2023 Nigerian presidential election in Bayelsa State

The 2023 Nigerian presidential election in Bayelsa State will be held on 25 February 2023 as part of the nationwide 2023 Nigerian presidential election to elect the president and vice president of Nigeria.[1] Other federal elections, including elections to the House of Representatives and the Senate, will also be held on the same date while state elections will be held two weeks afterward on 11 March.

2023 Nigerian presidential election in Bayelsa State
25 February 2023[lower-alpha 1]
Opinion polls
Registered1,056,862
Turnout16.38%
 
Nominee Atiku Abubakar Peter Obi Bola Tinubu
Party PDP LP APC
Home state Adamawa Anambra Lagos
Running mate Ifeanyi Okowa Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed Kashim Shettima
Popular vote 68,818 49,975 42,572
Percentage 41.62% 30.23% 25.75%
LGA results

Tinubu:      30–40%      40–50%
Obi:      40–50%      50–60%

Abubakar:      40–50%      50–60%
President before election

Muhammadu Buhari
APC

 Elected President

Bola Tinubu
APC

Background

Bayelsa State is a small state in the South South mainly populated by Ijaw peoples; although its oil reserves make it one of the most resource-rich states in the nation, Bayelsa has faced challenges in security and environmental degradation in large part due to years of systemic corruption and illegal oil bunkering.

Politically, the state's early 2019 elections were categorized as the continuation of the PDP's dominance albeit with the APC making considerable gains by gaining one senate and two House of Representatives seats. The APC also gained ground in the assembly election and Bayelsa also was the state that swung the most towards Buhari in the presidential election, although that could be chalked up to former Governor Goodluck Jonathan no longer being PDP nominee. Later in 2019, the swing towards the APC dramatically increased as its gubernatorial nominee David Lyon won by a large margin but Diri was declared victor after Lyon was disqualified before the inauguration.

Polling
Polling organisation/client Fieldwork
date		 Sample
size		 Others Undecided Undisclosed Not voting
Tinubu
APC		 Obi
LP		 Kwankwaso
NNPP		 Abubakar
PDP
BantuPage January 2023 N/A 9% 27% 2% 13% – 13% 20% 16%
Nextier
(Bayelsa crosstabs of national poll)		 27 January 2023 N/A 11.4% 62.9% – 20.0% – 5.7% – –
SBM Intelligence for EiE
(Bayelsa crosstabs of national poll)		 22 January-6 February 2023 N/A 9% 41% – 47% – 2% – –

Projections
Source Projection As of
Africa Elects[lower-alpha 2][2] Lean Obi 24 February 2023
Dataphyte[lower-alpha 3][3]
Tinubu: 20.87% 11 February 2023
Obi: 45.03%
Abubakar: 28.05%
Others: 6.05%
Enough is Enough-
SBM Intelligence[lower-alpha 4][4]		 Abubakar 17 February 2023
SBM Intelligence[lower-alpha 5][5] Abubakar 15 December 2022
ThisDay[lower-alpha 6][6]
Tinubu: 20% 27 December 2022
Obi: 30%
Kwankwaso: –
Abubakar: 40%
Others/Undecided: 10%
The Nation[lower-alpha 7][7][8] Abubakar 12-19 February 2023

General election

Results
2023 Nigerian presidential election in Bayelsa State
Party Candidate Votes %
A Christopher Imumolen
AA Hamza al-Mustapha
ADP Yabagi Sani
APP Osita Nnadi
AAC Omoyele Sowore
ADC Dumebi Kachikwu
APC Bola Tinubu
APGA Peter Umeadi
APM Princess Chichi Ojei
BP Sunday Adenuga
LP Peter Obi
NRM Felix Johnson Osakwe
NNPP Rabiu Kwankwaso
PRP Kola Abiola
PDP Atiku Abubakar
SDP Adewole Adebayo
YPP Malik Ado-Ibrahim
ZLP Dan Nwanyanwu
Total votes 100.00%
Invalid or blank votes N/A
Turnout

By senatorial district

The results of the election by senatorial district.

Senatorial District Bola Tinubu
APC		 Peter Obi
LP		 Rabiu Kwankwaso
NNPP		 Atiku Abubakar
PDP		 Others Total Valid Votes
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Bayelsa Central Senatorial District[lower-alpha 8] 18,438 21.72% 30,056 35.40% 413 0.49% 34,560 40.70% 1,439 1.69% 84,906
Bayelsa East Senatorial District[lower-alpha 9] 15,133 35.79% 10,801 25.55% 87 0.21% 14,905 35.26% 1,351 3.20% 42,277
Bayelsa West Senatorial District[lower-alpha 10] 9,001 23.60% 9,118 23.91% 40 0.10% 19,353 50.74% 630 1.65% 38,142
Totals 42,572 25.75% 49,975 30.23% 540 0.33% 68,818 41.62% 3,420 2.07% 165,325

By federal constituency

The results of the election by federal constituency.

