2024 United States Senate election in Arizona

The 2024 United States Senate election in Arizona will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Arizona. Primary elections will take place on August 6, 2024.[1] This election is the fifth consecutive even-number year in which a senate election will be held in Arizona after elections in 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022.

2024 United States Senate election in Arizona

November 5, 2024
 
Party Independent Democratic Republican

Incumbent U.S. senator

Kyrsten Sinema
Independent



Incumbent one-term centrist[2] independent Senator Kyrsten Sinema was first elected as a Democrat in 2018 with 50% of the vote, succeeding retiring Republican Jeff Flake. Sinema left the Democratic Party in December 2022. Sinema has not declared if she will run for re-election, but filed paperwork to do so in April 2023.[3] U.S. representative Ruben Gallego is seeking the Democratic nomination, while Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb is running for the Republican nomination, as is Kari Lake, the party's 2022 gubernatorial nominee. Due to the uncertainty regarding Sinema's intentions, the state's purple lean, and the potential for a three-way race, most analysts currently consider the race to be a tossup.[4][5]

Background

Arizona is considered to be a formerly red but now purple state at the federal level, voting for Republican Donald Trump by 3.5 percentage points in 2016 and for Democrat Joe Biden by roughly 0.3 percentage points in 2020. Both parties have seen success in the state in recent years, with Democrats controlling the other U.S. Senate seat and the governorship after flipping the latter in 2022, while Republicans hold a majority of its U.S. House seats and control the state legislature.

Independents

Filed paperwork

Endorsements

Kyrsten Sinema (I) (not declared)
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Kyrsten Sinema (I) $16,334,577 $5,708,681 $10,797,422
Source: Federal Election Commission[7]

Democratic primary

Sinema was considered highly vulnerable to a primary challenge due to her opposition to several parts of the Democratic Party's legislative agenda. The most prominent dispute was over the Build Back Better Act, specifically the provisions concerning lowering prescription drug prices, as well as her opposition to increasing the minimum wage and to filibuster reform. Prospective polling showed Sinema trailing all of her potential challengers by wide margins, with U.S. representative Ruben Gallego being viewed by numerous political analysts as the frontrunner to challenge her.[8] On January 22, 2022, the Arizona Democratic Party voted overwhelmingly to censure Sinema for a second time for voting against a carve-out to the filibuster in a Democratic-led effort to pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Act.

During the congressional consideration of the Inflation Reduction Act in August 2022, Sinema did not initially announce support for the bill, doing so only after Democratic leaders agreed to remove a provision on closing the so-called carried interest tax loophole, the closure of which would have raised taxes on hedge fund owners and investment managers.[9] This action renewed calls from Democrats for Sinema to face a primary opponent in her next election.[10]

Sinema left the Democratic Party in December 2022 and registered as an independent.[3]

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Ruben Gallego $9,953,582 $6,225,393 $5,004,763
Source: Federal Election Commission[7]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Ruben
Gallego
Alexander
Keller
Other Undecided
Emerson College August 2–4, 2023 571 (LV) 48% 6% 6%[lower-alpha 2] 40%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Kate
Gallego
Ruben
Gallego
Kathy
Hoffman
Regina
Romero
Kyrsten
Sinema
Greg
Stanton
Undecided
Data for Progress (D) January 21–24, 2022 673 (LV) ± 4.0% 74% 16% 10%
66% 17% 17%
OH Predictive Insights November 1–8, 2021 229 (RV) ± 6.5% 47% 24% 29%
44% 24% 32%
25% 47% 28%
Data for Progress (D)[upper-alpha 1] October 8–10, 2021 467 (LV) ± 5.0% 9% 23% 9% 19% 13% 26%
60% 25% 15%
62% 23% 15%
55% 26% 19%
24% 59% 17%

Republican primary

Declared

Filed paperwork

Publicly expressed interest

Declined

Endorsements

Kari Lake
Former U.S. Presidents
U.S. Senators
U.S. representatives
State senators
Local officials
Mark Lamb

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Mark Lamb $1,082,983 $776,010 $306,973
Source: Federal Election Commission[7]

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Abe
Hamadeh
Kari
Lake
Mark
Lamb
Jim
Lamon
Blake
Masters
Karrin Taylor
Robson
Brian
Wright
Other Undecided
Emerson College August 2–4, 2023 667 (LV) ± 3.7% 42% 11% 2% 7% 2% 28%
J.L. Partners April 10–12, 2023 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 4% 38% 8% 3% 7% 10% 2% 29%

