2024 United States House of Representatives elections in California

The 2024 United States House of Representatives elections in California will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect the 52 U.S. representatives from the State of California, one from all 52 of the state's congressional districts. The elections will coincide with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections.

2024 United States House of Representatives elections in California

November 5, 2024

All 52 California seats to the United States House of Representatives
 
Party Democratic Republican
Last election 40 12

Four incumbent representatives, Barbara Lee of the 12th district, Adam Schiff of the 30th district, Katie Porter of the 47th district, and Grace Napolitano of the 31st district have announced they will not seek re-election in 2024; Lee, Schiff, and Porter will instead run for U.S. Senate.[1][2][3][4]

House Majority PAC, a super PAC affiliated with the Democratic Party, has announced that it will target four California Republicans in 2024: Mike Garcia of the 27th district, Young Kim of the 40th district, Ken Calvert of the 41st district, and Michelle Steel of the 45th district. Garcia, Kim, and Steel all represent districts that Joe Biden won in the 2020 presidential election, while Calvert's district narrowly voted for Donald Trump.[5] There are two other California Republicans who represent Biden-won districts, John Duarte of the 13th district and David Valadao of the 22nd district. However, some Democratic strategists see Valadao's seat as being out of reach due to his pattern of victories in the left-leaning district.[6]

Several California Republicans will receive assistance from Protect the House 2024, a joint fundraising committee launched by former U.S. Speaker of the House and California Republican Kevin McCarthy to support vulnerable House Republicans. Among the representatives included in the committee are Duarte, Valadao, Garcia, Calvert, and Steel, as well as Kevin Kiley of the 3rd district.[7]

District 1

The incumbent is Republican Doug LaMalfa, who has represented the district since 2013 and was re-elected with 62.1% of the vote in 2022.

Declared

Endorsements

Doug LaMalfa (R)

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Doug LaMalfa (R) $226,867 $86,173 $507,384
Source: Federal Election Commission[12]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Solid R February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Solid R March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe R February 23, 2023

District 2

The incumbent is Democrat Jared Huffman, who has represented the district since 2013 and was re-elected with 74.4% of the vote in 2022.

Potential

Endorsements

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Jared Huffman (D) $225,898 $152,364 $1,002,345
Source: Federal Election Commission[20]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Solid D February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Solid D March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe D February 23, 2023

District 3

Jessica Morse

The incumbent is Republican Kevin Kiley, who was elected with 53.2% of the vote in 2022.

Declared

Potential

  • Kevin Kiley (Republican), incumbent U.S. Representative

Endorsements

Kevin Kiley (R)
Local officials
Political parties

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Kevin Kiley (R) $1,197,867 $213,874 $1,022,966
Source: Federal Election Commission[26]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Likely R February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Likely R March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Likely R February 23, 2023

District 4

The incumbent is Democrat Mike Thompson, who has represented the district since 2013 and was re-elected with 67.8% of the vote in 2022.

Declared

Filed paperwork

  • Andrew Engdahl (Democratic), community organizer and candidate for this district in 2022[27]

Endorsements

Mike Thompson (D)
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Mike Thompson (D) $504,537 $665,573 $1,466,797
Matt Brock (R) $900 $984 $0
Andrew Engdahl (D) $0 $712 $2,394
Source: Federal Election Commission[29]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Solid D February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Solid D March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe D February 23, 2023

District 5

The incumbent is Republican Tom McClintock, who has represented the district since 2009 and was re-elected with 61.3% of the vote in 2022.

Declared

  • Mike Barkley (Democratic), attorney, accountant, and perennial candidate[30]
  • Jason Kassel (Democratic), college professor[30]
  • Tom McClintock (Republican), incumbent U.S. Representative[8]

Endorsements

Tom McClintock (R)
Local officials
Organizations
Political parties

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Mike Barkley (D) $5,968 $4,801 $1,245
Tom McClintock (R) $316,088 $277,338 $176,265
Source: Federal Election Commission[31]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Solid R February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Solid R March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe R February 23, 2023

District 6

The incumbent is Democrat Ami Bera, who has represented the district since 2013 and was re-elected with 55.9% of the vote in 2022.

