2018 New Mexico gubernatorial election

The 2018 New Mexico gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor of New Mexico, concurrently with the election of New Mexico's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various local elections.

See also: 2018 United States gubernatorial elections

2018 New Mexico gubernatorial election
November 6, 2018
 
Nominee Michelle Lujan Grisham Steve Pearce
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate Howie Morales Michelle Garcia Holmes
Popular vote 398,368 298,091
Percentage 57.2% 42.8%
Lujan Grisham:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Pearce:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      50%
     No data
Governor before election

Susana Martinez
Republican

 Elected Governor

Michelle Lujan Grisham
Democratic

Elections in New Mexico
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Mayoral elections

Incumbent Republican governor Susana Martinez was term-limited and could not seek a third consecutive term. Following party primaries on June 5, 2018, U.S. Representative Steve Pearce was the Republican nominee and U.S. Representative Michelle Lujan Grisham was the Democratic nominee. Lujan Grisham won the election by a substantial margin, which in fact was a complete and exact reversal of the 2014 gubernatorial results. Her win also signaled a continuation of the pattern of the partisanship of the office changing every two terms, beginning with Gary Johnson's first election in 1994. Furthermore, the pattern of the partisanship changing with each officeholder was continued, a pattern first started after Toney Anaya left office in 1987. Furthermore, the margin between the candidates (57.2% to 42.8%) was the same as the previous election, albeit with the parties switched.

Background

At the presidential level, New Mexico has begun to trend into a Democratic-leaning swing state. It has gone Democratic in all but one presidential election since 1992. The only break in this trend came in 2004, when George W. Bush won it by less than a point. However, in 2008, Barack Obama won the state over John McCain by 15 points and in 2012 by 10 points over Mitt Romney. In 2016, Democrat Hillary Clinton defeated Republican Donald Trump by eight points.

However, in 2010, then-District Attorney of New Mexico's Third Judicial District Susana Martinez won the election, becoming the first US Latina Governor, over Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish, former running mate of two-term Democrat Bill Richardson, by approximately seven points. In 2014, Martinez was re-elected over state Attorney General Gary King by nearly 15 points. It has been described as one of the Democrats' best chances at a pickup, due to Gov. Martinez's unpopularity and because "she's leaving behind a high unemployment rate and struggling education system."[1]

The 2018 primary election results show 116,311 votes for Democratic candidate Michelle Lujan Grisham and a total of 175,182 for all three Democratic candidates while Republican candidate/nominee Steve Pearce received 74,705; note that 23% of New Mexico's registered voters are third party or independents (280,000), who do not vote in the primary election.

Republican primary
Nominated
Declined

Results
Republican primary results[8]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Steve Pearce 74,705 100.0
Total votes 74,705 100.0
Declared
Withdrew
  • Kelly Zunie, former secretary of the New Mexico Indian Affairs Department[10][11]
Declined

Results
Republican primary results[8]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Michelle Garcia Holmes 67,259 100.0
Total votes 67,259 100.0

Democratic primary
Nominated

Eliminated in primary
Declined

Endorsements
Jeff Apodaca
Local and statewide politicians
Individuals

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Jeff
Apodaca		 Joe
Cervantes		 Michelle
Lujan Grisham		 Other Undecided
Research & Polling, Inc. May 20–24, 2018 444 (LV) ± 4.6% 15% 9% 57% – 19%
GQR Research (D)[upper-alpha 1] February 14–19, 2018 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 13% 6% 72% 2%[lower-alpha 2] 6%
GQR Research (D)[upper-alpha 2] October 12–18, 2017 446 (LV) ± 4.6% 10% 3% 75% 2%[lower-alpha 2] 10%

Results
Results by county:
  Lujan Grisham—70–80%
  Lujan Grisham—60–70%
  Lujan Grisham—50–60%
  Lujan Grisham—40–50%
  Apodaca—40–50%
Democratic primary results[8]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Michelle Lujan Grisham 116,311 66.4
Democratic Jeff Apodaca 38,779 22.2
Democratic Joe Cervantes 20,092 11.5
Total votes 175,182 100.0
Declared
Withdrew
Declined

Results
Results by county:
  Morales—80–90%
  Morales—70–80%
  Morales—60–70%
  Morales—50–60%
  Morales—40–50%
  Morales—<40%
  Tie– Miera/Morales
  Miera—40–50%
  Garrett—40–50%
Democratic primary results[8]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Howie Morales 75,515 47.1
Democratic Rick Miera 51,044 31.8
Democratic Billy Garrett 33,761 21.1
Total votes 160,320 100.0

Libertarian primary

Based on the party's voter registration numbers and presidential nominee Gary Johnson's result in 2016, the Libertarian Party holds major-party status in New Mexico.[43] Under New Mexico law, both gubernatorial and lieutenant governor candidates must receive each at least 230 signatures from registered Libertarian voters to formally receive the nomination and be placed on the ballot as the Libertarian nominees. Both Walsh and Dunn failed to meet that requirement and were not on the ballot.[44]

