2023 Nigerian presidential election in Abia State

The 2023 Nigerian presidential election in Abia State will be held on 25 February 2023 as part of the nationwide 2023 Nigerian presidential election to elect the president and vice president of Nigeria.[1] Other federal elections, including elections to the House of Representatives and the Senate, will also be held on the same date while state elections will be held two weeks afterward on 11 March.

2023 Nigerian presidential election in Abia State
25 February 2023
Registered2,120,808
 
Nominee Bola Tinubu Peter Obi
Party APC LP
Home state Lagos Anambra
Running mate Kashim Shettima Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed
 
Nominee Rabiu Kwankwaso Atiku Abubakar
Party NNPP PDP
Home state Kano Adamawa
Running mate Isaac Idahosa Ifeanyi Okowa
President before election

Muhammadu Buhari
APC

 Elected President

TBD

Background

Abia State is a small, Igbo-majority southeastern state; although it is one of the most developed states in the nation, Abia has faced challenges in security as both the nationwide kidnapping epidemic and separatist violence have heavily affected the region. Originally launched ostensibly to defend ethnic Igbos from herdsmen and government attacks, the separatist organization Indigenous People of Biafra's Eastern Security Network began violently enforcing economically destructive weekly lockdowns in 2021 and swiftly were criticized for committing human rights abuses against civilians it was meant to protect.[2][3] These atrocities coupled with law enforcement brutality and herder–farmer clashes worsened the security situation prior to the election.[4][5]

Politically, the 2019 elections were categorized as a solidification of the Abia PDP's control but a slight expansion of the APC on the federal level. Statewise, incumbent PDP Governor Okezie Ikpeazu won re-election with over 60% of the vote and the vast majority of House of Assembly seats were won by the PDP. On the other hand, while the PDP was still successful federally, it lost ground only winning seven House of Representatives seats and two Senate seats compared to all nine and all three in 2015. For the presidency, Abia was easily won by PDP nominee Atiku Abubakar with about 68% but still swung towards the APC and had strikingly low turnout.

Polling
Polling organisation/client Fieldwork
date		 Sample
size		 Others Undecided Undisclosed Not voting
Tinubu
APC		 Obi
LP		 Kwankwaso
NNPP		 Abubakar
PDP
BantuPage January 2023 N/A 1% 83% 3% 3% – 6% 4% 1%
Nextier
(Abia crosstabs of national poll)		 27 January 2023 N/A 1.5% 93.8% – 1.5% – 3.1% – –
SBM Intelligence for EiE
(Abia crosstabs of national poll)		 22 January-6 February 2023 N/A 2% 17% – 2% 2% 78% – –

Projections
Source Projection As of
Africa Elects[lower-alpha 1][6] Safe Obi 24 February 2023
Dataphyte[lower-alpha 2][7]
Tinubu: 14.38% 11 February 2023
Obi: 62.79%
Abubakar: 18.99%
Others: 3.84%
Enough is Enough-
SBM Intelligence[lower-alpha 3][8]		 Obi 17 February 2023
SBM Intelligence[lower-alpha 4][9] Obi 15 December 2022
ThisDay[lower-alpha 5][10]
Tinubu: 10% 27 December 2022
Obi: 60%
Kwankwaso: –
Abubakar: 15%
Others/Undecided: 15%
The Nation[lower-alpha 6][11][12] Obi 12-19 February 2023

General election

Results
2023 Nigerian presidential election in Abia State
Party Candidate Votes %
A Christopher Imumolen
AA Hamza al-Mustapha
ADP Yabagi Sani
APP Osita Nnadi
AAC Omoyele Sowore
ADC Dumebi Kachikwu
APC Bola Tinubu
APGA Peter Umeadi
APM Princess Chichi Ojei
BP Sunday Adenuga
LP Peter Obi
NRM Felix Johnson Osakwe
NNPP Rabiu Kwankwaso
PRP Kola Abiola
PDP Atiku Abubakar
SDP Adewole Adebayo
YPP Malik Ado-Ibrahim
ZLP Dan Nwanyanwu
Total votes 100.00%
Invalid or blank votes N/A
Turnout

By senatorial district

The results of the election by senatorial district.

Senatorial District Bola Tinubu
APC		 Peter Obi
LP		 Rabiu Kwankwaso
NNPP		 Atiku Abubakar
PDP		 Others Total Valid Votes
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Abia Central Senatorial District[lower-alpha 7] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Abia North Senatorial District[lower-alpha 8] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Abia South Senatorial District[lower-alpha 9] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD

By federal constituency

The results of the election by federal constituency.

