Economy of North Macedonia

The economy of North Macedonia has become more liberalized, with an improved business environment,[7] since its independence from Yugoslavia in 1991, which deprived the country of its key protected markets and the large transfer payments from Belgrade. Prior to independence, North Macedonia was Yugoslavia's poorest republic (only 5% of the total federal output of goods and services). An absence of infrastructure, United Nations sanctions on its largest market (the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia),[26] and a Greek economic embargo hindered economic growth until 1996.

Economy of North Macedonia
National Bank of North Macedonia
CurrencyMacedonian denar (den, MKD)
calendar уеаr
Trade organisations
WTO, CEFTA, Open Balkan
Country group
Statistics
PopulationDecrease 1,832,696 (preliminary results) [3]
GDP
GDP rank
GDP growth
  • +1.1% (2017)[4]
  • +2.9% (2018)[4]
  • +3.9% (2019)[4]
  • -4.7% (2020)[4]
  • +3.9% (2021)[4]
  • +2.2% (2022)[4]
  • +1.4% (2023)[4]
GDP per capita
  • Increase $8,350 (nominal, 2023 est.)[6]
  • Increase $21,110 (PPP, 2023 est.)[4]
GDP per capita rank
GDP by sector
−0.9% (2020 est.)[5]
Population below poverty line
  • Positive decrease 21.8% (2020)[8]
  • Positive decrease 41.1% at risk of poverty or social exclusion (2018)[9]
  • Steady 16.9% on less than $5.50/day (2020f)[10]
Decrease 33.5 medium (2019, Data World Bank)[11]
Labour force
811.197 (2022) [14]
Labour force by occupation
Unemployment
  • Positive decrease 13.4% (Q2, 2023)[14]
  • Positive decrease 34.1% youth unemployment (2021)[15]
Average gross salary
MKD 54,177 / €880 / $961 monthly (April, 2023)[16]
MKD 36,134 / €587 / $641 monthly (April, 2023)[17]
Main industries
food processing, beverages, textiles, chemicals, iron, steel, cement, energy, pharmaceuticals, automotive parts
Decrease 17th (very easy, 2020)[18]
External
ExportsIncrease $7,188 billion (2019)[19]
Export goods
foodstuffs, beverages, tobacco; textiles, miscellaneous manufactures, iron, steel; automotive parts
Main export partners
ImportsIncrease $9,470 billion (2019)[19]
Import goods
machinery and equipment, automobiles, chemicals, fuels, food products
Main import partners
FDI stock
  • Increase $6.937 billion (31 December 2017 est.)[22]
  • Increase Abroad: $1.169 billion (31 December 2017 est.)[22]
Increase −$151 million (2017 est.)[22]
Negative increase $8.79 billion (31 December 2017 est.)[22]
Public finances
Positive decrease 47.3% of GDP (2017)[23]
−2.7% (of GDP) (2017 est.)[22]
Revenues3.295 billion (2017 est.)[22]
Expenses3.605 billion (2017 est.)[22]
Standard & Poor's:[24]
BB-(Domestic)
BB-(Foreign)
BB(T&C Assessment)
Outlook: Stable[25] (2014)
Fitch:[25]
BB+
Outlook: Stable (2011)
Increase $2.802 billion (31 December 2017 est.)[22]
Main data source: CIA World Fact Book
All values, unless otherwise stated, are in US dollars.

Worker remittances and foreign aid have softened the subsequent volatile recovery period. The country's GDP has increased each year except in 2001, rising by 5% in 2000. However, growth in 1999 was held down by the severe regional economic dislocations caused by the Kosovo War.

Successful privatization in 2000 boosted the country's reserves to over $700 million. Also, the leadership demonstrated a continuing commitment to economic reform, free trade, and regional integration. The economy can meet its basic food, coal and hydroelectric power needs but depends on outside sources for all of its petroleum and natural gas and most of its modern machinery and parts. Inflation jumped to 11% in 2000 largely due to higher oil prices, but the currency has calmed since the exchange rate was normalised when the EU Stabilisation and Association Agreement entered into force in 2004.

Macedonian exports by nation in 2021

History

North Macedonia's economy has almost always been completely agricultural in nature from the beginning of the Ottoman Empire when it was part of the Sanjak of Üsküp and Salonica vilayet. It concentrated on pasture farming and vineyard growing. Opium poppy, introduced into the region in 1835, became an important crop as well by the late 19th century, and remained so until the 1930s.[27]

The role of industry in the region's economy increased during the industrial age. The geographical region of Macedonia was responsible for large outputs of textiles and several other goods in the Ottoman Empire. However, outdated techniques to produce the goods persisted. The stagnation of the regional economy began under the rule of the Kingdom of Serbia.