Declared

  • Chris Bish (Republican), realtor, runner-up for this district in 2020 and candidate in 2022[30]
  • Craig DeLuz (Republican), Robla school board member[32]
  • Ray Riehle (Republican), businessman[33]

Filed paperwork

  • Ami Bera (Democratic), incumbent U.S. Representative[34]
  • Omba Kipuke (Democratic), policy analyst[34]

Withdrawn

Endorsements

Craig DeLuz (R)

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Chris Bish (R) $16,090 $11,257 $4,861
Bret Daniels (R) $4,349 $1,973 $3,376
Craig DeLuz (R) $16,355 $15,257 $1,098
Ami Bera (D) $322,032 $285.352 $1,771,812
Source: Federal Election Commission[38]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Solid D February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Solid D March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe D February 23, 2023

District 7

Max Semenenko

The incumbent is Democrat Doris Matsui, who has represented the district since 2013 and was re-elected with 68.3% of the vote in 2022.

Declared

  • Doris Matsui (Democratic), incumbent U.S. Representative[8]
  • Max Semenenko (Republican), former member of the North Highlands Recreation and Park District Board and runner-up for this district in 2022[32]

Endorsements

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Max Semenenko (R) $910 $2,759 $8,483
Doris Matsui (D) $355,276 $201,939 $334,676
Source: Federal Election Commission[39]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Solid D February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Solid D March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe D February 23, 2023

District 8

The incumbent is Democrat John Garamendi, who has represented the district since 2013 and was re-elected with 75.7% of the vote in 2022.

Declared

  • John Garamendi (Democratic), incumbent U.S. Representative[8]
  • Rudy Recile (Republican), businessman and runner-up for this district in 2022[30]

Endorsements

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
John Garamendi (D) $186,682 $237.222 $1,070,907
Rudy Reciile (R) $2,063 $1,658 $898
Source: Federal Election Commission[42]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Solid D February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Solid D March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe D February 23, 2023

District 9

The incumbent is Democrat Josh Harder, who has represented the district since 2019 and was re-elected with 54.9% of the vote in 2022.

Declared

Withdrawn

  • Brett Dood (Republican), pastor (endorsed Lincoln)[30][45]

Endorsements

Kevin Lincoln (R)
Local officials
Political parties

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Josh Harder (D) $1,060,811 $341,402 $1,869,010
Source: Federal Election Commission[48]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[49] Likely D February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Solid D March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Likely D February 23, 2023

District 10

The incumbent is Democrat Mark DeSaulnier, who has represented the district since 2015 and was re-elected with 78.9% of the vote in 2022.

Declared

Endorsements

Mark DeSaulnier (D)
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Mark DeSaulnier (D) $143,406 $76.407 $642,363
Source: Federal Election Commission[51]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Solid D February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Solid D March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe D February 23, 2023

District 11

The incumbent is Democrat Nancy Pelosi, who was re-elected with 84.0% of the vote in 2022. Later that year, Pelosi announced she would step down from House leadership. Pelosi has announced she is seeking re-election in 2024.[52]

Declared

Filed paperwork

  • Elijah Blue (Libertarian)[54]

Formed exploratory committee

Endorsements

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Nancy Pelosi (D) $2,079,993 $2,093,145 $3,580,557
Source: Federal Election Commission[58]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Solid D February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Solid D March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe D February 23, 2023

District 12

Tony Daysog

The incumbent is Democrat Barbara Lee, who was re-elected with 90.5% of the vote in 2022. She is not seeking re-election, instead choosing to run for the U.S. Senate.[1]

Declared

Filed paperwork

  • Andre Todd (Democratic), businessman[63]

Declined

Endorsements

Tim Sanchez (D)
U.S. Representatives
Organizations
Jennifer Tran (D)
U.S. Representatives
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Tony Daysog (D) $1,100 $988 $111
Tim Sanchez (D) $71,026 $39,813 $31,212
Lateefah Simon (D) $597,949 $302,034 $295,914
Jennifer Tran (D) $75,223 $13,008 $62,214
Source: Federal Election Commission[86]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Solid D February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Solid D March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe D February 23, 2023

District 13

The incumbent is Republican John Duarte, who flipped the district and was elected with 50.2% of the vote in 2022.

