2023 Taraba State gubernatorial election

The 2023 Taraba State gubernatorial election will take place on 18 March 2023, to elect the Governor of Taraba State, concurrent with elections to the Taraba State House of Assembly as well as twenty-seven other gubernatorial elections and elections to all other state houses of assembly.[1][2] The election will be held two weeks after the presidential election and National Assembly elections. Incumbent PDP Governor Darius Ishaku is term-limited and cannot seek re-election to a third term.

2023 Taraba State gubernatorial election
18 March 2023
Registered2,022,374
 
Nominee Emmanuel Bwacha Muhammad Sani Yahaya Kefas Agbu
Party APC NNPP PDP
Running mate Iliyasu Kirim Danladi Yakubu Balutu Aminu Abdullahi Alkali
Governor before election

Darius Ishaku
PDP

 Elected Governor

Kefas Agbu
PDP

Party primaries were scheduled for between 4 April and 9 June 2022 with the Peoples Democratic Party nominating Kefas Agbu on 25 May while the All Progressives Congress nominated Senator for Taraba South Emmanuel Bwacha on 26 May.[3][4] Two prolonged court battles challenged the APC primary with one case successfully nullifying the primary through a High Court ruling on 14 November 2022;[5] however, the other case reached higher courts faster and culminated in the Supreme Court also nullifying the primary on 1 February 2023 before ordering a rerun to be conducted.[6][7][8] The APC conducted a new primary on 10 February that resulted in Bwacha winning again.[9]

Electoral system

The Governor of Taraba State is elected using a modified two-round system. To be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive the plurality of the vote and over 25% of the vote in at least two-thirds of state local government areas. If no candidate passes this threshold, a second round will be held between the top candidate and the next candidate to have received a plurality of votes in the highest number of local government areas.

Background

Taraba State is a diverse, agriculture-based state in the Middle Belt that has faced challenges in security as inter-ethnic violence and conflict between herders and farmers heavily affect the state. The overproliferation of weaponry and increased pressure for land along with failures in governance led to the worsening of these clashes in the years ahead of the election.[10]

Politically, the 2019 elections were a mixed bag for both major parties. On the federal level, PDP nominee Atiku Abubakar narrowly won the state but it swung slightly towards Buhari; legislatively, the parties fairly evenly split the Senate seats and won House of Representatives seats. Statewise, Ishaku won re-election by a wide margin and the PDP won a majority in the House of Assembly. At the beginning of Ishaku's second term, he vowed to improve state revenue, revitalise agriculture, and develop security.[11] In terms of his performance, Ishaku was criticized for the initial failure of a 2019 peace meeting between Tiv and Jukun groups and his prolonged absence from the state in 2020.[12][13][14]

Primary elections

The primaries, along with any potential challenges to primary results, were to take place between 4 April and 3 June 2022 but the deadline was extended to 9 June.[2][15] According to some candidates and community groups, an informal zoning gentlemen's agreement sets the Taraba North Senatorial District to have the next governor as no governor has come from the North since 2007. However, no major party officially closed zoned their nominations to non-northerners and both ended up nominating southerners.[16]

All Progressives Congress
On 20 April 2022, the APC National Executive Committee announced the party's schedule for gubernatorial primaries, setting its expression of interest form price at ₦10 million and nomination form price at ₦40 million with a 50% nomination form discount for candidates younger than 40 while women and candidates with disabilities get free nomination forms. Forms were to be sold from 26 April to 6 May until the deadline was later extended to 10 May then 12 May.[17] After the submission of nomination forms by 13 May, candidates were screened by a party committee on 14 and 15 May while 16 May was the date for the screening appeal process.[18] Ward congresses and LGA congresses were set for between 7 and 9 May to elect delegates for the primary. Candidates approved by the screening process advanced to a primary set for 26 May, in concurrence with other APC gubernatorial primaries; challenges to the result could be made the next day.[19][20][21][22]

