2010 Ohio gubernatorial election
The 2010 Ohio gubernatorial election took place on November 2, 2010. Incumbent Democratic Governor Ted Strickland ran for re-election to a second term as governor and was opposed by former U.S. Representative John Kasich; both Strickland and Kasich won their respective primaries uncontested. The race between the two major candidates was prolonged and brutal, with both candidates employing various campaign surrogates to bolster their campaigns. Ultimately, Kasich narrowly defeated Strickland in one of Ohio's closest gubernatorial elections in history.
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Kasich: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% Strickland: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | ||||||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Ohio |
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Strickland's defeat was widely attributed to the decline of Ohio's economy, as well as the loss of 400,000 jobs since the beginning of his term. The policies of the then-president Barack Obama proved to be a hot topic among voters, with Strickland voicing his support for the healthcare overhauls initiated by Obama's administration, contrary to Kasich, who opposed the policies.[1] As of 2023, this is the last time an incumbent governor of Ohio lost re-election.
Democratic primary
Candidates
- Ted Strickland, incumbent Governor of Ohio
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Ted Strickland (incumbent) | 630,785 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 630,785 | 100.00% | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
- John Kasich, former U.S. Representative, Chairman of the House Budget Committee and candidate for president in 2000
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | John Kasich | 746,719 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 746,719 | 100.00% | ||
Libertarian primary
Candidates
- Ken Matesz
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Ken Matesz | 4,407 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 4,407 | 100.00% | ||
Green primary
Candidates
- Dennis Spisak, former congressional candidate
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[6] | Tossup | October 14, 2010 |
| Rothenberg[7] | Tilt R (flip) | October 28, 2010 |
| RealClearPolitics[8] | Tossup | November 1, 2010 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] | Lean R (flip) | October 28, 2010 |
| CQ Politics[10] | Tossup | October 28, 2010 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Ted Strickland (D) |
John Kasich (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | October 28–30, 2010 | 48% | 49% |
| Angus Reid Public Opinion | October 27–29, 2010 | 46% | 49% |
| Survey USA | October 22–26, 2010 | 44% | 49% |
| Quinnipiac University | October 18–24, 2010 | 43% | 49% |
| Fox News/POR | October 23, 2010 | 43% | 47% |
| CNN/Time Magazine | October 15–19, 2010 | 48% | 46% |
| University of Cincinnati | October 14–18, 2010 | 47% | 49% |
| Quinnipiac University | October 12–17, 2010 | 41% | 51% |
| University of Cincinnati | October 8–13, 2010 | 43% | 51% |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 11, 2010 | 45% | 48% |
| Fox News/POR | October 9, 2010 | 42% | 47% |
| Angus Reid Public Opinion | October 5–8, 2010 | 46% | 48% |
| Quinnipiac University | September 29 – October 3, 2010 | 41% | 50% |
| Fox News/POR | October 2, 2010 | 43% | 49% |
| Rasmussen Reports | September 27, 2010 | 42% | 50% |
| CBS/NY Times | September 23–27, 2010 | 42% | 43% |
| Reuters/Ipsos | September 23–25, 2010 | 46% | 47% |
| Ohio Newspapers Poll/UC | September 24, 2010 | 45% | 49% |
| SurveyUSA | September 14, 2010 | 40% | 52% |
| CNN/Time Magazine | September 10–14, 2010 | 44% | 51% |
| Quinnipiac | September 9–14, 2010 | 37% | 54% |
| Rasmussen Reports | September 13, 2010 | 43% | 50% |
| Fox News/Pulse Research | September 11, 2010 | 43% | 48% |
| The Columbus Dispatch | August 25 – September 3, 2010 | 37% | 49% |
| Rasmussen Reports | August 30, 2010 | 39% | 47% |
| Public Policy Polling | August 27–29, 2010 | 40% | 50% |
| Rasmussen Reports | August 16, 2010 | 40% | 48% |
| Reuters/Ipsos | August 6–8, 2010 | 39% | 48% |
| Rasmussen Reports | August 2, 2010 | 42% | 45% |
| Rasmussen Reports | July 19, 2010 | 43% | 48% |
| Rasmussen Reports | June 29, 2010 | 40% | 47% |
| Public Policy Polling | June 26–27, 2010 | 41% | 43% |
| Quinnipiac | June 22–27, 2010 | 43% | 38% |
| Rasmussen Reports | June 3, 2010 | 42% | 47% |
| UC/The Ohio Poll | May 11–20, 2010 | 49% | 44% |
| Rasmussen Reports | May 5, 2010 | 45% | 46% |
| Quinnipiac | April 21–26, 2010 | 44% | 38% |
| Research 2000 | April 5–7, 2010 | 45% | 40% |
| Rasmussen Reports | March 30, 2010 | 45% | 46% |
| Quinnipiac | March 23–29, 2010 | 43% | 38% |
| Public Policy Polling | March 20–21, 2010 | 37% | 42% |
| Rasmussen Reports | March 4, 2010 | 38% | 49% |
| Quinnipiac | February 16–21, 2010 | 44% | 39% |
| Rasmussen Reports | February 5–6, 2010 | 41% | 47% |
