2023 Polish parliamentary election

The 2019 parliamentary election saw a record high turnout, with over 60% of registered electors participating. It also saw the centre-left, in the form of Lewica, entering the Sejm after four years on the outside looking in. Conversely, the far right united under the Konfederacja (Kon) banner to enter one of the two chambers of parliament for the first time since the 2005 elections.[7]

Right-wing parties, coalesced around the ruling national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) within the United Right (ZP) alliance, won the highest percentage of votes ever received since the complete return to democracy in 1991, maintaining their majority in the Sejm, but losing it in the Senate. The PiS party president, Jarosław Kaczyński, thus saw his position as the country's strongman strengthened, despite occupying no governmental position. This result saw the second reelection of a majority government since the fall of the Eastern Bloc. Despite not defeating PiS, the main opposition party, the liberal Civic Platform (PO), itself within the Civic Coalition (KO) alliance, progressed in the senate, though without winning a majority of seats on its own. The opposition altogether did win a majority of seats in the senate, thanks to Lewica, the Polish Coalition (PSL) and independent candidates' gains.[7][8]

One month after the vote, the incumbent Prime Minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, formed his second government. Its composition showed the so called "moderate" right strengthened, which Morawiecki was part of, alongside a weakening of the "radical" right, led by the Justice minister Zbigniew Ziobro. This strategy was mainly to appeal to the more moderate electorate for the 2020 Polish presidential election.[9] Morawiecki's government received the Sejm's confidence on 19 November with 237 votes for, 214 against and three abstentions.[10][11]

The 2020 presidential election saw the reelection of incumbent president Andrzej Duda, himself a member of Law and Justice. Originally planned in May, the elections were very affected by the then ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The government's proposal to maintain the election in May but only through postal votes launched a strong polemic, with the opposition denouncing the unequal campaigning capacities of the incumbent president compared to other candidates within the context of the lockdown and quarantine measures. The election was then postponed to late June following a compromise within the ruling coalition and the opposition's approval, partly thanks to the latter's control of the Senate.[12]

Despite the pandemic, both rounds of voting saw higher turnouts, with Duda facing the Mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski, a member of Civic Platform. Duda beat Trzaskowski, gathering 51% of the votes against the latter's 49%. These results were the most closely fought presidential elections since the return of democracy.[13]

Duda's victory allows PiS take advantage from his presidential veto in case of an opposition victory in the legislative elections, with the opposition needing a three-fifths majority, which currently amounts to 276 seats, to override one.[14]

In May 2023, a law previously passed by the Sejm with the votes of the governing parties came into force, which provides for the establishment of a commission that can, without a court order, exclude politicians from public office for a period of ten years if, in their opinion, the politician was influenced by Russian interests. According to the law, the commission must examine whether this applies to Polish government politicians from 2007 (after PiS' defeat in the 2007 election). According to critics, the law could have been used as an instrument to prohibit selected opposition politicians from taking part in the parliamentary elections.[15] Polish media therefore spoke of a "Lex Tusk" – a law aimed at the opposition leader and former Prime Minister Donald Tusk (2007–2014), who could have been excluded from the parliamentary elections in October 2023 as the potentially most promising opposition candidate.[16] PiS party circles repeatedly accused Tusk of making Poland dependent on energy imports from Russia during his term as head of government. The law drew strong criticism from the United States and the European Union, which expressed concern that the law jeopardized freedom and fairness in elections in Poland. President Duda then softened the law by introducing an amendment to the Sejm on 2 June 2023, which deprived the proposed commission of the previously planned right to impose a ban on political activity.[17]

On 4 June 2023 (the anniversary of the first partially free elections in Poland in 1989) according to organizers, citing the city administration, half a million people took part in a "Great March for Democracy" organized by Tusk's Civic Platform in Warsaw to protest against the law.[18] There were also protests with tens of thousands of participants in other cities, including Krakow, Szczecin and Częstochowa. The demonstration in Warsaw was joined by numerous civil rights movements, the Civic Platform spoke of the largest demonstration in Poland's history since the fall of communism in 1989. The protest march through the center of Warsaw was also led by the former Polish President Lech Wałęsa.[19][20]