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[57] Tossup August 8, 2023
Inside Elections[4] Tossup July 28, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[58] Tossup January 24, 2023
Elections Daily[59] Tossup May 4, 2023

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Ruben
Gallego (D)
Kari
Lake (R)
Undecided
National Research (R) October 8–9, 2023 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 44% 44% 12%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 2] October 6–7, 2023 522 (V) ± 4.3% 48% 43% 9%
Hypothetical polling
Ruben Gallego vs. Kari Lake (vs. Kyrsten Sinema)
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Ruben
Gallego (D)
Kari
Lake (R)
Kyrsten
Sinema (I)
Undecided
National Research (R) October 8–9, 2023 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 33% 37% 19% 10%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 2] October 6–7, 2023 522 (V) ± 4.3% 41% 36% 15% 8%
Noble Predictive Insights July 13–17, 2023 1000 (RV) ± 3.1% 45% 35% 20%
34% 25% 26% 15%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 2] April 18–19, 2023 559 (V) 42% 35% 14% 9%
Arizona Public Opinion Pulse / OH Predictive Insights January 31 – February 9, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 43% 33% 24%
34% 26% 19% 21%
Normington Petts (D)[upper-alpha 3] January 18–23, 2023 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 36% 36% 24% 4%
50% 45% 5%
Blueprint Polling (D) January 5–8, 2023 618 (V) ± 3.9% 32% 36% 14% 18%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 2] December 21, 2022 650 (V) ± 3.8% 40% 41% 13% 6%
48% 47% 5%
42% 39% 19%
Ruben Gallego vs. Doug Ducey (vs. Kyrsten Sinema)
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Ruben
Gallego (D)
Doug
Ducey (R)
Kyrsten
Sinema (I)
Undecided
Arizona Public Opinion Pulse / OH Predictive Insights January 31 – February 9, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 38% 34% 28%
32% 27% 17% 23%
Normington Petts (D)[upper-alpha 3] January 18–23, 2023 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 37% 31% 27% 5%
Ruben Gallego vs. Blake Masters (vs. Kyrsten Sinema)
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Ruben
Gallego (D)
Blake
Masters (R)
Kyrsten
Sinema (I)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 2] October 6–7, 2023 522 (V) ± 4.3% 41% 31% 17% 11%
Noble Predictive Insights July 13–17, 2023 1000 (RV) ± 3.1% 44% 36% 20%
32% 24% 28% 16%
Arizona Public Opinion Pulse / OH Predictive Insights January 31 – February 9, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 43% 32% 26%
33% 24% 22% 21%
Ruben Gallego vs. Karrin Taylor-Robson (vs. Kyrsten Sinema)
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Ruben
Gallego (D)
Karrin
Taylor Robson (R)
Kyrsten
Sinema (I)
Undecided
Arizona Public Opinion Pulse / OH Predictive Insights January 31 – February 9, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 36% 32% 32%
31% 24% 21% 25%
Ruben Gallego vs. Mark Lamb (vs. Kyrsten Sinema)
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Ruben
Gallego (D)
Mark
Lamb (R)
Kyrsten
Sinema (I)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 2] October 6–7, 2023 522 (V) ± 4.3% 40% 31% 16% 13%
Emerson College August 2–4, 2023 1,337 (RV) ± 2.6% 42% 42% 16%
36% 29% 21% 15%
Noble Predictive Insights July 13–17, 2023 1000 (RV) ± 3.1% 40% 36% 24%
33% 25% 24% 18%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 2] April 18–19, 2023 559 (V) 43% 33% 15% 9%
Ruben Gallego vs. Jim Lamon (vs. Kyrsten Sinema)
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Ruben
Gallego (D)
Jim
Lamon (R)
Kyrsten
Sinema (I)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 2] April 18–19, 2023 559 (V) 43% 27% 16% 14%
Ruben Gallego vs. Brian Wright (vs. Kyrsten Sinema)
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Ruben
Gallego (D)
Brian
Wright (R)
Kyrsten
Sinema (I)
Undecided
Emerson College August 2–4, 2023 1,337 (RV) ± 2.6% 41% 38% 21%
37% 25% 26% 12%

Notes

  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. "Someone else" with 6%"
Partisan clients
  1. This poll was sponsored by Primary Sinema
  2. This poll was sponsored by Gallego's campaign
  3. This poll was sponsored by Progress Arizona, LUCHA, and Replace Sinema PAC

