2016 United States Senate election in Louisiana

The 2016 United States Senate election in Louisiana took place on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Louisiana, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

See also: 2016 United States Senate elections

2016 United States Senate election in Louisiana
November 8, 2016 (first round)
December 10, 2016 (runoff)
Turnout67.8% Increase (first round) 29.0% Decrease (runoff)
 
Candidate John Kennedy Foster Campbell Charles Boustany
Party Republican Democratic Republican
First round 482,591
24.96%		 337,833
17.47%		 298,008
15.41%
Runoff 536,191
60.65%		 347,816
39.35%		 Eliminated
 
Candidate Caroline Fayard John Fleming
Party Democratic Republican
First round 240,917
12.46%		 204,026
10.55%
Runoff Eliminated Eliminated
Kennedy:      20–30%      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Campbell:      20–30%      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Boustany:      20—30%      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%
Fayard:      20—30%
Fleming:      30–40%      40–50%
U.S. senator before election

David Vitter
Republican

 Elected U.S. Senator

John Kennedy
Republican

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Under Louisiana's "jungle primary" system, all candidates appeared on the same ballot, regardless of party, and voters could vote for any candidate. Since no candidate received a majority of the vote during the primary election, a runoff election was held December 10[1] between the top two candidates in the primary, Republican John Neely Kennedy and Democrat Foster Campbell, where Kennedy won with 60.65% of the vote, becoming the first non-incumbent Republican Senator in the state since Reconstruction, giving Senate Republicans 52 seats in the 115th Congress. Louisiana is the only state that has a jungle primary system (California and Washington have a similar "top two primary" system).

Incumbent Republican Senator David Vitter unsuccessfully ran for Governor of Louisiana in 2015,[2] and in his concession speech he announced that he would not seek re-election to the Senate in 2016.[3]

In addition to Kennedy and Campbell, four other candidates — Republicans Charles Boustany, John Fleming, and David Duke, and Democrat Caroline Fayard — qualified to participate at a debate at Dillard University, a historically black college, on November 2, 2016[4][5]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Declared

Declined

Declared

Declared

Jungle primary

Debates
Dates Location Kennedy Campbell Boustany Fayard Fleming Duke Link
October 18, 2016 Ruston, Louisiana Participant Participant Participant Participant Participant Not invited Full debate - C-SPAN
November 2, 2016 New Orleans, Louisiana Participant Participant Participant Participant Participant Participant Full debate - C-SPAN

Endorsements
Charles Boustany
Foster Campbell
Individuals
Organizations
David Duke
Individuals
Organizations
Caroline Fayard
Individuals
Organizations
John Fleming
Individuals
Organizations
John Neely Kennedy
Individuals
Organizations
Rob Maness
Individuals
Organizations

