2018 United States Senate election in Michigan

The 2018 United States Senate election in Michigan took place on November 6, 2018, in order to elect the Class 1 U.S. Senator from the State of Michigan, concurrently with a gubernatorial election, as well as other elections to the U.S. House of Representatives.

For related races, see 2018 United States Senate elections.

2018 United States Senate election in Michigan
November 6, 2018
Turnout56.72%
 
Nominee Debbie Stabenow John James
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 2,214,478 1,938,818
Percentage 52.3% 45.8%
Stabenow:      40-50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
James:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Tie:      40–50%
     No data
U.S. senator before election

Debbie Stabenow
Democratic

 Elected U.S. Senator

Debbie Stabenow
Democratic

Elections in Michigan
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Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow won reelection to a fourth term. On August 7, 2018, John James won the Republican nomination, defeating businessman Sandy Pensler.[1] On May 5, 2018, Marcia Squier received the endorsement and nomination of the Green Party of Michigan at the state convention in Flint.[2]

Stabenow was re-elected by a 6.5% margin and a difference of 275,660 votes,[3] making this the second-closest U.S. Senate election in Michigan since Stabenow was first elected in 2000.[4]

Democratic primary

Nominee

Declined

Withdrew
  • Craig Allen Smith

Endorsements
Debbie Stabenow
Organizations
Individuals

Results
Democratic primary results[14]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Debbie Stabenow (incumbent) 1,045,450 100.00%
Total votes 1,045,450 100.00%

Republican primary

Nominee

Defeated in primary
  • Sandy Pensler, Former Wayne County Commissioner, businessman and candidate for MI-08 in 1992[17][16]

Failed to qualify
  • Bob Carr, historic preservationist, businessman and nominee for MI-01 in 1996[18][16]

Declined

Withdrew

Endorsements
John James
U.S. President
U.S. Vice President
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
U.S. Governors
State Senators[38][39][40]
State Representatives[38]
Judges
Cabinet-level Officials
  • John R. Bolton, former United States Ambassador to the United Nations, current National Security Advisor[42]
Individuals
Local Officials
Organizations
Newspapers
Sandy Pensler
Bob Young Jr. (endorsed James)
Notable Figures

Debates

A debate was held between John James and Sandy Pensler on July 6 and televised by WKAR-TV. It was the only televised debate scheduled between the two candidates.[69]

Polling
Poll
source		 Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 John
James		 Sandy
Pensler		 Other Undecided
Mitchell Research July 30, 2018 413 ± 5.0% 44% 30% – 26%
EPIC-MRA July 21–22, 2018 1,045 ± 3.1% 39% 38% – 23%
Emerson College Archived 2018-07-31 at the Wayback Machine July 19–21, 2018 202 ± 7.3% 28% 28% – 44%
Marist College July 15–19, 2018 337 ± 6.3% 30% 23% 1% 46%
National Research Inc. (R-Outsider PAC) July 11–14, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 21% 28% 10% 41%
Target-Insyght June 24–26, 2018 400 ± 5.0% 29% 32% – 39%
Strategic National (R) June 16–21, 2018 1,000 ± 3.1% 18% 33% – 49%
Strategic National (R) June 9–10, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 16% 29% – 54%
Marketing Resource Group (R-Pensler) May 28–29, 2018 627 ± 3.8% 26% 36% – 38%
Strategic National (R) April 21, 2018 350 ± 5.2% 13% 26% – 61%
Strategic National (R) April 4–5, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 12% 20% – 68%
Denno Research April 2–3, 2018 500 ± 4.0% 12% 16% – 72%
Strategic National (R) March 19–20, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 17% 21% – 62%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 John
James		 Sandy
Pensler		 Fred
Upton		 Robert
Young		 Undecided
Strategic National (R) December 16–17, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 9% 5% – 11% 75%
Target-Insyght November 1–6, 2017 1,000 – 24% – 19% 7% –
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Lena
Epstein		 Bob
Young		 John
James		 Robert
Ritchie		 Undecided
Zogby Analytics September, 2017 –[lower-alpha 1] – 7% 3% 5% 29% 56%
Trafalgar Group (R) July 25–27, 2017 1,078 ± 3.1% 9% 6% 7% 50% 28%
Target-Insyght July 25–27, 2017 344 ± 5.35 8% 14% 16% 33% 29%

Results
Results by county:
James
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Pensler
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Republican primary results[14]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican John James 518,564 54.67%
Republican Sandy Pensler 429,885 45.32%
Write-in 57 <0.01%
Total votes 948,506 100.00%

Green Party Convention

The Green Party of Michigan picked their candidates at a state convention on May 5, 2018.

