2018 Maine gubernatorial election

The 2018 Maine gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor of Maine. It occurred along with elections for the U.S. Senate, U.S. House, and other state and local elections. Incumbent Republican governor Paul LePage was term limited and could not seek a third consecutive term in office; he later unsuccessfully sought a third term in 2022.[1]

See also: 2018 United States gubernatorial elections

2018 Maine gubernatorial election
November 6, 2018 (2018-11-06)
 
Nominee Janet Mills Shawn Moody Terry Hayes
Party Democratic Republican Independent
Popular vote 320,962 272,311 37,268
Percentage 50.9% 43.2% 5.9%
Mills:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Moody:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      
Governor before election

Paul LePage
Republican

 Elected Governor

Janet Mills
Democratic

Elections in Maine
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The primaries for this election were the first in Maine to be conducted with ranked choice voting (RCV), as opposed to a simple plurality, after voters passed a citizen referendum approving the change in 2016.[2] An advisory opinion by the Maine Supreme Judicial Court held that RCV would be unconstitutional for general elections for governor and the state legislature. This led state legislators to vote to delay its implementation pending approval of a state constitutional amendment.[3][4] Backers of a "people's veto" turned in enough signatures to suspend this law until a June referendum vote, which restored RCV for future primary and congressional elections.[5]

Governor Paul LePage threatened not to certify the results of the primary elections, saying he would "leave it up to the courts to decide."[6] He also called the use of ranked-choice voting the "most horrific thing in the world."[7] Secretary of State Matthew Dunlap said the results would be binding regardless of whether LePage certified them.[8]

The Republican nominee was businessman and 2010 independent candidate for governor Shawn Moody. The Democratic candidate was Attorney General Janet Mills. State Treasurer Terry Hayes and businessman Alan Caron had qualified for the ballot as independents, though Caron dropped out on October 29 and endorsed Mills. Former state senator and former mayor of Lewiston and Auburn John Jenkins and perennial candidate Kenneth Capron ran write-in campaigns.

Mills defeated Moody and Hayes with a majority to become the first female Governor of Maine. She also became the first gubernatorial candidate to win at least 50% of the vote since Angus King in 1998, and the first non-incumbent to do so since Kenneth M. Curtis in 1966. Mills also became the first Maine gubernatorial candidate to earn 300,000 votes and received more votes for governor than any other candidate in state history. This also marks the first gubernatorial election since 1982 that a Democrat would win a majority of the popular vote.[9]

Background

Incumbent Republican Paul LePage was term-limited, having been elected twice consecutively in 2010 and 2014. LePage did not win a majority of the vote either time (receiving 37.6% in a crowded four-way race in 2010 and 48.2% in a three-way race in 2014), with Democrats accusing independent candidate Eliot Cutler of splitting the anti-LePage vote in both instances, though Cutler finished closer to LePage than Democratic candidate Libby Mitchell in the 2010 election.[10]

Maine's history of governors elected without majorities, including LePage, was one impetus for the citizen's referendum to implement ranked choice voting.[11][12] Indeed, the last time a gubernatorial candidate received a majority of the vote was in 1998, when incumbent Governor (and current United States Senator) Angus King, an independent, won reelection with 58.6% of the vote. The last time a non-incumbent candidate received more than 50% of the vote was the 1966 gubernatorial election, which Democrat Kenneth M. Curtis won over incumbent Republican John H. Reed with 53.1% of the vote.

Though ranked-choice voting was approved by voters in a 2016 referendum, the Maine Legislature voted to delay and potentially repeal RCV for all elections after an advisory opinion by the Maine Supreme Judicial Court ruled it unconstitutional for general elections for state offices. RCV supporters succeeded in a people's veto effort to prevent the delay, which suspends it until a June 2018 referendum vote.[13] RCV supporters were victorious in the June referendum, and ranked-choice voting will remain in place for state and federal primaries and federal general elections.[14]

Republican primary

Speculation that U.S. Senator Susan Collins was considering running for governor arose during the 2015 Maine Legislative session when Representative Matt Moonen (D-Portland) introduced a bill to strip the governor (LePage at the time) of the power to appoint replacement U.S. Senators in the event of a vacancy and to instead have a special primary and general election. Moonen denied that he was motivated by Collins's possible candidacy, saying he was interested only in counterbalancing Republican-sponsored bills to change how the Maine Attorney General and Maine Secretary of State are chosen. Moonen said Collins had told him speculation about her running for governor was "silly."[15] Collins, who was the 1994 Republican nominee for Governor, told MPBN News on January 4, 2016, that though she was "baffled" by the rumors about her being interested in running for governor, many had encouraged her to run, and she would not rule it out.[16] In October 2017, Collins said she would not run for governor in 2018.[17]