When World War II ended, the local economy began to experience revitalization by way of subsidies from Federal Belgrade. The subsidies assisted North Macedonia to redevelop its "lost" industry and shift its agricultural-centered economy to an industry-centered economy with new hearts of industry emerging all over the country in Veles, Bitola, Štip and Kumanovo. Previously, Skopje was the only industrial centre in North Macedonia, this expanded to several other cities during Socialist Yugoslavia.

After the fall of Socialist Yugoslavia, the economy experienced several shocks that damaged the local economy. Starting with the Western embargo on the Yugoslavian common market, and ending with the Greek embargo on Macedonia over the Macedonia naming dispute. The economy began to recover in 1995 and experienced a full recovery after the 2001 insurgency by ethnic Albanians. Macedonia's GDP grew by an average of 6% annually until the 2007–2008 financial crisis, when its economy contracted. The crisis had little impact on the country. North Macedonia today maintains a low debt-to-GDP ratio and is experiencing a revitalized investment interest by companies from Turkey, Algeria, Albania, and others.

Economic Activity
Pelagonija, breadbasket region of North Macedonia.

North Macedonia is vulnerable to economic developments in Europe - due to strong banking and trade ties - and dependent on regional integration and progress toward EU membership for continued economic growth. At independence in September 1991, North Macedonia was the least developed of the Yugoslav republics, producing a mere 5% of the total federal output of goods and services. The collapse of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia ended transfer payments from the central government and eliminated advantages from inclusion in a de facto free trade area. An absence of infrastructure, UN sanctions on the downsized Yugoslavia, and a Greek economic embargo over a dispute about the country's constitutional name and flag hindered economic growth until 1996. Since then, North Macedonia has maintained macroeconomic stability with low inflation, but it has so far lagged the region in attracting foreign investment and creating jobs, despite making extensive fiscal and business sector reforms. Official unemployment remains high at 24.6% (2015, Q4), but may be overstated based on the existence of an extensive gray market that is not captured by official statistics. In the wake of the global economic downturn, North Macedonia has experienced decreased foreign direct investment, lowered credit availability, and a large trade deficit. However, as a result of conservative fiscal policies and a sound financial system, in 2010 the country credit rating improved slightly to BB+ and was kept at that level in 2011. Macroeconomic stability has been maintained by a prudent monetary policy, which keeps the domestic currency pegged against the euro. As a result, GDP growth was modest, but positive, in 2010 and 2011, and inflation was under control. Latest data from North Macedonia's State Statistical Office show that overall, output for 2012 dropped by 6.6 percent compared to 2011.[28]

As of 2020, the country had signed free trade agreements with the Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA), the Stabilisation and Association Agreement with the European Union, the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) with Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, and Liechtenstein, and bilateral agreements with Turkey and Ukraine.[29]

Free Economic Zones

In a bid to attract more interest from domestic and foreign investors after 2000 the government has pursued a Free economic zone (FEZ) policy, in which more than a dozen geographically disparate FEZs have sprouted. One benefit is a tax holiday for 10 years. The social contribution rate hovered at approximately 30% for the five-year period to 2019.[29]

Agriculture
Main article: Agriculture in North Macedonia
Vineyard in North Macedonia

North Macedonia produced in 2020:

In addition to smaller productions of other agricultural products.[30]

Energy
See also: List of power stations in North Macedonia and Category:Hydroelectric power stations in North Macedonia

In September 2019, it was said that "thermal power plants account for 842 MW of North Macedonia’s total power generation capacity of 1.41 GW, with hydroelectricity and wind accounting for 553.6 MW and 36.8 MW, respectively."[31] There are 20 economically-exploitable locations for coal in the country, whose total geological reserves are estimated at 2,5 billion tons.[32] There exist four hydroelectric reservoirs, located at: Pelagonia, Kičevo, Mariovo and Tikveš. The first two produce energy, while the latter two are speculative.[32]

Mining and metallurgy
Main article: Geology of North Macedonia

The country has been home to mines since at least the Roman era. Gold, silver, lead, copper, iron, nickel, zinc, gypsum and sulfur have been or are now being economically exploited. Marble has since Ancient Greek days been quarried at Sivec.