Declared

Withdrew

General election

Debates

Fundraising
Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party) Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
Debbie Stabenow (D) $17,449,325.17 $15,720,981.25 $2,842,613.58
John James (R) $9,838,137.84 $7,953,403.16 $1,884,735.02
Source: Federal Election Commission[73]

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[74] Likely D October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[75] Safe D November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[76] Safe D November 5, 2018
CNN[77] Likely D November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[78] Lean D November 5, 2018
Fox News[79][lower-alpha 2] Likely D November 5, 2018
Notes
  1. Not yet released, but is Republican primary subsample of full 800 voter sample in Michigan
  2. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Endorsements
Debbie Stabenow (D)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Organizations
Individuals
John James (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
U.S. Governors
State Senators[38][39][40]
State Representatives[38]
Judges
Cabinet-level Officials
  • John R. Bolton, former United States Ambassador to the United Nations, current National Security Advisor[42]
Individuals
Local Officials
Organizations
Newspapers

Polling


Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Debbie
Stabenow (D)		 John
James (R)		 Other Undecided
Mitchell Research November 5, 2018 827 ± 3.4% 49% 46% 1% 4%
The Trafalgar Group (R) November 2–5, 2018 1,817 ± 2.3% 53% 44% 1% 2%
Mitchell Research November 4, 2018 701 ± 3.7% 53% 46% 0% 1%
Change Research November 2–4, 2018 880 – 49% 47% 3%[97] –
Research Co. November 1–3, 2018 450 ± 4.6% 52% 36% 1% 11%
Gravis Marketing October 29–30, 2018 764 ± 3.6% 54% 41% – 6%
Glengariff Group October 25–27, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 53% 36% 3%[98] 8%
Emerson College October 24–26, 2018 822 ± 3.6% 52% 43% 1% 4%
Mitchell Research October 25, 2018 400 ± 5.0% 52% 46% 0% 2%
Target-Insyght Archived 2018-11-07 at the Wayback Machine October 22–24, 2018 800 ± 3.0% 53% 43% 4%[99] 1%
EPIC-MRA October 18–23, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 49% 42% 5% 4%
The Tarrance Group (R)[upper-alpha 1] October 20–22, 2018 605 ± 4.1% 48% 41% 4% 7%
Michigan State University October 13–22, 2018 169 – 49% 42% – –
Marketing Resource Group Archived 2018-10-24 at the Wayback Machine October 14–18, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 53% 37% – 5%
Mitchell Research September 30 – October 7, 2018 654 ± 3.8% 51% 42% – 8%
Glengariff Group September 30 – October 2, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 53% 35% 3% 10%
EPIC-MRA Archived 2018-09-28 at the Wayback Machine September 21–25, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 56% 33% 5% 6%
Ipsos September 14–24, 2018 1,150 ± 3.0% 55% 35% 4% 6%
Target-Insyght September 10–14, 2018 800 ± 3.0% 55% 40% – –
Mitchell Research September 12–13, 2018 1,009 ± 3.0% 54% 41% – 5%
Strategic National (R) September 8–9, 2018 1,000 ± 3.1% 53% 35% – 11%
Glengariff Group September 5–7, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 56% 33% 2% 10%
Gravis Marketing August 14–16, 2018 647 ± 3.9% 51% 35% – 14%
Strategic National (R) August 13–14, 2018 700 ± 3.7% 50% 35% 2% 13%
The Tarrance Group (R)[upper-alpha 1] August 11–14, 2018 602 ± 4.1% 49% 38% 3% 9%
Emerson College Archived 2018-07-31 at the Wayback Machine July 19–21, 2018 600 ± 4.3% 47% 29% 8% 17%
Marist College July 15–19, 2018 886 ± 3.9% 55% 37% 1% 8%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018 978 ± 5.0% 54% 42% – 4%
Glengariff Group January 16–19, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 51% 30% – 18%
Hypothetical polling
with Sandy Pensler
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Debbie
Stabenow (D)		 Sandy
Pensler (R)		 Other Undecided
Emerson College Archived 2018-07-31 at the Wayback Machine July 19–21, 2018 600 ± 4.3% 48% 32% 7% 13%
Marist College July 15–19, 2018 886 ± 3.9% 52% 37% 1% 10%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018 978 ± 5.0% 53% 41% – 5%
Glengariff Group January 16–19, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 51% 30% – 18%
with generic Democrat and Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Debbie
Stabenow (D)		 Generic
Republican		 Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios February 12 – March 5, 2018 2,012 ± 3.8% 49% 45% 6%
with Robert Ritchie (a.k.a. Kid Rock)
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Debbie
Stabenow (D)		 Robert
Ritchie (R)		 Undecided
Mitchell/Rosetta Stone October 1, 2017 558 ± 4.2% 46% 38% 16%
Zogby Analytics September 19, 2017 800 ± 3.4% 46% 36% 18%
Marketing Resource Group September 13–18, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 52% 34% 14%
Target-Insyght July 25–27, 2017 822 ± 3.5% 50% 42% 8%
Trafalgar Group (R) July 25–27, 2017 1,078 ± 3.1% 46% 49% 5%

