2002 Brazilian general election

During the second term of the Fernando Henrique Cardoso administration, a serious economic crisis began in Brazil as an impact of the 1997 Asian financial crisis.[9] Commencing shortly after the 1998 elections, when Cardoso was re-elected, as a currency crisis, it resulted in a decrease in growth and employment rates and a rise in public debt.

In an environment of distrust and uncertainty for investment, many investors feared the measures that were going to be taken if a left-wing candidate won the election. As a matter of fact, when Workers' Party candidate Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) would rise in the polls, the so-called "Brazil risk" index, which measures the confidence of investors in the country, would also rise.

The media called this the "Lula risk", indicating that if Lula was to win the election, the economy would fail. Lula was then forced to sign a text that became known as Carta aos Brasileiros (Letter to the Brazilian people), promising that if he won the election, he would not change the economic policy of Brazil. Many in the left-wing saw this as a shift to the center from Lula and his Workers' Party, which openly defended a transition to socialist economy in the 1989 presidential election.

With incumbent President Fernando Henrique Cardoso ineligible to run for a third consecutive term due to term limits, the dominant centre-right PSDB was forced to find a new candidate for the 2002 election. Given that Cardoso was elected with the help of a broad centre-right coalition, there existed fear among PSDB officials that another candidate would be unable to maintain his coalition.[10]

José Serra, who had served as Minister of Health under Cardoso, was eventually chosen as the party's nominee. Outgoing President Cardoso was initially favorable to the prospect of Governor of Ceará Tasso Jereissati serving as the PSDB's presidential nominee in 2002.[11] According to a report by The Economist, Jereissati enjoyed broader support among the PSDB's coalition partners than Serra, whose performance on the campaign trail was considered lackluster.[12] Additionally, some PSDB insiders and political scientists feared that Serra would perform poorly in the northeast, and believed that Jereissati would do better in the region owing to being from Ceará.[13]

In addition to Serra and Jereissati, who were the subject of most speculation, other potential PSDB candidates were speculated on, including members of the Cardoso administration. Economist and education official Paulo Renato Souza, who served as Cardoso's Minister of Education, was occasionally mentioned as a potential PSDB candidate, though he declined to run.[14] Pedro Malan, an economist who served as Minister of Finance under Cardoso, was also the subject of some 2002 speculation, though he similarly chose not to contest the election for the PSDB.[15]

Both Governor of São Paulo Geraldo Alckmin[16] and President of the Chamber of Deputies Aécio Neves[17] were also the subject of some media speculation, though neither entered the race; Alckmin would later represent the PSDB in the 2006 and 2018 presidential elections, while Neves would be the party's presidential candidate in 2014.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, known as Lula, was a fixture of the Brazilian Left going into the 2002 election. Well-known for his role in the 1980 steelworkers' strike, the former labor leader and federal deputy for São Paulo served as the PT's presidential candidate in 1989, 1994, and 1998. Nevertheless, Lula faced some opposition within his own party, who felt that he shouldn't lead the party after losing the past three presidential elections. Senator Eduardo Suplicy of São Paulo contested the nomination for as the candidacy of the PT.[18][19][20] Suplicy was well-known for being an early supporter of a universal basic income,[21][22] and party leadership encouraged his participation in the party's preliminary election to mobilize and unite the party's base.[23] Suplicy would lose to Lula with just over 15% of the preliminary vote.[24] During the campaign, Suplicy accused party leadership of favoring Lula, publicly demanding that pro-Lula party president José Dirceu be impartial in the election.[25] Former Governor of the Federal District Cristovam Buarque was named as a possible centrist challenger to Lula in the PT preliminary election.[26][27] Buarque, who had supported Democratic Labour Party (PDT) candidate Leonel Brizola rather than Lula in the 1989 presidential election,[28] was known for his independence from party leadership. A member of the party's moderate wing, he was an early supporter of PT moving to the political centre, advocating for privatization of some state industries.[29] Buarque ended up not running for President, and would join Lula's administration as Minister of Education in 2003[30] before leaving the party altogether.

On the other hand, some members of the party's left-wing who felt Lula that was too moderate urged Mayor of Belém Edmilson Rodrigues to contest the party' nomination.[31][32] Edmilson did not end up running for the party's nomination, and would later leave the party to join the left-wing Socialism and Liberty Party (PSOL).[33]