Declared

Potential

  • John Duarte (Republican), incumbent U.S. Representative

Endorsements

John Duarte (R)
Local officials
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Phil Arballo (D) $54,573 $28,874 $25,699
Adam Gray (D) $40,815 $59,358 $35,831
John Duarte (R) $1,273,115 $297,221 $1,002,412
Source: Federal Election Commission[90]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Tossup February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Tossup March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Tossup February 23, 2023

District 14

The incumbent is Democrat Eric Swalwell, who has represented the district since 2013 and was re-elected with 69.3% of the vote in 2022.

Declared

  • Joseph Grcar (Republican), computational scientist[21]
  • Eric Swalwell (Democratic), incumbent U.S. Representative[8]

Endorsements

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Eric Swalwell (D) $1,337,828 $1,083,794 $882,634
Source: Federal Election Commission[92]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Solid D February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Solid D March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe D February 23, 2023

District 15

The incumbent is Democrat Kevin Mullin, who has represented the district since 2023, was elected with 55.5% of the vote in 2022.

Potential

Endorsements

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Kevin Mullin (D) $257.519 $216,285 $63,768
Source: Federal Election Commission[93]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Solid D February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Solid D March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe D February 23, 2023

District 16

The incumbent is Democrat Anna Eshoo, who was re-elected with 57.8% of the vote in 2022 against another Democrat.

Filed paperwork

Potential

  • Anna Eshoo (Democratic), incumbent U.S. Representative

Endorsements

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Anna Eshoo (D) $395,340 $242,604 $673,684
Source: Federal Election Commission[97]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Solid D February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Solid D March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe D February 23, 2023

District 17

The incumbent is Democrat Ro Khanna, who was re-elected with 70.9% of the vote in 2022. Khanna had expressed interest in running for U.S. Senate, but instead chose not to run and endorsed Barbara Lee.[98][99]

Declared

  • Ritesh Tandon (Democratic), software engineer and Republican runner-up for this district in 2020 and 2022[100]

Potential

  • Ro Khanna (Democratic), incumbent U.S. Representative

Endorsements

Ro Khanna (D)
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Ritesh Tandon (D) $107 $273 $142
Ro Khanna (D) $3,944,131 $992,291 $8,240,361
Source: Federal Election Commission[102]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Solid D February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Solid D March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe D February 23, 2023

District 18

Peter Hernandez

The incumbent is Democrat Zoe Lofgren, who was re-elected with 65.8% of the vote in 2022.

Declared

  • Peter Hernandez (Republican), former chair of the San Benito County Board of Supervisors and runner-up for this district in 2022[32]
  • Luele Kifle (Democratic), IT consultant[32]
  • Zoe Lofgren (Democratic), incumbent U.S. Representative[103]

Declined

Endorsements

Zoe Lofgren (D)
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Peter Hernandez (R) $25,632 $12,636 $15,294
Zoe Lofgren (D) $1,036,262 $363,981 $1,083,651
Source: Federal Election Commission[106]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Solid D February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Solid D March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe D February 23, 2023

District 19

The incumbent is Democrat Jimmy Panetta, who has represented the district since 2017 and was re-elected with 68.8% of the vote in 2022.

Filed paperwork

  • Jeff Gorman (Republican)[107]

Potential

Endorsements

Jimmy Panetta (D)

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Jeff Gorman (R) $250 $2,775 $0
Jimmy Panetta (D) $635,272 $367,755 $2,447,926
Source: Federal Election Commission[108]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Solid D February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Solid D March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe D February 23, 2023

District 20

The incumbent is Republican Kevin McCarthy, who was re-elected with 67.2% of the vote in 2022.