Declared
  • Bob Walsh, retired mathematician[45]
Declined

Results
Libertarian primary results[8]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Bob Walsh (write-in) 175 100.0
Total votes 175 100.0
Declared

Results
Libertarian primary results[8]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Robin Dunn (write-in) 177 100.0
Total votes 177 100.0

General election

Endorsements
Steve Pearce (R)
Federal officials
Sheriffs[52]
County Commissioners
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers
Michelle Lujan Grisham (D)
Federal officials
U.S Senators
U.S. Representatives
Local and statewide politicians
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations

Debates

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[89] Lean D (flip) October 26, 2018
The Washington Post[90] Lean D (flip) November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[91] Likely D (flip) November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[92] Lean D (flip) November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[93] Lean D (flip) November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[94] Lean D (flip) November 4, 2018
Daily Kos[95] Lean D (flip) November 5, 2018
Fox News[96][lower-alpha 3] Lean D (flip) November 5, 2018
Politico[97] Likely D (flip) November 5, 2018
Governing[98] Lean D (flip) November 5, 2018

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Steve
Pearce (R)		 Michelle Lujan
Grisham (D)		 Undecided
Research Co. November 1–3, 2018 450 (V) ± 4.6% 41% 53% 6%
Research & Polling, Inc. October 26 – November 1, 2018 993 (LV) ± 3.1% 43% 53% 4%
Carroll Strategies October 29, 2018 1,200 (LV) ± 2.8% 45% 51% 4%
Emerson College October 24–26, 2018 936 (LV) ± 3.4% 44% 53% 4%
GQR Research (D)[upper-alpha 1] October 22–26, 2018 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 53% 4%
Pacific Market Research October 19–24, 2018 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 39% 48% 13%
NSON Opinion Strategy (L)[upper-alpha 3] September 20–24, 2018 932 (LV) – 40% 44% 16%
Research & Polling, Inc. September 7–13, 2018 966 (LV) ± 3.1% 43% 50% –
Global Strategy Group (D)[upper-alpha 4] August 27–30, 2018 601 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 52% 5%
GQR Research (D)[upper-alpha 1] August 18–22, 2018 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 52% –
Emerson College August 17–18, 2018 500 (RV) ± 4.6% 40% 42% 18%
The Tarrance Group (R)[upper-alpha 5] April 9–12, 2018 608 (LV) ± 4.1% 45% 47% 8%
The Tarrance Group (R) May 20–23, 2017 605 (RV) ± 4.1% 43% 47% 10%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Steve
Pearce (R)		 Michelle Lujan
Grisham (D)		 Bob
Walsh (L)		 Undecided
NSON Opinion Strategy (L) July 2018 500 (LV) – 37% 44% 7% 11%
SurveyUSA June 19–23, 2018 535 (LV) ± 5.0% 38% 51% 3% 8%
Carroll Strategies June 15–16, 2018 1,199 (LV) ± 2.8% 42% 51% 3% 4%

Results
2018 New Mexico gubernatorial election
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Michelle Lujan Grisham 398,368 57.20% +14.42%
Republican Steve Pearce 298,091 42.80% -14.42%
Total votes 696,459 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

By county
[99] Michelle Lujan Grisham
Democrat		 Steve Pearce
Republican		 Total
County Votes  % Votes  % Votes
Bernalillo149,48062.10%91,22137.90%240,701
Catron51127.73%1,33272.27%1,843
Chaves5,34832.02%11,35267.98%16,700
Cibola3,98855.94%3,14144.06%7,129
Colfax2,32749.91%2,33550.09%4,662
Curry3,10630.41%7,10769.59%10,213
De Baca22928.06%58771.94%816
Doña Ana36,95460.64%23,98539.36%60,939
Eddy4,63129.29%11,17870.71%15,809
Grant7,04359.72%4,75040.28%11,793
Guadalupe1,02160.27%67339.73%1,694
Harding17837.24%30062.76%478
Hidalgo78548.25%84251.75%1,627
Lea3,08622.15%10,84577.85%13,931
Lincoln2,62533.48%5,21666.52%7,841
Los Alamos6,00558.61%4,24041.39%10,245
Luna2,96748.30%3,17651.70%6,143
McKinley13,11771.46%5,23828.54%18,355
Mora1,66471.05%67828.95%2,342
Otero6,45037.73%10,64462.27%17,094
Quay1,14437.03%1,94562.97%3,089
Rio Arriba9,35273.00%3,45927.00%12,811
Roosevelt1,43030.74%3,22269.26%4,652
San Juan13,34735.78%23,96164.22%37,308
San Miguel7,00175.78%2,23824.22%9,239
Sandoval30,42555.09%24,80344.91%55,228
Santa Fe52,69278.54%14,39421.46%67,086
Sierra1,88039.81%2,84360.19%4,723
Socorro3,59657.44%2,66442.56%6,260
Taos11,80681.46%2,68718.54%14,493
Torrance2,04838.17%3,31761.83%5,365
Union41528.15%1,05971.85%1,474
Valencia11,71748.07%12,65951.93%24,376

