2013 Philippine Senate election

On December 12, 2011, incumbent Senator Miriam Defensor Santiago was elected as a Judge of the International Criminal Court.[1] As a result, she was expected to vacate her Senate seat after the impeachment trial of Chief Justice Renato Corona, which ended on May 29, 2012, a year before the 2013 election.[2]

Once Santiago vacates her Senate seat, an additional senator would be elected in the upcoming election to serve the remaining three years of her unexpired term.[3] However, the likelihood of a thirteenth Senator being elected became low though since Santiago has already stated that she will not quit her seat.[4]

The Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino and PDP—Laban parties signed a coalition agreement on April 4, 2012 for the 2013 elections, forming the United Nationalist Alliance (UNA). The two parties were former partners in the United Opposition in the 2007 election, and Estrada and Binay were running mates during the 2010 presidential election. PDP—Laban president Aquilino "Koko" Pimentel III has stated that UNA's senatorial slate was more than twelve members and was in the process of trimming down; he had also expressed reservations on the inclusion of Juan Miguel Zubiri, of whom he had won an election protest after the 2007 election.[5]

On May 3, 2012, Zubiri took an oath as a member of PMP. Estrada and Binay were optimistic that Pimentel and Zubiri will be able to reconcile their differences prior to the start of the campaign.[6] Seven days later, UNA announced its first five senatorial candidates: incumbent senators Koko Pimentel and Gregorio Honasan, Cagayan Representative Jack Enrile, San Juan Representative JV Ejercito, and 2010 senatorial candidate Joey de Venecia.[7] On June 11, 2012, UNA formally included Zubiri in its line-up, together with Cebu Governor Gwendolyn Garcia and Zambales Representative Mitos Magsaysay.[8]

On June 28, 2012, Pimentel officially declined his spot in the UNA line-up, citing Zubiri's continued inclusion.[9] A week later, the commission accredited UNA as a political coalition, although it may face opposition from the use of the "UNA" acronym from the United Negros Alliance, a local political party from Negros Occidental.[10]

The UNA announced in August that former senators Richard J. Gordon and Ernesto Maceda were a part of their ticket, and that Senator Loren Legarda would be one of the last three candidates yet to be named in their ticket. UNA spokesperson JV Bautista also said that Pimentel had taken a leave of absence as PDP—Laban president, and that PDP—Laban would not issue Pimentel's certificate of nomination as the latter was running under the Liberal Party ticket.[11] However, Pimentel denied taking leave of absence from the PDP—Laban presidency.[12]

On the first day of filing of certificates of candidacies, UNA' senatorial nominees filed theirs at the Commission on Elections national offices at Intramuros.[13] Joey de Venecia withdrew from the election as he cited his business endeavors as reasons for his withdrawal; speculation was rife when Lorenzo Tañada III was one of the persons considered to fill in de Venecia's slot in the ticket, but Binay disclosed that Tañada was not in their choices "any more."[14] On October 4, UNA announced that Binay's daughter Nancy was their 12th nominee.[15]

After perennial non-attendance of the three common candidates shared with Team PNoy, UNA announced on February 21 that they dropped the three from the ticket. UNA secretary-general Toby Tiangco cited Team PNoy's campaign manager Franklin Drilon's refusal to allow the three to participate in their campaign.[16]

The Liberal Party was open on creating coalitions or alliances with other parties for the 2013 election, as long as the politicians have the same principles as them. Secretary of Budget and Management Florencio Abad said on April 7, 2012 that it was too early to make conclusions.[17] Two days later, the Liberals revealed 14 names of possible candidates on their ticket; these include candidates that were being considered on the UNA ticket. This meant there may be common names on both tickets.[18]

In April 2012, the Nacionalista Party was choosing between UNA and the LP tickets, with party secretary-general Alan Peter Cayetano saying that it was too early to decide on such matters. The verdict in the impeachment of Renato Corona would affect their decision.[19]

On May 17, 2012, Aquino revealed the party's four senatorial bets: Aurora Representative Sonny Angara, TESDA Chairman Joel Villanueva, and 2010 senatorial candidates Risa Hontiveros and Ruffy Biazon.[20] All four, however, were still considering their options to run for the Senate.[21] On June 28, 2012, party vice chairman Senator Franklin Drilon announced the candidacy of former Senator Ramon Magsaysay Jr.[22]

Senator Francis Escudero, who formerly campaigned for the Nationalist People's Coalition's presidential nomination in 2010 before resigning from the party and withdrawing from the race abruptly, said he believed that the NPC and the Liberals "are in coalition with one another."[23]

