2020 United States Senate election in Minnesota
The 2020 United States Senate election in Minnesota was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Minnesota, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the U.S. Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and other state and local elections. Some Republican pundits and strategists believed Minnesota to be a potential pickup opportunity due to its increasingly favorable demographics and unexpectedly close result in the 2016 presidential election, along with potential backlash from the 2020 George Floyd protests, originating after the murder of George Floyd in Minneapolis. But every poll showed incumbent Democratic Senator Tina Smith in the lead by varying degrees.
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Smith: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Lewis: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Minnesota |
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Smith was reelected to a full term in office by a margin of 5.2 points, making this the closest Senate election in Minnesota since 2008. The primary took place on August 11.[1]
Democratic primary
Nominee
- Tina Smith, incumbent U.S. Senator[2]
Eliminated in primary
Endorsements
Tina Smith
- U.S. Senators
- Amy Klobuchar, U.S. Senator from Minnesota; former 2020 presidential candidate[9]
- Organizations
- Brady Campaign[10]
- Council for a Livable World[11]
- EMILY's List[12]
- End Citizens United[13]
- Everytown for Gun Safety[14]
- Feminist Majority PAC[15]
- Giffords[16]
- Human Rights Campaign[17]
- J Street PAC[18]
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs[19]
- League of Conservation Voters[20]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America[21]
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare[22]
- National Organization for Women[23]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[24]
- Population Connection[25]
- Stonewall DFL[26]
- Women's Political Committee[27]
- Women Winning[28]
- Labor unions
- Education Minnesota[29]
- Minnesota State AFL–CIO[30]
Results
Results by county:
Map legend
- Smith—>90%
- Smith—80–90%
- Smith—70–80%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic (DFL) | Tina Smith (incumbent) | 497,498 | 87.14% | |
| Democratic (DFL) | Paula Overby | 30,497 | 5.34% | |
| Democratic (DFL) | Ahmad Hassan | 20,037 | 3.51% | |
| Democratic (DFL) | Steve Carlson | 16,429 | 2.88% | |
| Democratic (DFL) | Christopher Seymore | 6,480 | 1.13% | |
| Total votes | 570,941 | 100.00% | ||
Republican primary
Nominee
- Jason Lewis, former U.S. Representative for Minnesota's 2nd congressional district[32]
Eliminated in primary
Withdrawn
- Rob Barrett Jr., assistant professor at North Central University[35][5]
- Christopher Chamberlin, candidate for governor, U.S. senator, and U.S. representative in 2018 and libertarian activist[36][5]
- Forest Hyatt, Republican candidate for the 2018 United States Senate special election in Minnesota[3][37][5]
- Theron Preston Washington[38][5]
Declined
- Donna Bergstrom, nominee for Lieutenant Governor of Minnesota in 2018[39]
- Kurt Daudt, minority leader of the Minnesota House of Representatives[40]
- Bill Guidera, attorney and former 21st Century Fox executive[41]
- Karin Housley, state senator and Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018[42]
- Mike Lindell, CEO of My Pillow[43]
- Doug Wardlow, former state representative and Republican nominee for Attorney General of Minnesota in 2018[44]
Endorsements
Jason Lewis
- U.S. President
- Political Organizations
Results
Results by county:
Map legend
- Lewis—80–90%
- Lewis—70–80%
- Lewis—60–70%
- Lewis—50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jason Lewis | 191,290 | 78.11% | |
| Republican | Cynthia Gail | 17,675 | 7.22% | |
| Republican | John Berman | 16,213 | 6.62% | |
| Republican | Bob Carney Jr. | 10,503 | 4.29% | |
| Republican | James Reibestein | 9,210 | 3.76% | |
| Total votes | 244,891 | 100.00% | ||
Other candidates
Nominee
- Oliver Steinberg[5]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grassroots—LC | Oliver Steinberg | 3,275 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 3,275 | 100.00% | ||
Nominee
- Kevin O'Connor[5]
Primary results
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County Results for Kevin O'Connor:
Map legend
- 8%
- 7%
- 6%
- 5%
- 4%
- 3%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legal Marijuana Now | Kevin O'Connor | 6,996 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 6,996 | 100.00% | ||
General election
Debate