Trade
North Macedonian exports in 2021

North Macedonia remains committed to pursuing membership in the European Union (EU) and NATO. It became a full World Trade Organization (WTO) member in April 2003. Following a 1997 cooperation agreement with the EU, North Macedonia signed a Stabilization and Association Agreement with the EU in April 2001, giving North Macedonia duty-free access to European markets. In December 2005, it moved a step forward, obtaining candidate country status for EU accession. North Macedonia has had a foreign trade deficit since 1994, which reached a record high of $2.873 billion in 2008, or 30.2% of GDP. Total trade in 2010 (imports plus exports of goods and services) was $8.752 billion, and the trade deficit amounted to $2.149 billion, or 23.4% of GDP. In the first 8 months of 2011, total trade was $7.470 billion and the trade deficit was $1.778 billion. A significant 56.5% of North Macedonia's total trade was with EU countries. North Macedonia's major trading partners are Germany, Greece, Serbia, Bulgaria, Russia, and Italy. In 2010, total trade between North Macedonia and the United States was $116.6 million, and in the first 8 months of 2011 it was $65 million. U.S. meat, mainly poultry, and electrical machinery and equipment have been particularly attractive to North Macedonia importers. Principal exports from North Macedonia to the United States are tobacco, apparel, iron, and steel.

North Macedonia has bilateral free trade agreements with Ukraine, Turkey, and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA—Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, and Liechtenstein). Bilateral agreements with Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Serbia, Montenegro, Kosovo, and Moldova were replaced by membership in the Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA). North Macedonia also has concluded an "Agreement for Promotion and Protection of Foreign Direct Investments" with Albania, Austria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Belarus, Belgium, Luxembourg, Germany, Egypt, Iran, Italy, India, Spain, Serbia, Montenegro, People's Republic of China, South Korea, Malaysia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine, Hungary, Finland, France, the Netherlands, Croatia, Czech Republic, Switzerland, and Sweden.

Unemployment
Unemployed[33] 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Persons N/A N/A N/A 311,000 265,000 225,000 218,601 199,325 161,242 156,627 142,206
Percent (%) 30% 33% 38% 32% 27% 24% 22.9% 19.4% 16.6% 16.2% 15.2%

Unemployment is a continuing problem in the Republic's economy where a large percentage of the Republic's qualified labor force cannot find work. Many people lost their jobs with the collapse of Yugoslavia. As a result, national unemployment was above 35% (37.30% in 2005), but that number has since dropped to 16.6% (2019), with population below the poverty line also dropping from 30.4% (2011) to 21.5% (2015), it is reasonable to assume that based on the trend over the past few years, further declines are likely for both unemployment and poverty.[34] Full-time employment has risen steadily over the last few years,[35] with part-time employment trending slightly downward over the same period resulting in an overall increase to employment, wages increased sharply after 2008, with steady increases continuing into 2016[36]

Tourism
Main article: Tourism in North Macedonia
Ohrid is a popular tourist destination in North Macedonia.

Tourism is a significant part of the economy.

Macroeconomics

Real GDP in the first half of 2011 increased by 5.2%. This robust growth was mainly driven by 23.6% growth in the construction sector; 13.2% in mining, quarrying, and manufacturing; 12.4% in wholesale and retail trade; and 4.2% in transport and communication services. Industrial output in the first 8 months of 2011 was 7.5% higher than in the same period of 2010. Low public and external debt and a comfortable level of foreign exchange reserves allowed for further relaxation of monetary policy, with the reference interest rate of the Central Bank decreasing to 4%. Due to rising prices for energy, fuel, and food on international markets, inflation increased in the first half of 2011, but later decreased to an annualized rate of 3.4% at the end of September. The official unemployment rate dropped to 24.6% in the fourth quarter of 2015, but remained one of the highest in Europe. Many people work in the gray economy, and many experts estimate North Macedonia's actual unemployment is lower.

