2020 United States Senate election in Montana

The 2020 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Montana. It was held concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. The primaries for both the Democratic and Republican nominations took place on June 2, 2020. Incumbent Sen. Steve Daines won the Republican primary, while Montana Gov. Steve Bullock won the Democratic primary.[1]

See also: 2020 United States Senate elections
Not to be confused with 2020 Montana Senate election.

2020 United States Senate election in Montana
November 3, 2020
 
Nominee Steve Daines Steve Bullock
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 333,174 272,463
Percentage 55.0% 45.0%
Daines:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Bullock:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
     No data
U.S. senator before election

Steve Daines
Republican

 Elected U.S. Senator

Steve Daines
Republican

Elections in Montana
Federal government
Presidential elections
Presidential primaries
Democratic
2000
2004
2008
2016
2020
Republican
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
U.S. Senate elections
U.S. House of Representatives elections
State government
General elections
Gubernatorial elections
Secretary of State elections
Attorney General elections
Senate elections
House of Representatives elections
Ballot measures
1894
Capital referendum
2004
Initiative 96
2012
Referendum 121
2016
Initiative 182
2020
Initiative 190

Originally, this seat was projected to be a safe Republican hold.[2] However, Gov. Bullock entered the race on the last day to file, shifting the dynamics of the contest dramatically; many political pundits then considered it a competitive race and a potential pickup for Democrats.[3] One poll showed Bullock leading by seven points.[4] Democrats outspent Republicans, $82 million to $63 million, on this race; it was one of the most expensive Senate races in the 2020 cycle.[5] On Election Day, Daines prevailed by a relatively comfortable 10-point margin.[6]

This election marked the first time since 2000 where Montana voted for a Republican governor, president, and senator all on the same ballot. As the Green Party was removed from the ballot and both Libertarian nominees withdrew, this was the first time since 1988 that there were no third-party candidates running for either United States House of Representatives or United States Senate in Montana.[7]

Republican primary

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Endorsements
Steve Daines
Businessmen

Results
Results by county
  Daines
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
Republican primary results[11]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Steve Daines (incumbent) 192,942 88.02%
Republican John Driscoll 13,944 6.36%
Republican Daniel Larson 12,319 5.62%
Total votes 219,205 100.00%

Democratic primary

Following Steve Bullock's entry shortly before the March 9 filing deadline, several Democrats dropped from the race.[1]

Nominee

Eliminated in primary
  • John Mues, nuclear engineer and U.S. Navy veteran[14]

Withdrawn
  • Jack Ballard, former professor at Montana State University Billings (endorsed Bullock)[15]
  • Wilmot Collins, mayor of Helena (endorsed Bullock)[16]
  • Mike Knoles, mathematician, physicist, and data analyst (endorsed Bullock)[17] (remained on ballot)
  • Cora Neumann, public health expert and founder of the Global First Ladies Alliance[18] (endorsed Bullock)[19]
  • Josh Seckinger, fishing guide (endorsed Bullock)[20]

Declined

Endorsements
Steve Bullock
Federal officials

Results
Results by county
  Bullock
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
Democratic primary results[11]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Steve Bullock 144,949 95.45%
Democratic John Mues 3,740 2.46%
Democratic Mike Knoles (withdrawn) 3,165 2.09%
Total votes 151,854 100.00%

Other candidates

Libertarian Party

After Susan Geise officially withdrew, the Montana Libertarian Party could name a replacement candidate for the general election.[26][27] However, during a meeting to select a replacement candidate, a majority of party officials selected not to have a replacement candidate, with "none of the above" winning the most votes.[28]

Withdrawn

Green Party
Main article: Green Party of Montana § 2020 election

Disqualified
  • Wendie Fredrickson, former audit reviewer for Montana State Department of Public Health and Human Services[9][32][33]

Eliminated in primary
  • Dennis Daneke, retired college professor[34][32]

Results
Results by county
  Fredrickson
  Daneke
  Tie
  No vote
Green primary results[11]
Party Candidate Votes %
Green Wendie Fredrickson 504 66.40%
Green Dennis Daneke 255 33.60%
Total votes 758 100.00%

General election

Debate
Host Date & Time Link(s) Participants
Steve Daines (R) Steve Bullock (D)
Montana Broadcasters Association August 8, 2020
9:30pm MDT		 [35] Present Present
Montana Television Network October 10, 2020
5:47pm MDT		 [36] Present Present