Declared

  • John Burrows (Democratic), Fresno public relations director[109]
  • Ben Dewell (no party preference), meteorologist and Democratic candidate for this district in 2022[21]
  • Kevin McCarthy (Republican), incumbent U.S. Representative and former Speaker of the House[8]
  • Andy Morales (Democratic), security officer[110]
  • Marisa Wood (Democratic), teacher and runner-up for this district in 2022[111]

Endorsements

Kevin McCarthy (R)
Local officials
Organizations
Political parties

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
John Burrows (D) $266,033 $229,213 $36,820
Kevin McCarthy (R) $9,148,826 $5,594,271 $9,042,565
Andy Morales (D) $65,786 $50,169 $15,616
Source: Federal Election Commission[113]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Solid R February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Solid R March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe R February 23, 2023

District 21

The incumbent is Democrat Jim Costa, who has represented the district since 2005 and was re-elected with 54.0% of the vote in 2022.

Declared

  • Jim Costa (Democratic), incumbent U.S. Representative[8]
  • Michael Maher (Republican), aviation business owner and runner-up for this district in 2022[114]

Endorsements

Jim Costa (D)
Michael Maher (R)
U.S. Representatives
State legislators
Political parties

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Jim Costa (D) $436,996 $201.870 $624,204
Michael Maher (R) $246,810 $63,137 $185,896
Source: Federal Election Commission[116]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Solid D February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Solid D March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe D February 23, 2023

District 22

The incumbent is Republican David Valadao, who was re-elected with 51.6% of the vote in 2022.

Declared

Potential

Endorsements

Melissa Hurtado (D)
Statewide officials
State legislators
Rudy Salas (D)
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Statewide officials
Labor unions
David Valadao (R)

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Rudy Salas (D) $6,839 $14,006 $7,241
David Valadao (R) $1,267,034 $332,169 $983,303
Source: Federal Election Commission[126]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Lean R February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Tilt R March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Tossup February 23, 2023

District 23

The incumbent is Republican Jay Obernolte, who has represented the district since 2021 and was re-elected with 61.0% of the vote in 2022.

Declared

  • Miguel Arceo (Democratic), progressive activist[21]
  • Derek Marshall (Democratic), community activist and runner-up for this district in 2022[127]

Potential

Endorsements

Jay Obernolte (R)
Local officials
Political parties

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Derek Marshall (D) $87,927 $44,876 $57,302
Jay Obernolte (R) $284,962 $98,887 $556,228
Source: Federal Election Commission[130]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Solid R February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Solid R March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe R February 23, 2023

District 24

The incumbent is Democrat Salud Carbajal, who has represented the district since 2017 and was re-elected with 60.7% of the vote in 2022.

Declared

  • Salud Carbajal (Democratic), incumbent U.S. Representative[8]
  • Thomas Cole (Republican), retired real estate developer[131]

Endorsements

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Salud Carbajal (D) $767,920 $255,872 $2,616,033
Thomas Cole (R) $1,000 $0 $1,000
Source: Federal Election Commission[133]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Solid D February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Solid D March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe D February 23, 2023

District 25

The incumbent is Democrat Raul Ruiz, who has represented the district since 2013 and was re-elected with 57.4% of the vote in 2022.

Declared

  • Raul Ruiz (Democratic), incumbent U.S. Representative[8]
  • Ceci Truman (Republican), businesswoman and candidate for this district in 2022[30]
  • Ian Weeks (Republican), financial planner[21]

Endorsements

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Raul Ruiz (D) $648,198 $338,199 $1,896,795
Ceci Truman (R) $2,595 $887 $1,617
Ian Weeks (R) $33,134 $5,986 $27.147
Source: Federal Election Commission[135]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Solid D February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Solid D March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe D February 23, 2023

District 26

The incumbent is Democrat Julia Brownley, who has represented the district since 2013 and was re-elected with 54.5% of the vote in 2022.

