2023 Ogun State gubernatorial election

The governor of Ogun State is elected using a modified two-round system. To be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive the plurality of the vote and over 25% of the vote in at least two-thirds of state local government areas. If no candidate passes this threshold, a second round will be held between the top candidate and the next candidate to have received a plurality of votes in the highest number of local government areas.

Ogun State is a small, Yoruba-majority southwestern state with vast natural areas and significant economic growth but facing a lack of affordable housing, an underdeveloped agricultural sector, and brain drain.

Politically, the 2019 elections were categorized as a reassertion of the state APC's control in the wake of a party rift that led allies of outgoing Governor Ibikunle Amosun to defect to the APM. Despite the defections, Abiodun won the gubernatorial race for the APC by a narrow 3% margin and the party won a majority in the House of Assembly. Federally, the APC swept all three Senate seats and won most House of Representatives seats. For the presidency, Ogun was won by APC nominee Muhammadu Buhari with about 50% but swung slightly towards the PDP. During the 2019–2023 term, the majority of APM elected officials returned to the APC, giving the party boosts in both the federal and state Houses.

Ahead of Abiodun's term, his policy focuses included security, public service and local government reform, unemployment, education, infrastructure, healthcare, and agriculture development as well as a pledge to complete in-progress projects from Amosun's administration.[8][9] In terms of his performance, Abiodun was commended for proactive approaches to unemployment and the economy along with improving infrastructure in long-neglected communities along the Lagos State border but was criticized for the months-long delay in forming a cabinet, breaking a campaign promise to establish a university, and the failure to pay state government workers' co-operative deductions for over a year.[10][11][12][13][14] Abiodun also came over fire after the Pandora Papers leaks revealed that he was illegally involved in two British Virgin Islands-based offshore companies.[15]

The primaries, along with any potential challenges to primary results, were to take place between 4 April and 3 June 2022 but the deadline was extended to 9 June.[2][16]

As the general election campaign began in June 2022, pundits focused on the major candidates' attempts to unify their parties in the wake of the party primaries. Both Abiodun and Adebutu started party reconciliation processes but both faced difficulties; the most major post-primary change was the sudden defection of Adekunle Akinlade and other allies of former Governor Ibikunle Amosun from the APC to the PDP with Akinlade emerging as Adebutu's running mate. Despite the PDP's poor showing in 2019,[lower-alpha 1] analysts noted the political clout that the defectors held while the APC publicly recorded its indifference.[64][65][66] However, by August, the APC set up reconciliation efforts to prevent further defections but the moves were impacted by the Amosun-Abiodun feud publicly reigniting after Amosun alleged that the 2019 election was rigged against Akinlade with Abiodun replying that Amosun had "self-delusion."[67][68][69] For the PDP, observers noted that internal crises had negatively affected the party in every gubernatorial election since 2011 as the nominees of unrecognized factions continued to claim to be the legitimate PDP nominee.[70]

In September, while continuing to dismiss intraparty rival Segun Sowunmi's claim to the nomination, Adebutu and the PDP become controversial for a leaked document outlining their attempt to consolidate the alliance with the Akinlade-led defectors.[71] To secure the alliance, Adebutu and Akinlade had signed an agreement in June that had delineated the amount of appointed offices and nominations that would be filled by Akinlade group members.[72][73][74] In the wake of the leak, the PDP defended the document as a "memorandum of understanding" to facilitate more cohesive governance and campaigning but critics attacked the paper as an attempt by Adebutu and Akinlade to corruptly divide "positions and resources among their cronies."[75][76] These dynamics took a backseat to court drama a few days later, when a case from losing primary aspirants led a High Court to annul the PDP primary and order the party to conduct a new primary.[6] The PDP did not organize a new primary, instead appealing the ruling as Adebutu continued to claim to be the rightful nominee amid further counterclaims and court battles.[77][78] Also in early October, former Governor Amosun snubbed both Abiodun and the Adebutu-Akinlade ticket in revealing his endorsement of ADC nominee Olubiyi Otegbeye.[79][80]

In the wake of the deepening PDP crisis and Amosun's endorsement of Otegbeye, journalists reported in November that Abiodun could be on track for a comfortable victory due to the divided opposition and support from traditional leaders.[81] However, following weeks brought a massive shifts to the race as a Federal High Court ruling disqualified Otegbeye and all other Osun ADC nominees for the party's improper nomination processes while a Court of Appeal decision reinstated Adebutu as the legitimate PDP nominee.[82][7] Although Adebutu was reinstated (and later confirmed by a Supreme Court ruling in January), internal PDP opponents vowed to continue their efforts against him as pundits noted that the infighting could still pose a major risk for the Adebutu campaign.[49][83][84] By January, Otegbeye was also reinstated by a court appeal as legitimate nominee with pundits swiftly reviewing his renewed campaign and its prospects.[85][86][87]

The next month, attention largely switched to the presidential election on 25 February. In the election, Ogun State voted for Bola Tinubu (APC); Tinubu won 58.9% of the vote to defeat Atiku Abubakar (PDP) at 21.4% and Peter Obi (LP) at 14.8%. Although the result was unsurprising as Ogun is in Tinubu's southwestern base and projections had favored him, the totals led to increased faith in Abiodun's chances due to Tinubu's wide margin of victory. On the other hand, gubernatorial campaign analysis reiterated the potential impact of the split in the former APC base between Abiodun and Otegbeye (who by this point was regarded as a major contender).[88] Despite the APC split, the EiE-SBM forecast projected Abiodun to win based on the "overwhelming victory" of Tinubu.[89] Other reports noted regional dynamics in addition to internal party crises.[90]

• 2023 Nigerian elections
• 2023 Nigerian gubernatorial elections