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Charles
Boustany (R)		 Foster
Campbell (D)		 David
Duke (R)		 Caroline
Fayard (D)		 John
Fleming (R)		 John
Kennedy (R)		 Rob
Maness (R)		 Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 982 ± 4.6% 14% 13% 3% 21% 12% 21% 6% 4%[lower-alpha 1] 6%
SurveyMonkey October 31 – November 6, 2016 840 ± 4.6% 15% 14% 3% 20% 11% 21% 6% 5%[lower-alpha 2] 5%
SurveyMonkey October 28 – November 3, 2016 646 ± 4.6% 15% 14% 3% 19% 11% 21% 5% 4%[lower-alpha 3] 8%
SurveyMonkey October 27 – November 2, 2016 546 ± 4.6% 13% 13% 3% 21% 12% 21% 5% 4%[lower-alpha 4] 8%
SurveyMonkey October 26 – November 1, 2016 470 ± 4.6% 13% 13% 2% 21% 12% 23% 4% 3%[lower-alpha 5] 9%
Southern Media and Opinion Research October 19–21, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 14% 16% — 12% 9% 22% — — 27%
The Times-Picayune/Lucid October 15–21, 2016 614 ± 3.0% 12% 17% 4% 12% 10% 18% 4% 7%[lower-alpha 6] 17%
University of New Orleans Archived October 29, 2016, at the Wayback Machine October 15–21, 2016 603 ± 4.0% 15% 15% 2% 10% 11% 22% 4% 9%[lower-alpha 7] 12%
FOX 8/Mason-Dixon October 20, 2016 625 ± 4.0% 11% 19% 5% 12% 10% 24% 3% 3%[lower-alpha 8] 13%
Market Research Insight October 17–19, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 16% 14% — 12% 7% 17% — — 34%
JMC Analytics (R) October 11–15, 2016 800 ± 3.5% 16% 25% 3% 10% 16% 16% 3% 2% 10%
JMC Analytics (R) September 22–24, 2016 905 ± 3.3% 15% 15% 3% 12% 14% 11% 4% 1% 25%
Market Research Insight September 17–19, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 12% 10% — 11% 10% 18% — — 39%
Southern Media and Opinion Research September 15–17, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 15% 9% 3% 11% 8% 17% 3% 7%[lower-alpha 9] 26%
Anzalone Liszt Grove Research (D) August 29 – September 1, 2016 605 ± 4.0% 13% 7% 3% 13% 6% 18% 4% 5%[lower-alpha 10] 31%
The Hayride/Remington Research August 29–30, 2016 1,017 ± 3.2% 13% 16% 6% 12% 6% 27% 4% — 15%
GBA Strategies June 6–9, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 11% 15% — 14% 9% 30% 6% 12%[lower-alpha 11] 2%
Anzalone Liszt Grove Research Archived August 12, 2016, at the Wayback Machine May 31 – June 2, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 11% 14% — 9% 7% 24% 3% – 33%
Southern Media and Opinion Research May 19–23, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 10% 9% — 4% 5% 32% 4% 3%[lower-alpha 12] 32%
SurveyUSA March 4–8, 2016 600 ± 4.1% 10% 12% — 10% 7% 21% 6% 12%[lower-alpha 13] 15%
Southern Media and Opinion Research February 2–4, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 10% 7% — 4% 6% 22% 7% — 30%
SurveyUSA December 4–7, 2015 600 ± 4.1% 10% 23% — – 6% 21% 9% — 19%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Scott
Angelle (R)		 Charles
Boustany (R)		 John
Fleming (R)		 John
Kennedy (R)		 Mitch
Landrieu (D)		 Undecided
MRI December 2–4, 2015 600 ± 4.1% 24% 15% 5% 15% 30% 11%
NSO Research (R-Kennedy) January 10–13, 2014 600 ± 4% – 13% 7% 18% 39% 23%

Results
United States Senate election in Louisiana, 2016[130]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican John Kennedy 482,591 24.96
Democratic Foster Campbell 337,833 17.47
Republican Charles Boustany 298,008 15.41
Democratic Caroline Fayard 240,917 12.46
Republican John Fleming 204,026 10.55
Republican Rob Maness 90,856 4.7
Republican David Duke 58,606 3.03
Democratic Derrick Edwards 51,774 2.68
Democratic Gary Landrieu 45,587 2.36
Republican Donald "Crawdaddy" Crawford 25,523 1.32
Republican Joseph Cao 21,019 1.09
Independent Beryl Billiot 19,352 1
Libertarian Thomas Clements 11,370 0.59
Independent Troy Hebert 9,503 0.49
Democratic Josh Pellerin 7,395 0.38
Democratic Peter Williams 6,855 0.35
Democratic Vinny Mendoza 4,927 0.25
Independent Kaitlin Marone 4,108 0.21
Libertarian Le Roy Gillam 4,067 0.21
Republican Charles Eugene Marsala 3,684 0.19
Republican Abhay Patel 1,576 0.08
Independent Arden Wells 1,483 0.08
Independent Bob Lang 1,424 0.07
Independent Gregory Taylor 1,151 0.06
Total votes 1,933,635 100

Maps
  • Support for Boustany by parish:  >50%  40–50%  30–40%  20–30%  10–20%  <10%
    Support for Boustany by parish:
      >50%
      40–50%
      30–40%
      20–30%
      10–20%
      <10%
  • Support for Campbell by parish:  35–40%  30–35%  25–30%  20–25%  15–20%  10–15%  5–10%  <5%
    Support for Campbell by parish:
      35–40%
      30–35%
      25–30%
      20–25%
      15–20%
      10–15%
      5–10%
      <5%
  • Support for Duke by parish:  >8%  7–8%  6–7%  5–6%  4–5%  3–4%  2–3%  1–2%  <1%
    Support for Duke by parish:
      >8%
      7–8%
      6–7%
      5–6%
      4–5%
      3–4%
      2–3%
      1–2%
      <1%
  • Support for Edwards by parish:  >7%  6–7%  4–5%  3–4%  2–3%  1–2%  <1%
    Support for Edwards by parish:
      >7%
      6–7%
      4–5%
      3–4%
      2–3%
      1–2%
      <1%
  • Support for Fayard by parish:  >30%  25–30%  20–25%  15–20%  10–15%  5–10%  <5%
    Support for Fayard by parish:
      >30%
      25–30%
      20–25%
      15–20%
      10–15%
      5–10%
      <5%
  • Support for Fleming by parish:  >40%  35–40%  30–35%  25–30%  20–25%  15–20%  10–15%  5–10%  <5%
    Support for Fleming by parish:
      >40%
      35–40%
      30–35%
      25–30%
      20–25%
      15–20%
      10–15%
      5–10%
      <5%
  • Support for Kennedy by parish:  >40%  35–40%  30–35%  25–30%  20–25%  15–20%  10–15%  5–10%
    Support for Kennedy by parish:
      >40%
      35–40%
      30–35%
      25–30%
      20–25%
      15–20%
      10–15%
      5–10%
  • Support for Maness by parish:  >9%  8–9%  7–8%  6–7%  5–6%  4–5%  3–4%  2–3%  1–2%  <1%
    Support for Maness by parish:
      >9%
      8–9%
      7–8%
      6–7%
      5–6%
      4–5%
      3–4%
      2–3%
      1–2%
      <1%

