2023 Plateau State gubernatorial election

The 2023 Plateau State gubernatorial election will take place on 18 March 2023, to elect the Governor of Plateau State, concurrent with elections to the Plateau State House of Assembly as well as twenty-seven other gubernatorial elections and elections to all other state houses of assembly.[1][2] The election—which was postponed from its original 11 March date—will be held three weeks after the presidential election and National Assembly elections.[3] Incumbent APC Governor Simon Lalong is term-limited and cannot seek re-election to a third term.

2023 Plateau State gubernatorial election
18 March 2023
Registered2,789,528
 
Nominee Nentanwe Yilwatda Goshwe Patrick Dakum Caleb Mutfwang
Party APC LP PDP
Running mate Pam Bot-mang Edward Gyang Pwajok Josephine Piyo
Governor before election

Simon Lalong
APC

 Elected Governor

Caleb Mutfwang
PDP

Party primaries were scheduled for between 4 April and 9 June 2022 with the Peoples Democratic Party nominating Caleb Mutfwang—former Mangu Local Government Chairman—on 25 May while the All Progressives Congress nominated Nentawe Yilwatda on 26 May.[4][5] In August, former commissioner Patrick Dakum—a withdrawn aspirant in the APC primary—won the nomination of the Labour Party in a rerun primary.[6]

Electoral system

The Governor of Plateau State is elected using a modified two-round system. To be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive the plurality of the vote and over 25% of the vote in at least two-thirds of state local government areas. If no candidate passes this threshold, a second round will be held between the top candidate and the next candidate to have received a plurality of votes in the highest number of local government areas.

Background

Plateau State is a diverse, agriculture-based state in the North Central; although it has vast natural resources, Plateau has faced issues in security as inter-ethnic violence and conflict between herders and farmers heavily affect the state. The overproliferation of weaponry and increased pressure for land along with failures in governance led to the worsening of these clashes in the years ahead of the election.[7]

Politically, Plateau's 2019 elections were a mixed bag for both major parties. On the federal level, PDP nominee Atiku Abubakar narrowly won the state but it swung slightly towards Buhari; legislatively, the parties fairly evenly split the Senate seats and won House of Representatives seats. Statewise, Lalong won re-election by about 4% of the vote and the APC won a majority in the House of Assembly.

At the beginning of Lalong's second term, he announced that the administration would center its policy on infrastructure development, peace and community security, and sustainable economic growth.[8] In terms of his performance, Lalong was commended for infrastructural development while being criticized for a poor response to increasingly deadly interethnic violence and denying opposition politicians access to government-owned media.[9][10]

Primary elections

The primaries, along with any potential challenges to primary results, were to take place between 4 April and 3 June 2022 but the deadline was extended to 9 June.[2][11] An informal zoning gentlemen's agreement sets the Plateau Central Senatorial District may have the next governor as Plateau Central has not held the governorship since 2007. While the PDP has zoned its nomination to the central district, the APC did not zone its nomination; both parties' nominees came from the Central district.[12][13]

All Progressives Congress
On 20 April 2022, the APC National Executive Committee announced the party's schedule for gubernatorial primaries, setting its expression of interest form price at ₦10 million and nomination form price at ₦40 million with a 50% nomination form discount for candidates younger than 40 while women and candidates with disabilities get free nomination forms. Forms were to be sold from 26 April to 6 May until the deadline was later extended to 10 May then 12 May.[14] After the submission of nomination forms by 13 May, candidates were screened by a party committee on 14 and 15 May while 16 May was the date for the screening appeal process.[15] Ward congresses and LGA congresses were set for between 7 and 9 May to elect delegates for the primary. Candidates approved by the screening process advanced to a primary set for 26 May, in concurrence with other APC gubernatorial primaries; challenges to the result could be made the next day.[16][17][18][19]

