2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses

2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses
January 15, 2024
40 Republican National Convention delegates
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The 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses will be held on January 15, 2024,[1] as part of the Republican Party primaries for the 2024 presidential election. 40 delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention will be allocated on a proportional basis.[2] As in past primary cycles, the Iowa caucus will be the first-in-the-nation Republican presidential primary caucus.

Background and electorate

History of the Iowa caucus

Beginning in 1972, the Iowa caucuses have been characterized as the first major electoral test for both Democratic and Republican presidential contenders.[3] Despite its strategic importance, between 1976 and 2016, only three out of eight winners of the Iowa caucuses went on to receive the Republican presidential nomination.[4]

Republican electorate

Matthew Dallek, a professor of political history at George Washington University, has argued that the Iowa Republican caucuses effectively serve as "referendums on who is the most socially conservative candidate" in the Republican field.[4]

Commentators have noted the decisive role of Evangelical Christian caucusgoers in past contests. The victory of social conservatives Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, and Ted Cruz in the 2008, 2012, and 2016 Iowa caucuses, respectively, was credited to their strong support among evangelical voters.[5][6][7][8]

In 2016, it was noted by The Des Moines Register that almost half of likely Republican caucusgoers self-identify as evangelical or born-again Christians.[9] In the 2016 Iowa Republican caucus, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas defeated eventual nominee Donald Trump by a 27.6% to 24.3% margin in what was considered an upset victory.

Procedure

Delegates are proportionally allocated to candidates based on the total statewide vote. Unlike most states, there is no mininimum threshold for a candidate to be eligible for delegates.

Campaign developments

In February 2023, the Trump campaign announced its Iowa campaign staff, with state representative Bobby Kaufmann and consultant Eric Branstad, the son of former Governor Terry Branstad, serving as senior advisors.[10] In March 2023, Trump's campaign announced that it would hold an "America First Education Policy" event in Davenport on March 13, marking his first official campaign appearance in the state.[11] On March 13, 2023, Trump made his first appearance in the state since announcing his candidacy, in which he spoke before a crowd in Davenport.[12]

Governor of Florida Ron DeSantis, who has declared his candidacy,[13] held a pair of events in the state on March 10, and was accompanied by Governor Kim Reynolds.[14] However, Reynolds has remained neutral between Trump and DeSantis, which has led Trump to post on Truth Social accusing her of stealing the race from him and that like DeSantis, she wouldn't have been elected without Trump's help.[15]

Endorsements
Main article: Endorsements in the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
Ron DeSantis
State senators
State representatives
Nikki Haley
State senators
State representatives
Vivek Ramaswamy
State executive officials
State senators
Donald Trump
Former Executive Branch officials
U.S. Representatives
State senators
State representatives
Notable individuals
Declined to endorse
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Governors

Maps

Endorsements by incumbent Republicans in the Iowa Senate.
  Endorsed Ron DeSantis (13)
  Endorsed Donald Trump (6)
  Endorsed Nikki Haley (1)
  Endorsed Vivek Ramaswamy (1)
  No endorsement (13)
Endorsements by incumbent Republicans in the Iowa House of Representatives.
  Endorsed Ron DeSantis (23)
  Endorsed Donald Trump (13)
  Endorsed Nikki Haley (1)
  No endorsement (27)

