2016 United States Senate election in Alaska

The 2016 United States Senate election in Alaska was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Alaska, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

See also: 2016 United States Senate elections

2016 United States Senate election in Alaska
November 8, 2016
 
Nominee Lisa Murkowski Joe Miller
Party Republican Libertarian
Popular vote 138,149 90,825
Percentage 44.36% 29.16%
 
Nominee Margaret Stock Ray Metcalfe
Party Independent Democratic
Popular vote 41,194 36,200
Percentage 13.23% 11.62%

Murkowski:      20–30%      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Miller:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
Stock:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Metcalfe:      20–30%      30–40%
Tie%/No Votes:      20–30%      30–40%      40–50%      N/A
U.S. senator before election

Lisa Murkowski
Republican

 Elected U.S. Senator

Lisa Murkowski
Republican

Elections in Alaska
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Incumbent Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski won re-election to a third term in office.[1] The primaries were held on August 16.[2] She was challenged by several candidates, including Democrat Ray Metcalfe, a former Republican state legislator; Independent Margaret Stock, an attorney; and Libertarian Joe Miller, who had defeated Murkowski for the Republican nomination six years before.[3]

Murkowski was re-elected with 44.4% of the vote, becoming the first person in history to win three elections to the U.S. Senate with pluralities but not majorities, having taken 48.6% in 2004 and 39.5% in 2010.[4] Miller's 29.2% finish was then the best ever for a Libertarian candidate in a U.S. Senate election in terms of vote percentage.[lower-alpha 1] This record was surpassed four years later by Ricky Dale Harrington Jr., who received 33.4% of the vote in the 2020 Arkansas Senate election, which had no Democratic candidate. This was also the first U.S. Senate election where four candidates received more than 10% of the vote since the 1942 Minnesota race, as well as being the first Senate race since then where the Democratic nominee finished fourth.

Background

After Republican U.S. Senator Frank Murkowski was elected Governor of Alaska in 2002, he appointed his daughter Lisa to the Senate to replace him. She was elected to a full term in 2004 but was defeated in the Republican primary in 2010 by Tea Party challenger Joe Miller.[6] She ran as a write-in candidate in the general election and was re-elected to a second full term with 39.5% of the vote to Miller's 35.5% and Democratic nominee Scott McAdams' 23.5%.[7][8] She is one of only two U.S. Senators to be elected via write-in votes, the other being Strom Thurmond in 1954.[9]

Republican primary

As Murkowski was defeated in the Republican primary in 2010, it had been speculated that she would be challenged from the right again in 2016.[10][11]

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements
Lisa Murkowski
Governors
U.S. Senators
Bob Lochner

Results
Republican primary results[30]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Lisa Murkowski (incumbent) 39,545 71.52%
Republican Bob Lochner 8,480 15.34%
Republican Paul Kendall 4,272 7.73%
Republican Thomas Lamb 2,996 5.42%
Total votes 55,293 100.00%

Democratic–Libertarian–Independence primary

Candidates from the Alaska Democratic Party, Alaska Libertarian Party and Alaskan Independence Party appear on the same ballot, with the highest-placed candidate from each party receiving that party's nomination.

Declared

Removed

Declined

Declared
  • Cean Stevens, small business owner, nominee for the state house in 2014 and Republican nominee for the state house in 2012[12][36]

Results
Primary results[30]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Ray Metcalfe 15,228 50.06%
Democratic Edgar Blatchford 10,090 33.17%
Libertarian Cean Stevens 5,102 16.77%
Total votes 30,420 100.00%

Subsequent events

Cean Stevens was originally the only Libertarian to file, and was the sole Libertarian in the primary. Stevens withdrew after winning the nomination, and the Alaska Libertarian Party nominated Joe Miller as her replacement.[3]

Third party and independent candidates

Declared
  • Breck Craig (Independent)[37]
  • Ted Gianoutsos (Independent), founder of the Veterans Party of Alaska and perennial candidate[37]
  • Margaret Stock (Independent), attorney and retired Army Lt. Colonel[38][37]

Failed to qualify
  • Sid Hill (Independent)[37]
  • Bruce Walden (Veterans Party), retired army sergeant and Republican candidate for the state house in 2006[37][39][40][29]
  • Jed Whittaker (Independent), commercial fisherman, Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in 1992 and Green Party nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1996[37][41]

