2020 United States Senate election in Virginia

The 2020 United States Senate election in Virginia was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Virginia, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Warner won reelection to a third term against Republican nominee Daniel Gade.

See also: 2020 United States Senate elections

2020 United States Senate election in Virginia
November 3, 2020
 
Nominee Mark Warner Daniel Gade
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 2,466,500 1,934,199
Percentage 56.0% 43.9%
Warner:      20–30%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Gade:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      50%
     No data
U.S. senator before election

Mark Warner
Democratic

 Elected U.S. Senator

Mark Warner
Democratic

Elections in Virginia
Federal government
U.S. President
U.S. Senate
U.S. House
State government
Governor
Lieutenant Governor
Attorney General
Senate
House of Delegates
State elections
Ballot measures
Statewide
Fairfax County
2016
Alexandria
Mayor
(List)
Hampton
Mayor
Henrico County
Commonwealth's Attorney
Norfolk
Mayor
Richmond
Mayor
City Council
Virginia Beach
Mayor
City Council

Of Virginia's 20 most populous counties and independent cities, Warner won 18, losing only Hanover and Spotsylvania.[1]

Background

Incumbent Senator Mark Warner first won election in 2008 getting 65% of the vote over former governor Jim Gilmore.[2] In 2014, during the Tea Party movement, and declining voter turnout, Senator Warner won re-election with 49.1% of the vote by a margin of 0.8% against former chairman of the Republican National Committee Ed Gillespie.[3]

Democratic primary

Nominee

Republican primary

Seven Republicans declared that they would compete in the race, but only three made the threshold of 3,500 signatures.[7][8] The original signature threshold was 10,000 signatures, but was lowered to 3,500 following a suit by Omari Faulkner.[9] The primary was on June 23.

Nominee

Eliminated in primary
  • Alissa Baldwin, teacher[11]
  • Thomas Speciale, U.S. Army veteran and intelligence officer[12]

Failed to qualify
  • Blaine Dunn, Frederick County supervisor[13]
  • Omari Faulkner, Navy reservist and former Georgetown University basketball player[14][9]
  • Roger Franklin[15]
  • Victor Williams, attorney and activist[16]

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements
Daniel Gade
National Party Officials
U.S. Representatives
State Senators
State Delegates
Individuals

Results
Results by county:
Gade
  •   Gade—>90%
  •   Gade—80–90%
  •   Gade—70–80%
  •   Gade—60–70%
  •   Gade—50–60%
  •   Gade—40–50%
Republican primary results[27]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Daniel Gade 208,754 67.40%
Republican Alissa Baldwin 56,165 18.13%
Republican Thomas Speciale 44,795 14.46%
Total votes 309,714 100.0%

Independents

Withdrawn

General election

Virginia's 2020 Senate election was widely considered to be a safe hold for Mark Warner, as pre-election polling showed a massive lead for Warner. Warner's razor-thin victory over Ed Gillespie 6 years earlier was widely considered to be a fluke owing to lowered turnout and complacency. On election day, Warner was declared the winner as soon as polls closed based on exit polling alone. The higher turnout is attributable to being held concurrently with the Presidential Election. Warner also notably outperformed Biden in the state, albeit narrowly.

Warner's victory was largely contributed from the DC Metropolitan area in north Virginia. This is the area that has shifted Virginia from a Republican stronghold in the early 2000s to a Democratic stronghold.

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[31] Safe D October 29, 2020
Inside Elections[32] Safe D October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[33] Safe D November 2, 2020
Daily Kos[34] Safe D October 30, 2020
Politico[35] Safe D November 2, 2020
RCP[36] Likely D October 23, 2020
DDHQ[37] Safe D November 3, 2020
538[38] Safe D November 2, 2020
Economist[39] Safe D November 2, 2020

Endorsements
Mark Warner (D)
Labor Unions
Organizations
Individuals
  • John Warner, former U.S. Senator from Virginia (1979-2009) (Republican)[53]
Daniel Gade (R)
National party officials
U.S. Representatives
State Senators
State Delegates
Individuals

