2024 United States Senate election in Virginia

The 2024 United States Senate election in Virginia will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Virginia. Incumbent Democratic Senator Tim Kaine is running for re-election to a third term in office. Kaine was re-elected with 57.0% of the vote in 2018. Primary elections will take place on June 18, 2024.[1]

For related races, see 2024 United States Senate elections.

2024 United States Senate election in Virginia
November 5, 2024
 
Party Democratic Republican
Incumbent U.S. senator

Tim Kaine
Democratic


Elections in Virginia
Federal government
U.S. President
U.S. Senate
U.S. House
State government
Governor
Lieutenant Governor
Attorney General
Senate
House of Delegates
State elections
Ballot measures
Statewide
Fairfax County
2016
Alexandria
Mayor
(List)
Hampton
Mayor
Henrico County
Commonwealth's Attorney
Norfolk
Mayor
Richmond
Mayor
City Council
Virginia Beach
Mayor
City Council

Background

Virginia is considered to be a moderately blue state at the federal level, with Joe Biden carrying Virginia by about 10 percentage points in the 2020 presidential election. Democrats control both U.S. Senate seats, a majority in its U.S. Representative congressional delegation, and its state senate. However, Republicans flipped the Governorship and the state house in the 2021 elections.[2][3][4]

Kaine was first elected in 2012 by 6 points defeating former U.S. Senator George Allen. He also won re-election in 2018 by 16 points.[5][6]

This race is considered to be clearly favoring Kaine as he is popular amongst Virginian voters and typically over-performs other down-ballot candidates.[7]

Democratic primary

Declared

Endorsements
Tim Kaine
Individuals
Organizations

Fundraising
Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Tim Kaine (D) $7,178,891 $3,380,814 $6,317,739
Source: Federal Election Commission[14]

Republican primary

Declared

Endorsements
Jonathan Emord
U.S. Representatives
Kimberly Lowe
Organizations
Scott Parkinson
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
Organizations

Fundraising
Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Hung Cao (R) $1,970 $37,100 $57,350
Johnathan Emord (R) $578,486 $524,988 $53,498
Eddie Garcia (R) $127,724 $95,223 $32,501
Gwen Hickman (R) $23,610 $13,509 $10,100
Kimberly Lowe (R) $21,621 $19,454 $2,167
Scott Parkinson (R) $362,332 $27,081 $335,250
Chuck Smith (R) $138,378 $83,236 $55,142
Ron Vitiello (R) $20,238 $3,366 $16,871
Source: Federal Election Commission[14]

General election

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[25] Solid D May 3, 2023
Elections Daily[26] Likely D May 4, 2023
Inside Elections[27] Solid D July 28, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[28] Safe D January 24, 2023

Polling
Hypothetical polling
Tim Kaine vs. Glenn Youngkin
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Tim
Kaine (D)		 Glenn
Youngkin (R)		 Other Undecided
Virginia Commonwealth University July 14-25, 2023 804 (A) ± 5.46% 47% 42% 3%[lower-alpha 2] 7%
University of Mary Washington September 6–12, 2022 1,000 (A) ± 3.1% 41% 39% 10%[lower-alpha 3] 10%

Notes
  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. None/Would not vote with 2%, other with 1%
  3. None/Would not vote with 5%, other with 5%

References
  1. "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
  2. "Live election results: 2020 Virginia results". www.politico.com. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
  3. Oliver, Ned (March 3, 2021). "Democrats have controlled Virginia government for two years. Here's what they've done". Virginia Mercury. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
  4. "GOP sweeps statewide races with 2 down-ballot wins". AP NEWS. November 2, 2021. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
  5. "Virginia Elections Database » 2012 U.S. Senate General Election". Virginia Elections Database. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
  6. "Virginia | Full Senate results". www.cnn.com. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
  7. Flynn, Meagan; Vozzella, Laura (January 20, 2023). "Va. Sen. Tim Kaine says he will seek another term". The Washington Post. Retrieved January 20, 2023.
  8. "NextGen PAC Endorses Senator Tim Kaine Ahead of 2024 Elections". NextGen America PAC. May 10, 2023. Retrieved May 10, 2023.
  9. "Meet JAC's 2024 Candidates | Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs". jacpac.org. Archived from the original on September 1, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
  10. "Tim Kaine". JStreetPAC. October 16, 2023. Retrieved August 26, 2023.
  11. "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of Congressional Endorsements". League of Conservation Voters. Retrieved July 27, 2023.
  12. Dison, Denis (September 20, 2023). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 51 House, Senate Incumbents". NRDC Action Fund. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
  13. "2024 Endorsements". Population Connection Action Fund. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
  14. "2024 Election United States Senate - Virginia". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 11, 2023.
  15. Minock, Nick (July 18, 2023). "Hung Cao launches website and files paperwork to run for 2024 US Senate race in Virginia". WJLA.com.
  16. Churchill, Victoria (January 31, 2023). "Constitutional Litigator Jonathan Emord Announces U.S. Senate Run". The Republican Standard. Retrieved January 31, 2023.
  17. Rankin, Sarah (January 20, 2023). "Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia to seek reelection". AP News. Retrieved April 21, 2023.
  18. Frisk, Garrett (July 5, 2023). "Attorney Gwen Hickman Joins Virginia Senate Race". Diamond Eye Candidate Report. Retrieved July 5, 2023.
  19. Martz, Michael (August 5, 2023). "Meet the 8 Republicans (and counting) who want to unseat Sen. Tim Kaine". Richmond Times-Dispatch. Retrieved August 26, 2023.
  20. Rankin, Sarah (April 3, 2023). "Scott Parkinson runs for Tim Kaine's seat". The Virginia Pilot.
  21. "U.S. SENATE CANDIDATE JONATHAN EMORD RECEIVES THE ENDORSEMENTS OF RON PAUL AND BARRY GOLDWATER, JR". FOX 59. March 14, 2023. Retrieved March 15, 2023.
  22. First, Latinos for America. "Latinos for America First". Latinos for America First. Archived from the original on September 15, 2023. Retrieved September 15, 2023.
  23. "Scott Parkinson Endorsements". Ballotpedia.
  24. "David N. Bossie and Citizens United Political Victory Fund Endorse Scott Parkinson for U.S. Senate from Virginia". cupvf.com. April 24, 2023. Retrieved May 1, 2023.
  25. "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
  26. "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
  27. "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
  28. "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
Official campaign websites
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