On the primary date, disputes over the direct primary method and the shooting of a primary committee member forced the committee to suspend the primary.[23][24] After the primary continued and completed on 27 May, Senator Emmanuel Bwacha was declared victor with over 97,000 votes, about 61%; Bwacha called for party unity in his acceptance speech.[4][25] In July, Bwacha selected Iliyasu Kirim—from Karim Lamido in the northern district—as his running mate.[26] Kirim also called for party unity after the nomination.[27] However, David Sabo Kente—a losing aspirant—rejected the results and approached the judiciary for an annulment; on 20 September, a Federal High Court sitting in Jalingo sided with Kente and ordered a new primary to be conducted based on electoral irregularities.[6] The lawsuit of another aspirant—Senator Yusuf Abubakar Yusuf—ended with a High Court sitting in Abuja also voiding the primary on 14 November.[5] Bwacha initiated an appeal against the Jalingo High Court ruling and vowed to also appeal the Abuja High Court ruling.[5] Although the Abuja High Court case remained in litigation, Jalingo High Court case also continued with a Court of Appeal judgment on 24 November relegitimizing the primary.[7] However, Kente appealed that ruling to the Supreme Court which sided with him in a 1 February judgment that definitively ordered a new primary to be held within fourteen days.[8] Kante lauded the court ruling and asked his supporters to await the response of the national party while Bwacha's camp expressed confidence that he would win the rerun.[28] However, the national party did not publicly order a new primary until 9 February, when it communicated to the aspirants that the primary would be held on the next day in Jalingo. The process was disputed by candidates other than Bwacha, who boycotted the exercise and vowed to return to court.[29] In the rerun direct primary, Bwacha won again by a similarly wide margin.[9]

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Results
Annulled primary results

Aspirant' vote share

  Emmanuel Bwacha (62.57%)
  Anthony George Manzo (10.65%)
  Danladi Kifasi (7.82%)
  Yusuf Abubakar Yusuf (6.94%)
  Muhammad Sani Yahaya (6.36%)
  Other aspirants (6.86%)
APC primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
APC Emmanuel Bwacha 97,655 62.57%
APC Anthony George Manzo 16,625 10.65%
APC Danladi Kifasi 12,202 7.82%
APC Yusuf Abubakar Yusuf 10,828 6.94%
APC Muhammad Sani Yahaya 9,929 6.36%
APC David Sabo Kente 5,836 3.74%
APC Saleh Mamman 4,875 3.12%
Total votes 156,082 100.00%
Turnout 156,082 57.93%

Aspirants' vote share

  Emmanuel Bwacha (98.98%)
  Yusuf Abubakar Yusuf (1.02%)
APC rerun primary results[9]
Party Candidate Votes %
APC Emmanuel Bwacha 778 98.98%
APC Yusuf Abubakar Yusuf 8 1.02%
APC Other aspirants 0 0.00%
Total votes 786 100.00%

People's Democratic Party

In early 2022, state PDP Chairman Kefas Agbu said that the party would adhere to zoning to the North with later reports stating that both Agbu and Ishaku were against a nominee coming from the South as Ishaku himself is Southern.[16] However, Agbu later said that while the party's position was that the ticket should go to a northerner, the zoning would only be unofficial and aspirants from other regions would not be prevented from contesting.[36] Also, Agbu was criticized for accompanying candidate Victor Bala Kona to purchase his nomination forms along with Ishaku's senatorial forms; the appearance created an assumption that both Agbu and Ishaku were supporting Bala Kona.[37][34]

On 16 March 2022, the national PDP announced its gubernatorial primaries' schedule, setting its expression of interest form price at ₦1 million and the nomination form price at ₦20 million with a 50% discount for candidates between 25 and 30. Forms were to be sold until 1 April but the party later extended the deadline four times before reaching a final deadline of 22 April. After the submission of nomination forms by 25 April, candidates were screened by a party committee on 28 April while 2 May was the rescheduled date for the screening appeal process. Ward congresses were set for 29 April and LGA congresses were rescheduled for 10 May to elect delegates for the primary.[38] Candidates approved by the screening process advanced to a primary set for 25 May, in concurrence with all other PDP gubernatorial primaries; challenges to the result could be made in the following days.[39][40]

