2004 United States Senate election in Indiana
The 2004 United States Senate election in Indiana was held on November 2, 2004. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Evan Bayh won re-election to a second term. As of 2023, this was the last time the Democrats have won the Class 3 Senate seat from Indiana. Bayh won 86 of the state's 92 counties.
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 County results Bayh: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Scott: 40–50% 50–60% | |||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Indiana |
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Major candidates
Democratic
- Evan Bayh, incumbent U.S. Senator
Republican
- Marvin Scott, Professor at Butler University and nominee for IN-10 in 1994
General Election
Campaign
In September, Bayh had $6.5 million cash on hand.[1] Scott's strategy of trying to paint Bayh as too liberal failed to gain traction.[2]
In early 2004, Bayh was considered a serious contender for the Vice Presidency as the running mate of Massachusetts Senator John Kerry. Although Bayh was on the final shortlist, North Carolina Senator John Edwards was ultimately chosen instead.[3]
Bayh easily won reelection, defeating Scott by more than 24 percentage points and carrying all but six counties, even while Kerry lost the state by more than 20 percentage points in the concurrent presidential election.
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[4] | Safe D | November 1, 2004 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Evan Bayh (D) |
Marvin Scott (R) |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | October 27–29, 2004 | 586 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 61% | 34% | 5% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Evan Bayh (incumbent) | 1,496,976 | 61.65% | ||
| Republican | Marvin Scott | 903,913 | 37.23% | ||
| Libertarian | Albert Barger | 27,344 | 1.13% | ||
| Total votes | 2,428,233 | 100.0% | |||
| Democratic hold | |||||
By county
Bayh won 86 of Indiana's counties compared to 6 for Scott.[6]
| County | Bayh | Votes | Scott | Votes | Barger | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adams | 57.4% | 7,551 | 41.6% | 5,476 | 1.0% | 126 | 13,153 |
| Allen | 57.8% | 74,011 | 41.3% | 52,845 | 0.9% | 1,126 | 127,982 |
| Bartholomew | 58.4% | 16,507 | 40.4% | 11,422 | 1.1% | 316 | 28,245 |
| Benton | 63.0% | 2,501 | 35.3% | 1,400 | 1.7% | 69 | 3,970 |
| Blackford | 69.1% | 3,694 | 30.1% | 1,609 | 0.8% | 42 | 5,345 |
| Boone | 48.8% | 11,074 | 50.0% | 11,343 | 1.1% | 255 | 22,672 |
| Brown | 59.7% | 4,336 | 38.6% | 2,803 | 1.7% | 125 | 7,264 |
| Carroll | 59.7% | 5,067 | 39.3% | 3,331 | 1.0% | 85 | 8,483 |
| Cass | 56.8% | 7,873 | 42.1% | 5,829 | 1.1% | 159 | 13,861 |
| Clark | 62.8% | 26,054 | 36.4% | 15,091 | 0.9% | 368 | 41,513 |
| Clay | 64.9% | 6,928 | 34.0% | 3,629 | 1.0% | 112 | 10,669 |
| Clinton | 56.3% | 6,600 | 42.8% | 5,011 | 0.9% | 108 | 11,719 |
| Crawford | 63.6% | 2,832 | 35.3% | 1,572 | 1.1% | 47 | 4,451 |
| Daviess | 56.4% | 5,891 | 42.6% | 4,447 | 1.0% | 107 | 10,445 |