Runoff

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 John
Kennedy (R)		 Foster
Campbell (D)		 Undecided
University of New Orleans Archived December 20, 2016, at the Wayback Machine December 6, 2016 776 ± 4.9% 62% 33% 5%
Trafalgar Group (R) December 5–6, 2016 2,500 ± 2.0% 56% 40% 4%
Emerson College November 29–30, 2016 400 ± 4.9% 51% 33% 16%
Southern Media and Opinion Research November 28–30, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 52% 38% 10%
Tulane University November 8–18, 2016 820 ± 3.0% 60% 40% 0%
Trafalgar Group (R) November 14–17, 2016 2,200 ± 2.1% 58% 35% 6%
The Hayride/Remington Research August 29–30, 2016 1,017 ± 3.2% 51% 27% 22%
SurveyUSA March 4–8, 2016 600 ± 4.1% 54% 34% 12%
Hypothetical polling
Poll
source		 Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 John
Neely
Kennedy (R)		 Caroline
Fayard (D)		 Undecided
Anzalone Liszt Grove Research August 29–September 1, 2016 605 ± 4.0% 49% 38% 13%
SurveyUSA March 4–8, 2016 600 ± 4.1% 54% 34% 12%
Poll
source		 Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 David
Duke (R)		 Caroline
Fayard (D)		 Undecided
Anzalone Liszt Grove Research August 29–September 1, 2016 605 ± 4.0% 15% 64% 21%
Poll
source		 Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Charles
Boustany (R)		 John
Neely
Kennedy (R)		 Undecided
SurveyUSA March 4–8, 2016 600 ± 4.1% 22% 50% 27%
Poll
source		 Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Charles
Boustany (R)		 Caroline
Fayard (D)		 Undecided
Anzalone Liszt Grove Research August 29–September 1, 2016 605 ± 4.0% 40% 43% 17%

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[131] Safe R November 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[132] Likely R November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[133] Safe R November 3, 2016
Daily Kos[134] Safe R November 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics[135] Likely R November 7, 2016

Results
United States Senate election runoff in Louisiana, 2016[136]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican John Neely Kennedy 536,191 60.65% +4.09%
Democratic Foster Campbell 347,816 39.35% +1.68%
Total votes 884,007 100% N/A
Republican hold

Parishes that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Parishes that flipped from Democratic to Republican

References
Additional candidates
  1. Joshua Pellerin (D) with 4%
  2. Joshua Pellerin (D) with 5%
  3. Joshua Pellerin (D) with 4%
  4. Joshua Pellerin (D) with 4%
  5. Joshua Pellerin (D) with 3%
  6. "Others" with 5% and Joseph Cao (R) with 2%
  7. "Others" with 7%, Joseph Cao (R) with 1% and Abhay Patel (R) with 1%
  8. "Others" with 2%, Derrick Edwards (D) with 1%, Gary Landrieu (D), Vinny Mendoza (D), Joshua Pellerin (D), and Peter Williams (D) all with 0%
  9. "Others", Joseph Cao (R), and Peter Williams (D) each with 2% and Troy Hebert (I) with 1%
  10. Troy Hebert (I) with 3%, Peter Williams (D) and "Others" each with 1%
  11. Troy Hebert (I) with 7%, Joseph Cao (R) with 3%, and Peter Williams (D) 2%
  12. Troy Hebert (I) with 2% and Eric Skrmetta (R) with 1%
  13. Troy Hebert (I) with 5%, Joseph Cao (R) with 4%, and Peter Williams (D) with 3%
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