2022 United States Senate election in Illinois
The 2022 United States Senate election in Illinois was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Illinois.
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| Elections in Illinois |
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Incumbent Democratic Senator Tammy Duckworth was first elected in 2016, defeating Republican incumbent Mark Kirk. In 2022, Duckworth was re-elected for a second term against former U.S. House of Representatives candidate Kathy Salvi, the Republican nominee. Winning by a margin of 15.3%, 0.2% more than her 2016 margin. Duckworth became the first woman ever to be re-elected for a second term in the state's history. This was also the first Illinois Senate election where both major party candidates were female.
Salvi flipped seven counties—Calhoun, McDonough, Knox, Gallatin, Pulaski, Alexander, and Madison—that had voted for Duckworth in 2016. On the other hand, Duckworth won Kendall, McLean, Peoria, and Winnebago, which had all supported Republican Mark Kirk in 2016.
This Senate seat had a history of being unfavorable to incumbents and parties in power over the past several decades. No person elected to this seat was re-elected since Alan J. Dixon in 1986. Dixon sought re-election in 1992 for a third term in office, but he lost in the Democratic primary to Carol Moseley Braun, who was later defeated for re-election in 1998. However, with Duckworth's victory, this was the first time since 1986 that a Class 3 Illinois senator was re-elected to a successive six-year term, and the first time since 1992 that any party won the seat consecutively.
Democratic primary
Nominee
- Tammy Duckworth, incumbent U.S. Senator[1]
Endorsements
Tammy Duckworth
- Organizations
- EMILY's List[2]
- End Citizens United[3]
- Feminist Majority PAC[4]
- Giffords[5]
- Illinois AFL–CIO[6]
- Illinois National Organization for Women[7]
- International Union of Operating Engineers Local 150[8]
- Jewish Dems[9]
- League of Conservation Voters[10]
- Let America Vote[3]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America[11]
- Natural Resources Defense Council[12]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[13]
- Population Connection Action Fund[14]
- Women's Political Committee[15]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Tammy Duckworth (incumbent) | 856,720 | 100.0% | |
| Total votes | 856,720 | 100.0% | ||
Republican primary
Nominee
- Kathy Salvi, attorney and candidate for Illinois's 8th congressional district in 2006[18]
Eliminated in primary
- Casey Chlebek, real estate agent[19]
- Matthew Dubiel, owner of WCKG[17][20]
- Peggy Hubbard, former police officer, U.S. Navy veteran, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020[21]
- Bobby Piton, investor and activist[22]
- Jimmy Lee Tillman, founder of New Martin Luther King Republicans, son of former Chicago alderman Dorothy Tillman, and nominee for Illinois's 1st congressional district in 2014 and 2018[23][24]
- Anthony Williams[23]
Declined
Endorsements
Bobby Piton
- Individuals
- Michael Flynn, former U.S. National Security Advisor (2017) and former Director of the DIA (2012–2014) (Democratic)[31]
Kathy Salvi
- State legislators
- Jeanne Ives, former state representative from the 42nd district (2013–2019)[32]
- Newspapers
- Chicago Tribune (Republican primary only)[33]
- Daily Herald[34]
- Organizations
- Lake County Republican Party[35]
- Republicans of Wheeling Township[36]
- Winfield Township Republicans[37]
- Schaumburg Township Republican Organization[38]
- New Trier GOP[39]
- Barrington Township Republican Organization[40]
- Sangamon County GOP[41]
- Evanston Township GOP[42]
- Homer Township Republicans[43]
- Northfield Township Republican Organization[44]
- Niles Township Republicans[45]
- Illinois Family Action[46]
- Bremen Township Republican Organization[47]
- Illinois Federation for Right to Life[48]
- McHenry County GOPAC[49]
- McHenry County ProLife Victory PAC[49]
- Illinois Citizens for Life[50]
Polling
- Graphical summary
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Casey Chlebek |
Matthew Dubiel |
Peggy Hubbard |