Declared

Filed paperwork

  • Michael Koslow (Republican)[136]
  • Joseph Marotta[137]

Endorsements

Michael Koslow (R)

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Julia Brownley (D) $442,227 $221,913 $569.506
Source: Federal Election Commission[140]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Solid D February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Solid D March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe D February 23, 2023

District 27

The incumbent is Republican Mike Garcia, who was re-elected with 53.2% of the vote in 2022.

Declared

Withdrawn

Endorsements

Mike Garcia (R)
Local officials
Organizations
Political parties
George Whitesides (D)

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Franky Carrillo (D) $26,715 $13,246 $13,468
George Whitesides (D) $1,522,088 $311,452 $1,210,635
Mike Garcia (R) $1,638,177 $579,195 $1,175,654
Source: Federal Election Commission[151]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[152] Tossup April 18, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Tossup March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Tossup February 23, 2023

District 28

The incumbent is Democrat Judy Chu, who has represented the district since 2013 and was re-elected with 66.2% of the vote in 2022.

Declared

  • Judy Chu (Democratic), incumbent U.S. Representative[8]
  • Kerry Lewis (Republican), activist[30]

Endorsements

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Judy Chu (D) $273,298 $311,365 $3,308,326
Source: Federal Election Commission[154]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Solid D February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Solid D March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe D February 23, 2023

District 29

Angelica Dueñas

The incumbent is Democrat Tony Cárdenas, who has represented the district since 2013 and was re-elected with 58.5% of the vote in 2022.

Declared

Potential

Endorsements

Tony Cárdenas (D)

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Angelica Dueñas (D) $4,404 $4,794 $5,443
Tony Cárdenas (D) $426,699 $280,340 $385,630
Source: Federal Election Commission[155]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Solid D February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Solid D March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe D February 23, 2023

District 30

The incumbent is Democrat Adam Schiff, who was re-elected with 71.1% of the vote in 2022 against another Democrat. He is not seeking re-election, instead choosing to run for the U.S. Senate.[2]

Declared
Filed paperwork
Declined
Declared
  • Alex Balekian, physician[156]
  • Eric Sawchuk, businessman and community activist[21]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Solid D February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Solid D March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe D February 23, 2023

District 31

Mary Ann Lutz
Ricardo Vazques

The incumbent is Democrat Grace Napolitano, who was re-elected with 59.5% of the vote in 2022. Napolitano decided to retire rather than seek re-election.[4]

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

Bob Archuleta (D)
U.S. Representatives
Statewide officials
Labor unions
Gil Cisneros (D)
U.S. Representatives
Local officials
Party officials
Labor unions
Organizations
Grace Napolitano (D) (declined)

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Bob Archuleta (D) $334,812 $5,780 $329,031
Mary Ann Lutz (D) $147,962 $1,365 $146,597
Source: Federal Election Commission[179]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[13] Solid D February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Solid D March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe D February 23, 2023

District 32

The incumbent is Democrat Brad Sherman, who has represented the district since 2013 and was re-elected with 69.2% of the vote in 2022.

Potential

Endorsements

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Brad Sherman (D) $364,462 $244,644 $3,088,590
Source: Federal Election Commission[180]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Solid D February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Solid D March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe D February 23, 2023

District 33

The incumbent is Democrat Pete Aguilar, who has represented the district since 2015 and was re-elected with 61.3% of the vote in 2022.

Potential

Withdrew

Endorsements

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Pete Aguilar (D) $1,850,317 $1,260,743 $2,169,329
Source: Federal Election Commission[183]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Solid D February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Solid D March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe D February 23, 2023

District 34

David Kim

The incumbent is Democrat Jimmy Gomez, who has represented the district since 2017 and was re-elected with 51.3% of the vote in 2022.

Declared

Filed paperwork

  • Calvin Lee (Republican)[185]

Potential

  • Jimmy Gomez (Democratic), incumbent U.S. Representative

Endorsements

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Jimmy Gomez (D) $562,800 $145,160 $973,142
Source: Federal Election Commission[187]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Solid D February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Solid D March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe D February 23, 2023

District 35

The incumbent is Democrat Norma Torres, who has represented the district since 2015 and was re-elected with 57.4% of the vote in 2022.