Two general election debates were held. The first, on October 2, 2020, was hosted by Minnesota Public Radio and was attended by Smith and Lewis.[50] The second debate was hosted by Twin Cities PBS on October 23, 2020, and attended only by Lewis.[51]
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[52] | Safe D | October 29, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[53] | Safe D | October 28, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[54] | Likely D | November 2, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[55] | Likely D | October 30, 2020 |
| Politico[56] | Likely D | November 2, 2020 |
| RCP[57] | Tossup | October 23, 2020 |
| DDHQ[58] | Likely D | November 3, 2020 |
| 538[59] | Safe D | November 2, 2020 |
| Economist[60] | Likely D | November 2, 2020 |
Endorsements
Tina Smith (D)
- U.S. Senators
- Kirsten Gillibrand, U.S. Senator from New York; former 2020 presidential candidate[61]
- Amy Klobuchar, U.S. Senator from Minnesota; former 2020 presidential candidate[9]
- Elizabeth Warren, U.S. Senator from Massachusetts; former 2020 presidential candidate[62]
- Organizations
- Brady Campaign[10]
- Council for a Livable World[11]
- EMILY's List[12]
- End Citizens United[13]
- Everytown for Gun Safety[14]
- Feminist Majority PAC[15]
- Giffords[16]
- Human Rights Campaign[17]
- J Street PAC[18]
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs[19]
- League of Conservation Voters[20]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America[21]
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare[22]
- National Organization for Women[23]
- Natural Resources Defense Council Action Fund[63]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[24]
- Population Connection[25]
- Rachel's Action Network[64]
- Stonewall DFL[26]
- Women's Political Committee[27]
- Women Winning[28]
- Labor unions
- American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees Council 5[65]
- Education Minnesota[29]
- Minnesota State AFL–CIO[30]
- National Education Association[66]
- Service Employees International Union Minnesota State Council[67]
- United Auto Workers[68]
- Newspapers
Jason Lewis (R)
- U.S. Executive Branch officials
- Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States[45]
- Mike Pence, 48th Vice President of the United States[70]
- U.S. Representatives
- Jim Hagedorn, Congressman for Minnesota's 1st Congressional District[71]
- Other Individuals
- Mike Lindell, CEO of My Pillow Inc. and campaign chair for Trump's reelection campaign in Minnesota[72]
- Organizations
- Republican Party of Minnesota[46]
- Minnesota Fraternal Order of Police[73]
- Minnesota Police and Peace Officers Association[74]
- National Federation of Independent Business[75]
- United States Chamber of Commerce[76]
- Newspapers
- Alexandria Echo Press[77]
- Bemidji Pioneer[78]
- Brainerd Dispatch[79]
- Detroit Lakes Tribune[80]
- Duluth News Tribune[81]
- Park Rapids Enterprise[82]
- Red Wing Republican Eagle[83]
- Rochester Post-Bulletin[84]
- Wadena Pioneer Journal[85]
- West Central Tribune[86]
- Worthington Daily Globe[85]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tina Smith (D) |
Jason Lewis (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | October 31 – November 1, 2020 | 450 (LV) | 4.6% | 50% | 39% | 2%[lower-alpha 1] | 9% |
| Data for Progress | October 27 – November 1, 2020 | 1,259 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 54% | 44% | 2%[lower-alpha 2] | – |
| Swayable | October 23 – November 1, 2020 | 430 (LV) | ± 6.1% | 55% | 46% | – | – |
| Public Policy Polling | October 29–30, 2020 | 770 (V) | – | 51% | 42% | – | 6% |
| Targoz Market Research/PollSmart | October 25–30, 2020 | 1,138 (LV) | – | 53% | 44% | 3%[lower-alpha 3] | – |
| St. Cloud State University | October 10–29, 2020 | 372 (A) | ± 6.7% | 53% | 36% | – | – |
| SurveyUSA Archived October 31, 2020, at the Wayback Machine | October 23–27, 2020 | 649 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 45% | 42% | 3%[lower-alpha 4] | 10% |
| Gravis Marketing | October 24–26, 2020 | 657 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 53% | 39% | – | 8% |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos | October 17–20, 2020 | 840 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 54% | 43% | 2%[lower-alpha 5] | 1% |
| SurveyUSA Archived October 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine | October 16–20, 2020 | 625 (LV) | ± 5% | 43% | 42% | 3%[lower-alpha 4] | 12% |
| Change Research | October 12–15, 2020[lower-alpha 6] | 1,021 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 48% | 44% | 4%[lower-alpha 7] | 5% |
| SurveyUSA Archived October 11, 2020, at the Wayback Machine | October 1–6, 2020 | 929 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 44% | 37% | 4%[lower-alpha 8] | 16% |
