Arab Winter

The Arab Winter[1][2][3][4][5] (Arabic: الشتاء العربي, romanized: ash-shitāʼ al-ʻarabī) is a term referring to the resurgence of authoritarianism and Islamic extremism[6] in some Arab countries in the 2010s in the aftermath of the Arab Spring protests.[7] The term "Arab Winter" refers to the events across Arab League countries in the Middle East and North Africa, including the Syrian Civil War,[8][9] the Iraqi insurgency and the subsequent War in Iraq,[10] the Egyptian Crisis,[11] the First Libyan Civil War and the subsequent Second Libyan Civil War, and the Yemeni Civil War.[12] Events referred to as the Arab Winter include those in Egypt that led to the removal of Mohamed Morsi and the seizure of power by General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in the 2013 Egyptian coup d'état.[13]

Arab Winter
Part of the aftermath of the Arab Spring
ISIL fighters in the Syrian civil war
DateMid-2012 to roughly 2019 (~7 years) (ongoing in some countries)
Location
Middle East, especially Syria, Iraq, Tunisia, Egypt and Yemen
Caused by
Goals
Methods
Resulted in

The term was first coined by Chinese political scientist Zhang Weiwei during a debate with American political scientist Francis Fukuyama on June 27, 2011. Fukuyama believed the Arab Spring movement would inevitably spread to China, while Zhang predicted the Arab Spring would soon turn into an Arab Winter.[14][15]

According to scholars of the University of Warsaw, the Arab Spring fully devolved into the Arab Winter four years after its onset, in 2014.[16] The Arab Winter is characterized by the emergence of multiple regional wars, mounting regional instability,[17] economic and demographic decline of Arab countries,[18] and ethno-religious sectarian strife.[19] According to a study by the American University of Beirut, by the summer of 2014, the Arab Winter had resulted in nearly a quarter of a million deaths and millions of refugees.[20] Perhaps the most significant event in the Arab Winter was the rise of the extremist group Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, which controlled swathes of land in the region from 2014 to 2019.[21]

In 2023, multiple armed conflicts are still continuing that might be seen as a result of the Arab Spring. The Syrian Civil War has caused massive political instability and economic hardship in Syria, with the Syrian currency plunging to new lows.[22] In Yemen, a civil war and subsequent intervention by Saudi Arabia continues to affect the country.[23] In Lebanon, a major banking crisis is threatening the economy of neighboring Syria.[24]

Definition

The term Arab Winter typically includes the following events:

Country Event Start year
Syria Syrian civil war 2011
Iraq Iraqi insurgency (2011–2013) 2011
War in Iraq (2013–2017) 2013
Egypt Egyptian Crisis (2011–2014) 2011
2013 Egyptian coup d'état 2013
Libya First Libyan Civil War 2011
Second Libyan Civil War 2014
Yemen Yemeni Civil War (2014–present) 2014
Lebanon Syrian civil war spillover in Lebanon 2011
Bahrain 2011 Bahraini uprising 2011

Geography

The term "Arab Winter" refers to the events across Arab League countries in the Middle East and North Africa, including the Syrian civil war,[8][9] the Iraqi insurgency and the subsequent War in Iraq,[10] the Egyptian Crisis,[11] the First Libyan Civil War and the subsequent Second Libyan Civil War, and the Yemeni Civil War.[12] Events referred to as the Arab Winter include those in Egypt that led to the removal of Mohamed Morsi and the seizure of power by General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in the 2013 Egyptian coup d'état.[25]

Political developments, particularly the restoration of authoritarianism and suppression of civil liberties in Egypt since July 3, 2013, have been described as constituting a "military winter" that functioned in opposition to the goals of the Arab Spring.[26][27] Various militias and tribes have started fighting in Libya after a breakdown in negotiations.[28] The arenas of Lebanon and Bahrain were also identified as areas of the Arab Winter.[18]

Libya was named as a scene of the Arab Winter, together with Syria, by Professor Sean Yom.[28] The Northern Mali conflict was often described as part of the "Islamist Winter".[29] Political changes which occurred in Tunisia, involving a change in government, as well as an ISIL insurgency, were also indicated by some as a possible "heading towards Arab Winter".[25]

Beginning date

The first cases of usage of the Arab Winter term can be found since February 1, 2011.