Federal Constituency Bola Tinubu
APC		 Peter Obi
LP		 Rabiu Kwankwaso
NNPP		 Atiku Abubakar
PDP		 Others Total Valid Votes
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Aba North/Aba South Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 10] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Arochukwu/Ohafia Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 11] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Bende Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 12] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Isiala Ngwa North/Isiala Ngwa South Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 13] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Isuikwuato/Umunneochi Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 14] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Obingwa/Ugwunagbo/Osisioma Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 15] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Ukwa East/Ukwa West Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 16] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Umuahia North/Umuahia South/Ikwuano Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 17] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD

By local government area

The results of the election by local government area.

LGA Bola Tinubu
APC		 Peter Obi
LP		 Rabiu Kwankwaso
NNPP		 Atiku Abubakar
PDP		 Others Total Valid Votes Turnout Percentage
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Aba North TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Aba South TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Arochukwu TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Bende TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Ikwuano TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Isiala Ngwa North TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Isiala Ngwa South TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Isuikwuato TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Obi Ngwa TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Ohafia TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Osisioma TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Ugwunagbo TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Ukwa East TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Ukwa West TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Umuahia North TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Umuahia South TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Umu Nneochi TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %

See also

Notes
  1. AfricaElects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
  2. Dataphyte projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
  3. EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
  4. SBM projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Too close to call" (TCC).
  5. ThisDay projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
  6. SBM projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Battlegrounds."
  7. Comprising the local government areas of Ikwuano, Isiala Ngwa North, Isiala Ngwa South, Umuahia North, and Umuahia South.
  8. Comprising the local government areas of Arochukwu, Bende, Isuikwuato, Ohafia, and Umu Nneochi.
  9. Comprising the local government areas of Aba North, Aba South, Obi Ngwa, Osisioma Ngwa, Ugwunagbo, Ukwa East, and Ukwa West.
  10. Comprising the local government areas of Aba North and Aba South.
  11. Comprising the local government areas of Arochukwu and Ohafia.
  12. Comprising the local government area of Bende.
  13. Comprising the local government areas of Isiala-Ngwa North and Isiala-Ngwa South.
  14. Comprising the local government areas of Isuikwuato and Umu-Nneochi.
  15. Comprising the local government areas of Obi Ngwa, Osisioma Ngwa, and Ugwunagbo.
  16. Comprising the local government areas of Ukwa East and Ukwa West.
  17. Comprising the local government areas of Ikwuano, Umuahia North, and Umuahia South.

References
  1. Jimoh, Abbas (26 February 2022). "INEC Sets New Dates For 2023 General Elections". Daily Trust. Retrieved 26 February 2022.
  2. Ayitogo, Nasir. "ANALYSIS: Despite Nnamdi Kanu's incarceration, IPOB-linked killings, attacks continue in South-east". Premium Times. Retrieved 13 March 2022.
  3. Okoli, Anayo; Nkwopara, Chidi; Agbo, Dennis; Nwaiwu, Chimaobi; Alaribe, Ugochukwu; Okonkwo, Nwabueze; Adonu, Chinedu; Alozie, Chinonso; Odu, Ikechukwu; Oko, Steve; Ali, Uchenna. "How Monday sit-at-home is affecting South-East economy". Vanguard. Retrieved 13 March 2022.
  4. "Nigeria: At least 115 people killed by security forces in four months in country's Southeast". Amnesty International. 5 August 2021. Retrieved 13 March 2022.
  5. Ukpong, Cletus. "Insecurity: Abia govt accuses herders of kidnapping". Premium Times. Retrieved 13 March 2022.
  6. Elimian, Adrian (24 February 2023). "Nigerian Presidential Election: State Ratings". Africa Elects. Retrieved 25 February 2023.
  7. "President Tinubu: Predilections and Predictions". Substack. Dataphyte. 11 February 2023. Retrieved 11 February 2023.
  8. "The EiE-SBM 2023 Election forecast: It all hinges on insecurity and turnout". SBM Intelligence. 17 February 2023. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
  9. "Projection: 2023 presidential elections". SBM Intelligence. 15 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
  10. "THISDAY 2023 Election Centre: Why Presidential Run off is Increasingly Likely". ThisDay. 27 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
  11. Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny (12 February 2023). "Who wins 2023 presidential election?". The Nation. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
  12. Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny (19 February 2023). "WHO WINS 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION? | The Nation Newspaper". The Nation Newspaper. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
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