Ahead of the primary, there were rumors that Agbu had secretly purchased nomination forms himself; Agbu, from Taraba South, denied the rumors and claimed that his candidacy would go against zoning.[41] However, in the days before the primary, reports emerged that former minister and de facto Taraba PDP leader Theophilus Danjuma planned on imposing Agbu as the nominee.[42] On primary day, the plan was enacted as Agbu suddenly emerged as a candidate and easily won the primary by an 80% margin of victory amid protests from other candidates.[3][43] In the weeks following the primary, two defeated candidates—Jerome Nyame and Hilkiah BubaJoda Mafindi—separately asked courts to disqualify Agbu because Agbu had not purchased forms.[44][45] This legal situation changed in August when the defeated aspirants coalesced around Nyame's suit as Mafindi and Joseph Albasu Kunini joined as interested parties.[46][47] However, the cases were dismissed on 20 September by a High Court then on 25 November by a Court of Appeal.[48][49] By February 2023, the case reached the Supreme Court which also dismissed the case based on technicalities.[50]

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew
  • Damian Dodo: lawyer[36]

Results

Aspirant' vote share

  Kefas Agbu (86.02%)
  Joseph Albasu Kunini (6.02%)
  Other aspirants (7.96%)
PDP primary results[3]
Party Candidate Votes %
PDP Kefas Agbu 443 86.02%
PDP Joseph Albasu Kunini 31 6.02%
PDP Jerome Nyame 24 4.66%
PDP Joel Danlami Ikenya 11 2.14%
PDP Hilkiah BubaJoda Mafindi 6 1.17%
PDP Aminu Ayuba Kotolo 0 0.00%
PDP Victor Bala Kona 0 0.00%
Total votes 515 100.00%
Invalid or blank votes 2 N/A
Turnout 517 92.82

Minor parties

Campaign

As the general election campaign began in June 2022, pundits focused on the major candidates' attempts to reconcile aggrieved members of their own parties in the wake of contentious party primaries. While the APC primary was also disputed, the sudden emergence of Agbu as a PDP candidate was seen as a betrayal as some party members especially due to the previous assurances from Agbu that the plot was not true. It was also noted that both parties disregarded the zoning principle by picking nominees from the southern district instead of the northern district. Again, this controversy was less impactful in the APC as the party had fully opened its primary to all contenders but in the PDP, both Ishaku and then-state party chairman Agbu had promised to nominate a northerner. In the APC, the controversy centered around the primary conduct itself as analysts expect runners-up to leave the party or refuse to support Bwacha.[59]

As campaigning continued into August 2022, the PDP was still beset by primary disputes as the aggrieved aspirants coalesced behind a single lawsuit challenging Agbu's nomination.[46] Another factor was the presidential pardon of corrupt former Governor Jolly Nyame; his release in August swiftly led to speculation on which gubernatorial candidate he would support with a focus on Agbu, Bwacha, and SDP nominee Danladi Baido.[60][61] However, the next month brought a new surprise to the race as Bwacha was removed as APC nominee by a court ruling that annulled its primary.[6] Although the party immediately appealed the ruling, the judgment renewed the APC internal crisis with former aspirants calling for a new primary to be conducted.[62] Although the initial annulment was overturned in late November, the APC crisis had only intensified after another court ruled the primary invalid earlier that month.[7][5] By February, the initial case reached the Supreme Court which ordered the APC to hold a new primary within fourteen days.[8] On 10 February, the party again nominated Bwacha by a wide margin but similarly to the original primary, other aspirants rejected the process.[9]

On 25 February, the presidential election in the state was won by Atiku Abubakar of the PDP. Not long afterwards, the state Christian Association of Nigeria chapter endorsed Agbu in a move that analysts labeled as potentially impactful.[63] Pundits also noted the impacts of NNPP nominee Muhammad Sani Yahaya and LP nominee Joel Danlami Ikenya in the final stretch of campaigning in addition to ethnic and religious identity politics.[64][65][66]