No Republican candidate ruled out challenging the results of a ranked-choice primary in court. Mary Mayhew called for the immediate repeal of RCV, calling it a "scam" and "probably illegal".[18]

The Maine Republican Party filed a federal lawsuit in U.S. District Court in Bangor on May 4, 2018, seeking to bar the use of RCV for its own primary on the grounds that requiring the party to use it violates its First Amendment rights to choose its nominee as it sees fit.[19] U.S. District Court Judge Jon Levy rejected the suit on May 29.[20]

Nominated
  • Shawn Moody, businessman and independent candidate for governor in 2010[21]

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements
Ken Fredette
Federal politicians
  • Marco Rubio, United States senator from Florida and 2016 presidential candidate[33]
Garrett Mason
Federal politicians
  • Ted Cruz, United States senator from Texas and 2016 presidential candidate[34]
Mary Mayhew
Federal politicians
Local and statewide politicians
  • Susan Austin, state representative[36]
  • Richard Bradstreet, state representative[36]
  • Richard Campbell, state representative[36]
  • Paul Chace, state representative[36]
  • Garrel Craig, state representative[36]
  • Scott Cyrway, state senator[36]
  • Robert Foley, state representative[36]
  • Phyllis Ginzler, state representative[36]
  • James Hamper, state senator[36]
  • Jeffery Hanley, state representative[36]
  • Matthew Harrington, state representative[36]
  • Stephanie Hawke, state representative[36]
  • Gary Hilliard, state representative[36]
  • Chris Johansen, state representative[36]
  • Jonathan Kinney, state representative[36]
  • Bob Macdonald, former mayor of Lewiston[37]
  • Richard Malaby, state representative[36]
  • Beth O'Connor, state representative[36]
  • Lester Ordway, state representative[36]
  • Michael Perkins, state representative[36]
  • John Picchiotti, state representative[36]
  • Jeffrey Pierce, state representative[36]
  • Dwayne Prescott, state representative[36]
  • Deborah Sanderson, state representative[36]
  • H. Stedman Seavey, state representative[36]
  • Abden Simmons, state representative[36]
  • Paula Sutton, state representative[36]
  • Timothy Theriault, state representative[36]
  • Karleton Ward, state representative[36]
Other individuals
Shawn Moody
Individuals
Newspapers

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 RCV
round		 Ken
Fredette		 Garrett
Mason		 Mary
Mayhew		 Shawn
Moody		 Undecided
SurveyUSA April 26 – May 1, 2018 546 ± 4.8% Round 1 10% 15% 19% 34% 22%
Round 2 – 25% 26% 49% –
Round 3 – – 34% 65%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Susan
Collins		 Mary
Mayhew		 Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling August 1–2, 2017 672 – 33% 44% – 23%
28% – 62% 10%

Results
Results by county
  Moody
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Republican primary results[42]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Shawn Moody 53,436 52.6
Republican Garrett Mason 21,571 21.2
Republican Mary Mayhew 14,034 13.8
Republican Blank ballots 7,203 7.1
Republican Ken Fredette 5,341 5.3
Total votes 101,585 100.0

Democratic primary
Campaign signs for Democratic candidates for Governor Betsy Sweet, Mark Eves and Adam Cote at the 2018 Maine Democratic convention at the Androscoggin Bank Colisée in Lewiston.

Almost all Democratic candidates said that they would abide by the results of the ranked-choice primary, with only Janet Mills refusing to comment on the issue because it was being heard by the courts.[18]

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Failed to make ballot
  • Dominic A. Crocitto[50]
  • Steve DeAngelis, schoolteacher[51]
  • J. Martin Vachon[52]

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

All endorsers are Democrats unless otherwise specified

Adam Cote
Federal politicians
Local and statewide politicians
Organizations
  • Maine Council of Machinists[69]
Newspapers
Steve DeAngelis (failed to make ballot)
Individuals
Mark Dion
Local and statewide politicians
  • Benjamin Collings, state representative[72]
Other individuals
Mark Eves
Local and statewide politicians
Individuals
Organizations
Janet Mills
Local and statewide politicians
Other individuals
Organizations
Diane Russell
Organizations
Betsy Sweet
Local and statewide politicians
Other individuals
Organizations

