2026 Portuguese presidential election
The 2026 Portuguese presidential election will be held in January. This election will elect the successor of President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, as he is barred from running for a third term.
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Background and election procedure
Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa was re-elected in January 2021 with almost 61% of the votes on the first round. He took the oath of office on 9 March 2021, and continued the cohabitation with Socialist Prime Minister António Costa. In Portugal, the president is the head of state and has mostly ceremonial powers; however, the president has some political influence and can dissolve the Parliament of Portugal if a crisis occurs. The president also has an official residence in the Belém Palace in Lisbon.
To stand for election, candidates for the presidency each have to gather 7,500 signatures of support one month before the election, and submit them to the Constitutional Court of Portugal. Then, the Constitutional Court has to certify if the candidacies submitted meet the requirements to appear on the ballot. The highest number of candidacies ever accepted was ten, in 2016. Under Portuguese law, a candidate must receive a majority of votes (50% plus one vote) to be elected. If no candidate achieves a majority in the first round, a runoff election (i.e., second round, held between the two candidates who receive the most votes in the first round) has to be held.
Candidates
Declared
- Tim Vieira – businessman[1]
Publicly expressed interest
- Alexandra Leitão – former minister for the Modernization of the State and Public Administration (2019–2022);[2]
- André Ventura – incumbent leader of CHEGA (since 2019); presidential candidate in the previous election[3]
- Augusto Santos Silva – President of the Assembly of the Republic (since 2022); minister in the 14th, 17th, 18th, 21st, 22nd governments[4][5]
- Luís Marques Mendes – former Social Democratic Party (PSD) leader (2005–2007)[6][7]
- Pedro Santana Lopes – incumbent mayor of Figueira da Foz since 2021 (also in 1998–2002); former prime minister (2004–2005); former Social Democratic Party (PSD) leader (2004–2005)[8][9] (decision expected in mid 2024)[10]
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Potential
- Ana Gomes – former MEP of the Socialist Party (PS) (2014–2019); finished in second place in the previous presidential election[11]
- António Costa – secretary-general of the Socialist Party (PS) since 2014; incumbent prime minister since 2015[12][5]
- António Guterres – Secretary-General of the United Nations since 2017; former prime minister (1995–2002); former secretary-general of the Socialist Party (PS) (1992–2002)[7][13]
- António José Seguro – former secretary-general of the Socialist Party (PS) (2011–2014)[14]
- António Vitorino – former Minister of the Presidency and Defence (1995–1997) [15]
- Catarina Martins – former leader of the Left Bloc (2012–2023)[16]
- Fernando Medina – incumbent Minister of Finance (since 2022); former mayor of Lisbon (2015–2021)[5]
- Francisco Assis – former MEP of the Socialist Party (PS) (2004–2009; 2014–2019); former mayor of Amarante (1990–1995)[5]
- Francisco Louçã – former leader of the Left Bloc (BE) (1999–2012); candidate for the 2006 presidential election[11]
- Henrique Gouveia e Melo – chief of the Naval Staff since 2021; former coordinator of the COVID-19 Vaccination Plan Task Force (2021); former commander of the European Maritime Force (2017–2019); Portuguese Navy officer[17][18]
- João Cotrim de Figueiredo – former leader of the Liberal Initiative (IL) (2019–2023)[19]
- João Ferreira – former MEP of the Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) (2009–2021); presidential candidate in the previous election[20]