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Grisham won 2 of 3 congressional districts.[100]

District Pearce Lujan Grisham Representative
1st 39% 61% Michelle Lujan Grisham
Deb Haaland
2nd 53% 47% Steve Pearce
Xochitl Torres Small
3rd 39% 61% Ben Ray Luján

See also

Notes
  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Peter DeBenedittis with 2%
  3. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races
Partisan clients
  1. Poll conducted for Lujan Grisham's campaign.
  2. Poll conducted for The Majority Institute, a research and strategy hub affiliated with the Democratic Party.
  3. Poll conducted for the Elect Liberty PAC, an organization dedicated to promoting Libertarian candidates.
  4. Poll conducted for Hector Balderas, the incumbent New Mexico Attorney General.
  5. Poll conducted for Pearce's campaign.

References
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  3. Haussamen, Heath (August 10, 2016). "Q&A: Land Commissioner Dunn has his own proposal to fund early childhood programs". NMPolitics.net. Retrieved December 8, 2016.
  4. Oxford, Andrew (May 13, 2017). "Pearce confirms he's weighing run for governor". The Santa Fe New Mexican. Retrieved May 15, 2017.
  5. Terrell, Steve (July 10, 2017). "Land Commissioner Dunn will announce his political plans early next week". The Santa Fe New Mexican. Retrieved July 12, 2017.
  6. Terrell, Steve (December 7, 2016). "Citing strength as senator, Udall says he won't run for governor in 2018". The Santa Fe New Mexican. Retrieved December 8, 2016.
  7. Terrell, Steve (July 11, 2017). "John Sanchez NOT running for governor". The Santa Fe New Mexican. Retrieved July 12, 2017.
  8. "New Mexico Election Results". electionresults.sos.state.nm.us/. New Mexico Secretary of State. June 6, 2018.
  9. Oxford, Andrew (November 30, 2017). "Newly registered Republican makes bid to become GOP lieutenant governor nominee". The Santa Fe New Mexican. Retrieved December 6, 2017.
  10. Chacón, Daniel J. (August 15, 2017). "Native American running for GOP lieutenant governor spot". The Santa Fe New Mexican. Retrieved September 1, 2017.
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  39. Terrell, Steve (July 19, 2017). "State Sen. Padilla will run for lieutenant governor". The Santa Fe New Mexican. Retrieved September 1, 2017.
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  43. Press release
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  58. "ANNOUNCEMENT". RTLNM. Archived from the original on August 13, 2018.
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  62. Barack Obama. "Today, I'm proud to endorse even more Democratic candidates who aren't just running against something, but for something—to expand opportunity for all of us and to restore dignity, honor, and compassion to public service. They deserve your vote". Twitter.
  63. Michelle Lujan Grisham [@Michelle4NM] (June 20, 2018). "VP @JoeBiden has been a strong advocate for hard-working Americans. I am so honored to have his support & am proud to work every day to protect the legacy that he & @POTUS44 left caring for those who need our help the most. More here: bit.ly/2tnJChG #nmpol #TeamMichelle" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  64. Martin Heinrich. "This is where eight years of Republican leadership has gotten us. We need a governor who will work with Martin to bring more opportunities to New Mexico — @Michelle4NM is that person". Twitter.
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  66. Elizabeth Warren. "Michelle Lujan Grisham's opponent for New Mexico governor spread Obama birther conspiracy theories & wrote that a wife should "voluntarily submit" to her husband. Time to draw a line in the sand. Pitch in & let's help @Michelle4NM win this seat". Twitter.
  67. Gwen Graham. "Congratulations to my friend @Michelle4NM! Serving together, I saw how hard Michelle fought for New Mexico and know she will make a great governor. #TheFutureIsFemale #2018IsFemale". Twitter.
  68. MichelleLujanGrisham. ".@TeamHeinrich and @MayorKeller firing up the crowd! #nmpol #TeamMichelle". Twitter.
  69. Deb Haaland. "I'll always stand with @Michelle4NM ! Democratic women are taking the US house, and the Roundhouse in November! #AreYouReady #nmpol @NMDEMS @emilyslistDeb". Twitter.
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  72. Jay Inslee. "New Mexico is a top pickup opportunity and I am confident that @Michelle4NM is the right candidate to win and bring change to New Mexico". Twitter.
  73. Alyssa Milano. "I'm proud to support @Michelle4NM because not only has she fought for seniors, children, and working families in Congress, she's lead the fight to protect #DREAMers and ensure that veterans are receiving the care they deserve". Twitter.
  74. Chelsea Handler. "Governor: We're thrilled Michelle Lujan Grisham won her primary in New Mexico — she's now one step closer to being the nation's first-ever Democratic Latina governor! We've had so many firsts w/ women of cooor and the lgbtq community. Let's keep it going. @emilyslist". Twitter.
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Official Governor campaign websites
Official Lt. Governor campaign websites
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