Polling
Graphical summary
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Mark
Warner (D)		 Daniel
Gade (R)		 Other/
Undecided
Swayable Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[lower-alpha 2] October 27 – November 1, 2020 283 (LV) ± 8.3% 61% 39% –
Data for Progress October 27 – November 1, 2020 690 (LV) ± 3.7% 57% 42% 1%[lower-alpha 3]
Roanoke College October 23–29, 2020 802 (LV) ± 3.4% 55% 39% 6%[lower-alpha 4]
Christopher Newport University October 15–27, 2020 908 (LV) ± 3.4% 57% 37% 6%[lower-alpha 5]
Swayable October 23–26, 2020 332 (LV) ± 7.3% 60% 40% –
Virginia Commonwealth University October 13–22, 2020 709 (LV) ± 4.93% 55% 38% 8%[lower-alpha 6]
Schar School/Washington Post October 13–19, 2020 908 (LV) ± 4% 57% 39% 4%[lower-alpha 7]
Civiqs/Daily Kos October 11–14, 2020 1,231 (LV) ± 3.1% 54% 43% 2%[lower-alpha 8]
Reconnect Research/Roanoke College September 30 – October 12, 2020 602 (LV) – 55% 38% 7%[lower-alpha 9]
Roanoke College/Reconnect Research September 30 – October 12, 2020 602 (LV) ± 5.4% 55% 38% 7%[lower-alpha 9]
Cygnal (R)[lower-alpha 10] October 9–11, 2020 607 (LV) – 51% 44% 5%[lower-alpha 11]
Cygnal (R)[lower-alpha 12][lower-alpha 10] September 22–25, 2020 600 (LV) – 51% 41% –
Christopher Newport University September 9–21, 2020 796 (LV) ± 3.9% 52% 39% 9%[lower-alpha 13]
Virginia Commonwealth University Archived September 15, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[lower-alpha 14] August 28 – September 7, 2020 692 (LV) ± 6.22% 55% 38% 6[lower-alpha 15]
Roanoke College August 9–22, 2020 566 (LV) ± 4.1% 55% 34% 10%[lower-alpha 16]
Hypothetical polling
with Mark Warner and Generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Mark
Warner (D)		 Generic
Republican		 Other Undecided
Roanoke College May 3–16, 2020 563 (LV) ± 4.1% 48% 31% – –
with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Generic
Democrat		 Generic
Republican		 Other Undecided
Ipsos/University of Virginia Feb 15–19, 2019 636 (A) ± 4.0% 43% 26% 2% 23%