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 RCV
round		 Adam
Cote		 Donna
Dion		 Mark
Dion		 Mark
Eves		 Janet
Mills		 Diane
Russell		 Betsy
Sweet		 Undecided
SurveyUSA April 26 – May 1, 2018 649 ± 4.2% Round 1 9% 2% 10% 16% 32% 4% 5% 24%
Round 2 13% – 13% 20% 42% 5% 6%
Round 3 13% – 13% 22% 43% – 8%
Round 4 14% – 15% 24% 48% – –
Round 5 – – 19% 26% 55% – –

Results
Results by county
  Mills
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Cote
  •   30–40%
Democratic primary results[42]
Party Candidate Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4
Votes % Transfer Votes % Transfer Votes % Transfer Votes %
Democratic Janet Mills 41,735 33.1% + 2,307 44,042 35.5% + 5,903 49,945 40.8% + 13,439 63,384 54.1%
Democratic Adam Cote 35,478 28.1% + 2,065 37,543 30.2% + 5,080 42,623 34.8% + 11,243 53,866 45.9%
Democratic Betsy Sweet 20,767 16.5% + 2,220 22,987 18.5% + 6,957 29,944 24.4% - 29,944 Eliminated
Democratic Mark Eves 17,887 14.2% + 1,634 19,521 15.7% - 19,521 Eliminated
Democratic Mark Dion 5,200 4.1% - 5,200 Eliminated
Democratic Diane Russell 2,728 2.2% - 2,728 Eliminated
Democratic Donna Dion 1,596 1.3% - 1,596 Eliminated
Democratic Write-ins 748 0.6% - 748 Eliminated
Total votes 132,250 100.0%

Green Independent primary

Withdrawn

Libertarian primary

Withdrawn

Independents

Declared
  • Kenneth A. Capron, perennial candidate, systems analyst and fraud investigator[105]^ (write-in candidate)
  • Terry Hayes, Maine State Treasurer[54]
  • John Jenkins, former mayor of Lewiston, former mayor of Auburn and former Democratic state senator[106][107]^ (write-in candidate)

^ Capron and Jenkins failed to qualify for the ballot, but continued their campaigns as write-in candidates

Withdrawn
  • Ethan Alcorn, businessman (did not qualify)[108]
  • Alan Caron, president and CEO of Envision Maine (endorsed Mills)[109]
  • Aaron D. Chadbourne, writer and activist[110] (write-in candidate, endorsed Moody)[111]

Failed to make ballot
  • Karmo Sanders, actress[112]

Declined

General election

After the primaries, most prediction models had the race as a tossup, noting Paul LePage's two victories and Hillary Clinton's narrow margin of victory in the state in the 2016 presidential election. Others considered it to be a pick-up opportunity for the Democrats.[116] Both Moody and Mills received the backing of outside money, with one PAC spending in excess of $1 million on television advertising in the state to support Mills's candidacy.[117]

On October 12, Jonathan Martin of The New York Times published an article detailing a sex discrimination complaint filed against Moody and his business in 2006, which Moody settled for $20,000, resulting in the complaint being withdrawn. The complaint alleged that Moody went to the residence of a female employee and fired her for having a child just days after delivering the child via an emergency caesarean section.[118] Moody denied the allegation through a spokesperson and later on Twitter.[119]

Though the first poll of the race saw Mills and Moody tied for first place with Hayes and Caron lagging behind, by the end of October, four different polls were released, each showing Mills with an eight-point lead over Moody. FiveThirtyEight declared the race "Likely D" when its gubernatorial projections were released in October, though other prediction models maintained the race as a tossup.

On October 29, in a press conference at the main branch of the Portland Public Library, Caron dropped out of the race and endorsed Mills. His name remained on the ballot, but any votes cast for him were regarded as blank.[120]

Shortly before 10 pm on election night, Hayes conceded the race.[121] At 12:15 am on November 7, Moody conceded the race to Mills, and shortly thereafter Mills declared victory at Democratic headquarters in Portland.[121] Mills became the first Maine gubernatorial candidate to receive more than 300,000 votes in a single election. Mills also became the first Maine gubernatorial candidate to win a majority of the vote since Angus King won nearly 59% of the vote in his re-election bid in 1998, and became the first candidate to win a majority of the popular vote for a first term since Kenneth M. Curtis defeated incumbent governor John H. Reed in 1966, though Curtis and Reed were the only candidates in that race.

The general election used plurality voting, not ranked-choice voting.