Projections
Source Projection As of
Africa Elects[lower-alpha 1][67] Lean Agbu 17 March 2023
Enough is Enough-
SBM Intelligence[lower-alpha 2][68]		 Agbu 2 March 2023

Conduct

Electoral timetable

On 26 February 2022, the Independent National Electoral Commission released the timetable, setting out key dates and deadlines for the election.[69] Months later on 27 May 2022, INEC made a slight revision to the timetable, allowing parties extra time to conduct primaries.[70]

  • 28 February 2022 – Publication of Notice of Election
  • 4 April 2022 – First day for the conduct of party primaries
  • 9 June 2022[lower-alpha 3] – Final day for the conduct of party primaries, including the resolution of disputes arising from them
  • 1 July 2022 – First day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
  • 15 July 2022 – Final day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
  • 12 October 2022 – Commencement of the official campaign period
  • 16 March 2023[lower-alpha 4] – Final day of the official campaign period

General election

Results
2023 Taraba State gubernatorial election
Party Candidate Votes %
A Hamman Muhammed Mbali
AA Abubakar Sadiq Gambo
ADP Hamman Abubakar Mustapha
APP Danjuma Umaru
AAC David Charima
ADC Ibrahim Aminu
APM Gideon Wunuji Adda
APC Emmanuel Bwacha
APGA Sunday Fudemure Manu
BP Kabiru Bala
LP Joel Danlami Ikenya
NNPP Muhammad Sani Yahaya
NRM Ibrahim Sani
PDP Kefas Agbu
PRP Josiah Wukari Wasa
SDP Danladi Baido
YPP Sa'adu Abubakar Hassan
ZLP Bello Adamu
Total votes 100.00%
Invalid or blank votes N/A
Turnout

By senatorial district

The results of the election by senatorial district.

Senatorial District Emmanuel Bwacha
APC		 Kefas Agbu
PDP		 Others Total Valid Votes
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Taraba Central Senatorial District[lower-alpha 5] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Taraba North Senatorial District[lower-alpha 6] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Taraba South Senatorial District[lower-alpha 7] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD

By federal constituency

The results of the election by federal constituency.

Federal Constituency Emmanuel Bwacha
APC		 Kefas Agbu
PDP		 Others Total Valid Votes
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Bali/Gassol Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 8] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Jalingo/Yorro/Zing Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 9] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Karim Lamido/Lau/Ardo-Kola Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 10] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Sardauna/Gashaka/Kurmi Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 11] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Takum/Donga/Ussa Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 12] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Wukari/Ibi Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 13] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD

By local government area

The results of the election by local government area.

LGA Emmanuel Bwacha
APC		 Kefas Agbu
PDP		 Others Total Valid Votes Turnout Percentage
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Ardo Kola TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Bali TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Donga TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Gashaka TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Gassol TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Ibi TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Jalingo TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Karim Lamido TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Kurmi TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Lau TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Sardauna TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Takum TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Ussa TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Wukari TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Yorro TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Zing TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %

See also

Notes
  1. AfricaElects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
  2. EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
  3. The original deadline was 3 June; however, INEC pushed it back to 9 June at the behest of parties.[71]
  4. The original deadline was 9 March; however, INEC pushed it back to 16 March.[72]
  5. Comprising the local government areas of Bali, Gashaka, Gassol, Kurmi, and Sardauna.
  6. Comprising the local government areas of Ardo Kola, Jalingo, Karim Lamido, Lau, Yorro, and Zing.
  7. Comprising the local government areas of Donga, Ibi, Takum, Ussa, and Wukari.
  8. Comprising the local government areas of Bali and Gassol Gassol.
  9. Comprising the local government areas of Jalingo, Yorro, and Zing.
  10. Comprising the local government areas of Ardo Kola, Karim Lamido, and Lau.
  11. Comprising the local government areas of Gashaka, Kurmi, and Sardauna.
  12. Comprising the local government areas of Donga, Takum, and Ussa.
  13. Comprising the local government areas of Ibi and Wukari.

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