Ahead of the primary in May 2022, accusations of imposition divided the state APC as eighteen of nineteen gubernatorial candidates accused incumbent Governor Simon Lalong and his inner circle of unduly supporting the nineteenth candidate, former INEC official Nentawe Yilwatda. The protesting aspirants released a statement threatening to collectively leave the APC if the state party leadership allows Lalong "to subjugate the collective will of members of APC by imposing a candidate on members of the party."[20] After that month's ward congresses, further accusations were tabled against Lalong as a group said he hijacked the congresses to get favourable delegates for the state primary.[21] In the days before the primary, most candidates dropped out in protest of the alleged imposition of Yilwatda resulting in a primary with only four candidates. During the primary, even the remaining opponents to Yilwatda staged a walkout as the votes were cast; Yilwatda won with nearly 90% of the delegates' votes.[22][5] As opposition to his nomination continued, Yilwatda commenced his general election campaign and selected Pam Bot-mang—the Commissioner of Works and son of former Deputy Governor Michael Bot-mang—as his running mate.[23][24] By July, Yilwatda's internal party opponents sued to disqualify his candidacy.[25]

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew
  • Pukat Shehu Barde: former civil servant[32]
  • Sunday Biggs: civil servant[33]
  • Fitka Bilshakka: surveyor
  • Dakas Clement Dakas: barrister[27][34]
  • Patrick Dakum: doctor, CEO of the Institute of Human Virology Nigeria, and former Commissioner for Information[27]
  • Shem Yaute Damisa: former state Accountant General
  • Hezekiah Ayuba Dimka: Senator for Plateau Central (2019–present)[35]
  • Amos Gizo: former House of Representatives member for Kanke/Pankshin/Kanam[36]
  • Kizito Dankat Gukas: former civil servant[37]
  • Danlami Lenkop: medical doctor
  • Yohana Margif: businessman (defected prior to the primary to successfully run in the LP gubernatorial primary)[38]
  • Johnson Podar: businessman
  • Danyaro Dakon Sarpiya: federal government staffer[27]
  • Sipak Shase’et: veterinarian
  • Geoffrey Yilleng: former Kanke Local Government Deputy Chairman

Declined

Results

Candidates' vote share

  Nentawe Yilwatda (87.38%)
  Patrick Dakum (7.62%)
  Other candidates (5.01%)
APC primary results[5]
Party Candidate Votes %
APC Nentawe Yilwatda 803 87.38%
APC Patrick Dakum (withdrawn) 70 7.62%
APC Sonni Gwanle Tyoden 25 2.72%
APC David Victor Dimka 7 0.76%
APC Hezekiah Ayuba Dimka (withdrawn) 6 0.65%
APC Danyaro Dakon Sarpiya (withdrawn) 4 0.43%
APC Fitka Bilshakka (withdrawn) 2 0.22%
APC Garba Pwul 2 0.22%
APC Sunday Biggs (withdrawn) 0 0.00%
Total votes 919 100.00%

People's Democratic Party

In April 2022, Plateau PDP State Executive Committee announced that the party had zoned their gubernatorial nomination to Plateau Central Senatorial District.[41]

On 16 March 2022, the national PDP announced its gubernatorial primaries' schedule, setting its expression of interest form price at ₦1 million and the nomination form price at ₦20 million with a 50% discount for candidates between 25 and 30. Forms were to be sold until 1 April but the party later extended the deadline four times before reaching a final deadline of 22 April. After the submission of nomination forms by 25 April, candidates were screened by a party committee on 28 April while 2 May was the rescheduled date for the screening appeal process. Ward congresses were set for 29 April and LGA congresses were rescheduled for 10 May to elect delegates for the primary.[42] Candidates approved by the screening process advanced to a primary set for 25 May, in concurrence with all other PDP gubernatorial primaries; challenges to the result could be made in the following days.[43][44]

On the primary date, four candidates withdrew while the other fourteen candidates continued to an indirect primary at the Langfield Event Centre in Jos that continued into the early morning of 26 May.[45] It resulted in Caleb Mutfwang emerging as nominee after announced results showed Mutfwang winning with over 42% of the delegates' votes.[4] In the weeks after the primary, Mutfwang held reconciliatory meetings with his former opponents with the intent of ensuring party unity.[46] On 21 June, Mutfwang announced Josephine Chundung Piyo—a fellow former Local Government Chairperson—as his running mate at the State Party Secretariat in Jos.[47]

