2023 Jigawa State gubernatorial election

The 2023 Jigawa State gubernatorial election took place on 18th of March 2023, to elect the Governor of Jigawa State, concurrent with elections to the Jigawa State House of Assembly as well as twenty-seven other gubernatorial elections and elections to all other state houses of assembly.[1][2] The election—which was postponed from its original 11 March date—was later scheduled to hold three weeks after the presidential election and National Assembly elections.[3] Incumbent APC Governor Mohammed Badaru Abubakar is term-limited and cannot seek re-election to a third term.

2023 Jigawa State gubernatorial election
18 March 2023
Registered2,351,298
 
Nominee Umar Namadi Aminu Ibrahim Ringim Mustapha Sule Lamido
Party APC NNPP PDP
Running mate Aminu Usman Abdulaziz Usman Babandi Ibrahim Gumel
Governor before election

Mohammed Badaru Abubakar
APC

 Elected Governor

To be determined
To be determined

Party primaries were scheduled for between 4 April and 9 June 2022 with the Peoples Democratic Party nominating Mustapha Sule Lamido—businessman and son of former Governor Sule Lamido—on 25 May while the All Progressives Congress nominated Deputy Governor Umar Namadi on 26 May and the smaller New Nigeria Peoples Party nominated former commissioner Aminu Ibrahim Ringim unopposed on 6 June.[4][5][6]

Electoral system

The Governor of Jigawa State is elected using a modified two-round system. To be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive the plurality of the vote and over 25% of the vote in at least two-thirds of state local government areas. If no candidate passes this threshold, a second round will be held between the top candidate and the next candidate to have received a plurality of votes in the highest number of local government areas.

Background

Jigawa State is a northwestern state mainly inhabited by ethnic Hausas and Fulanis. It has a growing economy but is facing an underdeveloped agricultural sector, desertification, and low education rates.

Politically, the 2019 elections confirmed the state's status as one of the most staunchly APC states in the nation as both Buhari and Abubakar won the state by wide margins and every single legislative seat on the senatorial, House of Representatives, and House of Assembly levels were carried by APC nominees. At the beginning of his term, Abubakar said his administration would focus on youth empowerment, human development, and social services.[7] In terms of his performance, Abubakar was praised for his financial prudence but was criticized for frequent absences from Dutse and a lack of government transparency along with going on vacation amid deadly floods in September 2022.[8][9][10]

Primary elections

The primaries, along with any potential challenges to primary results, were to take place between 4 April and 3 June 2022 but the deadline was extended to 9 June.[2][11] According to some groups from the state's northeastern senatorial district, an informal zoning gentlemen's agreement sets the North-East to produce the next governor as since the state's creation in 1991, all Jigawa governors have come from either the South-West or North-West senatorial districts.[12] While none of the major parties formally zoned their nominations, the APC nominated a northeasterner while the NNPP and PDP did not.

All Progressives Congress
On 20 April 2022, the APC National Executive Committee announced the party's schedule for gubernatorial primaries, setting its expression of interest form price at ₦10 million and nomination form price at ₦40 million with a 50% nomination form discount for candidates younger than 40 while women and candidates with disabilities get free nomination forms. Forms were to be sold from 26 April to 6 May until the deadline was later extended to 10 May then 12 May.[13] After the submission of nomination forms by 13 May, candidates were screened by a party committee on 14 and 15 May while 16 May was the date for the screening appeal process.[14] Ward congresses and LGA congresses were set for between 7 and 9 May to elect delegates for the primary. Candidates approved by the screening process advanced to a primary set for 26 May, in concurrence with other APC gubernatorial primaries; challenges to the result could be made the next day.[15][16][17][18]

The night before the primary, Governor Mohammed Badaru Abubakar asked candidates to pick a consensus candidate amongst themselves but the aspirants rejected his request.[19] The next day, nine candidates continued to an indirect primary in Kazaure that ended with Umar Namadi—Deputy Governor and former Commissioner for Finance—emerging as the APC nominee after results showed Namadi winning over 85% of the delegates' votes. In his acceptance speech, Namadi thanked Abubakar before extending an olive branch to his former opponents.[5] After the primary, Abubakar formed a party reconciliation committee in an attempt to stave off potential defections.[20] In June, Namadi's running mate was announced as Aminu Usman—a serving commissioner.[21] Despite the reconciliation attempts, former aspirant Farouk Adamu Aliyu challenged the primary results in court; in September, his suit was dismissed by a Federal High Court.[22] By January, the court battle had reached the Supreme Court which ruled in favor of Namadi on 13 January.[23][24]

Nominated
  • Umar Namadi: Deputy Governor (2019–present) and Commissioner for Finance (2015–2019)[25][26][12][5]
    • Running mate—Aminu Usman: Commissioner for Works and Transport[21]

