2023 Nigerian Senate elections in Lagos State

After it was confirmed that Tinubu would retire from the Senate, four candidates emerged: Oyinlomo Danmole—former Commissioner for Home Affairs and Culture, Wasiu Eshinlokun Sanni—Deputy Speaker of the House of Assembly and MHA for Lagos Island I, Ademola Rasaq Seriki—former Ambassador to Spain, and Akeem Apatira.[14][15][16] Another potential candidate—House of Assembly Speaker Mudashiru Obasa—was reportedly pushed out of the contest by party leadership and assuaged with a promised return to the HOA Speakership.[17][15] In the primary—held at the Teslim Balogun Stadium in Surulere, Eshinlokun-Sanni defeated runner-up Seriki by 29% margin.[18]

Before the primary, analysts noted three major candidates: Adesunbo Onitiri, Adetokunbo Pearse, and Wale Gomez with an anonymous party chieftain naming Onitiri—the 2019 nominee—as the frontrunner.[15] However, on primary day, Gomez won the nomination amid massive controversy and protests as party officials had allegedly switched venues at the last minute.[25]

On the primary date, an indirect primary in Magodo resulted in the renomination of Abiru unopposed. In his acceptance speech, Abiru praised party members and promised to do more for the district.[27]

On the primary date, four candidates contested an indirect primary in Somolu that ended in Nicholas Akobada winning the nomination after results showed him defeating runner-up Agnes Adenike-Shobajo by an 11-vote margin. However, the primary was marred by controversy over alleged irregularities and a purportedly manipulated delegate list.[30]

Analysis from The Nation in late December 2022 gave the advantage to Abiru, in large part to the relatively little active campaigning conducted by Akobada.[31]

After Adeola announced that he was vacating the seat, the immediate frontrunner in the primary was Musiliu Obanikoro—former Senator and former Minister of State for Defence; however, state party leadership instead backed former Deputy Governor Adejoke Orelope-Adefulire for the seat.[15] However, Orelope-Adefulire did not return the primary forms and suddenly withdrew from the contest, pushing state party leadership to draft another former Deputy Governor—Oluranti Adebule—as a candidate.[33] However, the deadline for candidate entry had already passed and the sudden Adebule candidacy led to controversy.[34] On the primary date, results showed victory for Adebule over Obanikoro by a significant margin of 55%. Adebule thanked delegates in her acceptance speech and promised quality representation.[35] For his part, Obanikoro walked out of the venue and later claimed that Adebule was not eligible to run in the primary.[36][37][38] In an purported attempt to placate Obanikoro, Lagos APC leadership pressured its Eti-Osa Federal Constituency nominee Oyekanmi Elegushi to withdraw for Ibrahim Babajide Obanikoro—Musiliu Obanikoro's son and the runner-up in the Eti-Osa APC primary.[39][40]

Before the primary, observers noted potential issues with both candidates as frontrunner Segun Adewale had previously contested several elections in his native Ekiti State while Yommy Ogungbe is from the Badagry area just like gubernatorial candidate Abdul-Azeez Olajide Adediran; after three terms of Adeola, an anonymous party member surmised that some voters may prefer an indigene senator while pundits doubted that both a senatorial and gubernatorial nominee could emerged from the same area.[15] Reporting also noted Adewale's multiple electoral defeats and legal issues.[43] In the primary, Adewale defeated Ogungbe by a wide margin; in his acceptance speech, Adewale thanked delegates and pledged to work with party members to win the general election.[44]

Analysis from The Guardian in December 2022, labeled Adebule as the frontrunner due to APC strength in the area but noted Adewale's experience in the district.[45] A piece from The Africa Report in January echoed those sentiments; however, it pointed out opportunities for Adewale: namely, the district's high non-indigene population (a PDP-leaning demographic) and Interior Minister Rauf Aregbesola's discontent with his own APC (Aregbesola has large amounts of supporters in Alimosho). Analysts contended that if Aregbesola backed Adewale and/or Adewale successfully convinced most Labour Party supporters to vote for him on the senatorial line, Adewale had a chance.[46]