List of election bellwether counties in the United States

Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. There are a total of 3,142 counties or county equivalents in the United States.[1]

Significant bellwethers

The following county is the only county to have voted for the winner of the presidential election in every election starting in 1980:

Deviations in one election

The following 44 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in one election since 1980 (no current bellwethers deviated from the winner in ONLY 1980, 1984, 1996 or 2008, although some deviated in one of those plus another election):[3][4]

Overview of bellwether counties in federal elections
Election year of deviation County State County winner Votes National winner Last deviation
1988 Blaine  Montana Michael Dukakis 1,460 1,402 George H. W. Bush 1912
Clay  Minnesota 11,186 10,380 1968
1992 Door  Wisconsin George H. W. Bush 5,468 4,735 Bill Clinton 1976
Essex  New York 8,278 6,717
Hillsborough  New Hampshire 61,620 58,470
Kent  Delaware 15,562 15,364 1948
Saratoga  New York 36,917 33,011 1976
2000 Pinellas  Florida Al Gore 200,657 184,849 George W. Bush
2004 Nicollet  Minnesota John Kerry 8,797 8,689
Sullivan  New Hampshire 11,434 10,142
2012 Albany  Wyoming Mitt Romney 7,866 7,458 Barack Obama
2016 Bexar  Texas Hillary Clinton 319,550 240,333 Donald Trump 1968
Buncombe  North Carolina 75,452 55,716 1960
Centre  Pennsylvania 37,088 35,274 1976
Clackamas  Oregon 102,095 88,392
DeKalb  Illinois 20,466 19,091
Merced  California 37,317 28,725 1968
San Bernardino 340,833 271,240 1976
San Joaquin 121,124 88,936
Skagit Washington 26,690 24,736
Stanislaus  California 81,647 78,494 1968
Sandoval  New Mexico 27,707 25,905
Ventura  California 194,402 132,323 1976
Will  Illinois 151,927 132,720
Winnebago 55,713 55,624
2020 Bremer  Iowa Donald Trump 8,294 5,958 Joe Biden
Cortland  New York 10,789 10,369
Essex  Vermont 1,773 1,405
Hidalgo  New Mexico 1,120 823 1968
Juneau  Wisconsin 5,719 3,239 1960
Marquette 1976
Otsego  New York 14,382 12,975
Ottawa  Ohio 14,628 9,008 1960
Richland  Wisconsin 4,871 3,995 1976
Sawyer 5,909 4,498 1960
Shiawassee  Michigan 23,149 15,347 1976
Valencia  New Mexico 17,364 14,623 1948
Van Buren  Michigan 21,591 16,803 1976
Vigo  Indiana 23,545 18,213 1952
Warren  Illinois 4,676 3,090 1976
Washington  Maine 10,194 6,761
Westmoreland  Virginia 5,318 4,501 1960
Wood  Ohio 35,757 30,617 1976

Deviations in two elections

The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980:[3]

Notes
  1. This county voted with the popular vote each time.

    References
    1. "How many counties are in the United States?". Reunion Technology Inc. Retrieved June 10, 2022.
    2. McCormick, John (November 13, 2020). "Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
    3. Leip, David. "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved November 22, 2020.
    4. Obeng, Adam (April 26, 2016). "There Are No Bellwether Counties". The Huffington Post. Retrieved November 18, 2020.
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