| Suffolk University | September 20–24, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 35% | 6%[lower-alpha 9] | 14% |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | September 21–23, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 41% | – | 10% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | September 12–17, 2020 | 718 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 51% | 36% | 2%[lower-alpha 10] | 11% |
| CBS News/YouGov | September 9–11, 2020 | 1,087 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 47% | 40% | 2%[lower-alpha 1] | 10% |
| Siena College/NYT Upshot | September 8–10, 2020 | 814 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 49% | 40% | 0%[lower-alpha 11] | 11%[lower-alpha 12] |
| SurveyUSA | September 4–7, 2020 | 553 (LV) | ± 5.2% | 47% | 36% | 3%[lower-alpha 4] | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling | September 3–4, 2020 | 877 (V) | ± 3.3% | 49% | 41% | 3%[lower-alpha 13] | 7% |
| Harper Polling (R)[upper-alpha 1] | August 30 – September 1, 2020 | 501 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 41% | – | 10% |
| Emerson College | August 8–10, 2020 | 733 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 45% | – | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 2] | July 22–23, 2020 | 1,218 (V) | ± 3.2% | 48% | 39% | – | 13% |
| Harper Polling (R)[upper-alpha 1] | May 26–28, 2020 | 510 (LV) | – | 46% | 35% | – | 20% |
Hypothetical polling
- with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Generic Democrat |
Generic Republican |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPP | Sep 3–4, 2020 | 877 (V) | ± 3.3% | 51% | 44% | – | 4% |
| Harper Polling/Jason Lewis[upper-alpha 1] | Aug 30 – Sep 1, 2020 | 501 (LV) | ± 4.38% | 45% | 43% | 3%[lower-alpha 13] | 9% |
| Emerson College | Aug 8–10, 2020 | 733 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 46% | – | 7% |
| Harper Polling (R)[upper-alpha 1] | May 26–28, 2020 | 510 (LV) | – | 44% | 40% | – | – |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic (DFL) | Tina Smith (incumbent) | 1,566,522 | 48.74% | -4.23% | |
| Republican | Jason Lewis | 1,398,145 | 43.50% | +1.15% | |
| Legal Marijuana Now | Kevin O'Connor | 190,154 | 5.91% | +2.21% | |
| Grassroots—LC | Oliver Steinberg | 57,174 | 1.78% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 2,261 | 0.07% | +0.03% | ||
| Total votes | 3,214,256 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic (DFL) hold | |||||
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By congressional district
Smith and Lewis each won 4 congressional districts.
| District | Smith | Lewis | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 41.9% | 48.8% | Jim Hagedorn |
| 2nd | 47.9% | 44.5% | Angie Craig |
| 3rd | 53.1% | 40.1% | Dean Phillips |
| 4th | 61.7% | 30.1% | Betty McCollum |
| 5th | 73.4% | 18.3% | Ilhan Omar |
| 6th | 36% | 55.7% | Tom Emmer |
| 7th | 34% | 58.9% | Collin Peterson |
| Michelle Fischbach | |||
| 8th | 40% | 52.3% | Pete Stauber |
See also
Notes
- "Someone else" with 2%
- "Other candidate or write-in" with 2%
- "Not sure/Someone else/Undecided" with 3%
- "Some other candidate" with 3%
- O'Connor (LMN) and Steinberg (GLC) with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%
- Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- O'Connor (LMN) with 3%; Steinberg (GLC) with 1%; would not vote with 0%
- "Some other candidate" with 4%
- O'Connor (LMN) and "Refused" with 2%; Steinberg (GLC) and "Other" with 1%
- "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 2%
- "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
- Includes "Refused"
- "Someone else" with 3%
- Partisan clients
- Poll sponsored by Lewis' campaign
- Giffords endorsed Tina Smith prior to the sampling period
References
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- Donald J. Trump. ".Jason Lewis (@LewisForMN) will be an incredible Senator for the State of Minnesota! He is a proven leader who will help us Lower your Taxes, Protect our Communities and Defend your Second Amendment…". Twitter.
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- "Ondich, Josh D." Our Campaigns. June 23, 2016. Retrieved October 12, 2020.
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- "2020 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
- "2020 Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved March 12, 2021.
- "2020 Senate Race Ratings". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
- "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
- "Battle for the Senate 2020". RCP. October 23, 2020.
