2024 United States Senate election in Ohio

The 2024 United States Senate election in Ohio will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Ohio. Primary elections are scheduled to take place on March 19, 2024.[1] Incumbent three-term Senator Sherrod Brown is seeking a fourth term in office.[2] Brown is one of three Democratic Senators up for re-election in states that Donald Trump won in both 2016 and 2020, alongside Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Jon Tester of Montana. Brown's re-election is considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain the Senate majority in 2024.[3]

For related races, see 2024 United States Senate elections.
Not to be confused with 2024 Ohio Senate election.
2024 United States Senate election in Ohio
November 5, 2024
 
Party Democratic Republican
Incumbent U.S. senator

Sherrod Brown
Democratic


Elections in Ohio
Federal government
U.S. President
U.S. Senate
U.S. House of Representatives
State government
General elections
Gubernatorial elections
Lieutenant Governor elections
Secretary of State elections
Attorney General elections
State Auditor elections
State Treasurer elections
State Supreme Court elections
State House elections
State Senate elections
Ballot measures
2004
Issue 1
2011
Issue 2
2018
Issue 1
2022
Issue 1
2023
Akron
Mayoral elections
Cincinnati
Mayoral elections
City Council elections
Cleveland
Mayoral elections
City Council elections
Columbus
Mayoral elections
Cuyahoga County
County executive elections
County Council elections
Toledo
Mayoral elections

Background

Ohio has trended towards Republicans in recent years, and is now seen as a moderately red state at the federal level. Republicans control the other U.S. Senate seat, all statewide offices, majorities in both houses of the Ohio General Assembly, and a majority in its U.S. Representative congressional delegation. However, in the 2022 midterms Democrats managed to net gain a seat in Ohio's U.S. House delegation.[4][5]

Former President Donald Trump won Ohio in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections by about 8 points. Republican J.D. Vance defeated Democrat Tim Ryan in the 2022 U.S. Senate election by about 6 points.[6][7]

Brown was first elected in 2006, defeating then-incumbent U.S. Senator Mike DeWine, and has won reelection in 2012 and 2018.[8][9][10] Even with the state's Republican partisan lean, this race is expected to be highly competitive, as Brown is generally popular among Ohioans.[11]

Democratic primary

Declared

Filed paperwork

Endorsements
Sherrod Brown
Organizations

Fundraising
Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Sherrod Brown (D) $15,417,417 $8,080,240 $8,708,422
Source: Federal Election Commission[23]

Polling
Hypothetical polling
Sherrod Brown vs. Tim Ryan vs. Shontel Brown
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Sherrod
Brown		 Shontel
Brown		 Tim
Ryan		 Undecided
Ohio Northern University Jul 17–26, 2023 675 (RV) ± 3.7% 59% 7% 17% 17%

Republican primary

Declared

Potential

Declined

Endorsements
Matt Dolan
State Senators
State House members
  • Gayle Manning, state representative from the 52nd district (2023–present) and the 55th district (2019–2022); former state senator from the 13th district (2011–2018)[36][37]
Local officials
Notable individuals
Organizations
Frank LaRose
State House members
  • Mike Loychik, state representative from the 65th district (2023–present) and 63rd district (2021–2022)[40]
  • Melanie Miller, state representative from the 67th district (2023–present)[41]
  • Josh Williams, state representative from the 41st district (2023–present)[40]
Bernie Moreno
Federal officials
U.S. Senators
U.S Representatives
Individuals
Organizations
Declined to endorse
Organizations

Fundraising
Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Matt Dolan (R) $4,671,949 $817,787 $3,900,752
Bernie Moreno (R) $2,260,802 $745,173 $1,515,629
Source: Federal Election Commission[23]

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Matt
Dolan		 Frank
LaRose		 Bernie
Moreno		 Other Undecided
Ohio Northern University July 17–26, 2023 675 (RV) ± 3.7% 18% 32% 7% 1% 43%
Suffolk/USA Today July 9–12, 2023 190 (RV) – 14% 19% 9% 57%
East Carolina University June 21–24, 2023 405 (RV) ± 4.0% 14% 17% 7% 4% 58%
Causeway Solutions (R)[upper-alpha 1] May 19–27, 2023 526 (RV) ± 2.5% 11% 24% 6% 17% 42%

General election

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[52] Tossup May 3, 2023
Inside Elections[53] Tossup July 28, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[54] Tossup January 24, 2023
Elections Daily[55] Tossup May 4, 2023