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[37] Tossup October 29, 2020
Inside Elections[38] Tossup October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[39] Lean R November 2, 2020
Daily Kos[40] Lean R October 30, 2020
Politico[41] Tossup November 2, 2020
RCP[42] Tossup October 23, 2020
DDHQ[43] Lean R November 3, 2020
538[44] Lean R November 2, 2020
Economist[45] Lean R November 2, 2020

Endorsements
Steve Daines (R)
U.S. Executive Branch Officials
U.S. Senators
Individuals
Organizations
Steve Bullock (D)
Federal officials
Newspapers
Organizations
Unions

Polling
Graphical summary

Aggregate Polls

Steve Bullock vs. Steve Daines
Source of poll aggregation Dates administered Dates updated Steve Bullock Steve Daines Other/Undecided[lower-alpha 1] Margin
Real Clear Politics October 5–24, 2020 October 30, 2020 46.4% 48.8% 4.8% Daines + 2.4
270 to Win October 19, 2020 October 28, 2020 47.2% 48.0% 4.8% Daines + 0.8
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Steve
Daines (R)		 Steve
Bullock (D)		 Other /
Undecided
Change Research October 29 – November 2, 2020 920 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 46% 3%[lower-alpha 3]
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 1] October 26–27, 2020 886 (LV) ± 3.3% 47% 48% 6%[lower-alpha 4]
The Progress Campaign (D) October 25, 2020 – (V)[lower-alpha 5] – 48% 48% –
Montana State University Billings October 19–24, 2020 546 (LV) ± 4.2% 47% 48% 5%[lower-alpha 6]
Siena College/NYT Upshot October 18–20, 2020 758 (LV) ± 4.4% 49% 46% 6%[lower-alpha 7]
Strategies 360 October 15–20, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 48% 47% 5%[lower-alpha 6]
RMG Research Archived October 20, 2020, at the Wayback Machine October 15–18, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 49%[lower-alpha 8] 47% 5%[lower-alpha 9]
47%[lower-alpha 10] 48% 5%[lower-alpha 9]
50%[lower-alpha 11] 45% 5%[lower-alpha 9]
Public Policy Polling October 9–10, 2020 798 (V) ± 3.5% 48% 48% 4%[lower-alpha 12]
Emerson College October 4–7, 2020 500 (LV) ± 3.7% 52% 43% 6%[lower-alpha 13]
Data For Progress (D) September 30 – October 5, 2020 737 (LV) ± 3.6% 47% 48% 4%[lower-alpha 14]
Montana State University Bozeman Archived October 15, 2020, at the Wayback Machine September 14 – October 2, 2020 1,609 (LV) ± 3.9% 47% 49% 4%[lower-alpha 15]
Siena College/NYT Upshot September 14–16, 2020 625 (LV) ± 4.8% 45% 44% 11%[lower-alpha 16]
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates[upper-alpha 2] August 30 – September 5, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 47% 3%[lower-alpha 17]
Emerson College July 31 – August 2, 2020 584 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 44% 6%[lower-alpha 13]
Spry Strategies (R)[upper-alpha 3] July 11–16, 2020 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 47% 44% 9%[lower-alpha 18]
Civiqs/Daily Kos July 11–13, 2020 873 (RV) ± 4.2% 49% 47% 3%[lower-alpha 19]
Public Policy Polling July 9–10, 2020 1,224 (V) ± 2.8% 44% 46% 10%[lower-alpha 20]
University of Montana June 17–26, 2020 517 (RV) ± 4.3% 43% 47% 10%[lower-alpha 21]
Montana State University Bozeman April 10–27, 2020 459 (LV) ± 4.6% 39% 46% 15%[lower-alpha 22]
The Progress Campaign (D) April 14–21, 2020 712 (LV) ± 4.6% 46% 49% 5%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 4] March 12–13, 2020 903 (V) ± 3.3% 47% 47% 6%
Hypothetical polling

University of Montana polls did not account for certain presumed withdrawals of major party candidates after their primaries in the following polls.

