2020 United States Senate election in Kansas

The 2020 United States Senate election in Kansas was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Kansas, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

See also: 2020 United States Senate elections

2020 United States Senate election in Kansas
November 3, 2020
 
Nominee Roger Marshall Barbara Bollier
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 727,962 571,530
Percentage 53.22% 41.79%
Marshall:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Bollier:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%
     No data
U.S. senator before election

Pat Roberts
Republican

 Elected U.S. Senator

Roger Marshall
Republican

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On January 4, 2019, incumbent Republican Senator Pat Roberts announced he would not run for a fifth term.[1] Candidates had until June 1, 2020 to file to run for the open seat or to drop out if they already filed.[2] The U.S. Senate primaries were held on August 4, 2020.[3][4]

Republican U.S. Representative Roger Marshall was considered a narrow favorite based on polling, but he won by around 11 points, a larger margin than most experts predicted. However, this was the first Senate election since 1978 where a Democrat won Shawnee County, the first Senate election since 1974 where a Democrat won Riley County, and the first Senate election ever in Kansas's history where a Democrat won Johnson County; all three counties were also flipped by Democrat Joe Biden in the concurrent presidential election.

Republican primary

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Primary debate

In a live-streamed debate on May 22, 2020, in a ballroom devoid of spectators due to the COVID-19 pandemic, all five major candidates praised president Donald Trump. Kobach took on his opponents who all agreed that he could not win the general election against presumptive Democratic nominee, Bollier.[37] Marshall said, "We cannot afford to send a failed candidate back this fall who will lose to Barbara Bollier and hand the Senate majority over to Chuck Schumer." "Instead, we need to send a tried and trusted friend of President Trump." Referring to Marshall, Kobach replied, "Do you want a go-along-to-get-along kind of senator, a gutless wonder who never takes a stand, or, do you want someone who poses a threat?" Hamilton said voters didn't have to choose between Kobach, who couldn't win, and a moderate Marshall,[37] in whose behest the state party leaders had urged Senator Wagle and Lindstrom, to drop out of the race.[37] Objecting to the party pressure, Lindstrom characterized his opponents as "shortsighted, self-serving ... career politicians who are divisive, controversial," and, "have a record of losing elections."[37] Wagle touted her own candidacy, saying, "It's very, very important that we send a leader to the U.S. Senate who is articulate, who is persuasive, who other people respect. ... I'm the one who's already debated Barbara Bollier. ... I win on the Senate floor. I've beat (sic) her numerous times ... the conservative voice that can beat that liberal voice in the U.S. Senate," she said.[37] In response to a claim that he would not prioritize the issue of agriculture, Marshall said, "Fake news and another lie by Kris Kobach."[37]

Endorsements
Kris Kobach
Organizations
Individuals
Roger Marshall
Federal officials
Organizations

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Bob
Hamilton		 Kris
Kobach		 Dave
Lindstrom		 Roger
Marshall		 Susan
Wagle		 Other Undecided
Civiqs/Daily Kos May 30 – June 1, 2020 419 (LV) – 15% 35% 4% 26% – 4%[lower-alpha 2] 16%
May 28, 2020 Wagle withdraws from the race
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[upper-alpha 1] May 10–12, 2020 600 (V) ±  4% 6% 26% 4% 33% 7% – 24%
March 30, 2020 Hamilton announces his candidacy
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[upper-alpha 2] February 12–16, 2020 300 (LV) ± 5.6% 2% 40% 5% 23% 8% – 21%
co/efficient (R) January 19–20, 2020 1,246 LV ± 3.2% – 29% – 29% 6% 9%[lower-alpha 3] 28%
The Tarrance Group (R)[upper-alpha 3] October 21–23, 2019 607 (LV) ± 4.1% – 43% 3% 24% 8% 5%[lower-alpha 4] 16%
Hypothetical polling
with only Kris Kobach and Roger Marshall
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Kris Kobach Roger Marshall
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[upper-alpha 1] May 10–12, 2020 600 (V) ± 4% 34% 48%
with only Bob Hamilton, Kris Kobach and Roger Marshall
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Bob Hamilton Kris Kobach Roger Marshall
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[upper-alpha 1] May 10–12, 2020 600 (V) ± 4% 10% 29% 41%
with Mike Pompeo and Susan Wagle
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Kris Kobach Roger Marshall Mike Pompeo Other Undecided
NRSC[upper-alpha 3] October 21–23, 2019 607 (LV) ± 4.1% 17% 11% 54% 7%[lower-alpha 5] 10%
with only Kris Kobach and Mike Pompeo
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Kris Kobach Mike Pompeo
NRSC[upper-alpha 3] October 21–23, 2019 607 (LV) ± 4.1% 24% 68%