| The Ohio Newspaper | January 13–19, 2010 | 45% | 51% |
| Ohio Right to Life | January 8–12, 2010 | 33% | 43% |
| Rasmussen Reports | January 12, 2010 | 40% | 47% |
| Rasmussen Reports | December 7, 2009 | 39% | 48% |
| Quinnipiac | November 5–9, 2009 | 40% | 40% |
| The Ohio Newspaper | October 14–20, 2009 | 48% | 47% |
| Rasmussen Reports | September 23, 2009 | 45% | 46% |
| Quinnipiac | September 10–13, 2009 | 46% | 36% |
| Research 2000 | July 8, 2009 | 44% | 39% |
| Quinnipiac | June 26 – July 1, 2009 | 43% | 38% |
| Public Policy Polling | June 17–19, 2009 | 44% | 42% |
| Quinnipiac | April 28 – May 4, 2009 | 51% | 32% |
| Quinnipiac | March 10–15, 2009 | 51% | 31% |
| Quinnipiac | January 29 – February 2, 2009 | 56% | 26% |
| Public Policy Polling | January 17–18, 2009 | 45% | 39% |
Results
When the polls closed on election night, the race was very close, with Strickland and Kasich neck and neck. As the night wore on, Kasich's lead began to pick up strength, however once Cuyahoga County came in, Kasich's lead began to erode. In the end Kasich still won, but it was one of the closest gubernatorial elections in Ohio history. Strickland conceded at around 2 A.M. EST.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | John Kasich | 1,889,186 | 49.04% | +12.39% | |
| Democratic | Ted Strickland (incumbent) | 1,812,059 | 47.04% | -13.50% | |
| Libertarian | Ken Matesz | 92,116 | 2.39% | +0.61% | |
| Green | Dennis Spisak | 58,475 | 1.52% | +0.50% | |
| Write-in | 633 | 0.02% | N/A | ||
| Majority | 77,127 | 2.00% | -21.89% | ||
| Total votes | 3,852,469 | 100.00% | |||
| Republican gain from Democratic | |||||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Sandusky (Largest city: Fremont)
- Seneca (Largest city: Tiffin)
- Huron (Largest city: Norwalk)
- Lake (Largest city: Mentor)
- Portage (largest city: Kent)
- Stark (largest city: Canton)
- Columbiana (Largest city: Salem)
- Carroll (Largest city: Carrollton)
- Tuscarawas (largest city: New Philadelphia)
- Guernsey (Largest city: Cambridge)
- Clark (largest municipality: Springfield)
- Gallia (Largest city: Gallipolis)
- Adams (Largest city: West Union)
- Ashland (Largest city: Ashland)
- Allen (Largest city: Lima)
- Champaign (Largest city: Urbana)
- Brown (Largest city: Georgetown)
- Clinton (Largest city: Wilmington)
- Coshocton (Largest city: Coshocton)
- Crawford (Largest city: Bucyrus)
- Delaware (Largest city: Delaware)
- Defiance (Largest city: Defiance)
- Fairfield (Largest city: Lancaster)
- Fayette (Largest city: Washington Court House)
- Fulton (Largest city: Wauseon)
- Geauga (Largest city: Chardon)
- Highland (Largest city: Hillsboro)
- Hardin (Largest city: Kenton)
- Holmes (Largest city: Millersburg)
- Henry (Largest city: Napoleon)
- Knox (Largest city: Mount Vernon)
- Licking (Largest city: Newark)
- Madison (Largest city: London)
- Marion (Largest city: Marion)
- Medina (Largest city: Medina)
- Morgan (Largest city: McConnelsville)
- Morrow (Largest city: Mount Gilead)
- Muskingum (Largest city: Zanesville)
- Perry (Largest city: New Lexington)
- Pickaway (Largest city: Circleville)
- Preble (Largest city: Eaton)
- Richland (Largest city: Mansfield)
- Wayne (Largest city: Wooster)
- Williams (Largest city: Bryan)
- Wyandot (Largest city: Upper Sandusky)
References
- "Ohio - Election Results 2010 - The New York Times". www.nytimes.com. Retrieved May 21, 2020.
- "Governor and Lieutenant Governor - Democratic: May 4, 2010 - Ohio Secretary of State". www.sos.state.oh.us.
- "Governor and Lieutenant Governor - Republican: May 4, 2010 - Ohio Secretary of State". www.sos.state.oh.us.
- "Governor and Lieutenant Governor - Libertarian: May 4, 2010 - Ohio Secretary of State". www.sos.state.oh.us.
- "Governor and Lieutenant Governor - Green: May 4, 2010 - Ohio Secretary of State". www.sos.state.oh.us.
- "2010 Governors Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
- "Governor Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
- "2010 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
- "THE CRYSTAL BALL'S FINAL CALLS". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
- "Race Ratings Chart: Governor". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 5, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
- "Governor and Lieutenant Governor: November 2, 2010 - Ohio Secretary of State". www.sos.state.oh.us.
External links
- Elections & Ballot Issues at the Ohio Secretary of State
- Candidates for Ohio State Offices at Project Vote Smart
- Campaign contributions for 2010 Ohio Governor from Follow the Money
- 2010 Ohio Gubernatorial General Election: John Kasich (R) vs Ted Strickland (D) graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
- Election 2010: Ohio Governor from Rasmussen Reports
- 2010 Ohio Governor – Kasich vs. Strickland from Real Clear Politics
- 2010 Ohio Governor's Race from CQ Politics
- Race Profile in The New York Times
- Debates
- Ohio Gubernatorial Debate, C-SPAN, September 14, 2010
- Official campaign websites (Archived)
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