Polling
Sherrod Brown vs. Matt Dolan
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Sherrod
Brown (D)		 Matt
Dolan (R)		 Other Undecided
Emerson College October 1–3, 2023 438 (RV) ± 4.5% 36% 38% – 26%
Ohio Northern University July 17–26, 2023 675 (RV) ± 3.7% 45% 33% 0% 22%
Suffolk University July 9–12, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 43% – 11%
East Carolina University June 21–24, 2023 805 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 44% 4% 7%
Sherrod Brown vs. Frank LaRose
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Sherrod
Brown (D)		 Frank
LaRose (R)		 Other Undecided
Emerson College October 1–3, 2023 438 (RV) ± 4.5% 38% 39% – 23%
Ohio Northern University July 17–26, 2023 675 (RV) ± 3.7% 45% 32% 0% 23%
Suffolk University July 9–12, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 45% – 10%
East Carolina University June 21–24, 2023 805 (RV) ± 4.0% 44% 42% 4% 11%
Sherrod Brown vs. Bernie Moreno
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Sherrod
Brown (D)		 Bernie
Moreno (R)		 Other Undecided
Emerson College October 1–3, 2023 438 (RV) ± 4.5% 35% 33% – 32%
Ohio Northern University July 17–26, 2023 675 (RV) ± 3.7% 45% 28% 0% 27%
Suffolk University July 9–12, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 48% 41% – 10%
East Carolina University June 21–24, 2023 805 (RV) ± 4.0% 46% 42% 2% 11%
Hypothetical polling
Sherrod Brown vs. generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Sherrod
Brown (D)		 Generic
Republican		 Undecided
Causeway Solutions (R)[upper-alpha 1] May 19–27, 2023 1639 (RV) ± 2.5% 39% 37% 24%

Notes
  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
Partisan clients
  1. Poll sponsored by Leadership for Ohio Fund, which supports LaRose