Liberal Poland – Entrepreneurs' Strike has registered electoral lists in 17 constituencies, however on 13 October 2023 the committee has announced its intention to withdraw from the race. The committee's candidates will appear on the ballot, although votes for them will be counted as invalid.[32]

PiS remained the largest party in the Sejm, but with about 35% of the vote, lost its majority and will most likely be unable to form a government. The three main opposition groups, Civic Coalition, Third Way and New Left, took 54% of the votes, winning enough seats to allow them to take power.[36] According to the final vote count by the National Electoral Commission, Law and Justice won 194 seats, the Civic Coalition 157, the Third Way 65, The Left 26, and the Confederation Liberty and Independence 18.[37]

Although the German Minority Electoral Committee did win 5.37% of the vote in the Opole region in this election, they came 6th instead of the expected 5th place, falling 5,372 votes short. The Opole Voivodeship represents a total of 12 Sejm seats, and as the 5th place was taken by the far-right Confederation Liberty and Independence, the last 12th seat, which had previously been won by German Minority, went to them instead.[38] As a result, the German Minority Electoral Committee failed to win any parliamentary seat for the first time in 32 years.[39]

Results of the 2023 Polish parliamentary election by powiats

Results of the 2023 Polish parliamentary election by gminas

Results of Sejm elections 1991–2023

Party or alliance				Votes	%	Seats	+/–
	United Right		Law and Justice	6,286,250	29.11	157	−30
			Sovereign Poland	465,024	2.15	18	+8
			The Republicans	99,373	0.46	4	+3
			Kukiz'15[lower-alpha 7]	74,959	0.35	2	New
			Independents	715,248	3.31	13	−8
		Total		7,640,854	35.38	194	−41
	Civic Coalition		Civic Platform	4,992,932	23.12	122	+20
			Modern	375,776	1.74	6	−13
			Polish Initiative	252,021	1.17	3	+1
			The Greens	67,392	0.31	3	0
			AGROunia	53,571	0.25	1	New
			Good Movement	8,254	0.04	0	New
			Independents	879,645	4.07	22	+14
		Total		6,629,402	30.70	157	+23
	Third Way		Poland 2050	1,561,542	7.23	33	New
			Polish People's Party	1,189,629	5.51	28	+9
			Centre for Poland	70,117	0.32	3	+3
			Union of European Democrats	21,056	0.10	0	−1
			Independents and others	268,326	1.24	1	−9
		Total		3,110,670	14.40	65	+35
	The Left		New Left	1,199,503	5.55	19	−19
			Left Together	453,730	2.10	7	+1
			Independents and others	205,785	0.95	0	−5
		Total		1,859,018	8.61	26	−23
	Confederation		New Hope	551,901	2.56	6	+3
			Confederation[lower-alpha 8]	341,188	1.58	7	+4
			National Movement	199,149	0.92	0	−5
			Confederation of the Polish Crown	182,573	0.85	2	New
			Agreement	3,568	0.02	0	−16
			Independents and others	268,985	1.25	3	+3
		Total		1,547,364	7.16	18	+7
	Nonpartisan Local Government Activists			401,054	1.86	0	0
	There is One Poland			351,099	1.63	0	New
	German Minority			25,778	0.12	0	−1
	Peace and Prosperity Movement			24,850	0.12	0	New
	Normal Country			4,606	0.02	0	New
	Anti-party			1,156	0.01	0	New
	Repair Poland Movement			823	0.00	0	New
Total				21,596,863	100.00	460	0
Valid votes				21,596,674	98.31
Invalid/blank votes				370,217	1.69
Total votes				21,966,891	100.00
Registered voters/turnout				29,532,595	74.38
Source: National Electoral Commission, National Electoral Commission