2023 Nigerian presidential election in Bauchi State

The 2023 Nigerian presidential election in Bauchi State was held on 25 February 2023 as part of the nationwide 2023 Nigerian presidential election to elect the president and vice president of Nigeria.[1] Other federal elections, including elections to the House of Representatives and the Senate, will also be held on the same date while state elections will be held two weeks afterward on 11 March.

2023 Nigerian presidential election in Bauchi State
25 February 2023
Registered2,749,268
 
Nominee Atiku Abubakar Bola Tinubu
Party PDP APC
Home state Adamawa Lagos
Running mate Ifeanyi Okowa Kashim Shettima
Popular vote 319,123 146,977
Percentage 62.57% 28.82%
 
Nominee Peter Obi Rabiu Kwankwaso
Party LP NNPP
Home state Anambra Kano
Running mate Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed Isaac Idahosa
Popular vote 26,160 10,520
Percentage 5.13% 2.06%
President before election

Muhammadu Buhari
APC

 Elected President

TBD

Background

Bauchi State is a large, diverse northeastern state with a growing economy and vast natural areas but facing an underdeveloped yet vital agricultural sector, desertification, and a rising sexual violence epidemic. Politically, the state's 2019 elections were a mixed bag for both major parties. In federal elections, Buhari held the state for the APC albeit with a reduced margin of victory while the APC swept all senate seats by winning back two seats it lost due to defections. Both major parties lost seats in House of Representatives elections to the benefit of the minor People's Redemption Party. On the state level, Mohammed unseated APC incumbent Governor Mohammed Abdullahi Abubakar by a narrow margin as the APC held the House of Assembly.

Polling
Polling organisation/client Fieldwork
date		 Sample
size		 Others Undecided Undisclosed Not voting
Tinubu
APC		 Obi
LP		 Kwankwaso
NNPP		 Abubakar
PDP
BantuPage January 2023 N/A 34% 1% 9% 45% – 9% 2% 0%
Nextier
(Bauchi crosstabs of national poll)		 27 January 2023 N/A 30.0% 1.0% 4.0% 60.0% – 5.0% – –
SBM Intelligence for EiE
(Bauchi crosstabs of national poll)		 22 January-6 February 2023 N/A 27% 18% 10% 18% 1% 5% – –

Projections
Source Projection As of
Africa Elects[lower-alpha 1][2] Likely Abubakar 24 February 2023
Dataphyte[lower-alpha 2][3]
Tinubu: 19.80% 11 February 2023
Obi: 8.07%
Abubakar: 65.12%
Others: 7.00%
Enough is Enough-
SBM Intelligence[lower-alpha 3][4]		 Abubakar 17 February 2023
SBM Intelligence[lower-alpha 4][5] Abubakar 15 December 2022
ThisDay[lower-alpha 5][6]
Tinubu: 20% 27 December 2022
Obi: 5%
Kwankwaso: 15%
Abubakar: 40%
Others/Undecided: 20%
The Nation[lower-alpha 6][7][8] Battleground 12-19 February 2023

General election

Results
2023 Nigerian presidential election in Bauchi State
Party Candidate Votes %
A Christopher Imumolen
AA Hamza al-Mustapha
ADP Yabagi Sani
APP Osita Nnadi
AAC Omoyele Sowore
ADC Dumebi Kachikwu
APC Bola Tinubu
APGA Peter Umeadi
APM Princess Chichi Ojei
BP Sunday Adenuga
LP Peter Obi
NRM Felix Johnson Osakwe
NNPP Rabiu Kwankwaso
PRP Kola Abiola
PDP Atiku Abubakar
SDP Adewole Adebayo
YPP Malik Ado-Ibrahim
ZLP Dan Nwanyanwu
Total votes 100.00%
Invalid or blank votes N/A
Turnout

By senatorial district

The results of the election by senatorial district.

Senatorial District Bola Tinubu
APC		 Peter Obi
LP		 Rabiu Kwankwaso
NNPP		 Atiku Abubakar
PDP		 Others Total Valid Votes
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Bauchi Central Senatorial District[lower-alpha 7] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Bauchi North Senatorial District[lower-alpha 8] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Bauchi South Senatorial District[lower-alpha 9] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD

By federal constituency

The results of the election by federal constituency.

Federal Constituency Bola Tinubu
APC		 Peter Obi
LP		 Rabiu Kwankwaso
NNPP		 Atiku Abubakar
PDP		 Others Total Valid Votes
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Alkaleri/Kirfi Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 10] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Bauchi Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 11] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Darazo/Ganjuwa Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 12] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Dass/Bogoro/Tafawa Balewa Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 13] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Gamawa Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 14] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Jama’are/Itas-Gadau Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 15] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Katagum Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 16] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Misau/Dambam Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 17] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Ningi/Warji Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 18] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Shira/Giade Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 19] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Toro Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 20] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Zaki Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 21] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD

By local government area

The results of the election by local government area.

LGA Bola Tinubu
APC		 Peter Obi
LP		 Rabiu Kwankwaso
NNPP		 Atiku Abubakar
PDP		 Others Total Valid Votes Turnout Percentage
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Alkaleri TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Bauchi TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Bogoro TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Damban TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Darazo TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Dass TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Gamawa TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Ganjuwa TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Giade TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Itas/Gadau TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Jamaare TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Katagum TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Kirfi TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Misau TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Ningi TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Shira TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Tafawa Balewa TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Tipchi TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Toro TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Warji TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Zaki TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %

See also

Notes
  1. Africa Elects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
  2. Dataphyte projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
  3. EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
  4. SBM projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Too close to call" (TCC).
  5. ThisDay projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
  6. SBM projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Battlegrounds."
  7. Comprising the local government areas of Damban, Darazo, Ganjuwa, Misau, Ningi, and Warji.
  8. Comprising the local government areas of Gamawa, Giade, Itas/Gadau, Jamaare, Katagum, Shira, and Zaki.
  9. Comprising the local government areas of Alkaleri, Bauchi, Bogoro, Dass, Kirfi, Tafawa Balewa, and Toro.
  10. Comprising the local government areas of Alkaleri and Kirfi.
  11. Comprising the local government area of Bauchi.
  12. Comprising the local government areas of Darazo and Ganjuwa.
  13. Comprising the local government areas of Dass, Bogoro, and Tafawa Balewa.
  14. Comprising the local government area of Gamawa.
  15. Comprising the local government areas of Jamaare and Itas/Gadau.
  16. Comprising the local government area of Katagum.
  17. Comprising the local government areas of Misau and Dambam.
  18. Comprising the local government areas of Ningi and Warji.
  19. Comprising the local government areas of Shira and Giade.
  20. Comprising the local government area of Toro.
  21. Comprising the local government area of Zaki.

References
  1. Jimoh, Abbas (26 February 2022). "INEC Sets New Dates For 2023 General Elections". Daily Trust. Retrieved 26 February 2022.
  2. Elimian, Adrian. "Nigerian Presidential Election: State Ratings". Africa Elects. Retrieved 25 February 2023.
  3. "President Tinubu: Predilections and Predictions". Substack. Dataphyte. Retrieved 11 February 2023.
  4. "The EiE-SBM 2023 Election forecast: It all hinges on insecurity and turnout". SBM Intelligence. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
  5. "Projection: 2023 presidential elections". SBM Intelligence. 15 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
  6. "THISDAY 2023 Election Centre: Why Presidential Run off is Increasingly Likely". ThisDay. 27 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
  7. Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny. "Who wins 2023 presidential election?". The Nation. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
  8. Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny (19 February 2023). "WHO WINS 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION? | The Nation Newspaper". The Nation Newspaper. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
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