References

  1. "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
  2. Staff. "Kyrsten Sinema, Senator for Arizona". GovTrack.us. Retrieved April 23, 2023.
  3. Collins, Eliza (April 7, 2023). "Kyrsten Sinema Is Preparing for a 2024 Re-Election Campaign". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved April 7, 2023.
  4. "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
  5. "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
  6. Rod, Marc (March 16, 2023). "AIPAC rolls out first 2024 endorsements, including vulnerable Senate Democrats". Jewish Insider.
  7. "2024 Election United States Senate - Arizona". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 11, 2023.
  8. Ryan O'Donnell; Gustavo Sanchez; Brian Burton (October 14, 2021). "Poll: Kyrsten Sinema Poised to Lose Democratic Primary in 2024". Data for Progress.
  9. Zoë Richards; Frank Thorp V; Sahil Kapur (August 4, 2022). "Sen. Kyrsten Sinema signs off on Democrats' big agenda bill, paving the way for Senate passage". CNBC. Retrieved August 29, 2022.
  10. Kupar, Sahil (August 2, 2022). "Sinema faces conflicting pressures in Arizona on Democrats' big agenda bill". NBC. Retrieved August 29, 2022.
  11. "Dems of Greater Tucson Presents: See Our 2023 Speakers". Democrats of Greater Tucson. Retrieved April 30, 2023.
  12. Lah, Kate Sullivan,Kyung (January 23, 2023). "Arizona Democrat Ruben Gallego announces Senate bid in challenge to Kyrsten Sinema". CNN. Retrieved January 23, 2023.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  13. "Democrats Are Ready to Call Kyrsten Sinema's Bluff". The Daily Beast. December 13, 2022.
  14. Alexi McCammond; Eugene Scott (January 23, 2023). "Democrat Ruben Gallego challenging Kyrsten Sinema in 2024 Senate race". Axios.
  15. "Greg Stanton said he will not run for Arizona's Senate seat in 2024. All eyes are now on Ruben Gallego and Kyrsten Sinema". Politico. January 19, 2023. Retrieved January 20, 2023.
  16. Frisk, Garrett (July 21, 2023). "We Asked Every Member of the House if They're Running in 2024. Here's What They Said". Diamond Eye Candidate Report. Retrieved July 21, 2023.
  17. "Journalist's Roundtable: Ruben Gallego runs for Senate". Arizona PBS. January 27, 2023.
  18. Schnell, Mychael (April 6, 2023). "Rep. Dan Goldman endorses Gallego for Senate". KXAN. Retrieved April 6, 2023.
  19. Bridget Bowman; Ben Kamisar; Alexandra Marquez (January 26, 2023). "Eyes on 2024: Mitch Daniels weighs life as a senator". Meet the Press Blog. NBC News. Retrieved January 31, 2023.
  20. Daniela Altimari; Mary Ellen McIntire; Kate Ackley (February 2, 2023). "At the Races: Cash course". CQ Roll Call.
  21. McIntire, Mary Ellen; Ackley, Kate; Altimari, Daniela; Lesniewski, Niels (March 2, 2023). "At the Races: Back to the future". Roll Call. Retrieved March 2, 2023.
  22. Santaliz, Kate (June 27, 2023). "Ex-Speaker Pelosi to headline a fundraiser for Democrat seeking Sen. Sinema's seat". NBC News. Retrieved June 28, 2023.
  23. Bernal, Rafael (May 9, 2023). "Hispanic Caucus campaign arm formally endorses Gallego for Senate". KGET-TV 12. Retrieved May 9, 2023.
  24. Bender, Michael C. (February 3, 2023). "Kari Lake, Still Refusing to Accept Defeat in One Race, Teases Arizona Senate Run". The New York Times.
  25. "CWA Arizona State Council Endorses Rep. Ruben Gallego for U.S. Senate". Communications Workers of America. January 30, 2023. Retrieved January 31, 2023.
  26. "Teamsters Endorse Ruben Gallego in Arizona Senate Race". Yahoo Finance. PR Newswire. January 30, 2023. Retrieved January 31, 2023.
  27. "We do not endorse mediocre Democrats". Climate Hawks Vote. Retrieved June 21, 2023.
  28. "Senate Candidates". Council for a Livable World. Retrieved October 4, 2023.
  29. Gans, Jared (May 16, 2023). "Liberal group endorsing Gallego after backing Sinema". The Hill. Retrieved May 16, 2023.
  30. "LCV Action Fund Endorses Ruben Gallego for Senate". League of Conservation Voters. Archived from the original on September 27, 2023. Retrieved September 27, 2023.
  31. "AZ-Sen: "I'm one of the first members of Congress to endorse Ruben Gallego (D). Here's why."". Daily Kos. April 10, 2023. Retrieved April 22, 2023.
  32. Santaliz, Kate (October 4, 2023). "Rep. Ruben Gallego snags support from abortion-rights group that once backed Kyrsten Sinema". NBC News. Archived from the original on October 4, 2023. Retrieved October 4, 2023.
