2023 Nigerian presidential election in Oyo State

The 2023 Nigerian presidential election in Oyo State will be held on 25 February 2023 as part of the nationwide 2023 Nigerian presidential election to elect the president and vice president of Nigeria.[1] Other federal elections, including elections to the House of Representatives and the Senate, will also be held on the same date while state elections will be held two weeks afterward on 11 March.

2023 Nigerian presidential election in Oyo State
25 February 2023
Registered3,276,675
 
Nominee Bola Tinubu Peter Obi
Party APC LP
Home state Lagos Anambra
Running mate Kashim Shettima Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed
 
Nominee Rabiu Kwankwaso Atiku Abubakar
Party NNPP PDP
Home state Kano Adamawa
Running mate Isaac Idahosa Ifeanyi Okowa
President before election

Muhammadu Buhari
APC

 Elected President

TBD

Background

Oyo State is a large, Yoruba-majority southwestern state; the state has vast agricultural and service sectors but it faces large security issues from both inter-ethnic violence and conflict between herders and farmers along with a large number of out-of-school children.[2]

Politically, the 2019 elections in the state were categorized as a large swing towards the PDP as the party's presidential nominee Atiku Abubakar narrowly won the state after Buhari had won it in 2015, PDP nominee Seyi Makinde won the gubernatorial race by 17%, and the PDP gained a majority in the House of Assembly. For the Senate, the APC won back two Senate seats it lost through defections while the PDP gained a APC-held seat; in the House of Representatives, the APC won the majority of the seats.

Polling
Polling organisation/client Fieldwork
date		 Sample
size		 Others Undecided Undisclosed Not voting
Tinubu
APC		 Obi
LP		 Kwankwaso
NNPP		 Abubakar
PDP
BantuPage December 2022 N/A 37% 11% 0% 18% – 21% 3% 10%
Nextier
(Oyo crosstabs of national poll)		 27 January 2023 N/A 14.6% 36.9% 7.8% 27.2% 2.9% 10.7% – –
SBM Intelligence for EiE
(Oyo crosstabs of national poll)		 22 January-6 February 2023 N/A 39% 38% – 13% 1% 10% – –

Projections
Source Projection As of
Africa Elects[lower-alpha 1][3] Lean Tinubu 24 February 2023
Dataphyte[lower-alpha 2][4]
Tinubu: 37.84% 11 February 2023
Obi: 19.95%
Abubakar: 25.11%
Others: 17.10%
Enough is Enough-
SBM Intelligence[lower-alpha 3][5]		 Tinubu 17 February 2023
SBM Intelligence[lower-alpha 4][6] Tinubu 15 December 2022
ThisDay[lower-alpha 5][7]
Tinubu: 40% 27 December 2022
Obi: 15%
Kwankwaso: 10%
Abubakar: 20%
Others/Undecided: 15%
The Nation[lower-alpha 6][8][9] Tinubu 12-19 February 2023

General election

Results
2023 Nigerian presidential election in Oyo State
Party Candidate Votes %
A Christopher Imumolen
AA Hamza al-Mustapha
ADP Yabagi Sani
APP Osita Nnadi
AAC Omoyele Sowore
ADC Dumebi Kachikwu
APC Bola Tinubu
APGA Peter Umeadi
APM Princess Chichi Ojei
BP Sunday Adenuga
LP Peter Obi
NRM Felix Johnson Osakwe
NNPP Rabiu Kwankwaso
PRP Kola Abiola
PDP Atiku Abubakar
SDP Adewole Adebayo
YPP Malik Ado-Ibrahim
ZLP Dan Nwanyanwu
Total votes 100.00%
Invalid or blank votes N/A
Turnout

By senatorial district

The results of the election by senatorial district.

Senatorial District Bola Tinubu
APC		 Peter Obi
LP		 Rabiu Kwankwaso
NNPP		 Atiku Abubakar
PDP		 Others Total Valid Votes
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Oyo Central Senatorial District[lower-alpha 7] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Oyo North Senatorial District[lower-alpha 8] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Oyo South Senatorial District[lower-alpha 9] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD

By federal constituency

The results of the election by federal constituency.