Results
United States Senate election in Virginia, 2020[54]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Mark Warner (incumbent) 2,466,500 55.99% +6.84%
Republican Daniel Gade 1,934,199 43.91% -4.43%
Write-in 4,388 0.10% +0.02%
Total votes 4,405,087 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold
By county and independent city
County / City Mark Warner
Democratic		 Daniel Gade
Republican		 Write-in Margin Total
votes
# % # % # % # %
Accomack 7,939 47.23 8,863 52.72 9 0.05 -924 -5.50 16,811
Albemarle 42,730 67.31 20,700 32.61 55 0.09 22,030 34.70 63,485
Alexandria 65,071 79.37 16,802 20.50 107 0.13 48,269 58.88 81,980
Alleghany 2,822 35.30 5,159 64.53 14 0.18 -2,337 -29.23 7,995
Amelia 2,559 32.67 5,266 67.23 8 0.10 -2,707 -34.56 7,833
Amherst 6,273 37.11 10,624 62.85 6 0.04 -4,351 -25.74 16,903
Appomattox 2,741 30.26 6,306 69.63 10 0.11 -3,565 -39.36 9,057
Arlington 102,880 79.37 26,590 20.51 154 0.12 76,290 58.85 129,624
Augusta 12,224 29.07 29,794 70.86 26 0.06 -17,570 -41.79 42,044
Bath 744 30.57 1,688 69.35 2 0.08 -944 -38.78 2,434
Bedford 13,872 28.71 34,407 71.21 39 0.08 -20,535 -42.53 48,279
Bland 732 21.62 2,651 78.29 3 0.09 -1,919 -56.72 3,383
Botetourt 6,512 31.43 14,190 68.49 15 0.07 -7,678 -37.06 20,717
Bristol 2,787 36.25 4,892 63.63 9 0.12 -2,105 -27.38 7,688
Brunswick 4,727 59.68 3,192 40.30 2 0.03 1,535 19.38 7,921
Buchanan 2,522 25.90 7,202 73.97 12 0.12 -4,680 -48.07 9,736
Buckingham 3,656 45.40 4,392 54.55 4 0.05 -736 -9.14 8,052
Buena Vista 1,020 37.13 1,724 62.76 3 0.11 -704 -25.63 2,747
Campbell 9,278 31.29 20,337 68.60 32 0.11 -11,059 -37.30 29,647
Caroline 8,124 50.23 8,036 49.68 14 0.09 88 0.54 16,174
Carroll 3,591 23.60 11,610 76.31 14 0.09 -8,019 -52.70 15,215
Charles City 2,700 61.29 1,704 38.68 1 0.02 996 22.61 4,405
Charlotte 2,522 40.95 3,633 59.00 3 0.05 -1,111 -18.04 6,158
Charlottesville 20,672 85.76 3,409 14.14 24 0.10 17,263 71.62 24,105
Chesapeake 68,129 53.90 58,154 46.00 125 0.10 9,975 7.89 126,408
Chesterfield 107,568 53.67 92,658 46.23 195 0.10 14,910 7.44 200,421
Clarke 4,052 43.69 5,214 56.22 8 0.09 -1,162 -12.53 9,274
Colonial Heights 3,143 35.16 5,788 64.74 9 0.10 -2,645 -29.59 8,940
Covington 1,157 45.46 1,386 54.46 2 0.08 -229 -9.00 2,545
Craig 757 24.09 2,381 75.76 5 0.16 -1,624 -51.67 3,143
Culpeper 11,123 41.61 15,590 58.33 16 0.06 -4,467 -16.71 26,729
Cumberland 2,317 43.99 2,947 55.95 3 0.06 -630 -11.96 5,267
Danville 12,519 65.16 6,680 34.77 14 0.07 5,839 30.39 19,213
Dickenson 2,052 28.49 5,142 71.40 8 0.11 -3,090 -42.91 7,202
Dinwiddie 6,445 43.34 8,414 56.58 13 0.09 -1,969 -13.24 14,872
Emporia 1,618 69.38 712 30.53 2 0.09 906 38.85 2,332
Essex 3,194 52.25 2,917 47.72 2 0.03 277 4.53 6,113
Fairfax City 9,179 68.88 4,134 31.02 14 0.11 5,045 37.86 13,327
Fairfax County 415,791 69.89 178,395 29.99 736 0.12 237,396 39.90 594,922
Falls Church 7,016 79.95 1,750 19.94 10 0.11 5,266 60.00 8,776
Fauquier 17,468 41.15 24,937 58.75 41 0.10 -7,469 -17.60 42,446
Floyd 3,407 36.52 5,908 63.34 13 0.14 -2,501 -26.81 9,328
Fluvanna 7,830 49.81 7,880 50.13 9 0.06 -50 -0.32 15,719
Franklin City 2,549 64.35 1,410 35.60 2 0.05 1,139 28.76 3,961
Franklin County 9,907 33.65 19,505 66.26 27 0.09 -9,598 -32.60 29,439