| Dearborn | 45.7% | 9,264 | 52.7% | 10,675 | 1.5% | 311 | 20,250 |
| Decatur | 61.3% | 6,173 | 37.8% | 3,808 | 0.9% | 88 | 10,069 |
| DeKalb | 56.2% | 8,529 | 43.0% | 6,523 | 0.9% | 132 | 15,184 |
| Delaware | 69.5% | 32,312 | 29.3% | 13,627 | 1.2% | 580 | 46,519 |
| Dubois | 66.2% | 11,166 | 33.0% | 5,560 | 0.8% | 136 | 16,862 |
| Elkhart | 51.2% | 31,186 | 47.9% | 29,168 | 0.9% | 546 | 60,900 |
| Fayette | 64.0% | 5,961 | 34.5% | 3,212 | 1.4% | 134 | 9,307 |
| Floyd | 62.1% | 20,898 | 36.9% | 12,412 | 1.0% | 332 | 33,642 |
| Fountain | 60.1% | 4,532 | 39.2% | 2,955 | 0.8% | 60 | 7,547 |
| Franklin | 53.5% | 5,247 | 44.8% | 4,395 | 1.7% | 171 | 9,813 |
| Fulton | 60.7% | 5,264 | 38.3% | 3,324 | 1.0% | 91 | 8,679 |
| Gibson | 69.6% | 10,110 | 29.5% | 4,289 | 0.9% | 129 | 14,528 |
| Grant | 61.4% | 16,620 | 37.6% | 10,189 | 0.9% | 256 | 27,065 |
| Greene | 64.7% | 8,336 | 34.2% | 4,402 | 1.1% | 137 | 12,875 |
| Hamilton | 46.4% | 48,001 | 52.6% | 54,408 | 0.9% | 970 | 103,379 |
| Hancock | 52.3% | 14,548 | 46.6% | 12,941 | 1.1% | 309 | 27,798 |
| Harrison | 59.0% | 10,094 | 39.9% | 6,824 | 1.1% | 180 | 17,098 |
| Hendricks | 48.0% | 24,844 | 51.1% | 26,441 | 0.9% | 486 | 51,771 |
| Henry | 62.6% | 12,666 | 36.1% | 7,312 | 1.3% | 254 | 20,232 |
| Howard | 58.9% | 21,732 | 40.1% | 14,776 | 1.0% | 368 | 36,876 |
| Huntington | 52.8% | 8,125 | 46.2% | 7,103 | 1.0% | 160 | 15,388 |
| Jackson | 62.2% | 10,071 | 36.7% | 5,944 | 1.1% | 171 | 16,186 |
| Jasper | 49.2% | 5,727 | 49.6% | 5,772 | 1.1% | 130 | 11,629 |
| Jay | 63.5% | 5,117 | 35.3% | 2,845 | 1.2% | 94 | 8,056 |
| Jefferson | 61.4% | 7,794 | 37.5% | 4,764 | 1.1% | 142 | 12,700 |
| Jennings | 60.9% | 6,349 | 37.9% | 3,944 | 1.2% | 125 | 10,418 |
| Johnson | 53.2% | 27,149 | 45.8% | 23,330 | 1.0% | 506 | 50,985 |
| Knox | 71.5% | 11,130 | 27.5% | 4,275 | 1.0% | 155 | 15,560 |
| Kosciusko | 45.7% | 12,554 | 53.0% | 14,574 | 1.3% | 369 | 27,497 |
| LaGrange | 54.3% | 4,865 | 44.7% | 4,006 | 1.0% | 90 | 8,961 |
| Lake | 71.4% | 130,450 | 27.3% | 49,919 | 1.3% | 2,320 | 182,689 |
| LaPorte | 69.7% | 28,826 | 28.3% | 11,685 | 2.0% | 840 | 41,351 |
| Lawrence | 52.4% | 9,132 | 46.2% | 8,064 | 1.4% | 242 | 17,438 |
| Madison | 64.3% | 34,379 | 34.7% | 18,541 | 1.0% | 524 | 53,444 |
| Marion | 66.0% | 210,107 | 33.0% | 104,819 | 1.0% | 3,047 | 317,973 |
| Marshall | 57.5% | 10,111 | 41.5% | 7,293 | 1.0% | 174 | 17,578 |
| Martin | 66.7% | 3,297 | 32.1% | 1,587 | 1.2% | 58 | 5,058 |
| Miami | 54.5% | 7,339 | 44.3% | 5,967 | 1.2% | 168 | 13,474 |
| Monroe | 68.9% | 33,821 | 29.3% | 14,396 | 1.8% | 880 | 49,097 |
| Montgomery | 59.9% | 8,651 | 39.0% | 5,635 | 1.1% | 159 | 14,445 |
| Morgan | 50.1% | 12,878 | 48.7% | 12,498 | 1.2% | 313 | 25,689 |
| Newton | 55.7% | 3,225 | 42.7% | 2,475 | 1.6% | 91 | 5,791 |
| Noble | 57.0% | 8,853 | 42.0% | 6,527 | 1.0% | 160 | 15,540 |
| Ohio | 54.4% | 1,572 | 44.3% | 1,282 | 1.3% | 37 | 2,891 |
| Orange | 61.1% | 5,056 | 37.8% | 3,127 | 1.1% | 89 | 8,272 |
| Owen | 60.5% | 4,538 | 38.0% | 2,851 | 1.5% | 114 | 7,503 |