Bobby Piton |
Kathy Salvi |
Jimmy Lee Tillman |
Anthony Williams |
Other [lower-alpha 1] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Clear Politics | June 6–13, 2022 | June 15, 2022 | 3.5% | 5.5% | 14.0% | 4.0% | 12.5% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 57.0% | Hubbard +1.5 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Casey Chlebek |
Matthew Dubiel |
Peggy Hubbard |
Maryann Mahlen |
Bobby Piton |
Kathy Salvi |
Jimmy Lee Tillman |
Anthony Williams |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ogden & Fry (R) | June 24, 2022 | 518 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 1% | 6% | 11% | 2% | 3% | 20% | 2% | 0% | 53% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | June 10–13, 2022 | 1,075 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 6% | 4% | 18% | – | 6% | 15% | 2% | 1% | 49% |
| Ogden & Fry (R) | June 11–12, 2022 | 662 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 1% | 4% | 9% | 2% | 4% | 17% | 1% | 1% | 62% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | June 6–7, 2022 | 677 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 1% | 7% | 10% | – | 2% | 10% | 1% | 3% | 66% |
| Emerson College | May 6–8, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 4% | 4% | 7% | – | 6% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 72% |
Results
Results by county
Salvi
- 20–30%
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
Hubbard
- 20–30%
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
Dubiel
- 20–30%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Kathy Salvi | 216,007 | 30.23% | |
| Republican | Peggy Hubbard | 177,180 | 24.79% | |
| Republican | Matthew "Matt" Dubiel | 90,538 | 12.67% | |
| Republican | Casey Chlebek | 76,213 | 10.66% | |
| Republican | Robert "Bobby" Piton | 65,461 | 9.16% | |
| Republican | Anthony W. Williams | 52,890 | 7.40% | |
| Republican | Jimmy Lee Tillman II | 36,342 | 5.09% | |
| Total votes | 714,631 | 100.0% | ||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[51] | Solid D | March 4, 2022 |
| Inside Elections[52] | Solid D | April 1, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[53] | Safe D | March 1, 2022 |
| Politico[54] | Solid D | April 1, 2022 |
| RCP[55] | Likely D | October 26, 2022 |
| Fox News[56] | Solid D | May 12, 2022 |
| DDHQ[57] | Solid D | July 20, 2022 |
| 538[58] | Solid D | June 30, 2022 |
| The Economist[59] | Safe D | September 7, 2022 |
Endorsements
Tammy Duckworth (D)
- U.S. Executive Branch officials
- Joe Biden, President of the United States (2021–present)[60]
- Kamala Harris, Vice President of the United States (2021–present)[61]
- U.S. Senators
- Dick Durbin, U.S. Senator from Illinois (1997–present) and Senate Majority Whip (2021–present)[62]
- Labor Unions
- Organizations
- EMILY's List[2]
- End Citizens United[3]
- Feminist Majority PAC[4]
- Giffords[5]
- Illinois AFL–CIO[6]
- International Union of Operating Engineers Local 150[8]
- Jewish Dems[9]
- League of Conservation Voters[10]
- Let America Vote[3]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America[11]
- Natural Resources Defense Council[12]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[13]
- Population Connection Action Fund[14]
- Sierra Club[64]
- VoteVets.org[65]
- Women's Political Committee[15]
- Newspapers
Kathy Salvi (R)
- U.S. Executive Branch officials
- Mike Pompeo, 70th United States Secretary of State (2018–2021) and 6th Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (2017–2018)[68]
- State legislators
- Jeanne Ives, former state representative from the 42nd district (2013–2019)[32]
- Local officials
- Richard Irvin, mayor of Aurora[69]
- Newspapers
- The Arab Daily News[68]
- Organizations
- Huck PAC[70]
- Lake County Republican Party[35]
- Republicans of Wheeling Township[71]
- Winfield Township Republicans[37]
- Schaumburg Township Republican Organization[38]
- New Trier GOP[39]
- Barrington Township Republican Organization[40]
- Sangamon County GOP[41]
- Evanston Township GOP[42]
- Homer Township Republicans[43]
- Northfield Township Republican Organization[44]
- Niles Township Republicans[45]
- Illinois Family Action[72]