It was announced on July 5, 2012, that the ruling Liberal Party (LP), NPC and Nacionalista Party would most likely field a common senatorial ticket in the May 2013 elections.[24] A meeting between Aquino and Villar agreed to coalesce for the 2013 elections, and details, such as local candidates, will be dealt upon on further meetings.[25] Drilon cautioned though that the agreement was "not yet sealed" as the distribution of slots in the ticket will also be a factor. The Nacionalistas had already endorsed four candidates: Senators Antonio Trillanes and Alan Peter Cayetano, and Representatives Robert Ace Barbers and Cynthia Villar.[26]

However, NPC official and Senator Tito Sotto in September said that the three-party coalition might not be pursued as the determination of candidates at the local level remain as stumbling blocks in the formation of the coalition; NPC has more local officials than LP and NP. Meanwhile, Representative Mark Villar, a Nacionalista, said that they will stay put with their coalition agreement with LP, and that most issues have already been resolved.[27]

Bam Aquino, the president's cousin, and former Senator Jamby Madrigal, a defeated presidential candidate in 2010, were sworn in as Liberal Party members.[28] On October 1, President Aquino announced the administration coalition's nominees in a speech at Club Filipino. The ruling coalition, aside from the LP, NP and NPC, included the Laban ng Demokratikong Pilipino and Akbayan.[29]

The three candidates common with both coalitions, namely Francis Escudero, Grace Poe and Loren Legarda went with the ruling party's proclamation rally. The three candidates were given instructions by the party leaders not to appear in the sorties of the rival coalition.

Abaya also announced that Senator Franklin Drilon will serve as their campaign manager.[30] However, Loren Legarda, when asked with whom she will campaign with, said "I will campaign with the Filipino people."[31]

In June 2012, Bayan Muna Representative Teodoro Casiño announced his senatorial candidacy, and stated that his progressive Makabayang Koalisyon ng Mamamayan (Patriotic Coalition of the People) was "in touch" with the leaders of the United Nationalist Alliance to join their slate, and that joining the Liberal-led ticket would be difficult as he has significant political differences with President Aquino. He was also amenable on rejoining the Nacionalista Party ticket which included candidates from the Makabayan coalition in the 2010 election, or running on his own. UNA spokesperson Toby Tiangco said that he was unaware of any talks between UNA and Makabayan.[32] However, on September, Casiño announced that he not joining either ticket, saying that the coalition reached a consensus on the matter to prevent him from being beholden from other politicians.[33]

On November 8, Makabayan announced the adoption of five guest candidates: Loren Legarda, Francis Escudero, Koko Pimentel, Cynthia Villar and Grace Poe. The six candidates of Makabayan would pursue a progressive agenda.[34] On April 28, 2013, Makabayan further adopted the candidacies of Alan Peter Cayetano and Jamby Madrigal to add to their progressive senatorial slate.[35] A week later, Ramon Magsaysay Jr. received Makabayan's endorsement on May 5.[36]

The other parties' tickets which were allowed by the commission to run were Ang Kapatiran, the Bangon Pilipinas Party, the Democratic Party of the Philippines, the Social Justice Society and several independents. Independents Edward Hagedorn and Ramon Montaño, and Ang Kapatiran candidates were included in the first batch of approved candidacies, while the candidates of the Democratic Party, of the Social Justice Society, and independent Ricardo Penson were approved on the second batch.[37]

The Centrist Democratic Party of the Philippines, headed by Cagayan de Oro representative Rufus Rodriguez did not name candidates for the election; they instead endorsed Francis Escudero, Koko Pimentel and Bam Aquino, all candidates of Team PNoy.[38]

The People's Champ Movement, headed by Sarangani representative and Filipino boxing athlete Manny Pacquiao endorsed the entire United Nationalist Alliance ticket and endorsed the candidacies of Bangon Pilipinas Party senatorial candidate Eddie Villanueva and Team PNoy senatorial candidate Bam Aquino for the general election.[39]

Lakas–CMD, the former ruling party which did not named candidates under their banner, endorsed the candidacies of Nancy Binay and Dick Gordon of UNA, Eddie Villanueva of Bangon Pilipinas, and Cynthia Villar from Team PNoy, Leyte Representative Ferdinand Martin Romualdez announced on mid-April. This completed the list which earlier included JV Ejercito, Jack Enrile, Gregorio Honasan and Mitos Magsaysay from UNA, and Sonny Angara and Grace Poe from Team PNoy. Since there are only ten names, the party instructed local officials to endorse two from Tingting Cojuangco, Ernesto Maceda and Juan Miguel Zubiri of UNA, and Loren Legarda from Team PNoy, to complete their preferred 12-candidate slate.[40]

