2024 Iowa Democratic presidential caucuses

2024 Iowa Democratic presidential caucuses
	January 15, 2024
46 delegates (40 pledged and 6 unpledged) to the Democratic National Convention

The 2024 Iowa Democratic presidential caucuses are scheduled to be held on January 15, 2024,[1] as part of the Democratic Party primaries for the 2024 presidential election. 46 delegates to the Democratic National Convention will be allocated to presidential candidates.[2]

The scheduled date was in dispute, as Iowa traditionally is the first state that holds its race first in the presidential primary and caucuses season, but the Democratic National Committee instead wanted South Carolina to hold its race first on February 3.[3] A compromise was eventually reached in which Iowa could still hold its race on January 15 if the results are not released until Super Tuesday, March 5.[4]

Incumbent President Joe Biden announced on April 25, 2023, his bid for a second term. He faces a primary challenge from author, progressive activist, and 2020 presidential candidate Marianne Williamson.[5][6]

Scheduling controversy

On February 4, 2023, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) approved a new 2024 primary calendar, moving South Carolina to hold its race first on February 3. Iowa, which traditionally goes first, would then be held later in the primary season. This vote was preceded by a December 2022 vote of the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee, held after a letter from President Biden requesting the change was released.[7] DNC members who supported this new plan say this will give a better representation of Democratic voters' preference during the early months of the campaign. Members of the Iowa Democratic Party and the New Hampshire Democratic Party opposed the move since they would no longer be the first two states to hold their races, respectively.[8][9]

Under normal circumstances, the Iowa caucuses operate very differently from primary elections used in most other U.S. states. Instead of going to polling places to cast ballots, Iowans instead gather in-person at local caucus meetings to discuss and vote on the candidates, which are typically held at selected schools, churches, public libraries, or even individuals' houses. In response to the chaotic 2020 Iowa caucuses and the DNC's new rules and calendar, the Iowa Democratic Party initially planned to allow voting-by-mail for the first time, hoping to gain a better spot on the primary calendar through closely abiding by the new rules and enlarging their voter base. They speculate that in doing so they could take the spot of another planned early state that fails to meet the date expected by the DNC. However in early June 2023, the Republican-controlled state legislature and Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds signed a new bill into law requiring the caucuses to be held in person in order to force Iowa Democrats not to follow the DNC plan and to secure Iowa's first-in-the-nation status.[10] Iowa Democrats want to hold the caucus in person, select delegates and complete party business, fulfilling the law like that, while they would still organize the presidential preference vote by mail-in cards and officially declare the results during the later timeframe sanctioned by the DNC.[11]

On October 6, the DNC and the Iowa Democratic Party reached a compromise in which the caucuses could still be held first in January, but they must wait until Super Tuesday, March 5, to announce the results.[4]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Joe Biden	Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	Marianne Williamson	Other	Undecided
Emerson College	September 7–9, 2023	273 (A)	± 5.9%	50%	9%	7%	34%[lower-alpha 2]	–
Victory Insights	April 8, 2021	600 (V)	–	63%	–	–	11%[lower-alpha 3]	26%

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Pete Buttigieg	Kamala Harris	John Kerry	Amy Klobuchar	Michelle Obama	Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	Bernie Sanders	Elizabeth Warren	Other	Undecided
Victory Insights	April 8, 2021	600 (V)	–	15%	28%	7%	9%	12%	2%	2%	3%	5%	16%

Results

The results of the caucus are expected to be released on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.[12]

Notes

Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
"Someone else/Undecided" with 34%
"Someone else" with 11%

References

Pfannentiel, Brianne (September 18, 2023). "Iowa Democrats vote to approve Jan. 15 in-person caucus date. Mail-in dates are unresolved". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved September 21, 2023.
"Iowa Democratic Delegation 2024". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved April 29, 2023.
"Biden could lose first two '24 contests to RFK Jr". Axios. June 15, 2023. Retrieved June 15, 2023.
"DNC's new calendar, will release caucus results on Super Tuesday". Iowa Public Radio. October 6, 2023. Retrieved October 19, 2023.
"Joe Biden announces he is running for president again, setting up possible Trump rematch". ABC News. Retrieved May 5, 2023.
Weissert, Will (March 4, 2023). "Marianne Williamson begins longshot 2024 challenge to Biden". San Diego Union-Tribune. Retrieved September 21, 2023.
"Joseph R. Biden Jr., Letter" (PDF). The Democrats. December 1, 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on February 4, 2023. Retrieved February 5, 2023.
Shepherd, Brittany (February 4, 2023). "Democrats approve new primary calendar for 2024". ABC News. Archived from the original on February 5, 2023. Retrieved February 5, 2023.
Chambers, Francesca (February 4, 2023). "Democrats approve 2024 primary calendar that demotes Iowa, boosts South Carolina". USA Today. Archived from the original on February 5, 2023. Retrieved February 5, 2023.
"When are the Iowa caucuses? Great question". Politico. June 10, 2023. Retrieved June 10, 2023.
"Iowa Democrats approve 2024 caucus delegation plan". June 3, 2023. Retrieved August 22, 2023.
Mueller, Julia (October 6, 2023). "Iowa Democrats releasing caucus results on Super Tuesday". The Hill. Retrieved October 6, 2023.

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[key-12] Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

[13] "Someone else/Undecided" with 34%

[14] "Someone else" with 11%

[1] Pfannentiel, Brianne (September 18, 2023). "Iowa Democrats vote to approve Jan. 15 in-person caucus date. Mail-in dates are unresolved". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved September 21, 2023.

[2] "Iowa Democratic Delegation 2024". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved April 29, 2023.

[axios20230615-3] "Biden could lose first two '24 contests to RFK Jr". Axios. June 15, 2023. Retrieved June 15, 2023.

[ipr-4] "DNC's new calendar, will release caucus results on Super Tuesday". Iowa Public Radio. October 6, 2023. Retrieved October 19, 2023.

[5] "Joe Biden announces he is running for president again, setting up possible Trump rematch". ABC News. Retrieved May 5, 2023.

[6] Weissert, Will (March 4, 2023). "Marianne Williamson begins longshot 2024 challenge to Biden". San Diego Union-Tribune. Retrieved September 21, 2023.

[7] "Joseph R. Biden Jr., Letter" (PDF). The Democrats. December 1, 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on February 4, 2023. Retrieved February 5, 2023.

[8] Shepherd, Brittany (February 4, 2023). "Democrats approve new primary calendar for 2024". ABC News. Archived from the original on February 5, 2023. Retrieved February 5, 2023.

[9] Chambers, Francesca (February 4, 2023). "Democrats approve 2024 primary calendar that demotes Iowa, boosts South Carolina". USA Today. Archived from the original on February 5, 2023. Retrieved February 5, 2023.

[10] "When are the Iowa caucuses? Great question". Politico. June 10, 2023. Retrieved June 10, 2023.

[11] "Iowa Democrats approve 2024 caucus delegation plan". June 3, 2023. Retrieved August 22, 2023.

[15] Mueller, Julia (October 6, 2023). "Iowa Democrats releasing caucus results on Super Tuesday". The Hill. Retrieved October 6, 2023.