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[122] Tossup October 26, 2018
The Washington Post[123] Tossup November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[124] Likely D (flip) November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[125] Tilt D (flip) November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[126] Lean D (flip) November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[127] Lean D (flip) November 4, 2018
Daily Kos[128] Tossup November 5, 2018
Fox News[129][lower-alpha 1] Tossup November 5, 2018
Politico[130] Tossup November 5, 2018
Governing[131] Tossup November 5, 2018
Notes
  1. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Endorsements
  • Endorsements in bold were made after the primaries on June 12, 2018
Terry Hayes (I)
Local and statewide politicians
Individuals
  • Eliot Cutler, attorney and independent candidate for governor (2010 and 2014)[136]
Organizations
Janet Mills (D)
National politicians
Local and statewide politicians
Other individuals
Organizations
Trade unions
Media
Shawn Moody (R)
State and local politicians
Other individuals
Organizations

Debates
Dates Location Mills Moody Hayes Caron Link
October 10, 2018 Portland, Maine Participant Participant Participant Participant Full debate - C-SPAN
October 25, 2018 Augusta, Maine Participant Participant Participant Participant Full debate - C-SPAN

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Shawn
Moody (R)		 Janet
Mills (D)		 Terry
Hayes (I)		 Alan
Caron (I)		 Other Undecided
Slingshot Strategies (I-Hayes) November 1, 2018 518 – 38% 55% 7% – – –
Emerson College October 27–29, 2018 883 ± 3.5% 42% 50% – – 5% 4%
Pan Atlantic Research October 1–7, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 36% 44% 8% 2% – 10%
Change Research September 30 – October 1, 2018 801 – 44% 52% – – – –
Slingshot Strategies (I-Hayes) September 26–30, 2018 600 – 33% 41% 10% 2% 0% 13%
Suffolk University August 2–6, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 39% 39% 4% 3% – 16%
Hypothetical polling
if ranked-choice voting were used
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Shawn
Moody (R)		 Janet
Mills (D)		 Terry
Hayes (I)		 Alan
Caron (I)		 Undecided
Slingshot Strategies (I-Hayes) November 1, 2018 518 – 37% 49% 11% – 3%
Slingshot Strategies (I-Hayes) Archived October 15, 2018, at the Wayback Machine September 26–30, 2018 600 – 42% 45% 9% 4% –

Results
Maine gubernatorial election, 2018[162]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Janet Mills 320,962 50.89% +7.52%
Republican Shawn Moody 272,311 43.18% -5.01%
Independent Terry Hayes 37,268 5.91% N/A
Write-in 126 0.02% N/A
Total votes 630,667 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

Results by county
Janet Mills
(Democratic)		 Shawn Moody
(Republican)		 Terry Hayes
(Independent)		 Total
County Votes  % Votes  % Votes  % Votes
Androscoggin19,80144.0%21,90348.6%3,3377.4%45,041
Aroostook10,36038.2%14,49853.5%2,2388.3%27,096
Cumberland95,34661.2%53,08834.1%7,3734.7%155,807
Franklin7,08350.3%6,25444.4%7385.2%14,075
Hancock15,22854.1%11,35640.4%1,5495.5%28,133
Kennebec26,77747.9%25,75246.0%3,4226.1%55,951
Knox11,69157.4%7,69437.8%9854.8%20,370
Lincoln9,67650.9%8,32443.8%1,0195.4%19,019
Oxford10,51041.1%12,34248.2%2,74210.7%25,594
Penobscot29,00445.2%31,57249.2%3,6405.7%64,216
Piscataquis2,88738.7%4,10955.1%4646.2%7,460
Sagadahoc10,15253.2%7,71440.4%1,2106.3%19,076
Somerset8,52441.0%11,04853.2%1,2045.8%20,776
Waldo10,10951.6%8,39742.9%1,0835.5%19,589
Washington5,73644.0%6,53350.1%7705.9%13,039
York48,07850.4%41,72743.8%5,4945.8%95,299

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Mills won 1 of the 2 congressional districts. Moody won the other, which elected a Democrat.[163]

District Mills Moody Hayes Representative
1st 55.89% 38.85% 5.26% Chellie Pingree
2nd 44.99% 48.34% 6.68% Jared Golden

See also

References
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  148. Emerson, Anthony [@AnthonyEmerso14] (September 19, 2018). "Monica Wood is on the host committee for this Sunday's Jammin' With Janet event #mepolitics" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  149. @equalitymaine (September 20, 2018). "We're proud to announce our endorsement of @JanetMillsforME for Governor. She has been a fighter for LGBTQ+ Mainers over her entire career in public service. Her record is strong. Her values are clear. Janet will be a governor we can be proud of! #mepolitics #LGBTQ pic.twitter.com/f9VzXX9m1R" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
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