Even before the start of the campaign period, candidates had begun releasing infomercials without explicitly stating that voters should vote for them; instead these were called "advocacy ads". The United Nationalist Alliance (UNA) is the first among the coalitions to air TV advertisements for their entire senatorial slate when ABS-CBN and GMA aired one of their advertisements on January 7, 2012. UNA's TV commercial featured minimal exposure to the candidates they share with the Liberal Party (LP)-led coalition, only showing them on the last frame. UNA also started having provincial sorties the next day, on January 8.[65] President Aquino, in a provincial sortie in Mandaue, criticized UNA's early campaigning, saying that UNA "have to prove more than our own candidates."[66] UNA secretary-general Toby Tiangco answered that the Liberals have been airing political ads and holding provincial sorties way before UNA did, pointing out that Aquino's criticism was done at the LP's own provincial sortie. Tiangco also said the UNA candidates were faring better against the LP's.[67] On mid-January, LP officials started working on their coalition's TV advertisement, and were looking for ways to include Aquino in the ad.[68]

On January 21, Secretary of Transportation of Communications Joseph Emilio Abaya said in a press conference at Malacañang Palace that Aquino himself reminded candidates from their coalition about campaign guidelines on appearing with UNA rallies. Abaya said a falling out with Aquino may be a bad enough penalty for candidates who will join UNA's rallies.[69] Former president Joseph Estrada decried arrangement, saying that it is a virtual "ban" on common candidates. He further said that the ruling coalition is running scared, saying that "They know that the results of the 2013 elections would reflect their chances in 2016." Representative Ben Evardone has challenged the UNA to clarify if they are "fully supportive of President Aquino or has taken the role of the so-called united opposition that stands in the way of his daang matuwid (straight path) reform agenda". Tiangco left it to the three common candidates on joining UNA sorties despite the consequences that will be imposed by the LP.[70]

The commission apologized to Teodoro Casiño when the final draft of the ballot listed him as an "independent" when he is nominated by Makabayan. Chairman Sixto Brillantes expressed regret as the commission may not have the time to edit the ballot before they are printed, and noted that the counting of his votes would not be affected. Casiño said that the error is unacceptable, and that there should not be mistakes in the practice of electoral rights.[71]

The Liberal-led coalition renamed itself as "Team Pinoy", a play on words on "pinoy", an informal term used to denote the Filipino people (compare to "canuck"), and "PNoy", the administration's preferred reference to President Aquino, who has a "Noynoy" nickname. Angara said that "we decided to use ‘Pinoy’ to send the message that this campaign is for all Filipinos." The coalition released its first TV advertisement the next day, with the "Team PNoy" spelling. Unlike UNA's advertisement, Team PNoy's advertisement included the three common candidates.[72]

Team PNoy expects the three common candidates to go to their campaign launch Manila's Plaza Miranda, the site of the Plaza Miranda bombing during the 1971 election, at the first day of the campaign period.[73] Vice President Jejomar Binay personally picked Cebu City as the site of their campaign launch, to support suspended governor Gwendolyn Garcia.[74] Loren Legarda had said that she will be not attending either rally, as she will celebrate the 80th birthday of her father with him.[75]

Team PNoy Hagedorn SJS Makabayan Campaign launches in Metro Manila

Metro Manila Bangon Pilipinas UNA Campaign launches elsewhere in the Philippines

Team PNoy held their proclamation at Plaza Miranda in Quiapo, Manila. President Aquino presented all of the coalition's candidates, including the three common candidates with UNA.[76] Meanwhile, the UNA proclamation rally proceeded at Plaza Independencia in Cebu City despite light rains. Vice President Binay, Senate President Enrile and former president Estrada presented the nine candidates in Cebu, the province with the highest number of registered voters in the country.[77]

Meanwhile, Bangon Pilipinas candidate Eddie Villanueva opened his campaign at Malolos, Bulacan, while independent candidate Edward Hagedorn started his campaign with a press conference surrounded by Miss Earth candidates to emphasize his pro-environment agenda, which followed with a motorcade that ended at the Santo Niño Parish Church at Tondo, Manila. Makabayan candidate Teodoro Casiño had a fun run that ended at the Senate building at Pasay to kick off his campaign.[78] Samson Alcantara of the Social Justice Society opened his campaign outside his office at the corner of Taft Avenue and Padre Faura Street in Manila.[79]

