45th Canadian federal election

The 45th Canadian federal election will take place on or before October 20, 2025, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament.

45th Canadian federal election
On or before October 20, 2025 (2025-10-20)
343 seats in the House of Commons[lower-alpha 1]
172[lower-alpha 2] seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Trudeau G7 Cropped.jpeg
Pierre Poilievre with Wife (cropped).jpg
Yves-François Blanchet in October 2009.jpg
Leader Justin Trudeau Pierre Poilievre Yves-François Blanchet
Party Liberal Conservative Bloc Québécois
Leader since April 14, 2013 September 10, 2022 January 17, 2019
Leader's seat Papineau Carleton Beloeil—Chambly
Last election 160[lower-alpha 3] seats, 32.62% 119 seats, 33.74% 32 seats, 7.64%
Current seats 158 117 32
Seats needed Increase 14 Increase 55 N/A[lower-alpha 4]
 
Jagmeet Singh in Brantford 2022 2 (cropped3).jpg
Elizabeth May 4431 (37439753570) (cropped).jpg
Maxime Bernier portrait 2023.png
Leader Jagmeet Singh Elizabeth May Maxime Bernier
Party New Democratic Green People's
Leader since October 1, 2017 November 19, 2022 September 14, 2018
Leader's seat Burnaby South Saanich—Gulf Islands N/A[lower-alpha 5]
Last election 25 seats, 17.82% 2 seats, 2.33% 0 seats, 4.94%
Current seats 25 2 0
Seats needed Increase 147 Increase 170 Increase 172
New federal boundaries shaded by their hypothetical winner under the 2021 federal election results.
Incumbent Prime Minister

Justin Trudeau
Liberal


The date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the Canada Elections Act, which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.[1] In addition to the statutory fixed election date provisions, Canada has a constitutional requirement specified in both section 50 of the Constitution Act, 1867 and section 4 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms that elections for the House of Commons must be held no more than five years after the preceding election.

The election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government. Early elections are more likely to occur during minority governments because the prime minister does not control a majority in the House of Commons.[2][3][4]

Depending on the date the election is called, it may potentially be the first contested using a new 343-constituency electoral map based on the 2021 Canadian census. New electoral boundary sets for each of the ten provinces were finalized between February 14, 2023[5][6] and July 8, 2023,[7] and officially proclaimed on September 22, 2023.[8] Any election that occurs on or after April 22, 2024 will use the new boundaries, while any called prior will re-use the 338-seat boundary set presently in force.[9][8][10]

Background

The 2021 Canadian federal election, held on September 20 that year, saw little change from the preceding 2019 election.[11] The incumbent Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, failed to win a parliamentary majority or the popular vote, but remained the party with the most seats and remained in office as a minority government. The Conservatives won the popular vote and continued as the Official Opposition.[12][lower-alpha 6] On September 27, Annamie Paul resigned as the Green Party leader,[13] which came into effect on November 10.[14]

Electoral redistribution
Main article: 2022 Canadian federal electoral redistribution

The Constitution Act, 1867, requires that federal electoral districts undergo a redistribution following each decennial Canadian census.[15] Using the 2021 Canadian census population results, the 2022 redistribution began in October 2021, and was completed in September 2023.[16]

On October 15, 2021, the chief electoral officer announced that based on the procedure in the Constitution Act, 1867 as then in force, the allocation would result in an increase to 342 seats.[17] This included a reduction of Quebec’s allocation from 78 to 77 seats. The government tabled legislation on March 24, 2022, to prevent Quebec (or any other province) from losing any seats relative to the number of seats it was apportioned in 2012 redistribution.[18][19] Bill C-14 amended rule 2 of subsection 51(1) of the Constitution Act, 1867, commonly known as the "Grandfather Clause".[20][21] The bill passed the House of Commons on June 15,[22] the Senate on June 21,[23] and received royal assent on June 23, 2022.[24] The chief electoral officer announced the new allocation of seats on July 8, 2022, which would result in an increase to 343 seats.[25]

Pursuant to the Electoral Boundaries Readjustment Act as amended, ten federal electoral boundary commissions were established, one for each province, on November 1, 2021.[26] The boundary-drawing process commenced upon the release of census data in February 2022. Quebec’s commission adjusted its work to be based on a 78-seat allocation in July 2022. The respective commissions completed their work and finalized new electoral boundary sets on a rolling basis, beginning with the Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island commissions on February 14, 2023,[5][6] and finishing with the Ontario commission on July 8, 2023.[7] The Chief Electoral Officer then used the final reports of the electoral boundary commissions to formalize a Representation Order, which was proclaimed on September 22, 2023.[8]

The changes to federal electoral district boundaries will take effect at the earliest on April 22, 2024.[9][17][8] If the election is called before April 22, 2024, it will occur with the current electoral district boundaries, which have been in effect since the 2015 federal election was called on August 4, 2015.[27][28]

Parties and standings

The table below lists parties represented in the House of Commons after the 2021 federal election and their current standings. Kevin Vuong was elected as a Liberal, having been disavowed by the party too late to alter his affiliation on the ballot, and sits as an independent.[29]

Name Ideology Position Leader 2021 result Current standing
Votes (%) Seats
Liberal Liberalism
Social liberalism		 Centre to centre-left Justin Trudeau
32.62%
160 / 338
158 / 338
Conservative Conservatism
Economic liberalism
Fiscal conservatism		 Centre-right to right-wing Pierre Poilievre
33.74%
119 / 338
117 / 338
Bloc Québécois Quebec nationalism
Quebec sovereigntist
Social democracy		 Centre-left Yves-François Blanchet
7.64%
32 / 338
32 / 338
New Democratic Social democracy
Democratic socialism		 Centre-left to left-wing Jagmeet Singh
17.82%
25 / 338
25 / 338
Green Green politics Elizabeth May
2.33%
2 / 338
2 / 338
Independents N/A
0.19%
0 / 338
3 / 338
Vacant N/A
1 / 338

Incumbents not running for re-election

As of October 2023, eleven MPs have chosen not to run in the 45th federal election.