- Bremen Township Republican Organization[73]
- Illinois Federation for Right to Life[48]
- McHenry County GOPAC[49]
- McHenry County ProLife Victory PAC[49]
- Illinois Citizens for Life[50]
- Illinois Fraternal Order of Police[68]
- Moms for America Action[68]
- United Hellenic Voters of America[68]
Polling
- Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Tammy Duckworth (D) |
Kathy Salvi (R) |
Undecided [lower-alpha 3] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FiveThirtyEight | August 25 – November 8, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 55.5% | 40.2% | 4.3% | Duckworth +15.3 |
| 270towin | October 14 – November 7, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 51.6% | 36.4% | 12.0% | Duckworth +15.2 |
| Average | 53.6% | 38.3% | 8.1% | Duckworth +15.3 | ||
- Graphical summary
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Tammy Duckworth (D) |
Kathy Salvi (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | November 4–6, 2022 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 55% | 38% | 2%[lower-alpha 4] | 5% |
| Civiqs | October 22–25, 2022 | 659 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 56% | 40% | 2%[lower-alpha 5] | 2% |
| Emerson College | October 20–24, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 39% | 3%[lower-alpha 6] | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | October 10–11, 2022 | 770 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 36% | 5%[lower-alpha 7] | 9% |
| Research America | October 5–11, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 48% | 29% | 10%[lower-alpha 8] | 14% |
| Emerson College | September 21–23, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 31% | 4%[lower-alpha 9] | 16% |
| Victory Geek (D) | August 25–28, 2022 | 512 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 58% | 35% | – | 7% |
| Victory Research (R) | July 17–19, 2022 | 1,208 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 43% | 34% | 2%[lower-alpha 10] | 20% |
Hypothetical polling
- Tammy Duckworth vs. generic opponent
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Tammy Duckworth (D) |
Generic Opponent |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victory Research (R) | July 17–19, 2022 | 1,208 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 44% | 36% | 20% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Tammy Duckworth (incumbent) | 2,329,136 | 56.82% | +1.96% | |
| Republican | Kathy Salvi | 1,701,055 | 41.50% | +1.72% | |
| Libertarian | Bill Redpath | 68,671 | 1.68% | -1.53% | |
| Write-in | 34 | 0.0% | -0.01% | ||
| Total votes | 4,098,896 | 100.0% | |||
| Democratic hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
By congressional district
Duckworth won 14 of 17 congressional districts.[75]
| District | Duckworth | Salvi | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 69.1% | 29.6% | Bobby Rush (117th Congress) |
| Jonathan Jackson (118th Congress) | |||
| 2nd | 68.9% | 29.7% | Robin Kelly |
| 3rd | 68.9% | 29.5% | Marie Newman (117th Congress) |
| Delia Ramirez (118th Congress) | |||
| 4th | 69.9% | 28.3% | Chuy García |
| 5th | 70.4% | 28.2% | Mike Quigley |
| 6th | 55.3% | 43.1% | Sean Casten |
| 7th | 86% | 12.6% | Danny Davis |
| 8th | 56.3% | 42.1% | Raja Krishnamoorthi |
| 9th | 71.6% | 27% | Jan Schakowsky |
| 10th | 61.6% | 36.9% | Brad Schneider |
| 11th | 55.6% | 42.6% | Bill Foster |
| 12th | 29.4% | 68.7% | Mike Bost |
| 13th | 55.9% | 41.9% | Nikki Budzinski |
| 14th | 54.2% | 44% | Lauren Underwood |
| 15th | 32.2% | 65.6% | Mary Miller |
| 16th | 38.3% | 59.8% | Darin LaHood |
| 17th | 51.9% | 46.1% | Cheri Bustos (117th Congress) |
| Eric Sorensen (118th Congress) |
See also
Notes
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Redpath (L) with 2%
- "Someone else" with 2%
- Redpath (L) with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
- Redpath with 5%
- Redpath with 6%; "None" with 4%
- "Someone else" with 4%
- Redpath with 2%
References
- "US Sen. Tammy Duckworth announces re-election bid". Associated Press News. Chicago. March 10, 2021. Archived from the original on March 11, 2021. Retrieved April 19, 2021.