UNA threatened to drop Francis Escudero from their senatorial slate after he did not send a representative to UNA's proclamation rally, unlike fellow guest candidates Loren Legarda and Grace Poe.[80] Escudero ignored the threat from UNA, maintaining that he would not be dictated by any party on the campaign, as he is running as an independent.[81] The three were subsequently removed from the UNA senatorial line up on February 21,[16] although President Estrada would still campaign for Poe in a personal capacity.[82]

On February 19, the commission investigated the campaign of Jamby Madrigal after she was charged with illegal campaigning for holding an online raffle for an iPad. Madrigal admitted the charge but said that her volunteers, who were mostly from the youth sector, were the ones behind the raffle and that she had no prior knowledge regarding it.[83]

The San Sebastian Cathedral in Bacolod featured a tarpaulin that urged the voters which candidates to, and not to, vote.

The following day, when Team PNoy campaigned in Bacolod, the Roman Catholic Diocese of Bacolod placed a tarpaulin in front of the San Sebastian Cathedral that urged people not to vote for candidates who supported the passage of the Responsible Parenthood and Reproductive Health Act of 2012, who they labeled as "Team Patay" (Team Death): Risa Hontiveros, Loren Legarda, Sonny Angara, Alan Peter Cayetano and Chiz Escudero of Team PNoy, Jack Enrile of UNA and Teddy Casiño of Makabayan, while encouraging to vote for "Team Buhay" (Team Life): Cynthia Villar, Sonny Trillanes and Koko Pimentel of Team PNoy, and Gringo Honasan, JV Ejercito and Mitos Magsaysay of UNA.[84] The commission ordered that the poster be taken down for being oversized. Bishop Vicente Navara said the diocese will just replace it with a poster that follows the commission's rules. The diocese cut the tarpaulin in half, but the commission would still press charges as it is still illegal.[85]

More than two weeks after her aborted campaign raffle, Jamby Madrigal went to the commission's main office in Intramuros to explain her side on the alleged illegal campaign violation for the aborted iPad raffle. Madrigal personally apologized for the raffle and asked the commission to examine the social circumstances of similar raffles occurring on social medial websites; Chairman Brillantes answered that the campaign activities on social networks are covered by the Omnibus Election Code.[86]

The erstwhile two-week standoff in Lahad Datu, Sabah between supporters of the Sultan of Sulu Jamalul Kiram III and the Malaysian authorities erupted in a gunfight that caused 14 deaths on March 1.[87] President Aquino was in a campaign sortie with his ticket on San Fernando, Pampanga when the gunfight erupted, and he had to delay his appearance on the stage as he was monitoring the situation.[88] In an interview at DZMM radio station, Secretary of the Interior and Local Government Mar Roxas reiterated the government's position that the Sulu Sultanate supporters to leave Sabah, noting that the followers of Kiram were "hard-headed".[89]

Team PNoy candidates defended the government's actions, faulting that the Kirams for what has transpired, and said that they should have followed the president and have withdrawn from Sabah to prevent bloodshed. Ramon Magsaysay Jr. said that "If there is a firefight that is Mr. Kiram's problem. They should've withdrawn," while Koko Pimentel said that while it is the government's duty "is to protest the abuse of its nationals, But a leader [Aquino] should also be able to direct them to do something especially if it's for their own good." Campaign manager Franklin Drilon later stated that Team PNoy would take a common stand on the conflict, and will support the president.[90]

The candidates of UNA, on the other hand, criticized the government's actions. In a political rally at Cagayan de Oro, Richard Gordon labeled the response as "severely woeful, anti-Filipino, and subservient to Malaysia." Campaign manager Toby Tiangco decried Roxas' "hard-headed" remarks as "arrogant." Gregorio Honasan said "they were being confronted with possible case, possible charges once they get back home. So, it’s mixed signals. I’m sure that was not what the President meant."[91]

Meanwhile, the Supreme Court issued a temporary restraining order to prevent the commission from enforcing its order in taking down the oversized poster in the Bacolod cathedral.[92] In a surprise move, the Supreme Court stopped the implementation of the controversial Reproductive Health Law by issuing a status quo ante order for 120 days. The court will further determine the constitutionality of the law. The Catholic Church and several pro-life support groups praised the decision as a "temporary victory". Several members of the clergy have urged to backing of anti-RH legislators in the midterm polls.[93]

Senator Manny Villar and UNA senatorial candidate JV Ejercito (not pictured) had offshore accounts listed in the British Virgin Islands based on the report by the ICIJ and the PCIJ.

