2010 Arizona gubernatorial election
The 2010 Arizona gubernatorial election was held on November 2, 2010, to elect the Governor of Arizona. Incumbent Republican Jan Brewer ran for a full term. Party primaries were held on August 24, 2010. Jan Brewer won a full term, defeating Arizona Attorney General and Democratic nominee Terry Goddard 54% to 42%.
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| Turnout | 55.65%  4.82pp [1] | ||||||||||||||||
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  Brewer: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Goddard: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Arizona |
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Background
Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano was term limited and nominated to become Secretary of Homeland Security by President-elect Barack Obama, and was confirmed by the United States Senate on January 20, 2009, resigning as governor the same day.[2] Since Arizona does not have a lieutenant governor, Republican Secretary of State Jan Brewer was first in the state's gubernatorial line of succession and was sworn in as governor upon Napolitano's resignation. Brewer announced on November 5, 2009, that she would seek a full term in 2010.[3]
Democratic primary
Declared
- Terry Goddard, State Attorney General,[4] former mayor of Phoenix, and nominee for governor in 1990
Declined
- Neil Giuliano, former mayor of Tempe
- Phil Gordon, Mayor of Phoenix
Republican primary
The primary to select the 2010 Republican nominee for governor of Arizona was held on August 24, 2010.[5][6]
Declared
- Jan Brewer, incumbent governor
Withdrew
- Dean Martin, Arizona State Treasurer (dropped out on July 9, 2010, and endorsed Brewer)[7]
- Owen Mills, member of the National Rifle Association of America Board of Directors (dropped out on July 13, 2010)[8]
Declined
- Joe Arpaio, Maricopa County Sheriff[9]
- J.D. Hayworth, former U.S. Representative
- John Munger, former chair of the Arizona Republican Party[10]
- Vernon Parker, Mayor of Paradise Valley (ran for Congress)
- Fife Symington, former Governor of Arizona[11]
Polling
| Poll source | Dates administered | Jan Brewer (inc.) | Dean Martin* | Buz Mills* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports | June 16, 2010 | 72% | 12% | 16% |
| Rasmussen Reports | May 17, 2010 | 45% | 18% | 18% |
| Public Policy Polling | April 23–25, 2010 | 25% | 15% | 11% |
| 58% | 16% | 19% | ||
| Rasmussen Reports | April 13, 2010 | 26% | 12% | 18% |
| Rasmussen Reports | March 15, 2010 | 20% | 21% | 19% |
| Rasmussen Reports | January 20, 2010 | 29% | 27% | — |
| Rasmussen Reports | November 18, 2009 | 10% | 22% | — |
| Public Policy Polling | September 21, 2009 | 39% | 26% | — |
- * Dropped out of race after entering to seek the nomination
Results
Results by county:
Brewer—80–90%
Brewer—70–80%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jan Brewer (Incumbent) | 479,153 | 81.53 | |
| Republican | Buz Mills* | 51,001 | 8.68 | |
| Republican | Dean Martin* | 36,012 | 6.13 | |
| Republican | Matthew Jette | 19,611 | 3.34 | |
| Republican | Write-in | 1,906 | 0.32 | |
| Total votes | 587,683 | 100 | ||
- * Dropped out prior to primary, but still appeared on ballot
Libertarian primary
Candidates
- Ronald Cavanaugh
- Barry Hess
- Bruce Olsen
- Alvin Ray Yount
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Barry Hess | 1,303 | 43.38 | |
| Libertarian | Bruce Olsen | 612 | 20.37 | |
| Libertarian | Ronald Cavanaugh | 547 | 18.21 | |
| Libertarian | Write-in | 299 | 9.95 | |
| Libertarian | Alvin Ray Yount | 243 | 8.09 | |
| Total votes | 3,004 | 100 | ||
General election
Candidates
- Jan Brewer (R), incumbent governor
- Terry Goddard (D), attorney general
- Barry Hess (L)
- Larry Gist (G)
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[12] | Likely R | October 14, 2010 |
| Rothenberg[13] | Lean R | October 28, 2010 |
| RealClearPolitics[14] | Lean R | November 1, 2010 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] | Likely R | October 28, 2010 |
| CQ Politics[16] | Lean R | October 28, 2010 |
Polling
| Poll source | Dates administered | Terry Goddard (D) | Jan Brewer (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports | October 28, 2010 | 39% | 53% |
| Public Policy Polling | October 23–24, 2010 | 44% | 52% |
| BRC Polls | October 11, 2010 | 35% | 38% |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 3, 2010 | 39% | 55% |
| Rasmussen Reports | September 7, 2010 | 38% | 60% |
| Rasmussen Reports | August 25, 2010 | 38% | 57% |
| Rasmussen Reports | July 21, 2010 | 37% | 56% |
| Rasmussen Reports | June 29, 2010 | 35% | 53% |
| Rasmussen Reports | May 17, 2010 | 39% | 52% |
| Rasmussen Reports | April 27, 2010 | 40% | 48% |
| Public Policy Polling | April 23–25, 2010 | 47% | 44% |
| Rasmussen Reports | April 14, 2010 | 40% | 44% |
| Rasmussen Reports | March 16, 2010 | 45% | 43% |
| Rasmussen Reports | January 20, 2010 | 43% | 42% |
| Rasmussen Reports | November 18, 2009 | 44% | 42% |
