2024 United States presidential election in Arizona
The 2024 United States presidential election in Arizona is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Arizona voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Arizona has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1] Arizona is considered to be a crucial swing state in 2024.
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| Elections in Arizona |
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Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden has stated that he intends to run for reelection to a second term.[2] If he wins the state again, he will become the first Democrat since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944 to carry the state in two consecutive presidential elections.
Primary elections
Democratic primary
The Arizona Democratic primary is scheduled to be held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Florida, Illinois, and Ohio.
General election
Polling
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | October 7–9, 2023 | 627 (LV) | ± | 37% | 42% | 8% | 12% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | October 7–9, 2023 | 627 (RV) | 39% | 44% | 16% | |
| Emerson College | August 2–4, 2023 | 1,337 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 43% | 45% | 13% |
| Public Opinion Strategies | July 22–24, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 44% | 8% |
| Public Opinion Strategies | June 17–19, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 41% | 11% |
| Public Opinion Strategies | May 15–17, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 44% | 10% |
| Public Opinion Strategies | April 11–13, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[upper-alpha 1] | March 13–14, 2023 | 1,001 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 50% | 11% |
| OH Predictive Insights | January 31 – February 9, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 39% | 37% | 24% |
| Blueprint Polling (D) | January 5–8, 2023 | 618 (V) | ± 3.9% | 35% | 38% | 27% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | November 8–9, 2022 | 874 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
| Targoz Market Research | November 2–6, 2022 | 560 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 45% | 53% | 2% |
| Emerson College | October 30 – November 1, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 46% | 12% |
| Emerson College | September 6–7, 2022 | 627 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 41% | 44% | 15% |
| Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 773 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 43% | 47% | 10% |
| Blueprint Polling (D) | May 12–16, 2022 | 608 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 41% | 18% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[upper-alpha 2] | November 11–16, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 51% | 6% |
| Bendixen/Amandi International | June 17–23, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 44% | 5% |
- Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies | July 22–24, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 39% | 46% | 12% |
| Public Opinion Strategies | June 17–19, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 40% | 46% | 12% |
| Public Opinion Strategies | May 15–17, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 47% | 10% |
| Public Opinion Strategies | April 11–13, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 48% | 10% |
| OH Predictive Insights | January 31 – February 9, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 35% | 36% | 29% |
| Blueprint Polling (D) | January 5–8, 2023 | 618 (V) | ± 3.9% | 37% | 43% | 20% |
| Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 773 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 43% | 43% | 14% |
- Joe Biden vs. Mike Pence
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Mike Pence Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies | May 15–17, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 43% | 12% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Cornel West Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | August 2–4, 2023 | 1,337 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 41% | 42% | 4% | 13% |
See also
Notes
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
- Partisan clients
- Poll sponsored by College Republicans United
- Poll sponsored by Trump's campaign
References
- Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- "Biden: 'My plan is to run for reelection' in 2024". Politico.com. Retrieved July 19, 2021.