The International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) through its Philippine co-partnered media group, the Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism (PCIJ) released details of offshore accounts listed under Senator Manny Villar and UNA senatorial candidate JV Ejercito based in the British Virgin Islands, a known tax haven. Villar later stated, that he owned the BVI-listed, Awesome Dragon Holdings Limited which was incorporated in 2007. Villar, the husband of Team PNoy senatorial candidate Cynthia Villar further pointed out that, "a ready corporate vehicle for any strategic multinational business opportunity that may become available.” He denied however that the company was used as a business front to avoid paying proper taxation as that company had an authorized capital of $1 and he listed this in his annual Statement of Assets, Liabilities and Net worth (SALN). Ejercito, meanwhile slammed the ICIJ report linking him to a BVI-listed company, Ice Bell Properties Limited, incorporated in 1999. Ejercito question the release of the report but did not confirm or deny the said BVI-listed company. He stated in a written reply, "highly suspicious considering the ongoing electoral campaign of which I am one of the leading contenders among the UNA senatorial candidates. I have held high respect to (sic) the PCIJ as an institution. I hope that you will not allow yourself to fall in (sic) the manipulative efforts of desperate people in (sic) dirty politics.”[94]

In the final weeks of the month, advocates and dissenters of the reproductive health law endorsed two sets of candidates for the Senate. The White Vote movement led by El Shaddai leader Mike Velarde and 40 Catholic lay organizations endorsed six UNA senatorial candidates Richard Gordon, Nancy Binay, Juan Miguel Zubiri, Gregorio Honasan, Mitos Magsaysay and JV Ejercito and three Team PNoy senatorial candidates, Aquilino Pimentel III, Antonio Trillanes IV and Cynthia Villar.[95] The Purple Vote movement composed of advocates for the reproductive health law endorsed seven Team PNoy senatorial candidates: Sonny Angara, Bam Aquino, Alan Peter Cayetano, Chiz Escudero, Risa Hontiveros, Loren Legarda, and Grace Poe. Former Health Secretary and lead convener of the Purple Vote movement Esperanza Cabral stated that although the main basis of their endorsement was on the passage of the RH law, the endorsed candidates consistently support other progressive measures including the sin tax reform law and the freedom of information bill and are known for their integrity. Noticeable in the endorsement is the non-appearance of UNA senatorial candidate Jack Enrile and Makabayan senatorial candidate Teodoro Casiño both of whom were blacklisted under the Team Patay poster by the Bacolod cathedral.[96]

Security during the electoral campaign was heightened on both sides after members of the communist rebels of the New People’s Army ambushed the convoy of Gingoog Mayor Ruthie Guingona, wife of former Vice President Teofisto Guingona, Jr., leaving the convoy driver and his brother dead.[97] National condemnation of the ambush came from both sides of the political spectrum. Deputy Presidential Spokesperson Abigail Valte,[98] Team PNoy campaign manager Franklin Drilon,[97] and UNA campaign manager Toby Tiangco condemned the attack on Guingona.[99]

Loren Legarda was accused by self-styled public interest advocate Louis Biraogo of allegedly failing to declare her possession of a condominium unit at Park Avenue, New York City for four years until 2011. In addition, Biraogo accused the senator of trying to hide her alleged properties at Forbes Park, Makati. Biraogo detailed that Legarda paid US$700,000 (or 36 million pesos in 2006 exchange rates) for the Park Avenue property, and that she did not include the property as real property assets in her statements of assets, liabilities and net worth (SALN) from 2006 to 2010.[100] The next day, Legarda called a press conference to deny that she failed to declare the Park Avenue property, presenting a document signed by her lawyers saying that the property has been included in the SALN since 2007. Legarda added that she purchased the property while she was married to former Batangas governor Antonio Leviste. Legarda spent the greater part of press conference accusing of a certain "Willie F.", sending journalists "column feeds" related to the Park Avenue property. When pressed by journalists on who is Willie F.'s client, Legarda only hinted that the client was a male reelectionist senator, nicknamed "Boy Kuryente" (literally "bum steer") who was behind the rumors of President Aquino's mental health during the 2010 presidential campaign.[101] President Aquino has spoken to Legarda and Francis Escudero, while Mar Roxas has spoken to Alan Peter Cayetano, allegedly the one behind the campaign against Legarda, to set aside their differences.[102]

Several religious groups have released their endorsements in the Senate election. These religious groups command a voting bloc, and is crucial in close races. The Iglesia ni Cristo reportedly endorsed seven Team PNoy candidates and five from UNA, while the Kingdom of Jesus Christ endorsed six Team PNoy candidates, five from UNA and independent candidate Edward Hagedorn. The Iglesia ni Cristo reportedly commands five to eight million voters nationwide.[103]

Television networks, election watchdogs, and other bodies may provide their own tallies from their copies of election returns. These are unofficial.