- José Castelo Branco – socialite[21]
- José Durão Barroso – former President of the European Commission (2004–2014); former prime minister (2002–2004); former Social Democratic Party (PSD) leader (1998–2004)[11][13][22]
- José Sócrates – former prime minister (2005–2011); former secretary-general of the Socialist Party (PS) (2004–2011)[23]
- Mariana Mortágua – Left Bloc (BE) leader since 2023[20]
- Mário Centeno – incumbent governor of the Bank of Portugal (since 2020); former President of the Eurogroup (2018–2020); former Minister of Finance (2015–2020)[5]
- Paulo Portas – former leader of CDS-People's Party (CDS-PP) (1998–2005, 2007–2016); deputy prime minister (2013–2015) and minister in the 15th, 16th, 19th and 20th governments[7][24]
- Paulo Raimundo – incumbent secretary-general of the Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) (since 2022);[25]
- Pedro Passos Coelho – former prime minister (2011–2015); former Social Democratic Party (PSD) leader (2010–2018)[7]
- Rui Moreira – incumbent mayor of Porto since 2013[7]
- Rui Rio – former Social Democratic Party (PSD) leader (2018–2022)[11]
- Tiago Mayan – incumbent President of the Parish of Aldoar, Foz do Douro e Nevogilde since 2021; presidential candidate in the previous election[11]
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Socialite
José Castelo Branco
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Opinion polling
Graphic summary
Polling
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
O/ U |
Lead | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ind. | PS | PSD | CDS | PSD | BE | BE | PS | CH | CDU | CDU | PS | IL | PSD | PS | Ind. | Ind. | Ind. | |||||
| Intercampus | 9–14 Sep 2023 | 614 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 15.8 | 3.9 | 6.0 | — | 5.5 | 1.5 | 9.0 | — | 2.0 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 14.8 | — | 3.9 | 2.0 | 9.3 | 1.0 |
| Intercampus | 3–6 Jul 2023 | 623 | 7.9 | 14.3 | 13.3 | 3.2 | 3.0 | — | 6.9 | 1.4 | 11.4 | — | 0.8 | 5.9 | 3.2 | — | 15.1 | — | 2.6 | 1.9 | 9.0 [lower-alpha 1] |
0.8 |
| Intercampus | 3–10 Feb 2023 | 602 | 10.0 | 10.6 | 15.8 | — | 3.8 | 4.3 | — | 3.8 | 9.5 | — | — | 6.0 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 13.5 | 4.7 | — | — | 10.2 [lower-alpha 2] |
2.3 |
| Intercampus [lower-alpha 3] |
15–20 Nov 2022 | 605 | 15.9 | 9.6 | 15.2 | 6.3 | 7.3 | 4.0 | — | 5.8 | 6.1 | 3.3 | — | 8.6 | 2.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 15.8 | 0.7 |
| Intercampus | 6–11 Jul 2022 | 605 | 31.7 | — | — | 10.9 | 10.4 | 7.8 | — | 7.8 | 6.1 | 3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.3 | 20.8 |
| — | — | — | 18.3 | 17.4 | 12.7 | — | 12.2 | — | 4.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 34.9 | 0.9 | |||
| — | 31.1 | — | 13.6 | 16.2 | 7.8 | — | — | — | 4.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 27.4 | 14.9 | |||
| — | — | 23.1 | — | 16.5 | 12.9 | — | 12.4 | — | 4.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 30.6 | 6.6 |
Preferred candidate
Poll results showing public opinion on who would be the best candidate for each political side, are shown in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first.
Center-right/Right
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
O/U | Lead | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSD | PSD | PSD | CH | CDS | Ind. | IL | |||||
| 14–18 Sep 2023 | Aximage | 804 | 19.8 | 19.5 | 13.0 | 11.3 | 11.2 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 12.2 | 0.3 |
Center-left/Left
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
O/U | Lead | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS | PS | Ind. | BE | PS | PS | CDU | |||||
| 14–18 Sep 2023 | Aximage | 804 | 34 | 19 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 15 |
Polling
The table below lists the evolution of public opinion on the President's performance in office.