Then, the Arab Winter term began circulating in the media in late 2012 and getting popular since then, referring to the deterioration of many Arab Spring conflicts into prolonging and escalating events of sectarian strife and armed violence. In its December 2012 publication, The Daily Telegraph referred to the year 2012 as the year of Arab Winter.[1]

According to scholars of the University of Warsaw, the Arab Spring fully devolved into the Arab Winter four years after its onset.[30] This view was also supported by Prof. James Y. Simms Jr. in his 2015 opinion article for the Richmond Times-Dispatch.[31] In early 2016, The Economist marked the situation across Arab world countries as "worse than ever", marking it as the ongoing Arab Winter.[32]

Impact

Economic impact

According to the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, as of January 2014, the cost of Arab Winter upheaval across the Arab World was some $800 billion USD.[18] Some 16 million people in Syria, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon were expected to require humanitarian assistance in 2014.[18]

According to The Economist, Malta has "benefited" from the Arab Winter, as tourists who might otherwise be in Egypt or Tunisia opt for a safer alternative.[33]

Casualties

According to a study by the American University of Beirut, as of the summer of 2014, the Arab Winter had resulted in nearly a quarter of a million deaths and millions of refugees.[20]

Political columnist and commentator George Will reported that as of early 2017, over 30,000 lives had been lost in Libya, 220,000–320,000 had been killed in Syria and 4 million refugees had been produced by the Syrian Civil War alone.[31]

The Arab Winter is still ongoing as of 2021. Casualties per crisis include:

Migrant crisis
Main article: European migrant crisis
A Syrian refugee camp on the Turkish border for displaced people of the Syrian Civil War (2012)

The political turmoil and violence in the Middle East and North Africa resulted in massive population displacement in the region.[35] As a result, "boat people", which was once commonly referred to Vietnamese boat people, became frequently used, including internally displaced persons and asylum-seekers and refugees who had previously been residing in Libya, Syria, Iraq and Lebanon, have headed towards the European Union.[36]

The attempts by some Libyans, Syrians and Tunisians to seek safety from the violence by crossing the Mediterranean sea have triggered fears among European politicians and populations of arrivals that might "flood" their shores. This has spurred a flurry of legislative activity and patrolling of the waters to manage arrivals.[36] Despite recent efforts at a common approach to migration by the European Union Hungary and Poland have not been convinced yet.[37] Monetary support authorised by the German legislature for private rescue operations at sea have triggered Italian government animosity.[38][39][40]

