Adebayo Adelabu) switched to Accord or the New Nigeria Peoples Party;[74][75][76] in response, the party formed a peace and reconciliation committee.[77] By August and September, the APC reconciliation process had proceeded but the party continued to fear further loss of support, especially from the relatives of late former Governor Abiola Ajimobi as more losing gubernatorial candidates refused to back Folarin;[78][79] similarly, Makinde's issues with the national PDP continued into the month as well.[80]

Pundits noted that regional unity, not just party unity, would also be required for successful campaigns. Candidates from outside the city of Ibadan, which has produced six of seven elected governors, were passed over for major party nominations as both Folarin and Makinde are from the city.[81] The oft-lamented dominance of Ibadan on Oyo State politics due to its numerical advantage[lower-alpha 2] sparked resentment; both major parties were expected to select deputy nominees from outside the city to balance their tickets, both major candidates followed the expectation with Makinde picking Kisi-native Bayo Lawal and Folarin selecting Shaki-native David Oluwafemi Okunlola.

Later in 2022, Makinde continued his disputes with the national PDP by aligning with the Wike-led Integrity Group against the party's presidential nominee—Atiku Abubakar. By December, reports that the Integrity Group planned to endorse a different party's presidential nominee purportedly led the PDP to threaten the group with expulsion. Amid the turmoil, analysts noted that the dispute could greatly affect Makinde's re-election chances as Abubakar allies within the Oyo PDP could support Folarin to remove an intra-party rival.[82][83] However, Folarin continued to face similar internal problems as reporting revealed that former state First Lady Florence Ajimobi was supporting Adebayo Adelabu (A) while several other Oyo APC figures (Minister Sunday Akin Dare, former Minister Abdur-Raheem Adebayo Shittu) did not actively campaign for Folarin. Perhaps most importantly, APC presidential nominee Bola Tinubu also allegedly did not support Folarin by January 2023.[84]

By 2023, attention largely switched to the presidential election on 25 February. In the election, Oyo State voted for Bola Tinubu (APC); Tinubu won 55.6% of the vote to defeat Atiku Abubakar (PDP) at 22.6% and Peter Obi (LP) at 12.2%. Although the result was unsurprising as Oyo is in Tinubu's southwestern base and projections had favored him, the totals led to increased pressure on the Makinde campaign due to Tinubu's wide margin of victory and APC downballot successes. Gubernatorial campaign analysis in the wake of the presidential election noted that Makinde's (alleged) tacit support for Tinubu may inadvertently hurt his own campaign as the move galvanized APC supporters while alienating Abubakar-supporting PDP voters.[85] However, other punditry pointed out intra-APC divides in addition to the resurfacing of Folarin's murder charge from the 2010 NURTW crisis.[86][87]

• 2023 Nigerian elections
• 2023 Nigerian gubernatorial elections