2023 United States gubernatorial elections

United States gubernatorial elections are scheduled to be held on November 7, 2023, in the states of Kentucky and Mississippi, with an election having occurred in Louisiana on October 14. In addition, special elections may take place (depending on state law) if other gubernatorial seats are vacated. These elections form part of the 2023 United States elections. The last regular gubernatorial elections for all three states were in 2019.

For related races, see 2023 United States elections.
2023 United States gubernatorial elections
November 7, 2023
October 14 (Louisiana)
3 governorships
  Majority party Minority party
 
Party Republican Democratic
Seats before 26 24
Seats after 27 23
Seat change Increase 1 Decrease 1
Seats up 1 2
     Democratic incumbent
     Republican incumbent      Republican gain

In Louisiana, term-limited incumbent John Bel Edwards will be succeeded by Jeff Landry, flipping the seat from Democratic to Republican control.

Partisan composition

Going into the election, there are 26 Republican governors and 24 Democratic governors in the United States. This class of governors is made up of 1 Republican and 2 Democrats. Democrats are defending two governorships in states Donald Trump won in 2020 (Kentucky and Louisiana).

Election predictions

Several sites and individuals published predictions of competitive seats. These predictions looked at factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan leanings of the state (reflected in part by the state's Cook Partisan Voting Index rating). The predictions assigned ratings to each seat, with the rating indicating a party's predicted advantage in winning that seat.

Most election predictors use:

  • "tossup": no advantage
  • "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
  • "lean": slight advantage
  • "likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage
  • "safe" or "solid": near-certain chance of victory
State PVI Incumbent Last
race		 Cook
October 23,
2023[1]		 IE
September 1,
2023[2]		 Sabato
October 16,
2023[3]		 ED
July 12,
2023[4]
Kentucky R+16 Andy Beshear 49.2% D Lean D Tilt D Lean D Tossup
Louisiana R+12 John Bel Edwards
(term-limited)		 51.3% D Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Safe R (flip)
Mississippi R+11 Tate Reeves 51.9% R Lean R Lean R Likely R Safe R

Race summary
State Incumbent Party First elected Result Candidates
Kentucky Andy Beshear Democratic 2019 Running
Louisiana John Bel Edwards Democratic 2015 Incumbent term-limited.
New governor elected.
Republican gain.
  • ▌Green tickY Jeff Landry (Republican) 51.6%
  • ▌Shawn Wilson (Democratic) 25.9%
  • ▌Stephen Waguespack (Republican) 5.9%
  • ▌John Schroder (Republican) 5.3%
  • ▌Hunter Lundy (Independent) 4.9%
  • ▌Danny Cole (Democratic) 2.6%
  • ▌Sharon Hewitt (Republican) 1.7%
  • ▌Benjamin Barnes (Independent) 0.5%
  • ▌Patrick "Dat" Barthel (Republican) 0.4%
  • ▌Richard Nelson (Republican) 0.3%
  • ▌Jeffrey Istre (Independent) 0.3%
  • ▌Xavier Ellis (Republican) 0.2%
  • ▌Keitron Gagnon (Independent) 0.1%
  • ▌Xan John (Republican) 0.1%
  • ▌Frank Scurlock (Independent) 0.1%
Mississippi Tate Reeves Republican 2019 Running

Kentucky
Kentucky gubernatorial election
 
Nominee Andy Beshear Daniel Cameron
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate Jacqueline Coleman Robby Mills
Incumbent Governor

Andy Beshear
Democratic


Main article: 2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election

Governor Andy Beshear was elected in 2019 with 49.2% of the vote and is running for re-election to a second term.[5] He won the Democratic nomination with little opposition.