Declined

General election

Debates

Fundraising
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Lisa Murkowski (R)[44]$6,058,418$7,055,457$91,119
Ray Metcalfe (D)[45]$20,865$13,147$7,718
Margaret Stock (I)[46]$740,769$738,918$1,850
Joe Miller (L)[47]$122$445$99,402

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[48] Likely R November 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[49] Safe R November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[50] Safe R November 3, 2016
Daily Kos[51] Safe R November 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics[52] Safe R November 7, 2016

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Lisa
Murkowski (R)		 Joe
Miller (L)		 Ray
Metcalfe (D)		 Margaret
Stock (I)		 Other Undecided
Moore Information Archived 2016-10-08 at the Wayback Machine October 5–6, 2016 500 ± 4.0% 49% 16% 9% 8% 1% 15%
Alaska Survey Research September 28 – October 2, 2016 660 ± 3.8% 50% 18% 12% 7% 2% 11%
Moore Information Archived 2016-10-08 at the Wayback Machine September 13–15, 2016 500 ±4.0% 48% 15% 15% 7% 1% 12%
Moore Information (R-Murkowski) August 27–29, 2016 500 ± 4.0% 56% — 12% 5% 10%[53] 17%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Lisa
Murkowski (R)		 Ray
Metcalfe (D)		 Undecided
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 409 ± 4.6% 55% 33% 12%
SurveyMonkey October 31 – November 6, 2016 382 ± 4.6% 57% 32% 11%
SurveyMonkey October 27 – November 2, 2016 303 ± 4.6% 60% 25% 15%
SurveyMonkey October 28 – November 3, 2016 334 ± 4.6% 56% 30% 14%
SurveyMonkey October 26 – November 1, 2016 268 ± 4.6% 60% 22% 18%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016 300 ± 4.6% 57% 26% 22%

Endorsements
Lisa Murkowski (R)
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Joe Miller (L)
Individuals
  • Amy Demboski, Anchorage Assemblywoman and candidate for Mayor of Anchorage in 2015[58]
  • Paul Kendall, Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016[59]
  • Tom Lamb, Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016[59]
  • Bob Lochner, Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016[59]
  • Mark Levin, host of The Mark Levin Show[60]
Organizations
Margaret Stock (I)
Individuals
Organizations
  • The Centrist Project[66]

Results
2016 United States Senate election in Alaska[67]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Lisa Murkowski (incumbent) 138,149 44.36% +8.87%
Libertarian Joe Miller 90,825 29.16% +28.59%
Independent Margaret Stock 41,194 13.23% N/A
Democratic Ray Metcalfe 36,200 11.62% −11.84%
Independent Breck A. Craig 2,609 0.84% N/A
Independent Ted Gianoutsos 1,758 0.56% N/A
Write-in 706 0.23% −39.70%
Total votes 311,441 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Republican to Libertarian

Notes
  1. The Libertarian Party of Massachusetts set the total vote records in 2000 and 2002 with over 300,000 both times and in races with and without Republican opponents; Gary Johnson also won over 100,000 votes in New Mexico in 2018.[5]