Results
Primary results by county
  Marshall
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Kobach
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Hamilton
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
Republican primary results[56]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Roger Marshall 167,800 40.28%
Republican Kris Kobach 108,726 26.10%
Republican Bob Hamilton 77,952 18.71%
Republican Dave Lindstrom 27,451 6.59%
Republican Steve Roberts 8,141 1.95%
Republican Brian Matlock 7,083 1.70%
Republican Lance Berland 6,404 1.54%
Republican John Miller 4,431 1.06%
Republican Derek Ellis 3,970 0.95%
Republican Gabriel Robles 3,744 0.90%
Republican John Berman 861 0.21%
Total votes 416,563 100.00%

Democratic primary

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements
Barbara Bollier
U.S. Senators
Federal officials
State Politicians
Former U.S. Executive Branch Officials
State legislators
Organizations

Results
Primary results by county
  Bollier
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
  Tillman
  •   50–60%
Democratic primary results[56]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Barbara Bollier 168,759 85.34%
Democratic Robert Tillman 28,997 14.66%
Total votes 197,756 100.00%

Other candidates

Nominee
  • Jason Buckley, U.S. Navy veteran[84]

Withdrawn

General election

Endorsements
Roger Marshall (R)
Federal officials
Organizations
Barbara Bollier (D)
Federal officials
State and local officials
Former U.S. executive branch officials
Organizations
Unions
Newspapers and Publications

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[102] Lean R October 29, 2020
Inside Elections[103] Tilt R October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[104] Lean R November 2, 2020
Daily Kos[105] Lean R October 30, 2020
Politico[106] Lean R November 2, 2020
RCP[107] Lean R October 23, 2020
DDHQ[108] Lean R November 3, 2020
538[109] Likely R November 2, 2020
Economist[110] Lean R November 2, 2020