- "U.S. Senate Candidates".
- "End Citizens United // Let America Vote Endorses Senators Duckworth and Murray for Re-Election". End Citizens United. September 9, 2021. Retrieved November 20, 2021.
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- "Giffords Endorses Tammy Duckworth for Reelection to the US Senate". www.giffords.org. Giffords. March 18, 2022.
- "Political". www.ialf-cio.org. Retrieved May 1, 2022.
- "Political Action Committee". www.ilnow.org.
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- Courtnee Connon (June 10, 2021). "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of U.S. Senate Endorsements in the 2022 Election Cycle". League of Conservation Voters.
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- Newsroom (March 14, 2022). "Kathy Salvi Announces Run For U.S. Senate". wmay.com. Retrieved March 14, 2022.
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- Nowicki, Jerry (December 18, 2020). "Illinois House deputy minority leader Demmer considering statewide run in 2022". The State Journal-Register.
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- Pearson, Rick. "Rep. Adam Kinzinger has battled Trump and his fellow Republicans. In deep blue Illinois, could that be a strategy for higher office?". chicagotribune.com.
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Geneva financial planner Robert "Bobby" Piton... has raised more than $168,000 for his campaign, which is endorsed by Michael Flynn
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- "Schaumburg Township Republican Organization". www.stgop.org. Retrieved May 26, 2022.
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- "Barrington Township Republican Organization". www.kathysalvi.com. Retrieved May 26, 2022.
- "Sangamon County GOP Endorsements". www.sangamonrepublicans.com. Retrieved May 26, 2022.
- "Evanston Township GOP". www.kathysalvi.com. Retrieved May 26, 2022.
- "Homer Township Republicans". www.kathysalvi.com. Retrieved May 26, 2022.
- "Northfield Township Republican Organization". www.kathysalvi.com. Retrieved May 26, 2022.
- "Niles Township Republicans". www.kathysalvi.com. Retrieved May 26, 2022.
- Smith, David. "IFA's Pro-Life, Pro-Family Primary Picks for 2022". www.illinoisfamilyaction.org. Illinois Family Action. Retrieved May 26, 2022.
- Eaton, Fran (May 18, 2022). "South Suburban GOPers pick Salvi, Bailey, and Pekau in contested races". www.illinoisreview.com. Illinois Review. Retrieved May 26, 2022.
- "Illinois Federation for Right to Life". www.kathysalvi.com. Retrieved June 8, 2022.
- "McHenry County GOPAC". www.kathysalvi.com. Retrieved June 8, 2022.
- "Illinois Citizens for Life, PAC federal". www.kathysalvi.com. Retrieved June 8, 2022.
- "2022 Senate Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 14, 2021.
- "Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 18, 2021.
- "2022 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved January 28, 2021.
- "Illinois Senate Race 2022". Politico. April 1, 2022.
- "Battle for the Senate 2022". RCP. January 10, 2022.
- "2022 Election Forecast". Fox News. May 12, 2022. Retrieved May 12, 2022.
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- "Biden and Harris to visit Illinois before midterms". November 4, 2022.
- "Pritzker, Durbin speak on ISU's campus to endorse Chung, Koehler, encourage voting". November 2, 2022.
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- "Endorsement: Duckworth for U.S. Senate". October 8, 2022.
- "Endorsements - Kathy Salvi for U.S. Senate". www.kathysalvi.com. Retrieved November 2, 2022.
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- "2022 Election Endorsements". www.rowtgop.org. Archived from the original on May 20, 2022. Retrieved May 26, 2022.
- Smith, David. "IFA's Pro-Life, Pro-Family Primary Picks for 2022". www.illinoisfamilyaction.org. Illinois Family Action. Retrieved May 26, 2022.
- Eaton, Fran (May 18, 2022). "South Suburban GOPers pick Salvi, Bailey, and Pekau in contested races". www.illinoisreview.com. Illinois Review. Retrieved May 26, 2022.
- "2022 General Election Results". Archived from the original on January 28, 2021. Retrieved December 5, 2022.
- Results. docs.google.com (Report).
External links
- Official campaign websites
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