References
  1. Erica Martinson (March 6, 2016). "Murkowski mines energy industry for major campaign funds". Alaska Dispatch News. Retrieved March 8, 2016. Murkowski's main challenger, Stock, is running as an independent
  2. "Lisa Murkowski announces that she's running in 2016". AmandaCoyne.com. October 19, 2013. Archived from the original on October 25, 2014. Retrieved October 25, 2014.
  3. Baird, Austin (September 6, 2016). "Joe Miller to challenge Murkowski as Libertarian Party nominee". KTUU. Retrieved September 6, 2016.
  4. "Murkowski Could Become 1st US Senator with Three Plurality Victories". Smart Politics. October 11, 2016. Retrieved November 12, 2016.
  5. "New Mexico Election Results". The New York Times. November 6, 2018. Retrieved November 9, 2018.
  6. Sean Cockerham (August 31, 2010). "It's another Tea Party win as Alaska's Murkowski concedes". Anchorage Daily News. Archived from the original on September 1, 2010. Retrieved September 1, 2010.
  7. Bohrer, Becky (September 18, 2010). "Murkowski mounting write-in bid for Alaska Senate". Associated Press. Retrieved November 1, 2010.
  8. McCormick, John (September 18, 2010). "Murkowski Says She Will Run as Write-In Candidate in Senate Race in Alaska". Bloomberg. Retrieved October 23, 2010.
  9. "Murkowski triumphs in Alaska Senate race: Alaska's Murkowski appears to be first write-in candidate to win Senate since 1954". The Seattle Times. November 17, 2010. Retrieved November 18, 2010.
  10. "Senate Democrats look to next elections". The Hill. March 27, 2014. Retrieved October 25, 2014.
  11. "Republicans Will Need to Sweep to Hold Onto Senate Majority in 2016". National Journal. September 16, 2014. Retrieved October 25, 2014.
  12. "August 16, 2016 Primary Candidate List". State of Alaska Division of Elections. Archived from the original on June 29, 2016. Retrieved June 1, 2016.
  13. Garcia, Eric (January 27, 2016). "Will Pro-LGBT Stances Hurt GOP Senators?". Roll Call. Archived from the original on March 12, 2016. Retrieved March 8, 2016.
  14. Reynolds, Casey (February 5, 2016). "Friday in the Sun!!! (Feb 5)". The Midnight Sun. Retrieved March 8, 2016.
  15. Martinson, Erica (June 16, 2016). "Ex-Anchorage Mayor Dan Sullivan drops out of Senate race". Alaska Dispatch News. Retrieved June 17, 2016.
  16. Reynolds, Casey (April 8, 2016). "Friday in the Sun!!! (April 8)". The Midnight Sun. Retrieved April 11, 2016.
  17. Pathé, Simone (May 15, 2015). "Murkowski Facing a Primary Puzzle". Roll Call. Archived from the original on December 15, 2015. Retrieved May 15, 2015.
  18. Manning, Phillip (January 5, 2016). "Sen. Dunleavey won't challenge Murkowski after all". Alaska Public Media. Retrieved January 6, 2016.
  19. Joseph, Cameron (December 28, 2014). "10 senators who could lose in 2016". The Hill. Retrieved February 16, 2015.
  20. Quinn, Catie (January 6, 2016). "Joe Miller Mulling Senate Bid, "Not Seriously"". Radio Kenai. Retrieved January 6, 2016.
  21. Reynolds, Casey (May 18, 2016). "New signs point to Joe Miller challenging Lisa Murkowski". The Midnight Sun. Retrieved May 24, 2016.
  22. Reynolds, Casey (January 1, 2016). "Friday in the Sun!!!! (Jan 1)". The Midnight Sun. Retrieved January 3, 2016.
  23. Goddard, Taegan (January 3, 2016). "Palin Hints at Possible Senate Bid". Political Wire. Retrieved January 6, 2016.
  24. Herz, Nathaniel (August 22, 2015). "With big campaign war chest, Murkowski forges toward 2016". Alaska Dispatch News. Retrieved October 7, 2015.
  25. "Bill Weld says he supports Lisa Murkowski over Joe Miller". Archived from the original on October 31, 2016. Retrieved October 31, 2016.
  26. Martinson, Erica (June 7, 2016). "Sullivan on Sullivan: Alaska senator backs Murkowski in U.S. Senate race". Alaska Dispatch News. Retrieved June 27, 2016.
  27. Ruskin, Liz (August 9, 2016). "What $5M? Murkowski's GOP rivals disregard long odds". Alaska Public Media. Retrieved August 11, 2016.
  28. "Endorsements". Alaska Republican Assembly. Archived from the original on June 27, 2016. Retrieved June 27, 2016.
  29. Walden, Bruce (July 22, 2016). "To all who have been watching this page". Facebook. Retrieved August 11, 2016.
  30. "2016 PRIMARY ELECTION Election Summary Report August 16, 2016 Official Results" (PDF). Alaska Secretary of State. Retrieved December 15, 2016.
  31. Reynolds, Casey (June 1, 2016). "Blatchford Jumps Into U.S. Senate Race As Democrat". The Midnight Sun. Retrieved June 1, 2016.
  32. "Losing Democrats Already Being Touted for 2016 Comebacks". National Journal. November 12, 2014. Retrieved November 19, 2014.
  33. Joseph, Cameron (February 5, 2015). "Senate Democratic campaign chairman: Majority or bust in 2016". The Hill. Retrieved February 16, 2015.
  34. Sullivan, Sean (February 2, 2015). "Why Mark Begich could run for the Senate again". The Washington Post. Retrieved February 16, 2015.
