2023–24 Australian region cyclone season

The 2023–24 Australian region cyclone season is an upcoming weather event in the southern hemipshere. The season will officially start on 1 November 2023 and end on 30 April 2024, however, a tropical cyclone could form at any time between 1 July 2023 and 30 June 2024 and would count towards the season total. During the season, tropical cyclones will be officially monitored by one of the three tropical cyclone warning centres (TCWCs) for the region which are operated by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, National Weather Service of Papua New Guinea and the Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics. The United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and other national meteorological services including Météo-France and the Fiji Meteorological Service will also monitor the basin during the season.

2023–24 Australian region cyclone season
Seasonal boundaries
First system formedSeason Not Started
Last system dissipatedSeason Not Started
Seasonal statistics
Tropical lows0
Tropical cyclones0
Severe tropical cyclones0
Total fatalities0
Total damage$0,000 (2024 USD)
Related articles

Season forecasts
Source/Record Tropical
Cyclone		 Severe
Tropical Cyclone		 Ref
Record high:2112[1]
Record low:30[1]
Average (1969–70 – 2023–24):11—[2]
Region Chance
of less		 Average
number		 Ref
Whole (90°E–160°E) 80% 11 [2]
Western (90°E–125°E) 72% 7 [2]
North-Western (105°E–130°E) 75% 5 [2]
Northern (125°E–142.5°E) 61% 3 [2]
Eastern (142.5°E–160°E) 76% 4 [2]
Western South Pacific (142.5°E—165°E) 68% 4 [3]
Eastern South Pacific (165°E—120°W) 40% 6 [3]

Ahead of the season officially starting on 1 November, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) and New Zealand's National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) both issued a tropical cyclone outlook that discussed the upcoming season.[2][4] These outlooks took into account a variety of factors such as a developing El Nino event and what had happened in previous seasons such as 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98, 2009-10 and 2015-16.[2][4] Within their seasonal outlook for the Australian region, the BoM suggested that there was an 80% chance, that the whole region between 90°E – 160°E, would be below its long term average of 11 tropical cyclones.[2] They also suggested that each of their self-defined Western, Northern, North-western and Eastern regions would see a below-average amount of tropical cyclone activity.[2]

The BoM also issued a seasonal forecast that discussed tropical cyclone activity over the South Pacific Ocean for their self-defined eastern and western regions of the South Pacific Ocean.[3] Within this forecast, they predicted that their western region between 142.5°E and 165°E would have a below average amount of activity, while their eastern region between 165°E and 120°W had a 60% chance of seeing activity above its average of 6 tropical cyclones.[3] Along with other Pacific Meteorological Services, the BoM contributed to NIWA's Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone outlook, which predicted that nine and fourteen tropical cyclones would occur between 135°E and 120°W.[4] At least four to eight of these systems were expected to intensify further and become either a Category 3, 4 or 5 severe tropical cyclone on the Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale.[2]

Storm names

Bureau of Meteorology

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (TCWC Melbourne) monitors all tropical cyclones that form within the Australian region, including any within the areas of responsibility of TCWC Jakarta or TCWC Port Moresby.[5] Should a tropical low reach tropical cyclone strength within the BoM's area of responsibility, it will be assigned the next name from the following naming list. The names that will be used for the 2023–24 season are listed below:

  • Jasper (unused)
  • Kirrily (unused)
  • Lincoln (unused)
  • Megan (unused)
  • Neville (unused)
  • Olga (unused)
  • Paul (unused)
  • Robyn (unused)
  • Sean (unused)
  • Taliah (unused)
  • Vince (unused)
  • Zelia (unused)

TCWC Jakarta

TCWC Jakarta monitors Tropical Cyclones from the Equator to 11S and from 90E to 145E. Should a Tropical Depression reach Tropical Cyclone strength within TCWC Jakarta's Area of Responsibility then it will be assigned the next name from the following list.[5]

  • Anggrek (unused)
  • Bakung (unused)
  • Cempaka (unused)
  • Dahlia (unused)
  • Flamboyan (unused)
  • Lili (unused)

TCWC Port Moresby

Tropical cyclones that develop north of 11°S between 151°E and 160°E are assigned names by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre in Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea. Tropical cyclone formation in this area is rare, with no cyclones being named in it since 2007.[6] As names are assigned in a random order, the whole list is shown below:

  • Hibu (unused)
  • Ila (unused)
  • Kama (unused)
  • Lobu (unused)
  • Maila (unused)
  • Alu (unused)
  • Buri (unused)
  • Dodo (unused)
  • Emau (unused)
  • Fere (unused)

Season effects

This table lists all of the tropical cyclones and subtropical cyclones that were monitored during the 2023–2024 Australian region cyclone season. Information on their intensity, duration, name, areas affected, primarily comes from RSMC Australia. Death and damage reports come from either press reports or the relevant national disaster management agency while the damage totals are given in 2023 or 2024 USD.

Name Dates Peak intensity Areas affected Damage
(USD)		 Deaths Refs
Category Wind speed Pressure
Season aggregates
0 systemsSeason Not Started– Season Ongoing0 km/h (0 mph)0 hPa (0 inHg)NoneNone

See also

References
  1. "Australian Tropical Cyclone Database" (CSV). Australian Bureau of Meteorology. 30 June 2023. Retrieved 30 June 2023. A guide on how to read the database is available here.
  2. Australian tropical cyclone season long-range forecast for 2023 to 2024 (Report). Australian Bureau of Meteorology. 9 October 2022. Archived from the original on 17 October 2023.
  3. South Pacific tropical cyclone season forecast for 2023 to 2024 (Report). Australian Bureau of Meteorology. 12 October 2023. Archived from the original on 12 October 2023. Retrieved 12 October 2023.
  4. 2023-24 Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook (PDF) (Report). New Zealand's National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research. 12 October 2023. Archived from the original (PDF) on 12 October 2023. Retrieved 12 October 2023.
  5. RA V Tropical Cyclone Committee (2023). Tropical Cyclone Operational Plan for the South-East Indian Ocean and the Southern Pacific Ocean 2023 (PDF) (Report). World Meteorological Organization. Retrieved 23 October 2023.
  6. Gary Padgett (2008). "Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary October". Australian Severe Weather. Archived from the original on 4 July 2013. Retrieved 1 July 2013.
Wikimedia Commons has media related to 2023–24 Australian region cyclone season.
This article is issued from Wikipedia. The text is licensed under Creative Commons - Attribution - Sharealike. Additional terms may apply for the media files.