The government budget has generally kept within projections. The budget deficit at the end of August 2011 reached about 2% of GDP, and fiscal authorities seemed committed to keeping it under the projected target of 2.5% of GDP by the end of the year. In addition to 220 million euros (approx. $298 million) drawn from an IMF Precautionary Credit Line (PCL) in March, financing mostly came from domestic borrowing. However, by the end of the year a financing gap remained of about 50 million to 60 million euros (approx. $67 million to $81 million), which the government plans to cover by borrowing from international capital markets, supported by a policy-based guarantee by the World Bank. The central government's public debt remained low at 26% of GDP, but represents a gradual increase from previous years. Despite lowering the Central Bank bills rate, the Central Bank has not changed liquidity indicators for banks or the reserve requirement since 2009, curbing credit growth to 7.5% in the first three-quarters of 2011. Nikola Gruevski says the government will pay off its entire debt to the private sector by February 2013 in order to improve the economy's overall liquidity.[37] North Macedonia's external trade struggled in 2010 due to the slow recovery from the economic crisis of its main trading partners, particularly EU members. Starting from a very low base, export growth in the first 8 months of 2011 reached 41.7%, topping import growth of 36.8%. The trade deficit has widened to 18.3% of GDP, approaching the end-year target of 21.9% of GDP. At the same time, the current account balance deficit significantly improved and the end-year projection was revised upward to 5.5% of GDP. This was due primarily to a 4.4% higher inflow of current transfers, mostly during the summer, and came despite a poor level of foreign direct investment (FDI) of only $237.2 million by end-July 2011. Foreign currency reserves remained at about $2.6 billion, a level that comfortably covers 4 months of imports and about 110% of the country's short-term debt.

In October 2010, the World Bank Board of Directors approved a new Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) with North Macedonia for the period 2011–2014. This CPS will provide the country assistance of about $100 million in funding for the first 2 years to improve competitiveness, strengthen employability and social protection, and increase the use of sustainable energy. This assistance also includes a commitment of $30 million in direct budget support in the form of a policy-based guarantee by the World Bank to the government to facilitate its access to financing from international capital markets, a process that had been started as of November 2011.

North Macedonia became the first country eligible for the IMF's Precautionary Credit Line in January 2011. This program gives North Macedonia a line of credit worth 475 million euros (about $675 million) over 2 years, intended to be accessed only in case of need brought about by external shocks. The credit line was approved after extensive consultations with the IMF in October and December 2010. The IMF expects that there will be no additional withdrawals from the PCL.

North Macedonia has the best economic freedom in the region, according to the 2012 Index of Economic Freedom, released in January, 2012 by the conservative U.S. think tank Heritage Foundation and the Wall Street Journal.[38]

GDP
Year 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
GDP (USD Billions) 15.5 2.3 2.5 3.3 4.4 4.4 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.7 5.0 5.9 5.7 6.9 8.6 9.1 9.7 9.1 10.1 10.7 11.4 12.2 13.0 13.8
GDP (PPP) (USD Billions) 10.7 10.3 9.7 9.7 9.8 10.1 10.5 10.9 11.6 12.4 12.1 12.4 13.0 14.3 15.4 16.7 18.3 19.6 19.6 19.9 20.8 21.8 23.0 24.3 25.7 27.2
GDP growth rate n/a -6.6% -7.5% -1.8% -1.1% 1.2% 1.3% 3.3% 4.3% 4.5% -4.5% 0.8% 2.8% 4.6% 4.3% 4.9% 6.1% 5.0% 0.9% 0.7% 2.9% 3.6% 4.1% 4.0% 3.9% 3.9%
GDP Per Capita (USD) 8115 1201 1315 1734 2269 2232 1883 1795 1837 1785 1704 1861 2489 2930 2801 3387 4252 4468 4749 4431 4911 5228 5525 5908 6290 6654
GDP (PPP) per capita 5617 5341 5025 5013 5031 5153 5298 5512 5811 6182 6016 6149 6443 7049 7599 8225 8962 9600 9584 9727 10112 10608 11176 11176 12430 13135
Source: IMF[39]

References
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  27. Македонскиот опиум бил најбаран и се извезувал во цел свет – еве зошто престанало производството (Macedonian opium was top quality and was exported all over the world. Here's why its production ceased.) 2013-07-05. Source of this publication is given as: Vladan Jovanovic (Владан Јовановиќ), „Македонски опиум: за финансиските и политичките размери на феноменот (1918-1941)“ (Macedonian opium: on the financial and political dimensions of the phenomenon), Годишњак за социјална историја (Yearbook of Social History), vol XVI no. 3, Belgrade, 2009, pp. 69–79.
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  37. "Macedonia PM Vows to Repay Private Sector Debt". 26 September 2012. Retrieved 3 March 2015.
  38. "Serbia, Bosnia Rank Low on Economic Freedom Index". 13 January 2012. Retrieved 3 March 2015.
  39. IMF

Further reading
  • Mattioli, Fabio (2020). Dark Finance: Illiquidity and Authoritarianism at the Margins of Europe. Stanford University Press. ISBN 978-1-5036-1294-5.
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