Declared

Endorsements

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Melissa May (D) $4,070 $2,686 $1,383
Norma Torres (D) $187,688 $259,353 $276,581
Source: Federal Election Commission[188]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Solid D February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Solid D March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe D February 23, 2023

District 36

The incumbent is Democrat Ted Lieu, who has represented the district since 2015 and was re-elected with 69.8% of the vote in 2022.

Filed paperwork

  • Michael Cheaure (Democratic), creative director[189]

Potential

  • Ted Lieu (Democratic), incumbent U.S. Representative

Endorsements

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Ted Lieu (D) $645,152 $579,040 $860,502
Source: Federal Election Commission[190]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Solid D February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Solid D March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe D February 23, 2023

District 37

The incumbent is Democrat Sydney Kamlager-Dove, who has represented the district since 2023, was elected with 64.0% of the vote in 2022.

Potential

Endorsements

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D) $301,204 $183,959 $219,123
Source: Federal Election Commission[192]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Solid D February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Solid D March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe D February 23, 2023

District 38

The incumbent is Democrat Linda Sánchez, who has represented the district since 2013 and was re-elected with 58.1% of the vote in 2022.

Declared

Endorsements

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Linda Sánchez (D) $440,099 $282,774 $600,469
Source: Federal Election Commission[194]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Solid D February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Solid D March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe D February 23, 2023

District 39

The incumbent is Democrat Mark Takano, who has represented the district since 2013 and was re-elected with 57.7% of the vote in 2022.

Potential

  • Mark Takano (Democratic), incumbent U.S. Representative

Endorsements

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Mark Takano (D) $352,468 $287,843 $555,830
Source: Federal Election Commission[197]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Solid D February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Solid D March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe D February 23, 2023

District 40

Joe Kerr

The incumbent is Republican Young Kim, who was re-elected with 56.8% of the vote in 2022.

Declared

Endorsements

Joe Kerr (D)
U.S. Representatives
Statewide officials
State senators
State assemblymembers
Local officials
Labor unions
Allyson Muñiz Damikolas (D)

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Allyson Muñiz Damikolas (D) $155,008 $24,223 $130,785
Joe Kerr (D) $120,427 $706 $119,720
Young Kim (R) $1,953,026 $698,780 $1,653,724
Source: Federal Election Commission[208]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Likely R February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Likely R March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Likely R February 23, 2023

District 41

Brian Hawkins
Tim Sheridan

The incumbent is Republican Ken Calvert, who was re-elected with 52.3% of the vote in 2022.

Declared

Endorsements

Ken Calvert (R)
Will Rollins (D)
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Labor unions
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Ken Calvert (R) $1,916,763 $445,549 $1,541,016
Brian Hawkins (D) $651 $399 $251
Will Rollins (D) $905,136 $130,428 $819,641
Tim Sheridan (D) $8,316 $1,201 $7,115
Source: Federal Election Commission[225]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[49] Tossup February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Lean R March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Lean R February 23, 2023

District 42

The incumbent is Democrat Robert Garcia, who has represented the district since 2023, was elected with 68.4% of the vote in 2022.

Declared

  • Nicole López (Democratic), communications consultant and candidate for this district in 2022[21]

Potential

Endorsements

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Nicole López (D) $1,152 $221 $1,231
Robert Garcia (D) $391,795 $274,282 $448,074
Source: Federal Election Commission[226]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Solid D February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Solid D March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe D February 23, 2023

District 43

The incumbent is Democrat Maxine Waters, who has represented the district since 1991 and was re-elected with 77.3% of the vote in 2022.

Potential

Endorsements

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Maxine Waters (D) $140,135 $267,531 $108,236
Source: Federal Election Commission[227]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Solid D February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Solid D March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe D February 23, 2023

District 44

The incumbent is Democrat Nanette Barragán, who has represented the district since 2017 and was re-elected with 72.2% of the vote in 2022.