References
  1. "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
  2. Tobias, Andrew (September 13, 2022). "Ohio's Sen. Sherrod Brown says he's running for reelection in 2024". Cleveland.com. Retrieved September 16, 2022.
  3. Everett, Burgess (August 2, 2022). "GOP eyes 2024 payback for Manchin's Dems-only deal". Politico. Retrieved August 29, 2022.
  4. "GOP dominates Ohio's statewide midterm races". WOSU News. Retrieved May 5, 2023.
  5. DeWitt, David (November 9, 2022). "Ohio Democrats pick up one U.S. Congressional seat in midterm election". Ohio Capital Journal. Retrieved May 5, 2023.
  6. Dorman, John. "Republican JD Vance has a narrow edge over Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan in the Ohio Senate race: poll". Business Insider. Retrieved August 29, 2022.
  7. "Republican J.D. Vance defeats Democrat Tim Ryan in Ohio Senate race, NBC News projects". CNBC.
  8. "CNN.com - Elections 2006". www.cnn.com. Retrieved May 5, 2023.
  9. "2012 Ohio Senate Results". POLITICO. Retrieved May 5, 2023.
  10. "Ohio U.S. Senate Election Results". The New York Times. January 28, 2019. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved May 5, 2023.
  11. Yokley, Eli (January 11, 2023). "Kyrsten Sinema Remains Among America's Most Unpopular Senators After Party Switch". Morning Consult. Retrieved April 18, 2023.
  12. "FEC Form 2 for Report FEC-1723320". docquery.fec.gov. Retrieved September 24, 2023.
  13. "End Citizens United // Let America Vote Endorses Senator Brown for Reelection". End Citizens United. March 30, 2023. Retrieved April 1, 2023.
  14. "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". Feminist Majority Foundation PAC. Retrieved April 11, 2023.
  15. "JDCA Announces First Round of 2024 Senate Endorsements". Jewish Democratic Council of America. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
  16. "Meet JAC's 2024 Candidates | Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs". jacpac.org. Archived from the original on September 1, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
  17. "Sherrod Brown". JStreetPAC. Retrieved August 26, 2023.
  18. "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of Congressional Endorsements". League of Conservation Voters. Retrieved July 27, 2023.
  19. Dison, Denis (September 20, 2023). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 51 House, Senate Incumbents". NRDC Action Fund. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
  20. "ENDORSEMENTS - North Shore Federation of Labor". North Shore AFL-CIO. January 1, 2023. Retrieved March 2, 2023.
  21. "Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorses Reproductive Rights Champions Baldwin, Brown, Gillibrand, Rosen, Tester for Re-Election in 2024". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org. Retrieved July 31, 2023.
  22. "2024 Endorsements". Population Connection Action Fund. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
  23. "2024 Election United States Senate - Ohio". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 11, 2023.
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  25. Beavers, Olivia (July 17, 2023). "Ohio's messy GOP Senate primary gets a third candidate". Politico. Retrieved July 17, 2023.
  26. Rouan, Rick (April 18, 2023). "Bernie Moreno launches U.S. Senate campaign to unseat Sherrod Brown". cleveland. Retrieved April 18, 2023.
  27. Ingles, Jo (May 30, 2023). "Key GOP endorsement could be on the way in Ohio's 2024 US Senate race". statenews.org. Retrieved July 14, 2023.
  28. Burgess, Everett (December 5, 2022). "Red-state rodeos to set GOP's 2024 Senate chances". Politico. Retrieved December 5, 2022.
  29. Tobias, Andrew J. (May 30, 2023). "Ohio congressman declines to run in 2024 Republican U.S. Senate primary". Cleveland.com. Retrieved May 30, 2023.
  30. "Ohio's Drive Capital moves forward as co-founder Mark Kvamme takes detour". November 22, 2022.
  31. Jake Zuckerman, jzuckerman@cleveland com (April 25, 2023). "DeWine gets behind an August election to make constitutional amendments harder: Capitol Letter". cleveland. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
  32. "Another bruising Senate race brews in Ohio as Republicans target Sherrod Brown". NBC News. November 16, 2022. Retrieved November 16, 2022.
  33. Sewell, Dan. "Dan Sewell: Anti-woke crusader mulls political future". Cincinnati.com. Retrieved January 30, 2023.
  34. Severi, Misty; Roth, Samantha-Jo (February 22, 2023). "Vivek Ramaswamy announces candidacy for 2024 presidential election". Washington Examiner. Retrieved February 21, 2023.
  35. "Southwest Ohio Republican Leaders Endorse Matt Dolan for U.S. Senate". Dolan for Ohio. March 27, 2023. Retrieved September 26, 2023.
  36. "Lorain County Leaders Sen. Nathan Manning, Rep. Gayle Manning & Mayor Kevin Corcoran Endorse Matt Dolan for U.S. Senate". Dolan for Ohio. July 31, 2023. Retrieved September 26, 2023.
  37. Gomez, Henry J. (August 6, 2023). "High-stakes Ohio ballot measure sets the stage for another hostile Senate race". NBC News. Retrieved September 18, 2023.
  38. LaRosa, Angela (May 13, 2023). "Candidate: 'Best suited' to oust Sen. Brown". The Courier. Retrieved May 16, 2023.
  39. Mutnick, Ally (August 23, 2023). "Cleveland Browns owners take sides in Ohio Senate GOP primary". Politico. Retrieved September 18, 2023.
  40. Tobias, Andrew J. (September 15, 2023). "Ohio redistricting still held up over GOP leadership squabble: Capitol Letter". The Plain Dealer. Retrieved September 22, 2023.
  41. Tobias, Andrew J. (September 22, 2023). "Judge pauses Ohio law overhauling state school board: Capitol Letter". The Plain Dealer. Retrieved September 22, 2023.
  42. Hancock, Laura (May 17, 2023). "New driver's license promises faster travel to Canada, Mexico, Caribbean: Capitol Letter—On the Move". The Plain Dealer. Retrieved May 17, 2023.
  43. Kassel, Matthew (April 19, 2023). "Bernie Moreno's Senate candidacy to test MAGA strength in Ohio". Jewish Insider. Retrieved September 26, 2023.
  44. Staff, J. I. (July 24, 2023). "Daily Kickoff: Showdown in Israel as Knesset votes on 'reasonableness' clause". Jewish Insider. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
  45. "Marco Rubio endorses Bernie Moreno in tight Ohio Senate race". Washington Examiner. August 2, 2023. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
  46. "First on Fox: Trump ally Sen JD Vance endorses in Ohio's 2024 GOP Senate primary, backing Bernie Moreno". Fox News. Retrieved May 22, 2023.
  47. Bender, Michael. "In Tight G.O.P. Primary in Ohio, Newt Gingrich Picks His Candidate". New York Times.
  48. "Pro-State Issue 1 campaign details strategy in closed-door meeting: Capitol Letter". June 2, 2023.
  49. Poling, Hannah (August 7, 2023). "Kari Lake Endorses Republican Businessman Bernie Moreno for U.S. Senate at Ohio GOP Rally". The Ohio Star. Retrieved August 8, 2023.
  50. "2024 Endorsements". Turning Point Action. Retrieved May 16, 2023.
  51. Mueller, Julia (July 19, 2023). "Ohio GOP braces for critical primary in bid to oust Sherrod Brown". The Hill. Retrieved September 26, 2023.
  52. "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
  53. "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
  54. "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
  55. "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
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