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Results

Candidates' vote share

  Caleb Mutfwang (42.50%)
  Kefas Ropshik (19.05%)
  Alfred Dapal (15.51%)
  Dauda Wuritka Gotring (14.84%)
  Other candidates (8.10%)
PDP primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
PDP Caleb Mutfwang 252 42.50%
PDP Kefas Ropshik 113 19.05%
PDP Alfred Dapal 92 15.51%
PDP Dauda Wuritka Gotring 88 14.84%
PDP Jonathan Sunday Akuno 16 2.70%
PDP Satu Jatau 9 1.52%
PDP Jerry Gushop 6 1.01%
PDP Shedrack Best 4 0.67%
PDP David Shikfu Parradang 4 0.67%
PDP Mazadu Dader Bako 3 0.51%
PDP John Sunday Sura 3 0.51%
PDP Alex Ladan 2 0.34%
PDP Bagudu Hirse 1 0.17%
PDP Ephraim Lenka Dewa 0 0.00%
Total votes 593 100.00%
Invalid or blank votes 8 N/A
Turnout 601 Unknown

Minor parties

Campaign

The major parties' nominees spent the months of June and July 2022 focusing on the aftermath of party primaries. While Mutfwang held reconciliatory meetings with his former primary opponents and claimed to have unified the state PDP, the alleged imposition of Yilwatda by Lalong precluded reconciliation efforts within the state APC as losing primary candidates formed a factional forum with other aggrieved party members in late July 'to protest the injustice meted out to them during the party primaries.'[46][59] As the focus shifted the general election campaign itself, analysts noted potential dynamics including the APC infighting along with the experience of both Mutfwang and Yilwatda in addition to the more prominent minor party nominees—Sani Dawop (ADP), Samuel Abashe (APGA), Patrick Dakum (LP), and Luka Panpe Yakubu (PRP).[60][61] However, August brought reports of internal crisis in the PDP as rival blocs supportive of either former Governor Jonah Jang or former Senator Jeremiah Useni ratcheted up their dispute amid the national PDP Atiku Abubakar vs. Ezenwo Nyesom Wike crisis.[62]

By November, analysis focused on the power of the APC's incumbency while also noting ethnic and regional dynamics.[63] The next month, pundits noted continued criticism of Yilwatda due to his alleged primary imposition by Lalong along with allegations that Mutfwang did not pay civil servant salaries during his tenure as local government chairman.[64] In the new year, reporting labeled Dakum as a major candidate due to the rise of the state LP and the conclusion of the legal dispute over the LP nomination. With the election's new framing as a three-way contest, punditry focused on each candidate's strengths and weaknesses: for Dakum, the popularity of Peter Obi—the LP presidential nominee—greatly helped his campaign viability but the party still lacks a substantial overarching structure in the state; for Mutfwang, his grassroots network was reportedly strong but the PDP crises had greatly hurt his campaign; and for Yilwatda, his personality and APC incumbency were categorized as boosts but the party crisis and APC unpopularity worked against him.[65]

Much of the last stretch of campaigning was dominated by attention on the presidential election on 25 February. In the election, Plateau State voted for Peter Obi (LP); Abubakar won the state with 42.9% of the vote, beating Bola Tinubu (APC) at 28.2% and Atiku Abubakar (PDP) at 22.4%. With Obi's performance boosting his chances and a favorable Supreme Court that affirmed his candidacy, Dakum gained momentum in the final weeks of campaigning.[66] At the same time, reports noted the competitiveness of the election and the LP's downballot weakness along with Lalong's own senatorial loss.[67][68]

Projections
Source Projection As of
Africa Elects[lower-alpha 1][69] Tossup 17 March 2023
Enough is Enough-
SBM Intelligence[lower-alpha 2][70]		 Mutfwang 2 March 2023