Declared

Endorsements

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Nanette Barragán (D) $261,611 $306,164 $1,459,218
Source: Federal Election Commission[228]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Solid D February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Solid D March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe D February 23, 2023

District 45

The incumbent is Republican Michelle Steel, who was re-elected with 52.4% of the vote in 2022.

Candidates

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Lean R February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Lean R March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Lean R February 23, 2023

District 46

The incumbent is Democrat Lou Correa, who has represented the district since 2017 and was re-elected with 61.8% of the vote in 2022.

Potential

  • Lou Correa (Democratic), incumbent U.S. Representative

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Lou Correa (D) $292,827 $118,623 $1,694,346
Source: Federal Election Commission[233]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Solid D February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Solid D March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe D February 23, 2023

District 47

The incumbent is Democrat Katie Porter, who was re-elected with 51.7% of the vote in 2022. She is not seeking re-election, instead choosing to run for the U.S. Senate.[3]

Declared

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[239] Lean D February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Tilt D March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Tossup February 23, 2023

District 48

Stephen Houlahan

The incumbent is Republican Darrell Issa, who has represented the district since 2021 and was re-elected with 60.4% of the vote in 2022.

Declared

  • Stephen Houlahan (Democratic), former Santee city councilor and runner-up for this district in 2022[30]
  • Darrell Issa (Republican), incumbent U.S. Representative[8]

Endorsements

Stephen Houlahan (D)

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Darrell Issa (R) $330,695 $229,279 $719,005
Source: Federal Election Commission[241]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Solid R February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Solid R March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe R February 23, 2023

District 49

The incumbent is Democrat Mike Levin, who was re-elected with 52.6% of the vote in 2022.

Declared

Endorsements

Sheryl Adams (R)
U.S. Representatives
Matt Gunderson (R)
Margarita Wilkinson (R)
Local Officials

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Sheryl Adams (R) $123,425 $11,048 $112,376
Matt Gunderson (R) $227,230 $8,432 $268,797
Mike Levin (D) $1,185,537 $464,640 $856,347
Source: Federal Election Commission[253]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Likely D February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Likely D March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Likely D February 23, 2023

District 50

The incumbent is Democrat Scott Peters, who has represented the district since 2013 and was re-elected with 62.8% of the vote in 2022.

Declared

Endorsements

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Timothy Bilash (D) $14,259 $13,030 $1,515
Scott Peters (D) $598,033 $332,444 $1,999,545
Source: Federal Election Commission[255]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Solid D February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Solid D March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe D February 23, 2023

District 51

Bill Wells

The incumbent is Democrat Sara Jacobs, who has represented the district since 2021 and was re-elected with 61.9% of the vote in 2022.

Declared

  • Stan Caplan (no party preference), businessman and Republican runner-up for this district in 2022[21]
  • Sara Jacobs (Democratic), incumbent U.S. Representative[8]
  • Bill Wells (Republican), mayor of El Cajon[256]

Endorsements

Bill Wells (R)
Local officials
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Bill Welds (R) $250,497 $69,273 $188,402
Sara Jacobs (D) $498,447 $368,161 $220,343
Source: Federal Election Commission[258]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Solid D February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Solid D March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe D February 23, 2023

District 52

The incumbent is Democrat Juan Vargas, who has represented the district since 2013 and was re-elected with 66.7% of the vote in 2022.

Declared

Endorsements

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Juan Vargas (D) $214,718 $139,775 $294,487
Source: Federal Election Commission[259]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Solid D February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Solid D March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe D February 23, 2023

Notes

  1. Numbered as the 4th district prior to the 2020 redistricting cycle.
  2. This district was numbered as the 20th district prior to the 2010 redistricting cycle, and as the 16th district from then until the 2020 redistricting cycle.
  3. This district was numbered as the 18th district prior to the 2020 redistricting cycle.
  4. This district was numbered as the 42nd district prior to the 2020 redistricting cycle.
  5. This district was numbered as the 45th district prior to the 2020 redistricting cycle.

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