2023 Nigerian presidential election in Osun State

The 2023 Nigerian presidential election in Osun State will be held on 25 February 2023 as part of the nationwide 2023 Nigerian presidential election to elect the president and vice president of Nigeria.[1] Other federal elections, including elections to the House of Representatives and the Senate, will also be held on the same date while state elections will be held two weeks afterward on 11 March.

2023 Nigerian presidential election in Osun State
25 February 2023
Registered1,954,800
 
Nominee Atiku Abubakar Bola Tinubu
Party PDP APC
Home state Adamawa Lagos
Running mate Ifeanyi Okowa Kashim Shettima
Popular vote 354,366 343,945
Percentage 48.33% 46.91%
 
Nominee Peter Obi Rabiu Kwankwaso
Party LP NNPP
Home state Anambra Kano
Running mate Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed Isaac Idahosa
Popular vote 23,283 713
Percentage 3.17% 0.10%
President before election

Muhammadu Buhari
APC

 Elected President

TBD

Background

Osun State is a small, Yoruba-majority southwestern state with vast natural areas and rich cultural heritage but facing an underdeveloped agricultural sector and high debt. The state's 2019 elections were competitiveness with presidential incumbent Muhammadu Buhari barely winning the state and all three Senate races being fairly close. Of the Senate elections, two seats went to the APC and one went to the PDP while the House of Representatives elections went 6 APC and 3 PDP. Contrastly, the APC won a large majority in the State House of Assembly. Two years later, Ademola Adeleke (PDP) unseated Gboyega Oyetola (APC)—the incumbent Governor, winning by 3.5% of the vote;[2] however, the election result was overturned by the tribunal and the court dispute continues as of January 2023.[3][4]

Polling
Polling organisation/client Fieldwork
date		 Sample
size		 Others Undecided Undisclosed Not voting
Tinubu
APC		 Obi
LP		 Kwankwaso
NNPP		 Abubakar
PDP
BantuPage January 2023 N/A 18% 8% 0% 21% – 40% 4% 10%
Nextier
(Osun crosstabs of national poll)		 27 January 2023 N/A 17.6% 19.1% – 76% 2.9% – – –
SBM Intelligence for EiE
(Osun crosstabs of national poll)		 22 January-6 February 2023 N/A 2% 7% – 1% – 89% – –

Projections
Source Projection As of
Africa Elects[lower-alpha 1][5] Likely Tinubu 24 February 2023
Dataphyte[lower-alpha 2][6]
Tinubu: 38.27% 11 February 2023
Obi: 19.99%
Abubakar: 25.18%
Others: 16.56%
Enough is Enough-
SBM Intelligence[lower-alpha 3][7]		 Tinubu 17 February 2023
SBM Intelligence[lower-alpha 4][8] Abubakar 15 December 2022
ThisDay[lower-alpha 5][9]
Tinubu: 35% 27 December 2022
Obi: 5%
Kwankwaso: 5%
Abubakar: 35%
Others/Undecided: 20%
The Nation[lower-alpha 6][10][11] Tinubu 12-19 February 2023

General election

Results
2023 Nigerian presidential election in Osun State
Party Candidate Votes %
A Christopher Imumolen
AA Hamza al-Mustapha
ADP Yabagi Sani
APP Osita Nnadi
AAC Omoyele Sowore
ADC Dumebi Kachikwu
APC Bola Tinubu
APGA Peter Umeadi
APM Princess Chichi Ojei
BP Sunday Adenuga
LP Peter Obi
NRM Felix Johnson Osakwe
NNPP Rabiu Kwankwaso
PRP Kola Abiola
PDP Atiku Abubakar
SDP Adewole Adebayo
YPP Malik Ado-Ibrahim
ZLP Dan Nwanyanwu
Total votes 100.00%
Invalid or blank votes N/A
Turnout

By senatorial district

The results of the election by senatorial district.

Senatorial District Bola Tinubu
APC		 Peter Obi
LP		 Rabiu Kwankwaso
NNPP		 Atiku Abubakar
PDP		 Others Total
Valid Votes
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Osun Central
Senatorial District[lower-alpha 7] 		TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Osun East
Senatorial District[lower-alpha 8] 		TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Osun West
Senatorial District[lower-alpha 9] 		TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD

By federal constituency

The results of the election by federal constituency.

