2020 United States Senate election in Tennessee

The 2020 United States Senate election in Tennessee was held on November 3, 2020, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate. The 2020 U.S. presidential election and elections to the U.S. House of Representatives were also held, as well as the State Senate and State House elections. Incumbent Republican Senator Lamar Alexander announced that he would not run for re-election on December 17, 2018.[2] The former United States Ambassador to Japan, Bill Hagerty won the open seat by a large margin defeating his Democratic opponent Marquita Bradshaw.

For related races, see 2020 United States Senate elections.
Not to be confused with 2020 Tennessee Senate election.

2020 United States Senate election in Tennessee
November 3, 2020 (2020-11-03)
Turnout69.30% Increase[1] 33.33 pp
 
Nominee Bill Hagerty Marquita Bradshaw
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,840,926 1,040,691
Percentage 62.2% 35.2%
Hagerty:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Bradshaw:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%
     No data
U.S. senator before election

Lamar Alexander
Republican

 Elected U.S. Senator

Bill Hagerty
Republican

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In the primary, President Donald Trump endorsed Hagerty. He ended up winning the Republican nomination, defeating orthopedic surgeon Manny Sethi and 13 others in the Republican primary. In the Democratic primary, environmental activist Marquita Bradshaw from Memphis defeated Robin Kimbrough Hayes, as well as 3 other candidates. Nine independent candidates also appeared on the general election ballot.

Bill Hagerty outperformed Donald Trump by almost 4% during the general election. This was because he did better in suburban, exurban, and urban areas across Tennessee.

Republican primary

Nominee

Eliminated in the primary
  • Cliff Adkins[5]
  • Natisha Brooks[5]
  • Byron Bush, dentist[6]
  • Roy Dale Cope, small business owner and pharmacist[7][8]
  • Terry Dicus, attorney[8]
  • Tom Emerson, Jr., Tea Party candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014[9]
  • George Flinn, Jr., former Shelby County commissioner, Nixon Administration Official, physician, engineer, businessman, and Republican candidate in Tennessee's 8th congressional district in 2016 and 2018[10]
  • Jon Henry, U.S. Marine Corps veteran[10]
  • Kent Morrell, business owner[10]
  • Glen Neal, Jr., retired public servant[10]
  • John Osborne, real estate agent and business owner[10]
  • Aaron Pettigrew, truck driver[11]
  • David Schuster, U.S. Navy veteran[9]
  • Manny Sethi, orthopedic surgeon, director of the Vanderbilt Orthopedic Institute Center for Health Policy and founder and president of the non-profit Healthy Tennessee[12]

Disqualified from the primary ballot

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements
Bill Hagerty
Federal Officials
Governors
State Officials
Individuals
Organizations
Manny Sethi
Federal Officials
Governors
State Officials

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 George Flinn Mark Green Bill Hagerty Bill Haslam Manny Sethi Other Undecided
JMC Analytics and Polling July 18–19, 2020 600 (LV) ±  4.0% 5% – 36% – 32% 9% 20%
The Trafalgar Group July 6–8, 2020 1,062 (LV) ±  2.92% 4% – 42% – 39% 2% 13%
Victory Phones[upper-alpha 1] June 30 – July 1, 2020 800 (LV) ±  3.46% 6% – 33% – 31% – 30%
The Tarrance Group[upper-alpha 2] June 28–30, 2020 651 (LV) ±  4.0% 5% – 46% – 29% 2%[lower-alpha 2] 18%
Victory Phones[upper-alpha 1] June 2, 2020 –[lower-alpha 3] – – – 27% – 11% – –
July 11, 2019 Green and Haslam announce they will not run
Triton/Tennessee Star April 13–16, 2019 1,003 (LV) ± 3.1% – 30% – 39% – – ~30%

Results
Results by county:
  Hagerty
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Sethi
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
Republican primary results[50]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Bill Hagerty 331,267 50.75%
Republican Manny Sethi 257,223 39.41%
Republican George Flinn, Jr. 22,454 3.44%
Republican Jon Henry 8,104 1.24%
Republican Natisha Brooks 8,072 1.24%
Republican Byron Bush 5,420 0.83%
Republican Clifford Adkins 5,316 0.81%
Republican Terry Dicus 2,279 0.35%
Republican Tom Emerson, Jr. 2,252 0.35%
Republican David Schuster 2,045 0.31%
Republican John Osborne 1,877 0.29%
Republican Roy Dale Cope 1,791 0.27%
Republican Kent Morrell 1,769 0.27%
Republican Aaron Pettigrew 1,622 0.25%
Republican Glen Neal, Jr. 1,233 0.19%
Total votes 652,724 100.00%