Results

Although Stabenow ended up winning the election by 6.5 percent, the margin was smaller than expected, considering the polling and past results of Senate elections in Michigan.[4] Part of the relative closeness of the race has been attributed to the Stabenow campaign having run no negative ads against James during the election.[100] Although James won most of Michigan's smaller counties, Stabenow won large margins in urban areas and modest margins in suburban areas. Stabenow trounced James in Wayne County, home of Detroit, and also performed well in Detroit's suburbs. She also easily won in Washtenaw County, home of Ann Arbor and Ingham County, home of Lansing. Kent County, home of Grand Rapids, also narrowly flipped to Stabenow, making this the first Senate election of her career in which she carried the county, and also the only county to flip her direction in 2018, and only the second time (after Carl Levin in 2008) a Democrat had carried the county since Donald Riegle in 1982. In addition to Stabenow's win, Democrats won the previously Republican-held offices of Governor, Secretary of State, and Attorney General, ensuring that as of January 1, 2019, all elected statewide officials would be Democrats. James once again ran unsuccessfully for the other Senate seat in 2020, as he was defeated by incumbent Gary Peters. James would later be elected as a Representative in Michigan's 10th congressional district in 2022.

2018 United States Senate election in Michigan [101]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Debbie Stabenow (incumbent) 2,214,478 52.26% -6.54%
Republican John James 1,938,818 45.76% +7.78%
Green Marcia Squier 40,204 0.95% +0.35%
Constitution George Huffman III 27,251 0.65% +0.09%
Natural Law John Howard Wilhelm 16,502 0.39% +0.15%
Write-in 18 <0.01% N/A
Total votes 4,237,271 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Stabenow won 7 of 14 congressional districts.[102]

District James Stabenow Representative
1st 54.39% 43.44% Jack Bergman
2nd 55.19% 42.52% Bill Huizenga
3rd 51.08% 46.67% Justin Amash
4th 56.73% 41.01% John Moolenaar
5th 43.05% 54.73% Dan Kildee
6th 50.37% 47.18% Fred Upton
7th 52.94% 45.02% Tim Walberg
8th 49.0% 49.37% Elissa Slotkin
9th 39.7% 58.46% Andy Levin
10th 58.1% 40.1% Paul Mitchell
11th 47.76% 50.87% Haley Stevens
12th 31.93% 66.32% Debbie Dingell
13th 17.8% 79.87% Rashida Tlaib
14th 19.55% 78.9% Brenda Lawrence

Notes
    Partisan clients
    1. Poll conducted for James' campaign.

    References
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    82. Gary Peters. "I can't think of anyone who works harder or cares more deeply about her state than @Stabenow. I would know: I've seen her focus, hard-work & effectiveness up close in the Senate. I can't wait to vote for my good friend. Read about why I'm supporting her". Twitter.
    83. Dan Kildee. "We deserve leaders who understand that a strong middle class means a strong country. We deserve leaders who will protect Social Security and Medicare and expand access to affordable health care. That's why we deserve @GretchenWhitmer, @Stabenow & Democrats up and down the ballot". Twitter.
    84. Brenda Lawrence. "Attended four churches in Pontiac today with our United States Senator Debbie @Stabenow, my mentor and dear friend. I am so excited to vote for her November 6th and I hope you join me! #TeamBrenda #PrayersUp @TeamStabenow". Twitter.
    85. Joe Kennedy. "In just 6 short weeks, young Americans can change the trajectory of this nation. Grateful to @CollegeDemsatUM for showing up on a Wednesday morning and for fighting to be proud of the country they call home. #DemsLIVE". Twitter.
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    90. Rudy Giuliani. "Don James is running for Senate in Michigan. He is a combat veteran, a successful business man and believes in lower taxes, more jobs, effective health care and safety and security. He's the future of our party. Let's make that future now.. Vote for Don James". Twitter.
    91. Rudy Giuliani. "Sorry for the mistake with JOHN JAMES first name but you'd be making one if you don't elect him to Senate from Michigan.The tweet was not planned but spontaneous.I saw his interview and record-military, business-and said this is a true leader,not the same old. He's exceptional". Twitter.
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    97. George E. Huffman III (U.S. Taxpayers), Marcia Squier (G), and John Howard Wilhelm (Natural Law) with 1%
    98. George E. Huffman III (U.S. Taxpayers), Marcia Squier (G) with 1%, John Howard Wilhelm (Natural Law) with 0%
    99. Marcia Squier (G) with 2%, George Huffman (U.S. Taxpayers) and John Howard Wilhelm (Natural Law) with 1%
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    Official campaign websites
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