Frederick 17,962 37.46 29,940 62.45 44 0.09 -11,978 -24.98 47,946
Fredericksburg 8,495 67.48 4,080 32.41 13 0.10 4,415 35.07 12,588
Galax 919 35.36 1,679 64.60 1 0.04 -760 -29.24 2,599
Giles 2,713 30.06 6,306 69.87 6 0.07 -3,593 -39.81 9,025
Gloucester 7,521 33.97 14,605 65.96 17 0.08 -7,084 -31.99 22,143
Goochland 6,730 40.26 9,972 59.65 15 0.09 -3,242 -19.39 16,717
Grayson 1,946 24.56 5,972 75.36 7 0.09 -4,026 -50.80 7,925
Greene 4,529 40.45 6,661 59.49 6 0.05 -2,132 -19.04 11,196
Greensville 2,716 59.80 1,822 40.11 4 0.09 894 19.68 4,542
Halifax 8,258 45.65 9,824 54.31 6 0.03 -1,566 -8.66 18,088
Hampton 46,627 72.30 17,777 27.57 86 0.13 28,850 44.74 64,490
Hanover 25,864 37.04 43,893 62.86 69 0.10 -18,029 -25.82 69,826
Harrisonburg 11,116 66.30 5,634 33.60 17 0.10 5,482 32.70 16,767
Henrico 117,199 65.09 62,686 34.81 177 0.10 54,513 30.27 180,062
Henry 10,616 41.32 15,051 58.58 27 0.11 -4,435 -17.26 25,694
Highland 504 33.05 1,020 66.89 1 0.07 -516 -33.84 1,525
Hopewell 5,695 59.64 3,847 40.29 7 0.07 1,848 19.35 9,549
Isle of Wight 9,821 41.99 13,546 57.91 23 0.10 -3,725 -15.93 23,390
James City 25,685 52.07 23,600 47.84 41 0.08 2,085 4.23 49,326
King and Queen 1,705 41.74 2,372 58.07 8 0.20 -667 -16.33 4,085
King George 5,758 40.67 8,384 59.22 15 0.11 -2,626 -18.55 14,157
King William 3,447 32.72 7,079 67.20 9 0.09 -3,632 -34.48 10,535
Lancaster 3,457 48.64 3,648 51.32 3 0.04 -191 -2.69 7,108
Lee 2,240 22.74 7,600 77.16 10 0.10 -5,360 -54.42 9,850
Lexington 1,853 67.36 895 32.53 3 0.11 958 34.82 2,751
Loudoun 137,814 61.80 84,991 38.12 178 0.08 52,823 23.69 222,983
Louisa 8,700 39.98 13,039 59.92 20 0.09 -4,339 -19.94 21,759
Lunenburg 2,531 42.92 3,362 57.01 4 0.07 -831 -14.09 5,897
Lynchburg 18,587 51.85 17,208 48.00 53 0.15 1,379 3.85 35,848
Madison 2,925 36.16 5,156 63.75 7 0.09 -2,231 -27.58 8,088
Manassas 10,547 62.82 6,227 37.09 14 0.08 4,320 25.73 16,788
Manassas Park 4,084 67.86 1,929 32.05 5 0.08 2,155 35.81 6,018
Martinsville 3,957 67.72 1,881 32.19 5 0.09 2,076 35.53 5,843
Mathews 1,943 33.48 3,856 66.44 5 0.09 -1,913 -32.96 5,804
Mecklenburg 7,004 44.08 8,871 55.83 13 0.08 -1,867 -11.75 15,888
Middlesex 2,658 39.44 4,080 60.53 2 0.03 -1,422 -21.09 6,741
Montgomery 24,589 55.09 19,992 44.79 52 0.12 4,597 10.30 44,633
Nelson 4,673 50.75 4,526 49.16 8 0.09 147 1.60 9,207
New Kent 4,764 33.50 9,449 66.44 9 0.06 -4,685 -32.94 14,222
Newport News 53,265 67.61 25,428 32.27 95 0.12 27,837 35.33 78,788
Norfolk 66,152 74.01 23,084 25.83 144 0.16 43,068 48.18 89,380
Northampton 3,889 58.16 2,795 41.80 3 0.04 1,094 16.37 6,684
Northumberland 3,386 44.00 4,306 55.95 4 0.05 -920 -11.95 7,696
Norton 591 37.33 988 62.41 4 0.25 -397 -25.08 1,583
Nottoway 3,136 44.72 3,869 55.17 8 0.11 -733 -10.45 7,013
Orange 8,392 40.78 12,170 59.14 17 0.08 -3,778 -18.36 20,579
Page 3,420 27.57 8,968 72.31 15 0.12 -5,548 -44.73 12,403
Patrick 2,310 25.11 6,875 74.74 13 0.14 -4,565 -49.63 9,198
Petersburg 12,413 89.09 1,505 10.80 15 0.11 10,908 78.29 13,933
Pittsylvania 11,509 34.33 21,993 65.60 24 0.07 -10,484 -31.27 33,526
Poquoson 2,212 28.31 5,594 71.60 7 0.09 -3,382 -43.29 7,813
Portsmouth 31,520 71.97 12,241 27.95 35 0.08 19,279 44.02 43,796
Powhatan 5,660 28.82 13,972 71.14 8 0.04 -8,312 -42.32 19,640
