2004 United States presidential election in Arizona

The 2004 United States presidential election in Arizona took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 10 representatives, or electors, to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

2004 United States presidential election in Arizona

November 2, 2004
Turnout76.3% (of registered voters)
49.6% (of voting age population)
 
Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Texas Massachusetts
Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards
Electoral vote 10 0
Popular vote 1,104,294 893,524
Percentage 54.77% 44.32%

County results

President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

Arizona was won by incumbent George W. Bush by 10.5%. Prior to the election, 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a safe red state. Neither major party tickets campaigned here in the fall election. Arizona hosted the third presidential debate on October 13, 2004, in the city of Tempe.

As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last time Arizona was won by a double-digit margin of victory. This was the first election in which any candidate won more than a million votes as well as in which Maricopa County cast more than a million ballots. Until 2016, this would be the last time Arizona voted to the left of Georgia or North Carolina. As of 2020, this is the last time Arizona voted to the right of Arkansas.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

Source Ranking
D.C. Political Report Solid R
Associated Press Lean R
CNN Likely R
Cook Political Report Likely R
Newsweek Solid R
New York Times Lean R
Rasmussen Reports Likely R
Research 2000 Solid R
Washington Post Likely R
Washington Times Lean R
Zogby International Likely R
Washington Dispatch Likely R

Polling

Throughout several polls taken in the state in 2004, just one showed Kerry leading. The final 3 pre-election polls showed that Bush was leading with 51% to Kerry's 43%.[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $3,196,692.[3] Kerry raised $1,525,930.[4]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall campaign.[5][6]

Analysis

The exit polls showed that Bush was the going to be the clear winner of the state, based on the fact that both Bush won among both genders. A major key factor was how 55% of the people thought the state economy was good, and 70% of those people voted for Bush. Also, 55% of the state approved of Bush.[7]

The key to Bush's victory was winning the highly populated Maricopa County with almost 57%. However, Kerry did win portions of the state such as Arizona's 4th congressional district and Arizona's 7th congressional district and 4 counties. 50% of the voting age population came out to vote.

Results

2004 United States presidential election in Arizona[8][9][10]
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican George W. Bush (incumbent) 1,104,294 54.77% 10
Democratic John Kerry 893,524 44.32% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik 11,856 0.59% 0
Write In Write-in candidate 3,517 0.17% 0
Write In Ralph Nader 2,773 0.14% 0
Write In David Cobb 138 0.01% 0
Totals 2,012,585 100.00% 10
Voter turnout (voting age) 49.6%

Results by county

County George W. Bush[11]
Republican
John Kerry[11]
Democratic
Michael Badnarik[11]
Libertarian
Various candidates[11]
Write-ins
Margin Total votes cast
#  % #  % #  % #  % #  %
Apache 8,384 34.65% 15,658 64.71% 142 0.59% 14 0.06% −7,274 −30.06% 24,198
Cochise 26,556 59.55% 17,514 39.27% 318 0.71% 207 0.46% 9,042 20.28% 44,595
Coconino 22,526 43.00% 29,243 55.82% 377 0.72% 245 0.47% −6,717 −12.82% 52,391
Gila 12,343 59.12% 8,314 39.82% 155 0.74% 65 0.31% 4,029 19.30% 20,877
Graham 7,467 69.65% 3,185 29.71% 66 0.62% 2 0.02% 4,282 39.94% 10,720
Greenlee 1,899 61.92% 1,146 37.37% 19 0.62% 3 0.10% 753 24.55% 3,067
La Paz 3,158 62.42% 1,849 36.55% 45 0.89% 7 0.14% 1,309 25.87% 5,059
Maricopa 679,455 56.86% 504,849 42.25% 6,776 0.57% 3,881 0.32% 174,606 14.61% 1,194,961
Mohave 36,794 63.53% 20,503 35.40% 393 0.68% 225 0.39% 16,291 28.13% 57,915
Navajo 17,277 53.32% 14,815 45.72% 224 0.69% 88 0.27% 2,462 7.60% 32,404
Pima 171,109 46.56% 193,128 52.55% 2,109 0.57% 1,146 0.31% −22,019 −5.99% 367,492
Pinal 37,006 57.27% 27,252 42.17% 333 0.52% 31 0.05% 9,754 15.10% 64,622
Santa Cruz 4,668 39.93% 6,909 59.11% 80 0.68% 32 0.27% −2,241 −19.18% 11,689
Yavapai 53,468 61.05% 33,127 37.82% 612 0.70% 376 0.43% 20,341 23.23% 87,583
Yuma 22,184 57.58% 16,032 41.61% 207 0.54% 106 0.28% 6,152 15.97% 38,529
Totals1,104,29454.77%893,52444.32%11,8560.59%6,4280.32%210,77010.45%2,016,102

Results by congressional district

Bush won six of eight congressional districts.[12]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 54% 46% Rick Renzi
2nd 61% 38% Trent Franks
3rd 58% 41% John Shadegg
4th 38% 62% Ed Pastor
5th 54% 45% J. D. Hayworth
6th 64% 35% Jeff Flake
7th 43% 57% Raul Grijalva
8th 53% 46% Jim Kolbe

Electors

Technically the voters of Arizona cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Arizona is allocated 10 electors because it has 8 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 10 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 10 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from this state. All were pledged to and voted for George W. Bush and Dick Cheney.[13]

  1. Linda Barber
  2. Malcolm Barrett
  3. Jim Click
  4. Cynthia J. Collins
  5. Webb Crockett
  6. Elizabeth Wilkinson Fannin
  7. Ross Farnsworth
  8. Ira A. Fulton
  9. Bernice C. Roberts
  10. Phillip Townsend

Notes

    References

    1. "Archived copy". dcpoliticalreport.com. Archived from the original on November 21, 2010. Retrieved January 17, 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
    2. "Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". Archived from the original on July 20, 2012.
    3. "George W Bush – $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". Campaignmoney.com. Retrieved May 31, 2015.
    4. "John F Kerry – $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President". Campaignmoney.com. Retrieved May 31, 2015.
    5. "Specials". Cnn.com. Retrieved May 31, 2015.
    6. "Specials". Cnn.com. Retrieved May 31, 2015.
    7. "Election 2004". Cnn.com. April 13, 1970. Retrieved May 31, 2015.
    8. "Election 2004". Cnn.com. April 13, 1970. Retrieved May 31, 2015.
    9. "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on May 13, 2009. Retrieved July 17, 2009.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
    10. "2004 Presidential General Election Results – Arizona".
    11. Our campaigns; AZ US President Race, November 02, 2004
    12. "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000–2008". Swingstateproject.com. Retrieved May 31, 2015.
    13. "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on May 14, 2008. Retrieved June 27, 2009.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
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