| Polling firm |
Fieldwork date |
Sample size |
Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Approve | Disapprove | No opinion | Net | |||
| Aximage | 18–24 Oct 2023 | 805 | 44 | 34 | 22 | 10 |
| Aximage | 2–5 Oct 2023 | 601 | 34 | 30 | 36 | 4 |
| Intercampus | 9–14 Sep 2023 | 614 | 44.4 | 24.2 | 31.4 | 20.2 |
| Intercampus | 7–11 Aug 2023 | 607 | 50.1 | 21.0 | 28.9 | 29.1 |
| Aximage | 6–11 Jul 2023 | 800 | 53 | 27 | 20 | 26 |
| Intercampus | 3–6 Jul 2023 | 623 | 40.0 | 30.7 | 29.3 | 9.3 |
| Intercampus | 25–31 May 2023 | 611 | 37.5 | 32.4 | 30.1 | 5.1 |
| Aximage | 10–14 Apr 2023 | 805 | 44 | 37 | 19 | 7 |
| Intercampus | 6–12 Apr 2023 | 610 | 43.6 | 25.5 | 30.9 | 18.1 |
| Intercampus | 9–15 Mar 2023 | 613 | 45.6 | 26.8 | 27.6 | 18.8 |
| Intercampus | 3–10 Feb 2023 | 602 | 41.2 | 28.4 | 30.4 | 12.8 |
| Aximage | 10–14 Jan 2023 | 805 | 45 | 35 | 20 | 10 |
| Intercampus | 6–11 Jan 2023 | 605 | 46.8 | 26.3 | 27.0 | 20.5 |
| Pitagórica | 9–15 Dec 2022 | 828 | 63 | 32 | 5 | 31 |
| ICS/ISCTE | 3–15 Dec 2022 | 809 | 71 | 27 | 2 | 44 |
| Intercampus | 17–22 Oct 2022 | 607 | 45.0 | 26.3 | 28.7 | 18.7 |
| Aximage | 21–24 Sep 2022 | 810 | 49 | 25 | 26 | 24 |
| Intercampus | 9–15 Sep 2022 | 606 | 52.0 | 18.1 | 29.9 | 33.9 |
| Intercampus | 3–10 Aug 2022 | 605 | 56.5 | 16.9 | 26.6 | 39.6 |
| Pitagórica | 28 Jul–10 Aug 2022 | 828 | 64 | 31 | 5 | 33 |
| Intercampus | 6–11 Jul 2022 | 605 | 57.2 | 19.5 | 23.3 | 37.7 |
| Aximage | 5–10 Jul 2022 | 810 | 56 | 22 | 22 | 34 |
| Pitagórica | 21 Jun–4 Jul 2022 | 828 | 70 | 27 | 3 | 43 |
| Intercampus | 8–14 Jun 2022 | 611 | 60.9 | 13.8 | 25.3 | 47.1 |
| Intercampus | 7–15 May 2022 | 611 | 61.2 | 14.6 | 24.2 | 46.6 |
| Aximage | 12–18 Apr 2022 | 807 | 61 | 15 | 24 | 46 |
| Intercampus | 13–20 Aug 2021 | 612 | 62.3 | 12.8 | 24.9 | 49.5 |
| Eurosondagem | 26–29 Jul 2021 | 1,025 | 81.1 | 8.0 | 10.9 | 73.1 |
| Aximage | 10–12 Jul 2021 | 763 | 55 | 18 | 27 | 37 |
| Eurosondagem | 5–8 Jul 2021 | 1,022 | 80.8 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 71.1 |
| Aximage | 26–30 May 2021 | 796 | 70 | 10 | 20 | 60 |
| Eurosondagem | 10–13 May 2021 | 1,008 | 80.0 | 9.4 | 10.6 | 70.6 |
| Intercampus | 5–11 May 2021 | 610 | 69.0 | 11.1 | 19.9 | 57.9 |
| Aximage | 22–25 Apr 2021 | 830 | 71 | 10 | 19 | 61 |
| Intercampus | 7–13 Apr 2021 | 609 | 67.0 | 14.7 | 18.3 | 52.3 |
| ICS/ISCTE | 5–13 Apr 2021 | 802 | 79.9 | 7.3 | 12.8 | 72.6 |
| Eurosondagem | 5–8 Apr 2021 | 1,020 | 75.1 | 4.8 | 20.1 | 70.3 |
| Aximage | 24–27 Mar 2021 | 830 | 72 | 17 | 11 | 55 |
| Intercampus | 4–10 Mar 2021 | 615 | 69.3 | 10.2 | 20.5 | 59.1 |
Notes
- António José Seguro (PS) - 2.7%; Others/Neither/Would not vote - 6.3%:
- Francisco Assis - 0.5%; Others/Neither/Would not vote - 9.7%:
- Voters were asked which candidate they prefer.