Prince Edward 5,195 54.68 4,291 45.17 14 0.15 904 9.52 9,500
Prince George 7,199 42.22 9,842 57.72 10 0.06 -2,643 -15.50 17,051
Prince William 144,162 64.24 80,070 35.68 183 0.08 64,092 28.56 224,415
Pulaski 5,941 34.63 11,203 65.29 14 0.08 -5,262 -30.67 17,158
Radford 3,551 56.82 2,690 43.04 9 0.14 861 13.78 6,250
Rappahannock 2,219 44.76 2,734 55.15 4 0.08 -515 -10.39 4,957
Richmond City 91,222 83.27 18,205 16.62 124 0.11 73,017 66.65 109,551
Richmond County 1,687 41.79 2,347 58.14 3 0.07 -660 -16.35 4,037
Roanoke City 28,345 66.08 14,499 33.80 50 0.12 13,846 32.28 42,894
Roanoke County 24,043 42.38 32,642 57.54 48 0.08 -8,599 -15.16 56,733
Rockbridge 4,631 37.73 7,637 62.22 6 0.05 -3,006 -24.49 12,274
Rockingham 13,739 31.61 29,700 68.33 29 0.07 -15,961 -36.72 43,468
Russell 3,288 24.79 9,962 75.11 13 0.10 -6,674 -50.37 13,250
Salem 5,697 44.02 7,235 55.90 11 0.08 -1,538 -11.88 12,943
Scott 2,191 20.38 8,543 79.46 17 0.16 -6,352 -59.08 10,751
Shenandoah 7,313 31.06 16,223 68.89 12 0.05 -8,910 -37.84 23,548
Smyth 3,973 28.38 10,013 71.52 15 0.11 -6,040 -43.14 14,001
Southampton 4,123 42.88 5,492 57.12 0 0.00 -1,369 -14.24 9,615
Spotsylvania 35,485 47.50 39,120 52.37 98 0.13 -3,635 -4.87 74,703
Stafford 40,566 51.97 37,389 47.90 100 0.13 3,177 4.07 78,055
Staunton 7,289 56.72 5,546 43.16 15 0.12 1,743 13.56 12,850
Suffolk 29,275 59.41 19,955 40.50 45 0.09 9,320 18.91 49,275
Surry 2,439 55.43 1,958 44.50 3 0.07 481 10.93 4,400
Sussex 2,924 57.62 2,146 42.29 5 0.10 778 15.33 5,075
Tazewell 4,504 23.03 15,033 76.87 20 0.10 -10,529 -53.84 19,557
Virginia Beach 120,753 53.91 103,037 46.00 202 0.09 17,716 7.91 223,992
Warren 7,075 33.73 13,874 66.15 24 0.11 -6,799 -32.42 20,973
Washington 7,744 27.24 20,656 72.66 27 0.09 -12,912 -45.42 28,427
Waynesboro 5,275 49.71 5,324 50.17 12 0.11 -49 -0.46 10,611
Westmoreland 4,821 49.02 5,009 50.94 4 0.04 -188 -1.91 9,834
Williamsburg 4,811 70.33 2,020 29.53 10 0.15 2,791 40.80 6,841
Winchester 6,898 57.58 5,076 42.37 6 0.05 1,822 15.21 11,980
Wise 4,128 25.41 12,096 74.46 21 0.13 -7,968 -49.05 16,245
Wythe 4,043 27.24 10,787 72.68 12 0.08 -6,744 -45.44 14,842
York 18,025 46.73 20,524 53.21 20 0.05 -2,499 -6.48 38,569
Totals 2,466,500 55.99 1,934,199 43.91 4,388 0.10 532,301 12.08 4,405,087
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Notes
  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  3. "Other candidate or write-in" with 1%
  4. "Refused/would not vote" with 2%; Undecided with 4%
  5. "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 6%
  6. "Undecided/Refused" with 8%
  7. "Other" and "Neither" with 0%; would not vote with no voters; Undecided with 4%
  8. "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 2%
  9. Undecided with 7%
  10. Poll conducted by Daniel Gade's campaign
  11. Undecided with 5%
  12. Archived October 4, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  13. "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 8%
  14. Archived September 15, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  15. "Don't know/refused" with 6%
  16. "Refused" with 0%

References
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Official campaign websites
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