| Rasmussen Reports | September 27, 2009 | 42% | 40% |
| Public Policy Polling | September 7, 2009 | 46% | 36% |
Debate
On September 1, the first and only debate was held between all four candidates and moderated by Ted Simons. The debate drew national attention after Jan Brewer "stumbled and stammered" through her opening statements. Before the debate the governor had made several comments about there being beheadings in the desert. During the debate Terry Goddard tried to get the governor to admit that it was a false statement. Goddard said quote Jan I'm going to give you an opportunity to admit that was a false statement but of course the governor Steered clear of the question. After the debate reporters were demanding answers, and still she would just not answer the question.[17] After the debate, Brewer stated that she would do no more debates.[18][19]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Janice Kay Brewer (inc.) | 938,934 | 54.33% | +18.89% | |
| Democratic | Samuel Pearson Goddard III | 733,935 | 42.43% | -20.11% | |
| Libertarian | Barry Hess | 38,722 | 2.24% | +0.27% | |
| Green | Larry Gist | 16,128 | 0.93% | ||
| Write-ins | 362 | 0.02% | |||
| Majority | 204,999 | 11.86% | -15.28% | ||
| Turnout | 1,728,081 | ||||
| Republican hold | Swing | ||||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Cochise (Largest city: Seirra Vista)
- Gila (Largest city: Payson)
- Graham (Largest city: Safford)
- Greenlee (Largest city: Clifton)
- La Paz (Largest city: Parker)
- Maricopa (Largest city: Phoenix)
- Mohave (Largest city: Lake Havasu City)
- Navajo (Largest city: Show Low)
- Pinal (Largest city: San Tan Valley)
- Yavapai (Largest city: Prescott Valley)
- Yuma (Largest city: Yuma)
References
- "Voter Registration Statistics | Arizona Secretary of State". Retrieved May 7, 2023.
- "Governor: Napolitano resigns". The Arizona Guardian. January 20, 2009. Archived from the original on July 21, 2011. Retrieved September 2, 2010.
- Davenport, Paul (November 5, 2009). "Brewer running for full term as Ariz. governor". The Arizona Republic. Archived from the original on December 31, 2014. Retrieved February 18, 2010.
- "Terry Goddard for Governor – Arizona". Terrygoddard.org. August 17, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
- "Arizona Candidates List". Arizona SOS. August 3, 2010. Archived from the original on July 16, 2010. Retrieved August 3, 2010.
- "Arizona Gubernatorial Primary Results". Arizona SOS. August 24, 2010. Archived from the original on August 27, 2010. Retrieved August 27, 2010.
- Jessica Taylor. "Martin drops challenge to Brewer". Politico.Com. Archived from the original on August 1, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
- Jessica Taylor. "Mills drops campaign against Brewer". Politico.Com. Archived from the original on August 1, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
- Hensley, JJ (May 3, 2010). "Joe Arpaio won't run for Arizona governor". The Arizona Republic. Archived from the original on May 6, 2010.
- "Arizona Capitol Times " Blog Archive " Munger drops out of governor's race". Azcapitoltimes.com. Archived from the original on July 1, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
- Benson, Matthew; Newton, Casey; Mary Jo Pitzl (October 11, 2009). "Political Insider: Symington won't run in '10". The Arizona Republic. Archived from the original on February 18, 2010.
- "2010 Governors Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
- "Governor Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
- "2010 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
- "The Crystal Ball's Final Calls". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
- "Race Ratings Chart: Governor". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 5, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
- "Arizona governor stumbles during debate". NBC News.
- "Category: DC". Talking Points Memo.
- Services, Howard Fischer Capitol Media. "Brewer: No more debates – period". Arizona Daily Star.
- "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on September 20, 2013. Retrieved January 6, 2014.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
External links
- Elections at the Arizona Secretary of State
- Arizona Governor Candidates at Project Vote Smart
- Arizona Governor 2010 from OurCampaigns.com
- 2010 Arizona Governor General Election: Jan Brewer (R) vs Terry Goddard (D) graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
- Election 2010: Arizona Governor from Rasmussen Reports
- 2010 Arizona Governor Race from Real Clear Politics
- 2010 Arizona Governor's Race from CQ Politics
- Campaign contributions for 2010 Arizona Governor from Follow the Money
- Race Profile in The New York Times
- Debates
- Arizona Governor Debate, C-SPAN, September 1, 2010, full video (58:00)
- Official campaign sites
- Jan Brewer for Governor (Archived)
- Terry Goddard for Governor (Archived)
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