  35. Bohrer, Becky (February 16, 2016). "Former Sen. Begich says he won't run for any office this year". Alaska Dispatch News. Retrieved February 16, 2016.
  36. Reynolds, Casey (February 26, 2016). "Friday in the Sun! (Feb 26)". The Midnight Sun. Retrieved March 8, 2016.
  37. "November 8, 2016 General Election Candidate List". State of Alaska Division of Elections. Archived from the original on October 21, 2016. Retrieved September 7, 2016.
  38. Kelly, Devin (February 17, 2016). "Anchorage attorney Margaret Stock challenging Lisa Murkowski for Senate". Alaska Dispatch News. Retrieved February 17, 2016.
  39. "Veterans Party of America Nominates Bruce Walden for Alaskan State Senate". PR.com. September 12, 2015. Retrieved February 17, 2016.
  40. "Veterans Party Scores Election Win, Readies for 2016". Independent Political Report. November 23, 2015. Retrieved February 17, 2016.
  41. Whittaker, Jed (January 11, 2016). "Letter: My candidacy is based on love, not contributions". Juneau Empire. Retrieved February 17, 2016.
  42. Pathé, Simone (September 13, 2016). "Mark Begich Doesn't Rule Out Alaska Write-In Campaign". Roll Call. Retrieved September 14, 2016.
  43. "Begich won't run for US Senate this fall in Alaska". Las Vegas Sun. September 22, 2016. Archived from the original on September 23, 2016. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
  44. "Murkowski, Lisa — Candidate for Senate". Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 16, 2016.
  45. "Alaska Senate Race". OpenSecrets.org. Retrieved August 16, 2016.
  46. "Stock, Margaret — Candidate for Senate". Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 16, 2016.
  47. "Miller, Joe — Candidate for Senate". Federal Election Commission. Retrieved September 6, 2016.
  48. "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 26, 2021.
  49. "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
  50. "2016 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
  51. "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version". Daily Kos. Retrieved March 27, 2021.
  52. "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
  53. Cean Stevens (L) 5%, Breck Craig (I) 1%, Ted Gianoutsos (I) 1%, None 3%
  54. Martinson, Erica (September 16, 2016). "Sullivan sticking with Murkowski in widening U.S. Senate race". Alaska Dispatch News. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
  55. Morrow, Weston (August 23, 2016). "National teachers union endorses Murkowski". Fairbanks Daily News-Miner. Archived from the original on July 17, 2023. Retrieved October 5, 2016. The National Education Association — the largest teachers union in the United States — endorsed Sen. Lisa Murkowski in her re-election bid on Monday.(subscription required)
  56. "NRA Endorses Lisa Murkowski for Re-election to U.S. Senate". Fairfax, Virginia. September 28, 2016. Archived from the original on September 29, 2016. Retrieved October 5, 2016.
  57. "U.S. Chamber of Commerce Endorses Lisa Murkowski for Senate - Lisa Murkowski". lisamurkowski.com. July 25, 2016. Archived from the original on October 19, 2016. Retrieved October 24, 2016.
  58. Athens, Maria (September 13, 2016). "Amy Demboski: "There's Only One Conservative In The U.S. Senate Race"". KATN. Archived from the original on March 4, 2021. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
  59. "All Three of Murkowski's Republican Primary Opponents Say They're Voting Joe Miller". Joe Miller for U.S. Senate. September 9, 2016. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
  60. "Mark Levin Endorses Joe Miller for U.S. Senate in Alaska". peoplespunditdaily.com. September 26, 2016.
  61. "Alaska Republican Assembly Supporting Joe Miller for US Senate". Joe Miller for U.S. Senate. September 12, 2016. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
  62. "Alaska Right to Life Endorses Pro-Life Joe Miller Against Pro-Abortion Incumbent Lisa Murkowski in Race for US Senate". joemiller.us. September 7, 2016. Retrieved October 24, 2016.
  63. "Joe Miller Endorsed by Gun Owners of America". Joe Miller for U.S. Senate. September 17, 2016. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
  64. Martinson, Erica (October 7, 2016). "Democrat former Sen. Mark Begich endorses independent Margaret Stock for US Senate". Alaska Dispatch News. Retrieved October 9, 2016.
  65. Bohrer, Becky (August 19, 2016). "Stock picks up endorsement in battle against Murkowski". Fairbanks Daily News-Miner. Retrieved September 9, 2016.
  66. Sherrets, Dane (May 12, 2016). "The Centrist Project Endorses Independent Margaret Stock for U.S. Senate from Alaska". The Centrist Project. Archived from the original on September 19, 2016. Retrieved September 9, 2016.
  67. "2016 General Election November 8, 2016 Official Results". elections.alaska.gov. November 8, 2016. Retrieved December 15, 2016.
Official campaign websites
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