Democratic primary

Nominee

Eliminated in the primary
  • Gary G. Davis, small business owner, baker, pilot, and perennial candidate[53]
  • Robin Kimbrough Hayes, attorney and Christian minister[54]
  • James Mackler, attorney, U.S. Army veteran and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2018[3][55]
  • Mark Pickrell, entrepreneur, attorney and Baptist deacon[56]

Disqualified from the primary ballot
  • Tharon Chandler, journalist, economist, and conservationist[57]

Withdrawn
  • Diana C. Onyejiaka, college professor and consultant[58]

Declined

Endorsements
James Mackler
Politicians
Organizations
Marquita Bradshaw
Organizations

Results
Results by county:
  Bradshaw
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Hayes
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  Mackler
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Davis
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
Mackler/Davis tie
  •   20–30%
Democratic primary results[61]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Marquita Bradshaw 117,962 35.51%
Democratic Robin Kimbrough Hayes 88,492 26.64%
Democratic James Mackler 78,966 23.77%
Democratic Gary G. Davis 30,758 9.26%
Democratic Mark Pickrell 16,045 4.83%
Total votes 332,223 100.00%

Independents

Declared
  • Yomi Faparusi, physician, attorney, researcher, and former Republican candidate for Tennessee's 4th congressional district in 2014 and 2016[9]
  • Jeffrey Grunau, activist[9]
  • Ronnie Henley,[9]
  • Dean Hill, US veteran, former federal employee, and activist[9]
  • Steven Hooper[9]
  • Aaron James[9]
  • Elizabeth McLeod, conservative activist[9]
  • Eric William Stansberry[9]

Withdrawn
  • Tom Kovach, attorney[74][9]
  • Kacey Morgan, freelancer and operations director (endorsed Marquita Bradshaw) (remained on ballot)[75]

General election

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[76] Safe R October 29, 2020
Inside Elections[77] Safe R October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[78] Safe R November 2, 2020
Daily Kos[79] Safe R November 30, 2020
Politico[80] Safe R November 2, 2020
RCP[81] Likely R October 23, 2020
DDHQ[82] Safe R November 3, 2020
538[83] Safe R November 2, 2020
Economist[84] Safe R November 2, 2020

Endorsements
Bill Hagerty (R)
Federal Officials
Governors
State Officials
Local Officials
  • Roane County Commissioner Randy Ellis[89]
  • Sandy Still[89]
  • Cary Vaughn[89]
Individuals
Organizations
Marquita Bradshaw (D)
Federal Officials
Notable Individuals
Organizations
Unions

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Bill
Hagerty (R)		 Marquita
Bradshaw (D)		 Other Undecided
Swayable Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine October 23 – November 1, 2020 431 (LV) ± 6.2% 61% 39% – –
Cygnal October 20–22, 2020 610 (LV) ± 3.97% 56% 36% 1%[lower-alpha 4] 7%
Hypothetical polling
with Bill Hagerty and James Mackler
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Bill
Hagerty (R)		 James
Mackler (D)		 Undecided
Mason-Dixon January 28–30, 2020 625 (RV) ± 4% 55% 33% 12%
with Manny Sethi and James Mackler
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Manny
Sethi (R)		 James
Mackler (D)		 Undecided
Mason-Dixon January 28–30, 2020 625 (RV) ± 4% 46% 35% 19%
with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Generic
Republican		 Generic
Democrat		 Undecided
Cygnal October 20–22, 2020 610 (LV) ± 3.97% 58% 38% – 4%
East Tennessee State University Archived May 19, 2020, at the Wayback Machine April 22 – May 1, 2020 536 (LV) – 43% 26% 31%[lower-alpha 5]