Attorney general Daniel Cameron, former US Ambassador to the UN Kelly Craft, state auditor Mike Harmon, and agriculture commissioner Ryan Quarles all ran for the Republican gubernatorial nomination.[5] Cameron was supported by former president Donald Trump, and led every poll leading to the primary, with Craft and Quarles trailing behind him.[8] Cameron handily won the Republican nomination, becoming the first African American major party gubernatorial nominee in Kentucky's history.[9]

Louisiana
Main article: 2023 Louisiana gubernatorial election
2023 Louisiana gubernatorial election
October 14, 2023
Turnout35.8% Decrease
 
Candidate Jeff Landry Shawn Wilson
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 547,827 275,525
Percentage 51.6% 25.9%
 
Candidate Stephen Waguespack John Schroder
Party Republican Republican
Popular vote 62,287 56,654
Percentage 5.9% 5.3%
Landry:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Wilson:      40–50%      70–80%
Governor before election

John Bel Edwards
Democratic

 Elected Governor

Jeff Landry
Republican

Governor John Bel Edwards was re-elected to a second term in 2019 with 51.3% of the vote. He is term-limited by the Louisiana Constitution in 2023, and cannot seek reelection for a third consecutive term.

Louisiana utilizes a jungle primary system. Republican Attorney General Jeff Landry was considered the frontrunner. Other candidates included state senator Sharon Hewitt, and Treasurer John Schroder. Democratic Secretary of Transportation Shawn Wilson also ran to succeed Edwards.[10][11]

Landry won with over 51% of the vote in the primary, becoming the first person to win a Louisiana gubernatorial election without a runoff since Bobby Jindal in 2011. Landry easily prevailed over several Republican opponents and the leading Democratic candidate.[12]

Mississippi
Mississippi gubernatorial election
 
Nominee Tate Reeves Brandon Presley
Party Republican Democratic
Incumbent Governor

Tate Reeves
Republican


Main article: 2023 Mississippi gubernatorial election

Governor Tate Reeves was elected in 2019 with 51.9% of the vote and is running for re-election to a second term.[13]

Democrat Brandon Presley, Mississippi Public Service Commissioner for the Northern District, is the Democratic nominee to challenge Reeves.[14]

See also

References
  1. "2024 CPR Governor Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2023-07-23.
  2. Washington, Inside Elections 810 7th Street NE; Developers, DC 20002 Phone:546-2822 Email · Subscriptions API for. "Gubernatorial Ratings". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2023-07-23.
  3. "2024 Governor – Sabato's Crystal Ball". Retrieved 2023-07-23.
  4. "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. 2023-07-22. Retrieved 2023-07-23.
  5. "Election Candidate Filings - Governor". web.sos.ky.gov. Retrieved May 3, 2023.
  6. Duvall, Tessa (November 22, 2022). "Here's the complete list of candidates running for Kentucky governor in 2023". Lexington Herald Leader. Retrieved November 24, 2022.
  7. "Candidate qualifying deadline passes and reveals slate of 2023 statewide candidates". www.wlbt.com. February 1, 2022. Retrieved February 2, 2023.
  8. "Trump endorses Cameron's bid for governor in Kentucky". spectrumnews1.com. Retrieved April 6, 2023.
  9. "Daniel Cameron wins Republican primary for Kentucky governor". CBS News. May 16, 2023. Retrieved May 17, 2023.
  10. Karlin, Sam (9 January 2023). "Billy Nungesser to announce he's not running for governor, will seek re-election". The Advocate. Retrieved 11 January 2023.
  11. Doyle, Matt (November 19, 2019). "2023 Governor's race could be packed with GOP heavy hitters". Louisiana Radio Network. Louisiana Farm Bureau Federation. Retrieved November 29, 2020.
  12. Montellaro, Zach (October 14, 2023). "Landry wins Louisiana governor's race, flipping state red". Politico. Retrieved October 14, 2023.
  13. Reily, Ross (January 3, 2023). "Mississippi Republican Gov. Tate Reeves files for reelection bid". Clarion Ledger.
  14. Hernandez, Rachel (2023-01-12). "Brandon Presley joins race for Mississippi governor". WKRG. Retrieved 2023-01-12.
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