Federal Constituency Bola Tinubu
APC		 Peter Obi
LP		 Rabiu Kwankwaso
NNPP		 Atiku Abubakar
PDP		 Others Total
Valid Votes
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Atakunmosa East/Atakunmosa West/
Ilesa East/Ilesa West
Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 10] 		TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Ayedaade/Isokan/Irewole
Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 11] 		TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Aiyedire/Iwo/Ola-Oluwa
Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 12] 		TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Boluwaduro/Ifedayo/Ila
Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 13] 		TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Ede North/Ede South/Egbedore/Ejigbo
Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 14] 		TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Ife Central/Ife East/Ife North/Ife South
Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 15] 		TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Irepodun/Olorunda/Osogbo/Orolu
Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 16] 		TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Obokun/Oriade
Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 17] 		TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Odo-Otin/Boripe/Ifelodun
Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 18] 		TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD

By local government area

The results of the election by local government area.

LGA Bola Tinubu
APC		 Peter Obi
LP		 Rabiu Kwankwaso
NNPP		 Atiku Abubakar
PDP		 Others Total
Valid Votes		 Turnout
Percentage
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Aiyedaade TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Aiyedire TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Atakunmosa East TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Atakunmosa West TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Boluwaduro TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Boripe TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Ede North TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Ede South TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Egbedore TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Ejigbo TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Ife Central TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Ife East TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Ife North TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Ife South TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Ifedayo TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Ifelodun TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Ila TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Ilesa East TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Ilesa West TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Irepodun TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Irewole TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Isokan TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Iwo TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Obokun TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Odo Otin TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Ola Oluwa TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Olorunda TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Oriade TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Osogbo TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %

See also

Notes
  1. Africa Elects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
  2. Dataphyte projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
  3. EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
  4. SBM projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Too close to call" (TCC).
  5. ThisDay projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
  6. The Nation projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Battlegrounds."
  7. Comprising the local government areas of Boluwaduro, Boripe, Ifedayo, Ifelodun, Ila, Irepodun, Odo Otin, Olorunda, Orolu, and Osogbo.
  8. Comprising the local government areas of Atakunmosa East, Atakunmosa West, Ife Central, Ife East, Ife North, Ife South, Ilesa East, Ilesa West, Obokun, and Oriade.
  9. Comprising the local government areas of Aiyedaade, Aiyedire, Ede North, Ede South, Egbedore, Ejigbo, Irewole, Isokan, Iwo, and Ola-Oluwa.
  10. Comprising the local government areas of Atakunmosa East, Atakunmosa West, Ilesa East, and Ilesa West.
  11. Comprising the local government areas of Aiyedaade, Irewole, and Isokan.
  12. Comprising the local government areas of Aiyedire, Iwo, and Ola Oluwa.
  13. Comprising the local government areas of Boluwaduro, Ifedayo, and Ila.
  14. Comprising the local government areas of Ede North, Ede South, Egbedore, and Ejigbo.
  15. Comprising the local government areas of Ife Central, Ife East, Ife North, and Ife South.
  16. Comprising the local government areas of Irepodun, Osun, Olorunda, Orolu, and Osogbo.
  17. Comprising the local government areas of Obokun and Oriade.
  18. Comprising the local government areas of Boripe, Ifelodun, and Odo Otin.

References
  1. Jimoh, Abbas (26 February 2022). "INEC Sets New Dates For 2023 General Elections". Daily Trust. Retrieved 26 February 2022.
  2. Independent National Electoral Commission [@inecnigeria] (17 July 2022). "Declaration of Result of the Osun State Governorship Election, held on Saturday 16th July 2022" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  3. Ogundapo, Abdulqudus (27 January 2023). "UPDATED: Osun tribunal sacks Adeleke declares Oyetola governor". Premium Times. Retrieved 27 January 2023.
  4. "Osun Governorship: Adeleke rejects Tribunal ruling, heads to Appeal Court". Premium Times. 27 January 2023. Retrieved 27 January 2023.
  5. Elimian, Adrian (24 February 2023). "Nigerian Presidential Election: State Ratings". Africa Elects. Retrieved 25 February 2023.
  6. "President Tinubu: Predilections and Predictions". Substack. Dataphyte. 11 February 2023. Retrieved 11 February 2023.
  7. "The EiE-SBM 2023 Election forecast: It all hinges on insecurity and turnout". SBM Intelligence. 17 February 2023. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
  8. "Projection: 2023 presidential elections". SBM Intelligence. 15 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
  9. "THISDAY 2023 Election Centre: Why Presidential Run off is Increasingly Likely". ThisDay. 27 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
  10. Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny. "Who wins 2023 presidential election?". The Nation. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
  11. Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny (19 February 2023). "WHO WINS 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION? | The Nation Newspaper". The Nation Newspaper. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
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