These are from the tabulated election returns; in theory, the results here and the official one above, which is tabulated from the certificates of canvass, should be identical, once all of the votes are accounted for.

The results from the COMELEC's "Transparency" server and the tally done by the Parish Pastoral Council for Responsible Voting are currently identical.

Poe finishing first in the election was attributed by University of the Philippines Diliman (UP Diliman) assistant political science professor Nicole Curato to a very disciplined campaign via a clear association with her father Fernando Poe Jr. Curato added that while she was a Team PNoy candidate, some quarters in the United Nationalist Alliance openly supported Poe in the campaign, contributing to her victory.[148]

Poe's #1 finish would catapult her to higher political ambitions in the 2016. UP Diliman political analyst Prospero de Vera expects Poe to be a candidate in the 2016 presidential or vice presidential election. If Poe joins the Liberal Party, de Vera said that President Aquino would expect a continuation of his "Daang Matuwid" (straight path) program, while noting out that he does not see a Mar Roxas-Poe tandem. De Vera instead sees a continued partnership of the Liberals with the Nacionalistas, with Poe and Alan Peter Cayetano as prospective running mates.[149]

Her final total of more than 20 million votes gives her the largest mandate to any Filipino in history, beating the record previously held by Bong Revilla in the 2010 Senate election. Poe eventually ran in the 2016 presidential election, losing to Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte, and finishing behind Roxas.

In his column in the Philippine Daily Inquirer, Amando Doronila noted that while the election can be seen as a victory for President Aquino, it should not be seen as a rejection of the opposition, as UNA managed to win three Senate seats, with the voters rebuffing Aquino's plea for a sweep of the election. Doronila added that if Poe and Legarda ran on the UNA ticket, they could've won as well, and that the Team PNoy victory was a "hollow victory" as the Liberal Party needed the help of the Nacionalista Party and the Nationalist People's Coalition, with the Liberals only controlling a small nucleus.[150]

Archbishop-emeritus Oscar V. Cruz, on the "Catholic vote" said that Catholics "were left still free to vote whom they wanted". This comes at the heels of seven out of twelve candidates endorsed by the White Vote movement by Mike Velarde were winning, five of the six "Team Buhay" ("team life") candidates winning, and four of seven "Team Patay" ("team death") candidates winning. Bishops Arturo Bastes, Honesto Ongtioco, Martin Jumaod, and Mario Peralta, blamed the lack of unity amongst Catholic voters on "money politics", such as vote-buying, while Cagayan de Oro archbishop Antonio Ledesma blamed the Commission on Elections such as faulty electoral rolls.[151]

Ratios of the results per coalition in the election for every region and absentee voters.

After all 12 senators were proclaimed, Ateneo de Manila University mathematics professor Lex Muga pointed out that, in any given time, the National Canvass Report had 60% of the votes go to Team PNoy, 30% to UNA, and 10% to other parties. Muga said there should have been variation amongst certificates of canvass. UNA campaign manager Toby Tiangco said that the percentages could not be the same for every place in the Philippines; meanwhile, Team PNoy spokesperson Miro Quimbo said that it "is a result of a great message campaign led by the President himself and an aggressive ground war pursued by local parties allied with the President." Chairman Brillantes, for his part, while originally dismissing it as mere "trending", said that he would order the commission's information technology personnel on Muga's findings.[152]

Michael Purugganan, Dean of Science in New York University explained that "Nothing fishy is going on. It is just poor math education," adding that "each canvass represents a very large sample from the total votes. And therefore each canvass would give a result that would be very, very close to the 60-30-10 national average." Purugganan cited the law of large numbers "which says that the larger your sample size is for an event, the closer your result from that sample will reflect the entire population." Purugganan pointed out that once a person goes down to precinct level, the vote totals will show more differences from the national total.[153] The Rappler website has published a series of article refuting the 60–30–10 theory: one showed a regional tally,[154] and tallies from Metro Manila and eight cities which showed the ratios start to deviate from the national average once specific places are tallied.[155]