2022 Bulgarian parliamentary election

The 2021 Bulgarian general election in November saw We Continue the Change (PP) achieve a surprise victory,[2] receiving 25% of the vote. Led by Kiril Petkov and Asen Vasilev, the PP formed a coalition government with BSP for Bulgaria (BSPzB), There Is Such a People (ITN) and Democratic Bulgaria (DB). This broke the deadlock that had arisen as a result of the previous two parliamentary elections, after which no party was able to form a government.[3]

On 8 June 2022, ITN withdrew from the government, citing disagreements over the state budget, fiscal policy and the lifting of Bulgaria's veto on opening EU accession talks with North Macedonia. On 22 June, the government was defeated in a no confidence vote tabled by GERB and supported by DPS, ITN and Revival.

The 240 members of the National Assembly are elected by open list proportional representation from 31 multi-member constituencies ranging in size from 4 to 16 seats. The electoral threshold is 4% for parties, with seats allocated according to the largest remainder method.[4][5]

The table below lists the political party groups represented in the 47th National Assembly.

Graphical representation of recalculated data

Local regression of polls conducted

The opinion poll results below were recalculated from the original data and exclude polls that chose "I will not vote" or "I am uncertain" options.

As per the Bulgarian Constitution, the Bulgarian President Rumen Radev is required to hand a mandate for government formation to the largest party. If they don't propose a government within seven days, or if that government is rejected by the Bulgarian Parliament, President Radev will hand the second mandate to the second largest party. If the second mandate also doesn't produce a government, the president will grant a third mandate to a party of his choice. If no government is approved by Parliament after all three mandates have been returned, new elections will be scheduled. Neither GERB nor PP, the first and second largest party respectively, are expected to be able to form a stable government.[8]

Following the election, GERB leader Boyko Borisov, who had served as prime minister for most of the time between 2009 and 2021, announced that he was not interested in a cabinet position or returning to the post of prime minister, stating that "now is not the right time for dominance, but for seeking unity." Borisov's previous government had been the subject of the 2020–2021 Bulgarian protests over corruption allegations,[9] the effects of which had been felt through all of the legislative snap elections held since that point. He stated that GERB was open to coalition talks with any party or coalition in the legislature, even ones that had generally opposed him and GERB, and sought party experts to seek common ground on main issues, including the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, the 2021–2022 inflation surge, joining the eurozone, and becoming part of the Schengen Area.[10]

The National Assembly remained fragmented, and no party was able to form a governing coalition.[11] GERB and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) did not have a majority, holding only 103 of the 121 seats needed. Bulgarian Rise (BV) and Revival, which held a combined 39 seats, are considered Eurosceptic and sympathetic to Russia,[12] similarly to the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) with 25 seats. Although generally pro-EU, the remaining parties and alliances with seats opposed Boyko Borisov's past government and refused any possibility of a coalition with GERB due to disagreements over corruption.[13]

On 18 October, Borisov announced that his attempts to broker a coalition government prior to the first sitting of the new Assembly were unsuccessful.[14] The following day, the Assembly failed to elect a speaker during its first meeting, the first time this ever occurred. After multiple failed attempts, the Assembly elected its oldest member, the GERB MP Vezhdi Rashidov, as speaker on 21 October, after he was nominated by Korneliya Ninova, the leader of BSP, as a consensus candidate.[15][16] The gridlock to form a new government persisted throughout October and November 2022 and before a first or second mandate was given, President Rumen Radev stated that he would delay handing over the third mandate for government formation until after the New Year so as to delay elections until March 2023 and avoid the most difficult winter period.[17]

On 2 December, Radev stated that he would hand the government mandate to the election's winner GERB the following Monday. On 5 December, Radev granted the first mandate to GERB's nominee, Nikolay Gabrovski. One week later, on 12 December, Gabrovski proposed a new government.[18] His prime ministership was rejected by Parliament (113 for, 125 against, 2 absent) two days later on 14 December, with MPs from the DPS and BV voting in favour alongside GERB.[19] On January 3rd, Radev gave the second mandate to PP's candidate, Nikolai Denkov,[20] but his prime ministership was also rejected by Parliament (63 for, 84 against, 30 abstain, 63 absent).[21] Radev gave the third mandate to Ninova, although she rejected to form a government in a deadlocked parliament.[22] Observers already pointed at an unprecedented fourth snap election to be held in 2023, as no new government could be formed.[23][24]