| Parke | 65.9% | 4,480 | 33.0% | 2,249 | 1.1% | 78 | 6,807 |
| Perry | 71.6% | 5,790 | 27.6% | 2,234 | 0.8% | 62 | 8,086 |
| Pike | 69.8% | 4,209 | 29.3% | 1,765 | 1.0% | 59 | 6,033 |
| Porter | 63.9% | 39,876 | 34.3% | 21,411 | 1.9% | 1,159 | 62,446 |
| Posey | 69.0% | 8,052 | 30.2% | 3,523 | 0.8% | 88 | 11,663 |
| Pulaski | 59.1% | 3,328 | 39.7% | 2,236 | 1.2% | 65 | 5,629 |
| Putnam | 59.1% | 7,683 | 39.9% | 5,185 | 1.0% | 134 | 13,002 |
| Randolph | 61.9% | 6,625 | 36.8% | 3,943 | 1.2% | 133 | 10,701 |
| Ripley | 53.3% | 6,212 | 45.3% | 5,282 | 1.4% | 168 | 11,662 |
| Rush | 58.7% | 4,316 | 40.2% | 2,962 | 1.1% | 83 | 7,361 |
| Saint Joseph | 70.0% | 75,340 | 29.2% | 31,372 | 0.8% | 886 | 107,598 |
| Scott | 70.7% | 6,070 | 28.3% | 2,435 | 1.0% | 85 | 8,590 |
| Shelby | 56.7% | 8,986 | 42.4% | 6,717 | 0.9% | 136 | 15,839 |
| Spencer | 65.7% | 6,495 | 33.6% | 3,317 | 0.7% | 74 | 9,886 |
| Starke | 67.8% | 6,108 | 30.6% | 2,762 | 1.6% | 142 | 9,012 |
| Steuben | 58.7% | 7,447 | 40.0% | 5,070 | 1.3% | 169 | 12,686 |
| Sullivan | 73.6% | 6,072 | 25.4% | 2,099 | 1.0% | 79 | 8,250 |
| Switzerland | 59.6% | 2,148 | 38.9% | 1,404 | 1.5% | 53 | 3,605 |
| Tippecanoe | 63.5% | 32,766 | 34.9% | 18,002 | 1.6% | 837 | 51,605 |
| Tipton | 58.5% | 4,557 | 40.4% | 3,142 | 1.1% | 87 | 7,786 |
| Union | 54.6% | 1,777 | 43.6% | 1,417 | 1.8% | 58 | 3,252 |
| Vanderburgh | 67.6% | 46,088 | 31.2% | 21,242 | 1.2% | 817 | 68,147 |
| Vermillion | 78.0% | 5,468 | 21.1% | 1,480 | 0.9% | 66 | 7,014 |
| Vigo | 75.3% | 29,828 | 23.5% | 9,307 | 1.2% | 492 | 39,627 |
| Wabash | 51.6% | 6,853 | 47.5% | 6,313 | 0.8% | 111 | 13,277 |
| Warren | 61.1% | 2,357 | 37.7% | 1,454 | 1.2% | 48 | 3,859 |
| Warrick | 62.2% | 15,572 | 37.0% | 9,260 | 0.8% | 205 | 25,037 |
| Washington | 58.4% | 6,270 | 40.1% | 4,304 | 1.5% | 156 | 10,730 |
| Wayne | 58.5% | 16,081 | 39.4% | 10,821 | 2.1% | 584 | 27,486 |
| Wells | 53.5% | 6,532 | 45.7% | 5,583 | 0.8% | 103 | 12,218 |
| White | 64.4% | 6,667 | 34.6% | 3,589 | 1.0% | 108 | 10,364 |
| Whitley | 55.6% | 7,405 | 43.3% | 5,761 | 1.1% | 146 | 13,312 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Dearborn (largest city: Lawrenceburg)
- Jasper (largest city: Rennselaer)
See also
Notes
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
References
- http://0-infoweb.newsbank.com/iw-search/we/InfoWeb?p_product=NewsBank&p_theme=aggregated5&p_action=doc&p_docid=1053DC1A4A663CC3&p_docnum=4&p_queryname=29
- http://0-infoweb.newsbank.com/iw-search/we/InfoWeb?p_product=NewsBank&p_theme=aggregated5&p_action=doc&p_docid=10C85E772BA661DD&p_docnum=3&p_queryname=23
- "Evan Bayh: The New Perennial Bridesmaid?". The New York Observer. August 19, 2008.
- "The Final Predictions". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved May 2, 2021.
- "United States Senator". Indiana of Secretary of State. November 2, 2004. Retrieved November 8, 2008.
- "United States Senator by County". Indiana Secretary of State. November 2, 2004. Retrieved November 8, 2008.
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