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Doug
Burgum		 Chris
Christie		 Ron
DeSantis		 Larry
Elder		 Nikki
Haley		 Asa
Hutchinson		 Mike
Pence		 Vivek
Ramaswamy		 Tim
Scott		 Donald
Trump		 Other Undecided
Iowa State University/Civiqs Oct 6–10, 2023 425 (LV) ± 6.1% 0% 2% 17% 0% 11% 0% 1% 5% 4% 55% 2%[lower-alpha 2] 1%
CBS News/YouGov Sep 15–24, 2023 458 (LV) ± 6.1% 0% 1% 21% 0% 8% 1% 6% 5% 6% 51% 0%[lower-alpha 3] –
Public Opinion Strategies[upper-alpha 1] Sep 19–21, 2023 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 1% 2% 21% – 9% 0% 2% 5% 6% 45% – 9%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates[upper-alpha 2] Sep 17–19, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 1% 5% 15% – 13% <1% 2% 5% 5% 45% <1%[lower-alpha 4] 7%
Trafalgar Group (R) Sep 14–18, 2023 1,079 (LV) ± 2.9% 4% 2% 16% 0% 8% 0% 4% 7% 7% 49% 1%[lower-alpha 5] 2%
Fox Business Sep 14–18, 2023 813 (LV) ± 3% 2% 3% 15% <0.5% 11% <0.5% 3% 7% 7% 46% 3%[lower-alpha 6] 2%
Emerson College Sep 7–9, 2023 357 (V) ± 5.1% 3% – 14% – 7% – 3% 7% 8% 49% 6% –
Civiqs Sep 2–7, 2023 434 (LV) ± 5.8% 2% 3% 14% – 10% 0% 1% 9% 6% 51% 1%[lower-alpha 7] –
Public Opinion Strategies Sep 5–6, 2023 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 1% 3% 22% – 6% 1% 2% 6% 5% 45% – –
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates Aug 25–28, 2023 500 (LV) – 2% 3% 18% <1% 10% 1% 2% 7% 7% 44% <2%[lower-alpha 8] 5%
Public Opinion Strategies Aug 24, 2023 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 1% 1% 21% – 11% 1% 2% 7% 7% 41% – –
Public Opinion Strategies Aug 19–21, 2023 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 3% 3% 14% – 3% <1% 2% 10% 3% 42% – –
HarrisX[upper-alpha 3] Aug 17–21, 2023 1,120 (LV) –[lower-alpha 9] 2% 3% 11% 0% 4% 0% 3% 9% 8% 45% 3%[lower-alpha 10] 12%
–[lower-alpha 11] 2% 4% 21% 1% 6% 1% 8% 18% 15% – 4%[lower-alpha 12] 19%
Echelon Insights[upper-alpha 4] Aug 15–17, 2023 800 (LV) ± 4.2% 2% 4% 17% – 2% <1% 3% 8% 3% 33% 3%[lower-alpha 13] 14%
Selzer & Co.[upper-alpha 5] Aug 13–17, 2023 406 (LV) ± 4.9% 2% 5% 19% – 6% – 6% 4% 9% 42% 1%[lower-alpha 14] 5%
The Trafalgar Group (R) Aug 14–16, 2023 1,126 (LV) ± 2.9% 3% 4% 16% 1% 5% 1% 4% 6% 13% 42% 3%[lower-alpha 15] 3%
New York Times/Siena College Jul 28 – Aug 1, 2023 432 (LV) ± 5.9% 1% <1% 20% <1% 4% <1% 3% 5% 9% 44% <2%[lower-alpha 16] 12%
– – 39% – – – – – – 55% – 4%
Manhattan Institute Jul 2023 625 (LV) – 3% 4% 17% 0% 5% 1% 4% 6% 10% 42% 1%[lower-alpha 17] 7%