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Results

Candidates' vote share

  Umar Namadi (86.04%)
  Mohammed Sabo Nakudu (7.48%)
  Other candidates (6.53%)
APC primary results[5]
Party Candidate Votes %
APC Umar Namadi 1,220 86.04%
APC Mohammed Sabo Nakudu 106 7.48%
APC Ibrahim Hassan Hadejia 58 4.09%
APC Aminu Kani 16 1.13%
APC Farouk Adamu Aliyu 13 0.92%
APC Sani Hussaini Garin Gabas 5 0.35%
APC Ahmad Mahmoud 0 0.00%
APC Abba Muktar 0 0.00%
APC Ahmed Zakari 0 0.00%
Total votes 1,418 100.00%
Invalid or blank votes 2 N/A
Turnout 1,420 Unknown

New Nigeria Peoples Party

The national NNPP announced its primary schedule on 12 April 2022, setting its expression of interest form price at ₦1 million and the nomination form price at ₦10 million with forms being sold from 10 April to 5 May.[29] The rest of the timetable was revised on 19 May; after the purchase and submission of forms, gubernatorial candidates are to be screened by a party committee on 28 May while the screening appeal process is slated for the next day. Ward congresses are set for 22 April to elect delegates for the primary. Candidates approved by the screening process will advance to a primary set for 30 May, in concurrence with all other NNPP gubernatorial primaries; challenges to the result can be made the next day.[30] The primary date was again shifted, to 6 June.

In early 2022, Aminu Ibrahim Ringim (a former state cabinet official who was the PDP gubernatorial nominee in 2015 and 2019) and many of his allies defected from the PDP to join the NNPP amid a surge in NNPP ranks after former Kano State Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso joined the party. On the primary date, Ibrahim Ringim won unopposed.[6] In July, the party's deputy gubernatorial nominee was announced as Abdulaziz Usman—a former Senator.[31]

Nominated

Results
NNPP primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
NNPP Aminu Ibrahim Ringim 861 100.00%
Total votes 861 100.00%
Turnout 861 100.00%

People’s Democratic Party
On 16 March 2022, the national PDP announced its gubernatorial primaries' schedule, setting its expression of interest form price at ₦1 million and the nomination form price at ₦20 million with a 50% discount for candidates between 25 and 30. Forms were to be sold until 1 April but the party later extended the deadline four times before reaching a final deadline of 22 April. After the submission of nomination forms by 25 April, candidates were screened by a party committee on 28 April while 2 May was the rescheduled date for the screening appeal process. Ward congresses were set for 29 April and LGA congresses were rescheduled for 10 May to elect delegates for the primary.[33] Candidates approved by the screening process advanced to a primary set for 25 May, in concurrence with all other PDP gubernatorial primaries; challenges to the result could be made in the following days.[34][35]

On the date of the primary, former MHR Bashir Adamu withdrew from the race but pledged his support to whichever candidate was nominated by the party.[36] When vote collation was completed later that day, Mustapha Sule Lamido emerged victorious with 829 votes to 0 votes for his opponent Saleh Shehu Hadejia; three votes were invalid.[4] On 11 June, Lamido picked state PDP Chairman Babandi Ibrahim Gumel as his running mate.[37]

Nominated

Eliminated in primary
  • Saleh Shehu Hadejia: former Minister of State for Works[39][4]

Withdrew

Declined

Results
PDP primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
PDP Mustapha Sule Lamido 829 100.00%
PDP Hazeem Gbolarumi 0 0.00%
Total votes 829 100.00%
Invalid or blank votes 3 N/A
Turnout 832 Unknown

Minor parties

Campaign

After the primaries, pundits noted the contrast between Namadi, who was hand-picked by outgoing Governor Mohammed Badaru Abubakar, and Lamido—who was backed by his father, former Governor Sule Lamido. For Namadi, observers focused on the inability for incumbent Jigawa governors to get their hand-picked successors to succeed them while Lamido's lack of governing experience was also mentioned. Thus the race was framed as a potential enthronement of Abubakar as a political godfather if Namadi won or the entrenchment of a political dynasty if Lamido won.[42]

By 2023, attention largely switched to the presidential election on 25 February. In the election, Jigawa State narrowly voted for Bola Tinubu (APC); Tinubu won 45.8% of the vote, beating the 42.0% of Atiku Abubakar (PDP) and the 10.7% of Rabiu Kwankwaso (NNPP). Although the close result was unsurprising as projections had noted a close race, the totals led to increased attention on the gubernatorial race as it was a much slimmer APC margin of victory than in recent previous elections. Gubernatorial campaign analysis from after the presidential election noted the role of the Lamido family in the state PDP's renewal while observing increasingly tense regional dynamics between emirate communities. Pundits also observed that the boost of APC incumbency had been counteracted by largescale internal disunity in the state APC.[43][44] Nevertheless, the EiE-SBM forecast projected Namadi to win based on the state's "settled" political dynamics.[45]

Projections
Source Projection As of
Africa Elects[lower-alpha 2][46] Lean Namadi 17 March 2023
Enough is Enough-
SBM Intelligence[lower-alpha 3][45]		 Namadi 2 March 2023