References
- "Tim Vieira anuncia candidatura a Belém. Quer "começar a criar uma visão para o país"". Diário de Notícias (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-08-31.
- Cunha, Mariana Lima. "Esquerda procura candidata a Belém e pensa em Alexandra Leitão, que admite "interesse" em "entendimentos alargados"". Observador (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-10-16.
- Antunes, André Filipe. "Presidenciais de 2026. André Ventura assume que pode ser candidato se Santos Silva e Marques Mendes avançarem". Observador (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-08-31.
- Duarte, José Carlos. ""Nunca digas nunca" e "futuro a Deus pertence." Santos Silva não descarta candidatar-se à Presidência da República". Observador (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2022-03-31.
- "O que Medina nos anda a esconder". Jornal Expresso (in European Portuguese). 21 April 2022. Retrieved 2022-04-21.
- PÚBLICO (2023-08-27). "Marques Mendes admite candidatar-se à Presidência da República". PÚBLICO (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-08-31.
- “Exclusivo Palácio de Belém, 2026. Os possíveis inquilinos que se seguem”, Diário de Notícias (October 25, 2020).
- ""Não me excluo de nada". Santana Lopes antevê presidenciais de 2026". ZAP Notícias (in European Portuguese). 2020-10-02. Retrieved 2021-11-18.
- Figueiredo, Inês André. "Santana Lopes candidato a Presidente da República? "Não vejo no centro-direita ninguém com melhor currículo do que eu"". Observador (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-08-31.
- ECO (2023-08-30). "Santana Lopes atira decisão de concorrer às presidenciais para o meio de 2024". ECO (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-08-31.
- "Sondagem TVI/CNN: Gouveia e Melo, Costa e Passos Coelho são os candidatos presidenciais com maior potencial. Sócrates e Jerónimo no fim da tabela". CNN Portugal (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2022-07-18.
- “Costa prepara Legislativas a pensar nas Presidenciais de 2026? Há quem aposte nisso”, Observador (June 11, 2018).
- "Serão Guterres e Barroso presidenciáveis?". Jornal SOL (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-06-15.
- Lopes, Ana Sá (9 May 2023). "António José Seguro já não exclui regressar à política". PÚBLICO (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-05-10.
- Antunes, Mariana Lima Cunha, Rui Pedro. "Vitorino, que já foi o favorito de Costa para Belém, não entusiasma PS". Observador (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-05-27.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) - Cunha, Mariana Lima. "Catarina Martins não vai para a "reforma". Partido admite apostar na líder cessante para Europeias ou Presidenciais". Observador (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-06-15.
- "Candidatura à Presidência da República? Gouveia e Melo diz que daria um péssimo político". SIC Notícias (in European Portuguese). Archived from the original on 2021-12-08. Retrieved 2021-12-08.
- Portugal, Rádio e Televisão de (16 December 2021). "Vice-Almirante Gouveia e Melo não exclui candidatura a Belém". Vice-Almirante Gouveia e Melo não exclui candidatura a Belém (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2021-12-16.
- "Almirante Gouveia e Melo à frente de Pedro Passos Coelho na corrida à presidência da República". www.cmjornal.pt (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2022-11-26.
- "Almirante Gouveia e Melo bate políticos na corrida à Presidência". www.cmjornal.pt (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2022-07-15.
- "José Castelo Branco: "Se calhar tenho que me candidatar à Presidência da República"". Holofote (in European Portuguese). 2022-01-16. Retrieved 2022-09-04.
- "Marcelo deita o país no divã e lança mais um candidato a Belém". www.dn.pt (in European Portuguese). 21 December 2022. Retrieved 2022-12-22.
- "Sócrates diz que "mentiras caíram", promete defender-se e avisa ter "muito a dizer", Jornal de Negócios (April 9, 2021).
- ZAP (2020-10-11). "Portas não quer Câmara de Lisboa. Já está de olho nas presidenciais de 2026". ZAP Notícias (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2022-01-11.
- "Eleições presidenciais". www.cmjornal.pt (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-07-11.
External links
- Official results site, Portuguese Justice Ministry
- Portuguese Electoral Commission
- ERC – Official publication of polls
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