National Research[upper-alpha 6] Jul 23–24, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 3% 4% 15% – 3% 0% 2% 5% 9% 42% – 13%
Fox Business Jul 15–19, 2023 806 (LV) ± 3.5% 3% 3% 16% <1% 5% 1% 4% 6% 11% 46% 1%[lower-alpha 18] 4%
co/efficient[upper-alpha 7] Jul 15–17, 2023 2,238 (LV) ± 2.6% – 3% 16% – 3% – 3% 5% 10% 46% – 10%
National Research[upper-alpha 6] Jul 5–6, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% – 3% 21% – 2% 1% 3% 3% 7% 44% – 14%
McLaughlin & Associates[upper-alpha 7] Jun 10–12, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% – – 19% – – – 6% – 9% 51% – 15%
– – 33% – – – – – – 60% – 7%
National Research[upper-alpha 6] Jun 5–7, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% – 2% 24% – 4% 0% 4% 1% 5% 39% – 21%
Victory Insights Jun 3–6, 2023 450 (LV) ± 4.9% – 3% 21% – 5% – 5% 2% 6% 44% 3%[lower-alpha 19] 12%
– – 32% – – – – – – 49% – 19%
WPA Intelligence[upper-alpha 8] May 30 – Jun 1, 2023 655 (RV) – – – 29% – 6% <1% 4% 4% 7% 39% – 11%
– – 43% – – – – – – 45% – 12%
McLaughlin & Associates May 23–25, 2023 400 (LV) – 0% 1% 24% 1% 4% 1% 5% 2% 7% 50% 3%[lower-alpha 20] 4%
– – 36% – – – – – – 54% – 11%
Emerson College May 19–22, 2023 600 (LV) ± 3.9% 0% – 20% – 5% 1% 5% 2% 3% 62% 2%[lower-alpha 21] –
National Research[upper-alpha 6] May 9–11, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% – – 26% – 6% 1% 4% 3% 1% 44% – 11%
– – 33% – – – – – – 45% – 22%
McLaughlin & Associates[upper-alpha 7] Apr 27–30, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% – 1% 20% 1% 5% 0% 7% 2% 1% 54% 5%[lower-alpha 22] 5%
– – 22% – – – – – – 57% – –
Victory Insights Apr 10–13, 2023 400 (LV) ± 4.8% – – 24% – 14% 4% – 3% – 54% 1%[lower-alpha 23] –
– – 59% – 24% 5% – 8% – – 4%[lower-alpha 24] –
– – 41% – – – – – – 59% – –
Cygnal Apr 3–4, 2023 600 (LV) ± 3.9% – – 30% – 5% 1% 2% 2% 1% 37% 3%[lower-alpha 25] 19%
J.L. Partners Mar 25 – Apr 4, 2023 628 (LV) ± 3.9% – – 26% – 5% – 3% 1% – 41% 10%[lower-alpha 26] 14%
– – 39% – – – – – – 47% – 15%
WPA Intelligence[upper-alpha 9] Nov 11–13, 2022 508 (LV) ± 4.4% – – 48% – – – – – – 37% – 16%
WPA Intelligence[upper-alpha 9] Aug 7–10, 2022 508 (LV) ± 4.4% – – 37% – – – – – – 52% – 12%
Neighborhood Research and Media[upper-alpha 10] Jun 22 – Jul 1, 2022 546 (LV) ± 4.2% – – 17% – 2% – 2% – – 38% 4%[lower-alpha 27] –
Victory Insights Mar 5–8, 2021 630 (RV) – – – 4% – 6% – 8% – – 61% 13%[lower-alpha 28] –
– – 20% – 10% – 19% – – – 33%[lower-alpha 29] –

