2018 Massachusetts gubernatorial election

The 2018 Massachusetts gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Republican Governor Charlie Baker and Lieutenant Governor Karyn Polito sought reelection to a second term in office, facing Democratic challengers Jay Gonzalez and Quentin Palfrey, respectively. Candidates were selected in the primary election held on September 4, 2018.

See also: 2018 United States gubernatorial elections

2018 Massachusetts gubernatorial election
November 6, 2018 (2018-11-06)
Turnout60.17% Increase 9.33%[1]
 
Nominee Charlie Baker Jay Gonzalez
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Karyn Polito Quentin Palfrey
Popular vote 1,781,341 885,770
Percentage 66.6% 33.1%
Baker:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Gonzalez:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Tie:      40–50%      50%
Governor before election

Charlie Baker
Republican

 Elected Governor

Charlie Baker
Republican

Elections in
Massachusetts
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flag Massachusetts portal

Despite Massachusetts's Democratic lean, Charlie Baker retained high approval ratings and was expected to safely win re-election.

Shortly after polls closed at 8 p.m. local time, the Associated Press declared the race in favor of incumbents Baker and Polito.[2] Shortly after 9 p.m. location time, Gonzalez conceded the election.[3]

Baker was reelected with the highest vote total in the history of Massachusetts gubernatorial elections and by the widest margin since Bill Weld was reelected governor in 1994. He won many of the Commonwealth's most populated cities, including Worcester, New Bedford, and Springfield.[4] Baker almost won Boston, losing it by only around 3,000 votes, an extraordinary showing for a statewide Republican candidate in a major city.[5]

As of 2023, this is the most recent time that a Republican has won a statewide election in Massachusetts.

Background

Charlie Baker was elected in 2014 by a slim margin over then-Attorney General Martha Coakley; however, he was consistently rated as one of the most popular governors in the country.[6] Some Democrats, including Congressman Mike Capuano and Speaker of the House Bob DeLeo publicly speculated they may vote for Baker over the eventual Democratic nominee.[7] Speculated candidates such as Attorney General Maura Healey, Congressman Joe Kennedy, former State Senator Dan Wolf, and Boston Mayor Marty Walsh all declined to be candidates, leaving no prominent Democrats to challenge Baker, which was seen as a necessary prerequisite to mount a formidable challenge to him.

Because Evan Falchuk received more than 3% of the vote in the 2014 gubernatorial election, the United Independent Party gained official status.[8] Falchuck had stated that he would "certainly" run for office in 2018.[9] In 2016 however, the UIP lost its official party status after it failed to register 1% of Massachusetts voters as members.[10] Evan Falchuk later left the UIP and registered as a Democrat in early 2017.[11][12]

Republican primary

There was some concern amongst the Republican Party that Baker was too moderate, and talks of challenging him with a more conservative opponent in the primaries. GOP state committeeman Robert Cappucci told the Boston Herald that if Baker "shuns conservatives [...] there will be 100 percent an effort to try to find a conservative, viable candidate to challenge him in 2018 for governor". David Kopacz, the president of the Massachusetts Republican Assembly, also stated that Baker may face a conservative challenger in 2018.[13]

Following his 2016 election, Barnstable County Commissioner Ron Beaty, who once was tried and convicted for threatening the life of President George H. W. Bush,[14] has been making local and state headlines. He's proposed a "shark mitigation strategy" to combat the growing presence of sharks near Cape Cod beaches by baiting and shooting them, which was rejected for consideration by the commission chairman. He has also mulled a primary run against his state representative, Randy Hunt, after Hunt parked in his Barnstable County Courthouse parking spot. In September 2017 he announced he was in the process of changing the purpose of his campaign committee from a county to a statewide office. He cites the Governor's criticisms of President Donald Trump and his willingness to work with Democrats as his inspiration to run.[15] On December 8, 2017, Scott Lively announced his campaign.[16]

On December 13, 2017, Beaty stated he is no longer considering a run against Baker.[17] Scott Lively, an evangelical pastor, challenged Baker and received more than the 15% of delegate votes necessary at the state convention to qualify for ballot access. Baker won the endorsement of the party by an overwhelming margin.[18]

Baker ultimately won the nomination, but not without Lively securing 36 percent of the primary vote, leading to speculation that Baker's more moderate disposition and opposition to President Trump may have damaged his general election chances with Republican base voters.[19]

Declared
Declined

Endorsements
Charlie Baker
Local officials
Organizations
Newspapers
Scott Lively
Local officials

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Charlie
Baker		 Scott
Lively		 Other Undecided
MassINC June 22–25, 2018 399 ± 4.9% 70% 17% 2% 10%
Convention
Republican convention vote, April 28 [18]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Charlie Baker (incumbent) 1,577 69.8%
Republican Scott Lively 626 27.7%
Republican Other 57 2.5%
Total votes 2,260 100.0%
Primary
Republican gubernatorial primary results by municipality
Republican gubernatorial primary results by county:
  Baker—60–70%
  Baker—50–60%
Republican primary, September 4[26]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Charlie Baker (incumbent) 174,126 63.78%
Republican Scott Lively 98,421 36.05%
Republican All others 464 0.17%
Total votes 273,011 100.00%
Declared