See also

References
  1. Spencer, Richard (December 31, 2012). "Middle East review of 2012: the Arab Winter". The Telegraph. Archived from the original on June 10, 2019. Retrieved July 19, 2014.
  2. "Analysis: Arab Winter is coming to Baghdad". The Telegraph. The Jerusalem Post. Archived from the original on July 14, 2019. Retrieved October 8, 2014.
  3. "Expert Warns of America's Coming 'Arab Winter'". CBN. September 8, 2014. Archived from the original on December 9, 2018. Retrieved October 8, 2014.
  4. "The Arab Winter". The New Yorker. December 28, 2011. Archived from the original on September 25, 2018. Retrieved October 8, 2014.
  5. "Arab Spring or Arab Winter?". The New Yorker. Archived from the original on July 18, 2019. Retrieved October 8, 2014.
  6. Yun Ru Phua. "After Every Winter Comes Spring: Tunisia's Democratic Flowering – Berkeley Political Review". Bpr.berkeley.edu. Archived from the original on July 29, 2017. Retrieved February 11, 2017.
  7. Ahmed H Adam and Ashley D Robinson. Will the Arab Winter spring again in Sudan?. Al-Jazeera. 11 June 2016. Archived February 8, 2018, at the Wayback Machine "The Arab Spring that swept across the Middle East and succeeded in overthrowing three dictatorships in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya in 2011 was a pivotal point in the history of nations. Despite the subsequent descent into the "Arab Winter", the peaceful protests of young people were heroic..."
  8. Karber, Phil (June 18, 2012). Fear and Faith in Paradise. ISBN 978-1-4422-1479-8. Archived from the original on September 23, 2023. Retrieved October 23, 2014.
  9. "Arab Winter". America Staging. December 28, 2012. Archived from the original on October 26, 2014. Retrieved October 23, 2014.
  10. "Analysis: Arab Winter is coming to Baghdad". The Jerusalem Post. Archived from the original on July 14, 2019. Retrieved October 23, 2014.
  11. "Egypt and Tunisia's new 'Arab winter'". Euro news. February 8, 2013. Archived from the original on June 29, 2019. Retrieved October 23, 2014.
  12. "Yemen's Arab winter". Middle East Eye. Archived from the original on September 30, 2018. Retrieved October 23, 2014.
  13. "Egypt and Tunisia's new 'Arab winter'". Euronews. February 8, 2013. Archived from the original on June 29, 2019.
  14. Zhang, Weiwei (March 21, 2012). China Wave, The: Rise Of A Civilizational State. World Century Publishing Corporation. p. 158. ISBN 978-1-938134-03-6. Archived from the original on September 23, 2023. Retrieved September 5, 2022. My observation of the Middle East has led me to conclude that, while many in the West cheer the Arab Spring, one shouldn't be too optimistic. I hope the region will do well, but it will be difficult, and the Arab Spring today may well turn into an Arab Winter in a not-too-distant future with the American interest undermined.
  15. Fukuyama, Francis; Weiwei, Zhang (2011). "The China Model: A Dialogue between Francis Fukuyama and Zhang Weiwei". New Perspectives Quarterly. 28 (4): 40–67. doi:10.1111/j.1540-5842.2011.01287.x. ISSN 1540-5842. Archived from the original on June 14, 2021. Retrieved June 15, 2021.
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  17. Wolff, Stefan (April 17, 2014). "From Egypt to Syria, this could be the start of the Arab Winter". The Conversation. Archived from the original on July 18, 2019.
  18. Rivlin, P (January 2014), Iqtisadi (PDF), Dayan Research Center, archived from the original (PDF) on October 23, 2014, retrieved October 18, 2014
  19. Malmvig, Lassen (2013), Arab uprisings: regional implication (PDF), IEMED, archived from the original (PDF) on September 24, 2015, retrieved October 18, 2014
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  22. Chulov, Martin (June 12, 2020). "US 'Caesar Act' sanctions could devastate Syria's flatlining economy". The Guardian. Archived from the original on August 15, 2022.
  23. "Yemen's Government demands UN action regards Houthi violation of deal". Arab News. June 12, 2020. Archived from the original on September 23, 2023.
  24. Azhari, Timour; Gebeily, Maya (June 30, 2022). "Analysis: Political and banking deadlock may plunge Lebanon deeper into crisis". Reuters. Archived from the original on August 30, 2022.
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  29. "In Mali AQ achieved to infiltrate and take over Tuareg insurgency. If AQ succeeds to keep the Arab Spring countries destabilized, this will lead to a viral reproduction of Azawad scenario. AQ is the "Islamic Winter"." Archived October 9, 2017, at the Wayback Machine
  30. Radoslaw Fiedler, Przemyslaw Osiewicz. Transformation processes in Egypt after 2011. 2015. p182.
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  35. “Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa: Between an Arab Winter and the Arab Spring”. "In the midst of ongoing uprisings, violence, and political turmoil, widespread population displacement took place as a result of the conflict in Libya, the violence in Syria and upheaval in Yemen. In each of these contexts, the new waves of displacement took place in or to areas already struggling with previous waves, leading to multi-layered and complex crises." Archived October 9, 2017, at the Wayback Machine
  36. Khallaf, Shaden (August 2013). "Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa: Between an Arab Winter and the Arab Spring" (PDF). Working Paper Series (17). Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs, American University of Beirut. Archived from the original (PDF) on October 9, 2017. Retrieved November 26, 2015. {{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires |journal= (help)
  37. Baczynska, Gabriela; Landauro, Inti (October 6, 2023). "Poland, Hungary stand alone in opposing EU migration reform". Reuters. Retrieved October 8, 2023.
  38. red, ORF at/Agenturen (October 8, 2023). "Seenotrettungs-NGOs: Scholz distanziert sich von Finanzierung". news.ORF.at (in German). Retrieved October 8, 2023.
  39. O'Carroll, Lisa; Bayer, Lili (September 28, 2023). "EU fails to agree changes to migration laws as Germany and Italy clash". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved October 8, 2023.
  40. "Italy criticises Germany for funding migrant charity groups". Reuters. September 24, 2023. Retrieved October 8, 2023.
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