Federal Constituency Bola Tinubu
APC		 Peter Obi
LP		 Rabiu Kwankwaso
NNPP		 Atiku Abubakar
PDP		 Others Total Valid Votes
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Brass/Nembe Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 11] 6,689 33.68% 4,080 20.54% 40 0.20% 8,543 43.02% 508 2.56% 19,860
Ogbia Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 12] 8,444 37.67% 6,721 29.98% 47 0.21% 6,362 28.38% 843 3.76% 22,417
Sagbama/Ekeremor Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 13] 9,001 23.60% 9,118 23.91% 40 0.10% 19,353 50.74% 630 1.65% 38,142
Southern Ijaw Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 14] 7,650 32.22% 4,400 18.53% 190 0.80% 11,280 47.51% 224 0.94% 23,744
Yenagoa/Kolokuna/Opokuma Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 15] 10,788 17.64% 25,656 41.95% 223 0.36% 23,280 38.06% 1,215 1.99% 61,162
Totals 42,572 25.75% 49,975 30.23% 540 0.33% 68,818 41.62% 3,420 2.07% 165,325

By local government area

The results of the election by local government area.

LGA Bola Tinubu
APC		 Peter Obi
LP		 Rabiu Kwankwaso
NNPP		 Atiku Abubakar
PDP		 Others Total Valid Votes Turnout Percentage
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Brass[9] 3,684 29.70% 2,273 18.32% 25 0.20% 6,209 50.06% 213 1.72% 12,404 13.86%
Ekeremor[10] 4,398 24.00% 4,489 24.49% 16 0.09% 9,113 49.73% 310 1.69% 18,326 13.71%
Kolokuma/Opokuma[11] 4,137 24.63% 3,395 20.21% 34 0.20% 8,972 53.42% 259 1.54% 16,797 26.65%
Nembe[12] 3,005 40.30% 1,807 24.24% 15 0.20% 2,334 31.30% 295 3.96% 7,456 7.81%
Ogbia[13] 8,444 37.67% 6,721 29.98% 47 0.21% 6,362 28.38% 843 3.76% 22,417 20.89%
Sagbama[14] 4,603 23.23% 4,629 23.36% 24 0.12% 10,240 51.68% 320 1.61% 19,816 17.13%
Southern Ijaw[15] 7,650 32.22% 4,400 18.53% 190 0.80% 11,280 47.51% 224 0.94% 23,744 13.50%
Yenagoa[16] 6,651 14.99% 22,261 50.18% 189 0.43% 14,308 32.25% 956 2.15% 44,365 21.41%
Totals 42,572 25.75% 49,975 30.23% 540 0.33% 68,818 41.62% 3,420 2.07% 165,325 16.38%

See also

Notes
  1. Due to disruptions on Election Day, INEC postponed voting in 141 polling units to 26 February.
  2. Africa Elects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
  3. Dataphyte projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
  4. EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
  5. SBM projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Too close to call" (TCC).
  6. ThisDay projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
  7. SBM projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Battlegrounds."
  8. Comprising the local government areas of Kolokuma/Opokuma, Southern Ijaw, and Yenagoa.
  9. Comprising the local government areas of Brass, Ogbia, and Nembe.
  10. Comprising the local government areas of Ekeremor and Sagbama.
  11. Comprising the local government areas of Brass and Nembe.
  12. Comprising the local government area of Ogbia.
  13. Comprising the local government areas of Ekeremor and Sagbama.
  14. Comprising the local government areas of Southern Ijaw.
  15. Comprising the local government areas of Kolokuma/Opokuma and Yenagoa.

References
  1. Jimoh, Abbas (26 February 2022). "INEC Sets New Dates For 2023 General Elections". Daily Trust. Retrieved 26 February 2022.
  2. Elimian, Adrian. "Nigerian Presidential Election: State Ratings". Africa Elects. Retrieved 25 February 2023.
  3. "President Tinubu: Predilections and Predictions". Substack. Dataphyte. Retrieved 11 February 2023.
  4. "The EiE-SBM 2023 Election forecast: It all hinges on insecurity and turnout". SBM Intelligence. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
  5. "Projection: 2023 presidential elections". SBM Intelligence. 15 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
  6. "THISDAY 2023 Election Centre: Why Presidential Run off is Increasingly Likely". ThisDay. 27 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
  7. Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny. "Who wins 2023 presidential election?". The Nation. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
  8. Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny (19 February 2023). "WHO WINS 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION? | The Nation Newspaper". The Nation Newspaper. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
  9. Channels TV [@channelstv] (27 February 2023). "BRASS LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  10. Channels TV [@channelstv] (27 February 2023). "EKEREMOR LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  11. Channels TV [@channelstv] (27 February 2023). "BREAKDOWN OF RESULTS FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION FOR BAYELSA STATE: KOLOKUMA/OPUKUMA LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  12. Channels TV [@channelstv] (27 February 2023). "NEMBE LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  13. Channels TV [@channelstv] (27 February 2023). "OGBIA LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  14. Channels TV [@channelstv] (27 February 2023). "SAGBAMA LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  15. Channels TV [@channelstv] (27 February 2023). "SOUTHERN IJAW LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  16. Channels TV [@channelstv] (27 February 2023). "YENAGOA LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
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