Results
Republican lieutenant gubernatorial primary results by county:
  Polito—>90%
Republican primary results[27]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Karyn Polito (incumbent) 204,914 98.8
Republican All others 2,571 1.2
Total votes 207,485 100.0

Democratic primary

In November 2014, after interviewing over a dozen Democratic operatives, strategists, and activists, Joshua Miller of The Boston Globe wrote that the party would be looking for a young, fresh candidate who can appeal to the party's progressive base. He identified Attorney General Maura Healey as being "the first name on many Democratic lists".[28] Samantha Lachman of The Huffington Post also identified Healey as a potential candidate for governor in 2018 or in a future United States Senate race.[29]

As of July 2017, the declared candidates were relatively unknown to the state's voters.[30] Their identification by Democratic voters was bolstered by addressing the 2017 state Democratic Convention, which saw its largest attendance of around 3,000 delegates in years.[31]

On April 26, 2018, Setti Warren announced via Facebook that he was withdrawing from the race due to financial concerns. He stated he would not endorse either of his former opponents until the nomination is won.[32]

At the Massachusetts Democratic Convention in June, party delegates endorsed Gonzalez and Palfrey, but Bob Massie and Jimmy Tingle also surpassed the 15% threshold for ballot access by comfortable margins.[33] A poll from late June conducted by WBUR and MassInc. indicated that the contest for the Democratic nomination in the gubernatorial race is a toss-up, with Massie and Gonzalez being separated by a percentage smaller than the margin of error.

Gonzalez and Palfrey went on to win their respective nominations generously (winning almost every municipality in the state) and headed into the general election to face their Republican counterparts.

Declared
Withdrew
Declined

Endorsements
Jay Gonzalez
State-Wide Elected Officials
State legislators
Local elected officials
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers
Setti Warren (withdrew)
Officials
Organizations
Bob Massie
State legislators
Local elected officials
Party officials
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Jay
Gonzalez		 Bob
Massie		 Other Undecided
MassINC June 22–25, 2018 418 ± 4.9% 21% 15% 7% 52%

Results
Democratic gubernatorial primary results by municipality
Democratic gubernatorial primary results by county:
  Gonzalez—70–80%
  Gonzalez—60–70%
  Gonzalez—50–60%
Democratic primary results[75]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jay Gonzalez 348,434 63.17
Democratic Bob Massie 192,404 34.88
N/a All others 10,742 1.95
Total votes 551,580 100.0
Declared
Declined

Endorsements
Quentin Palfrey
National figures
State legislators
Local elected officials
Organizations
Unions
Jimmy Tingle
Federal legislators
State legislators
Local elected officials
  • Paul Schlichtman, Arlington School Committee Member

Results
Democratic lieutenant gubernatorial primary results by county:
  Palfrey—70–80%
  Palfrey—60–70%
  Palfrey—50–60%
  Tingle—40–50%
Democratic primary results[79]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Quentin Palfrey 307,240 58.5
Democratic Jimmy Tingle 214,204 40.8
n/a All others 3,757 0.7
Total votes 525,201 100.0

General election

Debates

Endorsements

All individuals belong to the nominee's party unless otherwise specified.