Steve Daines vs Steve Bullock, Wilmot Collins, Mike Knoles, Cora Neumann, and John Mues
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Democratic
candidates		 Steve
Daines (R)
University of Montana February 12–22, 2020 498 (LV) ± 4.4% 53%[lower-alpha 23] 47%
Steve Daines vs Jack Ballard, Wilmot Collins, and John Mues
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Democratic
candidates		 Steve
Daines (R)
University of Montana September 26 – October 3, 2019 303 (RV) ± 5.6% 36%[lower-alpha 24] 64%

Results
United States Senate election in Montana, 2020[80]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Steve Daines (incumbent) 333,174 55.01% -2.78%
Democratic Steve Bullock 272,463 44.99% +4.92%
Total votes 605,637 100.00%
Republican hold
By county
County[80] Steve Daines
Republican		 Steve Bullock
Democratic		 Margin Total
votes
# % # % # %
Beaverhead 3,775 66.64 1,890 33.36 1,885 33.27 5,665
Big Horn 2,106 43.94 2,687 56.06 -581 -12.12 4,793
Blaine 1,343 42.84 1,792 57.16 -449 -14.32 3,135
Broadwater 3,107 75.60 1,003 24.40 2,104 51.19 4,110
Carbon 4,404 62.96 2,591 37.04 1,813 25.92 6,995
Carter 767 86.08 94 10.55 673 75.53 891
Cascade 22,312 55.73 17,727 44.27 4,585 11.45 40,039
Chouteau 1,813 60.59 1,179 39.40 634 21.19 2,992
Custer 3,995 68.17 1,865 31.83 2,130 36.35 5,860
Daniels 787 76.41 243 23.59 544 52.82 1,030
Dawson 3,634 75.35 1,189 24.65 2,445 50.70 4,823
Deer Lodge 1,921 39.35 2,961 60.65 -1,040 -21.30 4,882
Fallon 1,341 85.09 235 14.91 1,106 70.18 1,576
Fergus 4,746 72.63 1,788 27.36 2,958 45.27 6,534
Flathead 37,861 63.06 22,180 36.94 15,681 26.12 60,041
Gallatin 31,829 44.65 39,450 55.35 -7,621 -10.69 71,279
Garfield 736 90.98 73 9.02 663 81.95 809
Glacier 1,687 29.50 4,032 70.50 -2,345 -41.00 5,719
Golden Valley 405 80.36 99 19.64 306 60.71 504
Granite 1,360 64.73 741 35.27 619 29.46 2,101
Hill 3,746 51.86 3,477 48.14 269 3.72 7,223
Jefferson 5,206 63.70 2,967 36.30 2,239 27.40 8,173
Judith Basin 1,026 76.11 322 23.89 704 52.22 1,348
Lake 8,964 53.91 7,664 46.09 1,300 7.82 16,628
Lewis and Clark 20,554 48.35 21,955 51.65 -1,401 -3.30 42,509
Liberty 789 72.52 299 27.48 490 45.04 1,088
Lincoln 8,490 72.45 3,228 27.55 5,262 44.90 11,718
Madison 4,103 67.06 2,015 32.93 2,088 34.13 6,118
McCone 946 84.24 177 15.76 769 68.48 1,123
Meagher 812 72.63 306 27.37 506 45.26 1,118
Mineral 1,735 68.01 816 31.99 919 36.02 2,551
Missoula 25,529 35.56 46,268 64.44 -20,739 -28.88 71,797
Musselshell 2,341 81.31 538 18.69 1,803 62.63 2,879
Park 5,841 50.32 5,766 49.68 75 0.65 11,607
Petroleum 300 85.47 51 14.53 249 70.94 351
Phillips 1,895 79.69 483 20.31 1,412 59.38 2,378
Pondera 1,933 64.33 1,072 35.67 861 28.65 3,005
Powder River 957 84.17 180 15.83 777 68.34 1,137
Powell 2,240 70.53 936 29.47 1,304 41.06 3,176
Prairie 586 78.45 161 21.55 425 56.89 747
Ravalli 18,706 65.47 9,868 34.53 8,838 30.93 28,574
Richland 4,669 80.63 1,122 19.37 3,547 61.25 5,791
Roosevelt 1,891 46.89 2,142 53.11 -251 -6.22 4,033
Rosebud 2,436 64.55 1,338 35.45 1,098 29.09 3,774
Sanders 5,395 71.12 2,191 28.88 3,204 42.24 7,586
Sheridan 1,356 67.00 668 33.00 688 33.99 2,024
Silver Bow 6,641 35.28 12,183 64.72 -5,542 -29.44 18,824
Stillwater 4,370 76.08 1,374 23.92 2,996 52.16 5,744
Sweet Grass 1,834 74.58 625 25.42 1,209 49.17 2,459
Teton 2,541 68.56 1,165 31.44 1,376 37.13 3,706
Toole 1,528 71.97 595 28.03 933 43.95 2,123
Treasure 376 81.03 88 18.97 288 62.07 464
Valley 2,953 69.34 1,306 30.66 1,647 38.67 4,259
Wheatland 789 74.50 270 25.50 519 49.01 1,059
Wibaux 491 82.38 105 17.62 386 64.76 596
Yellowstone 49,276 58.59 34,833 41.41 14,443 17.17 84,109
Totals 333,174 55.01 272,463 44.99 60,711 10.02 605,637
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Notes
  1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. Did not vote, "Don't recall", and Undecided with 1%; Would not vote with 0%
  4. Undecided with 6%
  5. Not yet released
  6. Undecided with 5%
  7. "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 5%
  8. Standard VI response
  9. "Some other candidate" with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  10. Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  11. Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  12. Undecided with 4%
  13. "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 5%
  14. Geise (G) with 0%; Undecided with 4%
  15. "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 3%
  16. Fredrickson (G) with 4%; would not vote with 1%; "someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
  17. Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 2%
  18. "Another candidate" with 5%; Undecided with 4%
  19. Undecided with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
  20. Undecided with 10%
  21. Undecided with 9.7%
  22. Undecided with 7%; "someone else" with 6%; would not vote with 1%
  23. Steve Bullock with 38%; Wilmot Collins with 4%; Cora Neumann with 7%; Mike Knoles and John Mues with 2%
  24. Jack Ballard with 18%; Wilmot Collins and John Mues with 9%
Partisan clients
  1. Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organization.
  2. Poll sponsored by AARP.
  3. This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501 that supports the Republican Party.
  4. Poll sponsored by End Citizens United, an organization which has exclusively supported Democratic candidates.