Polling
Graphical summary
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Roger
Marshall (R)		 Barbara
Bollier (D)		 Jason
Buckley (L)		 Other Undecided
Data For Progress October 27 – November 1, 2020 1,121 (LV) ± 2.9% 51% 45% 4% 1%[lower-alpha 6] –
VCreek/AMG October 25–27, 2020 1,149 (LV) ± 3.8% 47% 43% 2% – 8%
GBAO Strategies (D) Archived November 2, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[lower-alpha 7][upper-alpha 4] October 25–27, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 45%[lower-alpha 8] 46% 4% 4%[lower-alpha 9] –
47%[lower-alpha 10] 47% – – –
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 5] October 19–20, 2020 897 (V) ± 3.3% 43% 43% 5% – 9%
Siena College/NYT Upshot October 18–20, 2020 755 (LV) ± 4% 46% 42% 4% 2%[lower-alpha 11] 6%[lower-alpha 12]
co/efficient (R)[upper-alpha 6] October 18–20, 2020 2,453 (LV) ± 3.7% 51% 39% 2% – 8%
VCreek/AMG (R) September 29–30, 2020 3,104 (LV) ± 1.75% 42% 45% 2% – 11%
Civiqs/Daily Kos September 26–29, 2020 677 (LV) ± 4.5% 50% 43% – 2%[lower-alpha 13] 5%
GBAO Strategies (D)[upper-alpha 4] September 24–27, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 43% 45% 7% – –
Data For Progress (D) September 14–19, 2020 883 (LV) ± 3.3% 40%[lower-alpha 8] 40% 5% – 15%
42%[lower-alpha 10] 42% – – 15%
co/efficient (R)[upper-alpha 6] September 15–16, 2020 794 (LV) ± 3.5% 43% 39% 2% – 16%
SurveyUSA August 8–9, 2020 1,202 (LV) ± 3.3% 46% 44% – – 10%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 7] August 5–6, 2020 864 (V) ± 3.3% 43% 42% – – 15%
Civiqs/Daily Kos May 30 – June 1, 2020 699 (RV) ± 4.2% 42% 41% – 9%[lower-alpha 3] 8%
NMB Research (R)[upper-alpha 1] May 17–19, 2020 506 (LV) ± 4.5% 46% 35% – – 18%
Public Policy Polling March 10–11, 2020 1,567 (V) ± 2.5% 47% 37% – – –
Hypothetical polling
Bob Hamilton vs. Barbara Bollier
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Bob
Hamilton (R)		 Barbara
Bollier (D)		 Other Undecided
Civiqs/Daily Kos May 30 – June 1, 2020 699 (RV) ± 4.2% 40% 41% 11%[lower-alpha 14] 8%
Kris Kobach vs. Barbara Bollier
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Kris
Kobach (R)		 Barbara
Bollier (D)		 Other Undecided
Civiqs/Daily Kos May 30 – June 1, 2020 699 (RV) ± 4.2% 41% 42% 11%[lower-alpha 14] 7%
NMB Research/NRSC (R)[upper-alpha 3] May 17–19, 2020 506 (LV) ± 4.5% 44% 43% – 12%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 8] April 13–14, 2020 1,271 (RV) ± 2.7% 42% 44% – 13%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[upper-alpha 2] February 12–13, 2020 300 (LV) ± 5.6% 47% 38% – 15%
DFM Research Archived February 10, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[upper-alpha 9] January 30 – February 6, 2020 600 (A) ± 4.0% 43% 43% 4% 10%
Kris Kobach vs. Barry Grissom
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Kris
Kobach (R)		 Barry
Grissom (D)		 Undecided
Tarrance Group/NRSC (R)[upper-alpha 3] June 9–11, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4% 42%[lower-alpha 15] 52% –
Generic Republican vs. Generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Generic
Republican (R)		 Generic
Democrat (D)		 Undecided
co/efficient/Keep Kansas Great PAC[upper-alpha 10] September 15–16, 2020 794 (LV) ± 3.5% 53% 39% –
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 8] April 13–14, 2020 1,271 (RV) ± 2.7% 50% 40% 11%
DFM Research/SMART Transportation Division Archived February 10, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[upper-alpha 9] January 30 – February 6, 2020 600 (A) ± 4.0% 39% 31% 30%
Tarrance Group/NRSC (R)[upper-alpha 3] June 9–11, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 36% –

Results

On the night of the election, Roger Marshall was announced as the winner of the Senate race.[111]

United States Senate election in Kansas, 2020[112]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Roger Marshall 727,962 53.22% +0.07%
Democratic Barbara Bollier 571,530 41.79% N/A
Libertarian Jason Buckley 68,263 4.99% +0.67%
Total votes 1,367,755 100.0%
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Independent to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Notes
  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. "someone else" with 4%
  3. "Someone else" with 9%
  4. Hartman with 5%
  5. Wagle with 4%; Hartman with 2%; Lindstrom with 1%
  6. "Other candidate/write-in" with 1%
  7. Archived November 2, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  8. Standard VI response
  9. Includes Undecided
  10. If Bollier and Marshall were the only candidates
  11. "Someone else" and would not vote with 1%
  12. Includes "Refused"
  13. "Someone else" with 2%
  14. "Someone else" with 11%
  15. Figures for other Republicans tested against Grissom in this poll have not been released, but all others led him by at least 8%
Partisan clients
  1. Poll conducted for the Marshall campaign.
  2. This poll was sponsored by Kris Kobach's campaign
  3. This poll was conducted by the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
  4. Poll sponsored by Bollier's campaign.
  5. Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organization.
  6. Poll sponsored by Keep Kansas Great PAC, which has endorsed Marshall prior to this poll's sampling period.
  7. Poll for EMILY's List, a Democratic PAC which seeks to elect pro-choice Democratic women to office
  8. Poll sponsored by 314 Action
  9. The SMART Transportation Division is an AFL-CIO affiliated PAC promoting employee assistance programs for retired railroad, bus, and mass transit workers
  10. Keep Kansas Great PAC endorsed Marshall prior to this poll's sampling period

See also

References
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