Charlie Baker
State legislators
Local officials
Organizations
Newspapers
Jay Gonzalez
Former U.S. Executive Branch Officials
State-Wide Elected Officials
State legislators
Local elected officials
  • Michelle Wu, At-Large Boston City Councilor, former Boston City Council President[62]
  • Candy F. Mero-Carlson, Worcester City Councilor[53]
  • Khrystian King, Worcester City Councilor[53]
  • Sean Rose, Worcester City Councilor[53]
  • Molly McCullough, Worcester School Committee Member[53]
  • Dante Comparetto, Worcester School Committee Member[53]
  • Helen Moon, Pittsfield City Council Member
  • John Krol, Pittsfield City Council Member.
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[94] Safe R October 26, 2018
The Washington Post[95] Likely R November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[96] Safe R November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[97] Safe R November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[98] Safe R November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[99] Safe R November 4, 2018
Daily Kos[100] Safe R November 5, 2018
Fox News[101][lower-alpha 1] Likely R November 5, 2018
Politico[102] Safe R November 5, 2018
Governing[103] Safe R November 5, 2018
Notes
  1. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Charlie
Baker (R)		 Jay
Gonzalez (D)		 Other Undecided
MassINC October 25–28, 2018 502 ± 4.4% 68% 25% 2% 2%
Suffolk University October 24–28, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 65% 26% – 8%
Western New England University October 10–27, 2018 402 LV ± 5.0% 65% 27% – 7%
485 RV ± 4.0% 64% 25% – 10%
UMass Lowell October 1–7, 2018 485 LV ± 5.6% 66% 27% 5% 3%
791 RV ± 4.4% 65% 26% 6% 2%
MassINC September 17–21, 2018 506 ± 4.4% 68% 24% 1% 6%
Suffolk University Archived 2018-09-20 at the Wayback Machine September 13–17, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 55% 28% – 17%
Suffolk University Archived 2018-06-15 at the Wayback Machine June 8–12, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 52% 22% – 25%
MassINC May 22–26, 2018 501 ± 4.4% 60% 20% 1% 19%
MassINC March 16–18, 2018 504 ± 4.4% 60% 21% 2% 15%
MassINC November 9–12, 2017 503 ± 4.4% 59% 19% 3% 18%
MassINC June 19–22, 2017 504 ± 4.4% 55% 22% 1% 20%
Hypothetical polling
with Setti Warren
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Charlie
Baker (R)		 Setti
Warren (D)		 Other Undecided
MassINC March 16–18, 2018 504 ± 4.4% 58% 24% 3% 13%
MassINC November 9–12, 2017 504 ± 4.4% 58% 24% 2% 15%
MassINC June 19–22, 2017 504 ± 4.4% 53% 26% 1% 17%
UMass Amherst September 15–20, 2016 400 ± 4.1% 40% 17% – 36%
with Katherine Clark
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Charlie
Baker (R)		 Katherine
Clark (D)		 Undecided
UMass Amherst September 15–20, 2016 400 ± 4.1% 39% 24% 31%
with Maura Healey
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Charlie
Baker (R)		 Maura
Healey (D)		 Undecided
MassINC June 19–22, 2017 504 ± 4.4% 48% 36% 13%
UMass Amherst September 15–20, 2016 400 ± 4.1% 43% 25% 29%
Gravis Marketing July 12–13, 2016 901 ± 3.3% 56% 30% 14%
with Joseph P. Kennedy III
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Charlie
Baker (R)		 Joseph P.
Kennedy III (D)		 Undecided
UMass Amherst September 15–20, 2016 400 ± 4.1% 33% 33% 29%
Gravis Marketing July 12–13, 2016 901 ± 3.3% 50% 38% 12%
with Bob Massie
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Charlie
Baker (R)		 Bob
Massie (D)		 Other Undecided
Suffolk University Archived 2018-06-15 at the Wayback Machine June 8–12, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 54% 21% – 25%
MassINC May 22–26, 2018 501 ± 4.4% 60% 20% 1% 17%
MassINC March 16–18, 2018 504 ± 4.4% 59% 22% 2% 16%
MassINC November 9–12, 2017 504 ± 4.4% 60% 21% 2% 16%
MassINC June 19–22, 2017 504 ± 4.4% 55% 25% 1% 17%
with Seth Moulton
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Charlie
Baker (R)		 Seth
Moulton (D)		 Undecided
UMass Amherst September 15–20, 2016 400 ± 4.1% 39% 21% 34%
with Marty Walsh
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Charlie
Baker (R)		 Marty
Walsh (D)		 Undecided
UMass Amherst September 15–20, 2016 400 ± 4.1% 37% 28% 32%

Results
Results by municipality
Massachusetts gubernatorial election, 2018[104]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Charlie Baker (incumbent) 1,781,341 66.60% Increase18.20
Democratic Jay Gonzalez 885,770 33.12% Decrease13.42
Write-in 7,504 0.28% Increase0.19
Total votes 2,674,615 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

Results by county
2018 United States gubernatorial election in Massachusetts (by county) [105]
County Baker % Baker # Gonzalez % Gonzalez # Others % Others # Total #
Barnstable71.7%85,72625.2%30,1693.0%3,599119,494
Berkshire51.6%28,331 45.5%25,0302.9%1,59254,953
Bristol68.5%132,37128.1%54,2803.3%6,458193,109
Dukes54.1%5,55643.5%4,4702.5%25310,279
Essex69.2%219,52227.4%86,8933.4%10,849317,264
Franklin54.6%18,26343.4%14,5072.0%67033,440
Hampden69.1%109,95227.5%43,8063.4%5,416159,174
Hampshire52.0%37,27245.6%32,6672.5%1,76471,703
Middlesex60.7%411,68736.3%246,1973.0%20,294678,178
Nantucket56.8%2,38841.6%1,7501.6%674,205
Norfolk67.1%209,31829.7%92,7093.2%10,125312,152
Plymouth72.4%164,43823.9%54,3033.7%8,472227,213
Suffolk49.1%125,24748.0%122,2492.9%7,346254,842
Worcester73.0%231,27024.2%76,7402.7%8,649316,659

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Baker won 8 of 9 congressional districts, all of which elected Democrats.[106]

District Baker Gonzalez Representative
1st 67.24% 32.76% Richard Neal
2nd 68.85% 31.15% Jim McGovern
3rd 71.3% 28.7% Lori Trahan
4th 69.49% 30.51% Joe Kennedy III
5th 60.39% 39.61% Katherine Clark
6th 73.52% 26.48% Seth Moulton
7th 43.78% 56.22% Ayanna Pressley
8th 68.43% 31.53% Stephen Lynch
9th 73.19% 26.81% Bill Keating

See also

References
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Official campaign websites for gubernatorial candidates
Official campaign websites for lieutenant gubernatorial candidates
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