References
  1. Drake, Phil. "Daines, Bullock take party primaries in Montana US Senate race". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved November 29, 2020.
  2. "Here's who we think will win the 2020 elections in Montana". Politico. November 19, 2019. Retrieved April 12, 2020.
  3. Nilsen, Ella; Zhou, Li (March 9, 2020). "Gov. Steve Bullock just made the Montana Senate race competitive for Democrats". Vox. Retrieved April 12, 2020.
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  9. Michels, Holly (March 9, 2020). "Filing deadline for Montana ballot sees last-minute surprises". Helena Independent Record.
  10. Trump, Donald Jr. (November 25, 2019). "Montana's A-Team: Daines, Rosendale, Gianforte". Missoulian. Retrieved December 22, 2019.
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  12. Arkin, James (March 9, 2020). "Bullock enters Montana Senate race". Politico.
  13. Pramuk, Jacob (March 9, 2020). "Montana Gov. Steve Bullock launches Senate bid, a boost in Democrats' push for majority". CNBC.
  14. Michels, Holly (July 11, 2019). "Democrat John Mues joins U.S. Senate race". Missoulian.
  15. "Ballard drops from U.S. Senate Race". Great Falls Tribune. September 13, 2019. Retrieved September 14, 2019.
  16. Collins, Wilmot [@CollinsWilmot] (March 9, 2020). "Thank you, Montana. It's been my honor to run for U.S. Senate. Today I'm suspending my campaign and endorsing Governor Steve Bullock" (Tweet). Retrieved March 9, 2020 – via Twitter.
  17. Mike Knoles [@KnolesMichael] (March 9, 2020). "With @GovernorBullock joining the Montana Senate race, I'll be dropping This race is too important to let my ego dictate decisions. @SteveDaines must go, and I will do everything I can to make sure we #FlipTheSenate I'll find another vector. Right now we've got a seat to flip!" (Tweet). Archived from the original on March 9, 2020 – via Twitter.
  18. Neumann, Cora [@CoraforMT] (March 9, 2020). "Today, I am announcing that I am withdrawing from the race for U.S. Senate and supporting Governor Steve Bullock's campaign" (Tweet). Retrieved March 9, 2020 – via Twitter.
  19. @LA_Hagen (March 9, 2020). "With Bullock's entrance into #MTSEN, Democrat Cora Neumann drops out and endorses him" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  20. Stein, Perrin. "Bozeman Senate candidate drops out of race, supports Bullock". Bozeman Daily Chronicle.
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Further reading
Official campaign websites
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