Results
2020 United States Senate election in Tennessee[122]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Bill Hagerty 1,840,926 62.20% +0.33%
Democratic Marquita Bradshaw 1,040,691 35.16% +3.29%
Independent Elizabeth McLeod 16,652 0.56% N/A
Independent Yomi Faparusi 10,727 0.36% N/A
Independent Stephen Hooper 9,609 0.32% N/A
Independent Kacey Morgan (withdrawn) 9,598 0.32% N/A
Independent Ronnie Henley 8,478 0.30% N/A
Independent Aaron James 7,203 0.29% N/A
Independent Eric William Stansberry 6,781 0.23% N/A
Independent Dean Hill 4,872 0.16% N/A
Independent Jeffrey Grunau 4,160 0.14% N/A
Write-in 64 0.00% ±0.00%
Total votes 2,959,761 100.0%
Republican hold

By county
County[123]Bill Hagerty
Republican		Marquita Bradshaw
Democratic		Other votesTotal
votes
 % #  % #  % #
Anderson66.54%22,98831.32%10,8202.14%74034,548
Bedford76.68%13,92020.98%3,8082.34%42518,153
Benton78.22%5,46219.16%1,3382.62%1836,983
Bledsoe81.49%4,46016.41%8982.10%1155,473
Blount73.27%47,39124.66%15,9502.07%1,33864,679
Bradley77.62%34,26219.74%8,7162.64%1,16544,143
Campbell82.53%11,61015.45%2,1732.02%28414,067
Cannon79.61%4,90417.94%1,1052.45%1516,160
Carroll77.78%8,89919.98%2,2862.24%25611,441
Carter80.02%18,59317.76%4,1272.22%51423,234
Cheatham72.19%14,09425.40%4,9592.41%47019,523
Chester80.22%5,95117.59%1,3052.19%1627,418
Claiborne82.26%10,11615.95%1,9621.79%22012,298
Clay78.29%2,52519.10%6162.61%843,225
Cocke81.13%11,28416.01%2,2272.86%39713,908
Coffee74.38%17,60722.03%5,2153.59%84923,671
Crockett77.42%4,45520.68%1,1901.90%1095,754
Cumberland78.97%24,41219.11%5,9081.92%59330,913
Davidson35.20%106,66461.04%184,9723.76%11,402303,038
Decatur80.87%4,07516.21%8172.92%1475,039
DeKalb78.01%6,16219.29%1,5242.70%2137,899
Dickson72.88%17,21423.52%5,5563.60%85123,621
Dyer78.34%11,23719.06%2,7342.60%37214,343
Fayette70.67%15,41426.67%5,8182.66%57921,811
Fentress85.37%7,06612.78%1,0561.85%1558,277
Franklin74.02%13,49024.06%4,3841.92%35018,224
Gibson73.53%15,58322.97%4,8673.50%74221,192
Giles74.70%9,31322.68%2,8282.62%32612,467
Grainger84.90%8,13113.27%1,2711.83%1759,577
Greene79.82%21,90417.51%4,8042.67%73427,442
Grundy81.06%4,37316.46%8882.48%1345,395
Hamblen77.30%18,18320.46%4,8132.24%52823,524
Hamilton56.29%95,10541.79%70,6081.92%3,252168,965
Hancock86.39%2,15912.04%3011.57%392,499
Hardeman58.68%5,37737.67%3,4523.65%3349,163
Hardin82.95%9,22114.38%1,5992.67%29611,116
Hawkins82.06%19,12315.66%3,6492.28%53323,305
Haywood46.14%3,29751.74%3,6972.12%1527,146
Henderson82.73%9,58515.48%1,7931.79%20811,586
Henry75.40%10,59521.16%2,9733.44%48414,052
Hickman76.90%7,28420.31%1,9242.79%2649,472
Houston72.85%2,58622.82%8104.33%1543,550
Humphreys73.39%5,75222.77%1,7853.84%3017,838
Jackson77.47%3,83719.95%9882.58%1284,953
Jefferson79.80%18,02417.87%4,0352.33%52722,586
Johnson82.41%6,05815.17%1,1152.42%1787,351
Knox59.27%128,66239.09%84,8471.64%3,570217,079
Lake70.52%1,36125.54%4933.94%761,930
Lauderdale65.44%5,55331.50%2,6733.06%2608,486
Lawrence81.69%14,27015.85%2,7682.46%43117,469
Lewis79.27%4,23418.52%9892.21%1185,341
Lincoln79.55%12,01917.50%2,6442.95%44615,109
Loudon76.40%21,89021.15%6,0612.45%70228,653
Macon85.15%7,52212.50%1,1042.35%2088,834
Madison57.70%24,06540.24%16,7812.06%86041,706
Marion74.54%9,51723.15%2,9562.31%29512,768
Marshall75.17%10,65022.26%3,1542.57%36414,168
Maury68.49%31,51629.46%13,5572.05%94546,018
McMinn80.28%17,77717.65%3,9082.07%45822,143
McNairy80.77%8,83916.12%1,7643.11%34110,944
Meigs80.62%4,19816.94%8822.44%1275,207
Monroe80.86%16,33117.05%3,4442.09%42220,197
Montgomery56.54%41,34239.21%28,6744.25%3,10573,121
Moore82.04%2,82715.18%5232.78%963,446
Morgan84.51%6,71513.67%1,0861.82%1457,946
Obion79.58%10,23617.47%2,2472.95%38012,863
Overton79.35%7,35118.39%1,7042.26%2099,264
Perry81.68%2,61716.14%5172.18%703,204
Pickett81.15%2,26417.03%4751.82%512,790
Polk81.25%6,62017.19%1,4011.56%1278,148
Putnam71.77%23,03125.76%8,2682.47%79232,091
Rhea81.62%10,62116.14%2,1002.24%29113,012
Roane75.21%19,03821.56%5,4583.23%81725,313
Robertson73.94%23,87723.32%7,5302.74%88632,293
Rutherford58.11%80,61038.77%53,7823.12%4,323138,715
Scott87.49%7,30710.09%8432.42%2028,352
Sequatchie80.95%5,59816.67%1,1532.38%1646,915
Sevier78.52%33,53118.58%7,9342.90%1,23842,703
Shelby36.12%135,04361.05%228,2802.83%10,600373,923
Smith78.77%6,61017.79%1,4933.44%2888,391
Stewart79.07%4,69718.10%1,0752.83%1685,940
Sullivan76.46%55,50621.64%15,7101.90%1,37572,591
Sumner70.70%63,03126.78%23,8782.52%2,24289,151
Tipton75.07%19,55422.21%5,7842.72%70926,047
Trousdale75.28%2,74122.25%8102.47%903,641
Unicoi79.32%6,26718.34%1,4492.34%1857,901
Union83.67%6,36514.29%1,0872.04%1557,606
Van Buren79.93%2,15517.36%4682.71%732,696
Warren73.68%10,99822.85%3,4103.47%51814,926
Washington68.20%39,51629.37%17,0212.43%1,40857,945
Wayne86.75%5,35110.91%6732.34%1446,168
Weakley75.90%10,13120.12%2,6863.98%53113,348
White80.96%9,47517.02%1,9922.02%23711,704
Williamson66.21%91,15531.55%43,4322.24%3,080137,667
Wilson69.44%50,59727.53%20,0593.03%2,20972,865
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