- "2020 Senate Elections Model". Decision Desk HQ. September 2, 2020. Retrieved September 2, 2020.
- Silver, Nate (September 18, 2020). "Forecasting the race for the Senate". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved September 18, 2020.
- "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. November 2, 2020. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
- Kirsten Gillibrand (February 5, 2020). "Off the Sidelines Endorsed Candidates".
- "Endorsements | Warren Democrats". elizabethwarren.com. Archived from the original on January 7, 2021. Retrieved September 1, 2020.
- "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 11 House, Senate Candidates". nrdcactionfund.org. June 15, 2020.
- "2020 Endorsed Candidates". Rachel's Action Network.
- "2020 Election Endorsements". AFSCME Council 5. December 20, 2019.
- "U.S. Senate - Education Votes". educationvotes.nea.org.
- "SEIU 2020 Endorsements". seiumn.org. February 27, 2020. Archived from the original on September 13, 2020. Retrieved September 22, 2020.
- "Minnesota – Official UAW Endorsements". uawendorsements.org. United Automobile Workers.
- "U.S. Senate endorsement: Tina Smith best reflects Minnesota values". startribune.com. Minneapolis Star Tribune.
- "Vice President Mike Pence Endorses Jason Lewis In Minnesota's U.S. Senate Race". July 28, 2020.
- "Hagedorn, Lewis rally supporters in Rochester campaigning in-person and says they're gaining ground". KAAL. October 28, 2020. Archived from the original on October 31, 2020. Retrieved October 28, 2020.
- "Donation Status [INCOMPLETE]" – via www.facebook.com.
- Hagen, Matthew. "Lewis FOP Endorsement" (PDF). Minnesota Fraternal Order of Police. Archived from the original (PDF) on October 1, 2020. Retrieved September 30, 2020.
- Peters, Brian. "Lewis MPPOA Endorsement" (PDF). Minnesota Police and Peace Officers Association. Archived from the original (PDF) on October 1, 2020. Retrieved September 30, 2020.
- "Minnesota Small Businesses Endorse Jason Lewis for Election to Congress". NFIB. October 14, 2020. Retrieved October 14, 2020.
- Donohue, Thomas. "Chamber of Commerce Endorsement" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on November 12, 2020. Retrieved September 30, 2020.
- "Lewis for U.S. Senate". echopress.com. Alexandria Echo Press. September 30, 2020. Retrieved September 30, 2020.
- "Endorsement: Lewis for U.S. Senate". bemidjipioneer.com. Bemidji Pioneer. September 30, 2020. Retrieved September 30, 2020.
- "Endorsement: Lewis for U.S. Senate". brainerddispatch.com. Brainerd Dispatch. September 30, 2020. Retrieved September 30, 2020.
- "Endorsement: Lewis for U.S. Senate". dl-online.com. Detroit Lakes Tribune. September 30, 2020. Retrieved October 20, 2020.
- "Endorsement: Lewis for U.S. Senate". rivertowns.net. Duluth News Tribune. September 30, 2020. Retrieved September 30, 2020.
- "Endorsement: Lewis for U.S. Senate". parkrapidsenterprise.com. Park Rapids Enterprise. September 30, 2020. Retrieved September 30, 2020.
- "Endorsement: Lewis for U.S. Senate". rivertowns.net. RiverTowns and Forum Communications Company. September 30, 2020. Archived from the original on October 1, 2020. Retrieved September 30, 2020.
- "Endorsement: Lewis for U.S. Senate". postbulletin.com. PostBulletin. September 30, 2020. Retrieved September 30, 2020.
- "Endorsement: Lewis for U.S. Senate". dglobe.com. Worthington Daily Globe. September 30, 2020. Retrieved September 30, 2020.
- "Endorsement: Lewis for U.S. Senate". www.wadenapj.com. Wadena Pioneer Journal. September 30, 2020. Retrieved October 20, 2020.
- "Statewide Results for U.S. Senator". Minnesota Secretary of State. Retrieved November 25, 2020.
- "State of Minnesota Canvassing Report". Minnesota Secretary of State. November 24, 2020. Retrieved January 27, 2022.
External links
- Elections & Voting - Minnesota Secretary of State
- Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Minnesota", Voting & Elections Toolkits
- "Minnesota: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
- "League of Women Voters of Minnesota". (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- Minnesota at Ballotpedia
- Official campaign websites
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