  33. "Stonewall Dems of AZ". stonewalldemsaz.org. Retrieved October 17, 2023.
  34. "VoteVets PAC Endorses Gallego for Arizona Senate". March 27, 2023.
  35. Cathey, Libby (October 10, 2023). "Kari Lake launches Arizona Senate campaign after narrow gubernatorial loss". ABC News. Retrieved October 11, 2023.
  36. MacDonald-Evoy, Jerod (April 11, 2023). "Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb enters U.S. Senate race to challenge Kyrsten Sinema". Arizona Mirror. States Newsroom. Retrieved October 16, 2023.
  37. Wong, Kenneth (April 11, 2023). "2024 Elections: Arizonans already declaring candidacies for House and Senate; here's what you should know". Fox 10. Retrieved April 30, 2023.
  38. Gans, Jared (August 8, 2023). "Sinema independent bid could boost Democrats in Arizona Senate race: poll". The Hill. Retrieved August 8, 2023.
  39. "FEC Form 2 for Report FEC-1724130". docquery.fec.gov. Retrieved September 2, 2023.
  40. Collins, Eliza (August 30, 2023). "Blake Masters Plans to Enter Race for Kyrsten Sinema's Senate Seat". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved August 30, 2023.
  41. McCordick, Jack (September 10, 2023). "Blake Masters Might Be Getting Cold Feet About A Second Run for Senate in Arizona: Report". Vanity Fair. Retrieved October 11, 2023.
  42. Duda, Jeremy (December 12, 2022). "Sinema's switch alters electoral math for GOP and Democrats in 2024". Axios.
  43. "Which Republicans will run for Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's seat? What we know". The Arizona Republic. March 26, 2023. Archived from the original on March 26, 2023.
  44. Drucker, David (December 9, 2022). "Sinema's switch upends 2024 Arizona Senate race". The Washington Examiner.
  45. Al Weaver (December 18, 2022). "Why the GOP has Ducey at the top of its Senate candidate wish list". The Hill. Ducey last week told reporters in his home state that he is 'not running for the United States Senate.'
  46. Manu Raju; Alayna Treene (April 10, 2023). "Senate Republicans confront 2024 primary challenges and Trump's influence". CNN Politics.
  47. "Arizona Rep. Debbie Lesko says she won't seek reelection, Abe Hamadeh to run for her seat". KTVK. October 17, 2023. Retrieved October 17, 2023.
  48. Baker, David (October 11, 2023). "Kari Lake officially begins her campaign for US Senate". KTVK. Retrieved October 11, 2023. Another ally of Lake's is Abe Hamadeh, who lost his bid to be Arizona attorney general to Democrat Kris Mayes, and he spoke at the Tuesday rally as well.
  49. "Republican Karrin Taylor Robson says she won't run for Sinema's Senate seat in Arizona". The Hill. May 25, 2023.
  50. Roberts, Laurie (February 18, 2023). "Kari Lake is the GOP's nightmare Senate candidate, but really, who else is there?". The Arizona Republic.
  51. Otterbein, Holly; Everett, Burgess; Mutnick, Ally (February 1, 2023). "Arizona Republicans fear they may blow it again". Politico. Retrieved February 1, 2023.
  52. Swan, Jonathan; Haberman, Maggie; Ulloa, Jazmine (October 10, 2023). "Trump Endorses Kari Lake's Senate Run in Arizona". The New York Times. Retrieved October 11, 2023.
  53. Mutnick, Ally (October 16, 2023). "Kari Lake locks down a key GOP establishment endorsement". POLITICO. Archived from the original on October 16, 2023. Retrieved October 16, 2023.
  54. "Rep. Burgess Owens endorses Arizona's Kari Lake for Senate". Deseret News. October 24, 2023. Retrieved October 24, 2023.
  55. Hansen, Ronald J. (October 10, 2023). "'This mama bear has a whole lot of fight in her': Kari Lake enters Arizona's Senate race". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved October 11, 2023.
  56. Gutierrez, Marco. "Primary Campaign Corner 2024: Candidates". Latinos for America First. Archived from the original on September 15, 2023. Retrieved September 15, 2023.
  57. "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
  58. "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
  59. "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
Official campaign websites
This article is issued from Wikipedia. The text is licensed under Creative Commons - Attribution - Sharealike. Additional terms may apply for the media files.