See also
Wikimedia Commons has media related to Iowa Republican caucuses, 2024.

Notes
  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Ryan Binkley with 2%; Will Hurd & Perry Johnson with 0%
  3. Will Hurd with 0%
  4. Perry Johnson & Will Hurd with <1%
  5. Perry Johnson with 1%; Ryan Binkley with and Will Hurd with 0%
  6. Ryan Binkley, Perry Johnson & "Other" with 1%; Asa Hutchinson & "None of the above" with <0.5%
  7. Ryan Binkley with 1% and Will Hurd with 0%
  8. Perry Johnson and Will Hurd with <1%; Francis Suarez with 0%
  9. Standard VI response
  10. "Someone else" with 2%; Ryan Binkley with 1%; Will Hurd, Perry Johnson, Corey Stapleton and Francis Suarez with 0%
  11. If Trump did not run in the caucuses
  12. "Someone else" with 3%; Ryan Binkley with 1%; Will Hurd, Perry Johnson, Corey Stapleton and Francis Suarez with 0%
  13. "Someone else" with 2%; Will Hurd with 1%; Ryan Binkley & Francis Suarez with <1%
  14. Will Hurd with 1%
  15. Ryan Binkley and Perry Johnson with 1%; Will Hurd and Francis Suarez with 0%
  16. "Someone else" with <1%; Will Hurd with <1%; Francis Suarez with 0%
  17. "Someone else" with 1%; Francis Suarez with 0%
  18. Franciz Suarez at 1%; Will Hurd at less than 1%
  19. Someone else with 3%
  20. Mitt Romney with 3%; Rick Perry, Chris Sununu, Perry Johnson, Francis Suarez with 0%
  21. Someone else with 2%
  22. Mitt Romney with 4%, Liz Cheney with 1%, Chris Sununu, John Bolton and Glenn Youngkin with 0%
  23. Perry Johnson with 1%
  24. Perry Johnson with 4%
  25. Kristi Noem with 2%; Mike Pompeo with 1%
  26. Mike Pompeo with 3%; Glenn Youngkin with 1%; "Someone else" with 6%
  27. Kim Reynolds, Kristi Noem, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio with 1%
  28. Mitt Romney with 5%; Ted Cruz with 4%; Kristi Noem and Mike Pompeo with 2%
  29. Ted Cruz with 16%; Mitt Romney with 5%; Kristi Noem and Mike Pompeo with 6%
Partisan clients
  1. Poll sponsored by Citizens Awareness Project
  2. Poll sponsored by Make America Great Again Inc. super PAC, which supports Trump
  3. Poll sponsored by American Free Enterprise Chamber of Commerce
  4. Poll commissioned by Republican Main Street Partnership
  5. Poll sponsored by NBC News
  6. Poll sponsored by American Greatness, which supports Trump
  7. Poll sponsored by Trump campaign
  8. Poll sponsored by Never Back Down PAC, which supports DeSantis.
  9. Poll sponsored by Club for Growth
  10. Poll sponsored by Courageous Conservatives PAC