See also

Notes
  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. "One of the other candidates" with 2%
  3. Not yet released
  4. "Third-party candidate" with 1%
  5. "Does not matter" with 26%; unsure with 5%
Partisan clients
  1. Poll conducted for the Sethi campaign.
  2. Poll conducted for the Hagerty campaign.

References
  1. "Tennessee Voter Turnout in 2020". Tennessee Secretary of State. November 3, 2020. Retrieved February 28, 2023.
  2. Burgess Everett [@burgessev] (December 17, 2018). "HOLY COW Lamar Alexander: "I will not be a candidate for re-election to the United States Senate in 2020"" (Tweet). Retrieved December 17, 2018 – via Twitter.
  3. Allison, Natalie (December 17, 2018). "Who will succeed Lamar Alexander as Tennessee's next U.S. Senator?". The Tennessean. Archived from the original on October 14, 2021. Retrieved December 17, 2018.
  4. Sher, Andy (July 12, 2019). "Trump announces, endorses Bill Hagerty bid for Tennessee U.S. Senate seat". Chattanooga Times Free Press. Archived from the original on July 12, 2019. Retrieved July 12, 2019.
  5. "Early voting begins today". Oak Ridger. July 17, 2020. Archived from the original on August 5, 2020. Retrieved August 1, 2020.
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  7. "CopeTN2020 – TN Candidate for US Senate 2020". Archived from the original on March 27, 2020. Retrieved March 27, 2020.
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  11. "Aaron Pettigrew". Ballotpedia. Archived from the original on June 9, 2019. Retrieved January 5, 2020.
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