2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania
The 2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Pennsylvania voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat.[1] Pennsylvania is considered to be a crucial swing state in 2024.
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| Elections in Pennsylvania |
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 Government |
Incumbent Democratic president and Pennsylvanian-born Joe Biden has stated that he intends to run for reelection to a second term.[2]
Democratic primary
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. |
Marianne Williamson |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University | September 28 – October 2, 2023 | 759 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 70% | 17% | 5% | 8% |
Republican primary
The Pennsylvania Republican presidential primary will be held on April 23, 2024.
General election
Polling
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | October 7-9, 2023 | 900 (LV) | ? | 39% | 39% | 9% | 13% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franklin & Marshall College | October 11–22, 2023 | 873 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 44% | 42% | 14% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | October 7-9, 2023 | 900 (LV) | ? | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| Emerson College | October 1-4, 2023 | 430 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 36% | 45% | 19% |
| Quinnipiac University | September 28 – October 2, 2023 | 1,725 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 1] | September 25–26, 2023 | 673 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 45% | 7% |
| Quinnipiac University | June 22–26, 2023 | 1,584 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| Public Opinion Strategies | April 11–13, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 42% | 12% |
| Franklin & Marshall College | March 27 – April 7, 2023 | 643 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 36% | 35% | 29% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research | February 19–26, 2023 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 48% | 41% | 11% |
| Targoz Market Research | November 2–6, 2022 | 631 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 46% | 52% | 2% |
| Emerson College | October 28–31, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| Emerson College | September 23–26, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 828 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 43% | 9% |
| Emerson College | August 22–23, 2022 | 1,034 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 47% | 11% |
| PEM Management Corporation (R)[upper-alpha 2] | July 22–24, 2022 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 42% | 44% | 14% |
| Blueprint Polling (D) | July 19–21, 2022 | 712 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 42% | 41% | 17% |
| Blueprint Polling (D) | February 15–16, 2022 | 635 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 45% | 40% | 15% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[upper-alpha 3] | November 11–16, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 51% | 4% |
- Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | May 2–8, 2023 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 39% | 12% |
| Public Opinion Strategies | April 11–13, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 45% | 13% |
| Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 828 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 42% | 12% |
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | May 2–8, 2023 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 42% | 38% | 20% |
See also
Notes
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
- Partisan clients
- Poll commissioned by Save My Country Action Fund
- Poll conducted for the John Bolton Super PAC
- Poll sponsored by Trump's campaign
References
- Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- "Biden: 'My plan is to run for reelection' in 2024". Politico.com. Retrieved July 19, 2021.
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