References
  1. Cohen, Ethan (July 8, 2023). "Iowa Republicans will hold 2024 caucuses on January 15". CNN. Retrieved July 8, 2023.
  2. "Iowa Republican Presidential Nominating Process". thegreenpapers.com. March 5, 2023. Retrieved February 6, 2023.
  3. Holland, Brynn (November 25, 2019). "How the Iowa Caucus Has Shaped the US Presidential Race". History.com. Retrieved March 3, 2023.
  4. Norwood, Candice (February 6, 2020). "Do Iowa caucus winners become president? History shows mixed results". PBS NewsHour. Retrieved March 3, 2023.
  5. "GOP race divides evangelical voters in Iowa". PBS NewsHour. February 1, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2023.
  6. "Trump and Iowa evangelicals: A bond that is hard to break". Associated Press. April 12, 2023. Retrieved April 19, 2023. Beyond Cruz, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum won the 2012 caucuses as a crusading abortion opponent. In 2008, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, an ordained Baptist minister, posted a surprise victory by cobbling together a Christian coalition of pastors and religious home-school advocates.
  7. Cohn, Nate (May 5, 2015). "Mike Huckabee and the Continuing Influence of Evangelicals". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved April 19, 2023. Most important, evangelicals also represent nearly 60 percent of Iowa caucus goers, which allowed cultural conservatives like Rick Santorum (in 2012) and Mr. Huckabee (in 2008) to carry the state.
  8. Zitner, Aaron. "Ted Cruz's Iowa Win Powered by Evangelicals, Conservatives". WSJ. Retrieved May 15, 2023.
  9. Jacobs, Jennifer (February 1, 2016). "Cruz wins GOP caucuses, beating Trump". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved March 3, 2023.
  10. "Former President Donald Trump announces Iowa campaign staff". KCCI. February 20, 2023. Retrieved March 3, 2023.
  11. Vakil, Caroline (March 2, 2023). "Trump heading to Iowa this month to talk education". The Hill. Retrieved March 3, 2023.
  12. Murray, Isabella (March 13, 2023). "Trump campaigns in same Iowa city DeSantis visited Friday". ABC News. Retrieved March 13, 2023.
  13. "Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis launches 2024 presidential campaign to challenge Trump". AP News. May 24, 2023. Retrieved May 28, 2023.
  14. Bender, Michael C. (March 10, 2023). "A Glimpse of DeSantis in Iowa: Awkward, but Still Winning the Crowd". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved March 14, 2023.
  15. Garrity, Kelly (July 10, 2023). "Trump swings at Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds". Politico.
  16. Isenstadt, Alex (May 12, 2023). "DeSantis rolls out a major slate of Iowa endorsements". Politico. Retrieved May 12, 2023.
  17. Meyer, Kellie (May 12, 2023). "Trump, Desantis to Headline Competing Iowa Events". NewsNation. Retrieved July 15, 2023.
  18. Korecki, Natasha; Gomez, Henry J. (June 2, 2023). "Porn Stars vs. Parenthood: Ron DeSantis Plays the Family Card Against Trump". NBC News. Retrieved June 3, 2023.
  19. Allison, Natalie (June 5, 2023). "Ramaswamy: 'I don't have a particular personal beef with DeSantis at all'". Politico.
  20. Gancarski, A.G. (July 15, 2023). "Iowa Senator says he endorsed Ron DeSantis because Donald Trump insulted his Governor". Florida Politics.
  21. Alviz-Gransee, Noelle; Block, Francesca (June 11, 2023). "Nikki Haley's Iowa leadership team boasts Republican strategists and local politicians". Des Moines Register.
  22. https://iowatorch.com/2023/04/21/harris-how-to-win-in-iowa/
  23. Vakil, Caroline (August 21, 2023). "Iowa Treasurer Endorses Ramaswamy in GOP Primary". The Hill.
  24. Murray, Isabella. "Trump to campaign in same Iowa city DeSantis visited Friday". ABC News. Retrieved March 15, 2023.
  25. "President Trump Announces Support from Over 150 Elected and Grassroots Leaders Across All 99 Counties in Iowa". www.donaldjtrump.com.
  26. King, Ryan (March 13, 2023). "Trump campaign rolls out Iowa endorsements ahead of visit to early 2024 battleground". Washington Examiner. Retrieved March 15, 2023.
  27. Jacobs, Jennifer (March 11, 2023). "DeSantis Eyes Hiring Iowa Staff in Step Toward Possible 2024 Bid". Bloomberg. Retrieved March 15, 2023.
  28. McCullough, Caleb (February 20, 2023). "Former President Donald Trump names Iowa campaign leaders". Sioux City Journal. Retrieved March 15, 2023.
  29. Isenstadt, Alex (January 12, 2023). "Trump prepares to open next phase of 2024 campaign in South Carolina". Politico. Retrieved March 15, 2023.
  30. Goldmacher, Shane; Swan, Jonathan; Haberman, Maggie (July 8, 2023). "Trump and DeSantis Are Battling for Iowa Voters. And for Its Governor, Too" – via NYTimes.com.
  31. Ferris, Sarah; Mutnick, Ally; Everett, Burgess (April 18, 2023). "DeSantis gets warm words at GOP Hill event, but few endorsements". Politico. "I'm not endorsing anybody. I just think it's always good to see who's out there," Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Iowa) said
  32. "Campaign Almanac: More GOP presidential candidates added to Ashley Hinson's BBQ Bash". www.thegazette.com.
  33. BEAUMONT, THOMAS (July 16, 2023). "DeSantis would consider Iowa's Reynolds as running mate, calls Trump's attack of her 'out of hand'". StamfordAdvocate.
  34. Pfannenstiel, Brianne (February 15, 2023). "Uniquely powerful, Kim Reynolds could be a caucus kingmaker. Why she won't play favorites". The Des Moines Register. Archived from the original on February 15, 2023. Retrieved June 8, 2023.
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