Federal Constituency Bola Tinubu
APC		 Peter Obi
LP		 Rabiu Kwankwaso
NNPP		 Atiku Abubakar
PDP		 Others Total Valid Votes
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Afijio/Atiba/Oyo East/Oyo West Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 10] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Akinyele/Lagelu Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 11] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Atisbo/Saki East/Saki West Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 12] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Egbeda/Ona-Ara Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 13] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Ibadan North East/Ibadan South East Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 14] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Ibadan North Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 15] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Ibadan North West/Ibadan South West Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 16] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Ibarapa Central/Ibarapa North Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 17] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Ibarapa East/Ido Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 18] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Irepo/Olorunsogo/Orelope Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 19] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Iseyin/Kajola/Iwajowa/Itesiwaju Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 20] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Ogbomosho North/Ogbomosho South/Orire Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 21] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Ogo-Oluwa/Surulere Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 22] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Oluyole Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 23] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD

By local government area

The results of the election by local government area.

LGA Bola Tinubu
APC		 Peter Obi
LP		 Rabiu Kwankwaso
NNPP		 Atiku Abubakar
PDP		 Others Total Valid Votes Turnout Percentage
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Afijio TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Akinyele TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Atiba TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Atisbo TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Egbeda TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Ibadan North TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Ibadan North-East TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Ibadan North-West TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Ibadan South-East TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Ibadan South-West TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Ibarapa Central TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Ibarapa East TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Ibarapa North TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Ido TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Irepo TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Iseyin TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Itesiwaju TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Iwajowa TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Kajola TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Lagelu TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Ogbomosho North TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Ogbomosho South TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Ogo Oluwa TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Olorunsogo TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Oluyole TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Ona Ara TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Orelope TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Ori Ire TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Oyo East TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Oyo West TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Saki East TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Saki West TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Surulere TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %

See also

Notes
  1. Africa Elects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
  2. Dataphyte projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
  3. EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
  4. SBM projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Too close to call" (TCC).
  5. ThisDay projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
  6. The Nation projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Battlegrounds."
  7. Comprising the local government areas of Afijio, Akinyele, Atiba, Egbeda, Lagelu, Ogo Oluwa, Oluyole, Ona Ara, Oyo East, Oyo West, and Surulere.
  8. Comprising the local government areas of Atisbo, Irepo, Iseyin, Itesiwaju, Iwajowa, Kajola, Ogbomosho North, Ogbomosho South, Olorunsogo, Orelope, Ori Ire, Saki East, and Saki West.
  9. Comprising the local government areas of Ibadan North, Ibadan North-East, Ibadan North-West, Ibadan South-East, Ibadan South-West, Ibarapa Central, Ibarapa East, Ibarapa North, and Ido.
  10. Comprising the local government areas of Afijio, Atiba, Oyo East, and Oyo West.
  11. Comprising the local government areas of Akinyele and Lagelu.
  12. Comprising the local government areas of Atisbo, Saki East, and Saki West.
  13. Comprising the local government areas of Egbeda and Ona Ara.
  14. Comprising the local government areas of Ibadan North-East and Ibadan South-East.
  15. Comprising the local government areas of Ibadan North.
  16. Comprising the local government areas of Ibadan North-West and Ibadan South-West.
  17. Comprising the local government areas of Ibarapa Central and Ibarapa North.
  18. Comprising the local government areas of Ibarapa East and Ido.
  19. Comprising the local government areas of Irepo, Olorunsogo, and Orelope.
  20. Comprising the local government areas of Iseyin, Itesiwaju, Iwajowa, and Kajola.
  21. Comprising the local government areas of Ogbomosho North, Ogbomosho South, and Ori Ire.
  22. Comprising the local government areas of Ogo Oluwa and Surulere.
  23. Comprising the local government area of Oluyole.

References
  1. Jimoh, Abbas (26 February 2022). "INEC Sets New Dates For 2023 General Elections". Daily Trust. Retrieved 26 February 2022.
  2. Kabir, Adejumo. "INSIDE STORY: How artisans' fight led to ethnic violence in Oyo". Premium Times. Retrieved 17 May 2022.
  3. Elimian, Adrian (24 February 2023). "Nigerian Presidential Election: State Ratings". Africa Elects. Retrieved 25 February 2023.
  4. "President Tinubu: Predilections and Predictions". Substack. Dataphyte. 11 February 2023. Retrieved 11 February 2023.
  5. "The EiE-SBM 2023 Election forecast: It all hinges on insecurity and turnout". SBM Intelligence. 17 February 2023. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
  6. "Projection: 2023 presidential elections". SBM Intelligence. 15 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
  7. "THISDAY 2023 Election Centre: Why Presidential Run off is Increasingly Likely". ThisDay. 27 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
  8. Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny. "Who wins 2023 presidential election?". The Nation. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
  9. Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny (19 February 2023). "WHO WINS 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION? | The Nation Newspaper". The Nation Newspaper. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
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