Member of Parliament Electoral district Province or territory Date announced
  Ron Liepert[30] Calgary Signal Hill Alberta February 17, 2023
  Wayne Long[31] Saint John—Rothesay New Brunswick March 14, 2023
  Randall Garrison[32] Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke British Columbia April 27, 2023
  Lloyd Longfield[33] Guelph Ontario June 28, 2023
  Carolyn Bennett[34] Toronto—St. Paul's Ontario July 24, 2023
  Helena Jaczek[35] Markham—Stouffville Ontario July 25, 2023
  Joyce Murray[36] Vancouver Quadra British Columbia July 25, 2023
  Omar Alghabra[37] Mississauga Centre Ontario July 25, 2023
  Alain Rayes[38] Richmond—Arthabaska Quebec September 11, 2023
  Richard Cannings[39] South Okanagan—West Kootenay British Columbia September 12, 2023
  Anthony Rota[40] Nipissing—Timiskaming Ontario October 23, 2023

Timeline
See also: 44th Canadian Parliament
Changes in seats held (2021–)
House of Commons – Changes in seats held
Seat Before Change
Date Member Party Reason Date Member Party
Spadina—Fort York November 22, 2021 Kevin Vuong █ Liberal Excluded from caucus █ Independent
Mississauga—Lakeshore May 27, 2022 Sven Spengemann █ Liberal Resigned[a 1] December 12, 2022 Charles Sousa █ Liberal
Richmond—Arthabaska September 13, 2022 Alain Rayes █ Conservative Left caucus █ Independent
Winnipeg South Centre December 12, 2022 Jim Carr █ Liberal Death June 19, 2023 Ben Carr █ Liberal
Calgary Heritage December 31, 2022 Bob Benzen █ Conservative Resigned July 24, 2023 Shuvaloy Majumdar █ Conservative
Oxford January 27, 2023 Dave MacKenzie █ Conservative Resigned June 19, 2023 Arpan Khanna █ Conservative
Portage—Lisgar February 28, 2023 Candice Bergen █ Conservative Resigned June 19, 2023 Branden Leslie █ Conservative
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount March 8, 2023 Marc Garneau █ Liberal Resigned June 19, 2023 Anna Gainey █ Liberal
Don Valley North March 22, 2023 Han Dong █ Liberal Left caucus █ Independent
Durham August 1, 2023 Erin O'Toole █ Conservative Resigned █ Vacant
  1. to accept a position with the United Nations

2021
  • September 27 – Annamie Paul announced her intent to resign as leader of the Green Party.[41]
  • November 10 – Paul formally submitted her resignation, and ended her membership in the party.[14] The Green Party accepted her resignation a few days later.[42][43]
  • November 15 – Senator Denise Batters launched a petition to review the leadership of Erin O'Toole.[44] Party president Robert Batherson decided the petition was not in order.[44] The following day, Batters was removed from the conservative caucus.[45]
  • November 24 – Amita Kuttner was appointed as Green Party interim leader.[46][47]
  • December 5 – The People's Party concluded its leadership review of Maxime Bernier. He was confirmed and continued as leader.[48][49]

2022

2023

Opinion polls
Main article: Opinion polling for the 45th Canadian federal election
Opinion polling for
Canadian federal elections
2008
Opinion polls
2011
Opinion polls • By constituency
2015
Opinion polls • By constituency
2019
Opinion polls • By constituency
2021
Opinion polls • By constituency
Next election
Opinion polls
Evolution of voting intentions according to polls conducted during the pre-campaign period of the 45th Canadian federal election, graphed from the data in the table below. Trendlines are 30-poll local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and a logarithmic function of sample size. 95% confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the trendlines, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals.

Notes
  1. If the election is called prior to April 22, 2024, implementation of the redistribution will be deferred and the total number of seats will remain at 338.
  2. If the election is called prior to April 22, 2024, implementation of the redistribution will be deferred and the number of seats required for a majority will remain at 170.
  3. Includes Kevin Vuong, who appeared on the ballot as a Liberal but was disavowed by the party during the campaign. He has not been seated as a member of the Liberal caucus.
  4. Though parties registered with Elections Canada can field candidates in any riding they wish, the Bloc Québécois has never fielded candidates outside of Quebec (78 seats). Thus it is impossible for the party to gain a majority in Parliament.
  5. MP for Beauce until being unseated in the 2019 election. Contested the by-election in Portage–Lisgar, lost.
  6. While formal results show the Liberals winning or leading in 160 seats, those totals include Kevin Vuong, who was disavowed during the campaign by his party, and has since sat as an Independent in the House of Commons.

References
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  7. Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission for Ontario. "Redistribution process timeline in Ontario".
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  9. Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission. "Timeline for the Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts".
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