Conduct

Electoral timetable

On 26 February 2022, the Independent National Electoral Commission released the timetable, setting out key dates and deadlines for the election.[47] Months later on 27 May 2022, INEC made a slight revision to the timetable, allowing parties extra time to conduct primaries.[48]

  • 28 February 2022 – Publication of Notice of Election
  • 4 April 2022 – First day for the conduct of party primaries
  • 9 June 2022[lower-alpha 4] – Final day for the conduct of party primaries, including the resolution of disputes arising from them
  • 1 July 2022 – First day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
  • 15 July 2022 – Final day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
  • 12 October 2022 – Commencement of the official campaign period
  • 16 March 2023[lower-alpha 5] – Final day of the official campaign period

General election

Results
2023 Jigawa State gubernatorial election
Party Candidate Votes %
A Binta Yahaya Umar
ADP Sulaiman Yusuf Ibrahim
ADC Sani Muhammad
APC Umar Namadi
APGA Ahmed Yero
LP Abdullahi Tsoho Garba[lower-alpha 1]
NNPP Aminu Ibrahim Ringim
NRM Hassan Ibrahim Aminu
PDP Mustapha Sule Lamido
PRP Ahmed Adamu Kaugama
SDP Ahmed Bello Ibrahim
YPP Suleiman Abdullahi
Total votes 100.00%
Turnout

By senatorial district

The results of the election by senatorial district.

Senatorial District Umar Namadi
APC		 Aminu Ibrahim Ringim
NNPP		 Mustapha Sule Lamido
PDP		 Others Total Valid Votes
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Jigawa North-East Senatorial District[lower-alpha 6] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Jigawa North-West Senatorial District[lower-alpha 7] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Jigawa South-West Senatorial District[lower-alpha 8] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD

By federal constituency

The results of the election by federal constituency.

Federal Constituency Umar Namadi
APC		 Aminu Ibrahim Ringim
NNPP		 Mustapha Sule Lamido
PDP		 Others Total Valid Votes
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Babura/Garki Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 9] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Birnin Kudu/Buji Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 10] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Biriniwa/Guri/Kirikasamma Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 11] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Dutse/Kiyawa Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 12] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Gagarawa/Gumel/Maigatari/Sule Tankarkar Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 13] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Gwaram Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 14] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Hadejia/Auyo/Kafin Hausa Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 15] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Kazaure/Roni/Gwiwa/Yankwashi Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 16] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Mallam Madori/Kaugama Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 17] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Jahun/Miga Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 18] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Ringim/Taura Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 19] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD

By local government area

The results of the election by local government area.

LGA Umar Namadi
APC		 Aminu Ibrahim Ringim
NNPP		 Mustapha Sule Lamido
PDP		 Others Total Valid Votes Turnout Percentage
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Auyo TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Babura TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Biriniwa TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Birnin Kudu TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Buji TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Dutse TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Gagarawa TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Garki TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Gumel TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Guri TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Gwaram TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Gwiwa TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Hadejia TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Jahun TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Kafin Hausa TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Kaugama TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Kazaure TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Kiri Kasama TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Kiyawa TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Maigatari TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Malam Madori TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Miga TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Ringim TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Roni TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Sule Tankarkar TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Taura TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Yankwashi TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %


See also

Notes
  1. Garba defected to the APC in January 2023; however, he remained as the LP nominee as it was too late to replace him.[41]
  2. AfricaElects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
  3. EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
  4. The original deadline was 3 June; however, INEC pushed it back to 9 June at the behest of parties.[49]
  5. The original deadline was 9 March; however, INEC pushed it back to 16 March.[50]
  6. Comprising the local government areas of Auyo, Biriniwa, Guri, Hadejia, Kafin Hausa, Kaugama, Kiri Kasama, and Malam Madori.
  7. Comprising the local government areas of Babura, Garki, Gagarawa, Gumel, Gwiwa, Kazaure, Maigatari, Ringim, Ron, Sule Tankarkar, Taura, and Yankwashi.
  8. Comprising the local government areas of Birnin Kudu, Buji, Dutse, Gwaram, Jahun, Kiyawa, and Miga.
  9. Comprising the local government areas of Babura and Garki.
  10. Comprising the local government areas of Birnin Kudu and Buji.
  11. Comprising the local government areas of Biriniwa, Guri, and Kiri Kasama.
  12. Comprising the local government areas of Dutse and Kiyawa.
  13. Comprising the local government areas of Gagarawa, Gumel, Maigatari, and Sule Tankarkar.
  14. Comprising the local government area of Gwaram.
  15. Comprising the local government areas of Auyo, Hadejia, and Kafin Hausa.
  16. Comprising the local government areas of Gwiwa, Kazaure, Roni, and Yankwashi.
  17. Comprising the local government areas of Kaugama and Malam Madori.
  18. Comprising the local government areas of Jahun and Miga.
  19. Comprising the local government areas of Ringim and Taura.

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