Conduct

Electoral timetable

On 26 February 2022, the Independent National Electoral Commission released the timetable, setting out key dates and deadlines for the election.[71] Months later on 27 May 2022, INEC made a slight revision to the timetable, allowing parties extra time to conduct primaries.[72]

  • 28 February 2022 – Publication of Notice of Election
  • 4 April 2022 – First day for the conduct of party primaries
  • 9 June 2022[lower-alpha 3] – Final day for the conduct of party primaries, including the resolution of disputes arising from them
  • 1 July 2022 – First day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
  • 15 July 2022 – Final day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
  • 12 October 2022 – Commencement of the official campaign period
  • 16 March 2023[lower-alpha 4] – Final day of the official campaign period

General election

Results
2023 Plateau State gubernatorial election
Party Candidate Votes %
A Ankara Michael Umaru
AA Yibaikas Amos Adamu
ADP Sani Dawop
APP Aminu Muhammad Hadi
AAC George Duwa Dimka
ADC Solomon Nandy Chendan
APM Mohammad Abdullahi Dan Baba
APC Nentanwe Yilwatda Goshwe
APGA Samuel Abashe
BP Ibrahim Abdullahi
LP Patrick Dakum
NNPP Alfred Dabwam
NRM Francis Kwapdimma Ritshak
PDP Caleb Mutfwang
PRP Luka Panpe Yakubu
SDP Ponyah Ibrahim Binchak
YPP Butdangman Gontori
ZLP Samuel Langen Kompial
Total votes 100.00%
Invalid or blank votes N/A
Turnout

By senatorial district

The results of the election by senatorial district.

Senatorial District Nentawe Yilwatda
APC		 Caleb Mutfwang
PDP		 Others Total Valid Votes
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Plateau Central Senatorial District[lower-alpha 5] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Plateau North Senatorial District[lower-alpha 6] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Plateau South Senatorial District[lower-alpha 7] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD

By federal constituency

The results of the election by federal constituency.

Federal Constituency Nentawe Yilwatda
APC		 Caleb Mutfwang
PDP		 Others Total Valid Votes
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Barkin Ladi/Riyom Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 8] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Bokkos/Mangu Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 9] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Jos North/Bassa Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 10] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Jos South/Jos East Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 11] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Kanke/Pankshin/Kanam Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 12] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Langtang North/Langtang South Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 13] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Mikang/Qua'an/Pan/Shendam Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 14] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Wase Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 15] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD

By local government area

The results of the election by local government area.

LGA Nentawe Yilwatda
APC		 Caleb Mutfwang
PDP		 Others Total Valid Votes Turnout Percentage
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Barkin Ladi TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Bassa TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Bokkos TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Jos East TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Jos North TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Jos South TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Kanam TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Kanke TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Langtang North TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Langtang South TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Mangu TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Mikang TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Pankshin TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Qua'an Pan TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Riyom TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Shendam TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Wase TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %

See also

Notes
  1. AfricaElects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
  2. EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
  3. The original deadline was 3 June; however, INEC pushed it back to 9 June at the behest of parties.[73]
  4. The original deadline was 9 March; however, INEC pushed it back to 16 March.[74]
  5. Comprising the local government areas of Bokkos, Mangu, Pankshin, Kanke, and Kanam.
  6. Comprising the local government areas of Barkin Ladi, Bassa, Jos East, Jos North, Jos South, and Riyom.
  7. Comprising the local government areas of Langtang North, Langtang South, Mikang, Qua'an Pan, Shendam, and Wase.
  8. Comprising the local government areas of Barkin Ladi and Riyom.
  9. Comprising the local government areas of Bokkos and Mangu.
  10. Comprising the local government areas of Bassa and Jos North.
  11. Comprising the local government areas of Jos East and Jos South.
  12. Comprising the local government areas of Kanam, Kanke, and Pankshin.
  13. Comprising the local government areas of Langtang North and Langtang South.
  14. Comprising the local government areas of Mikang, Qua'an Pan, and Shendam.
  15. Comprising the local government areas of Wase.

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