2016 Wisconsin Democratic presidential primary
The 2016 Wisconsin Democratic presidential primary was held on April 5 in the U.S. state of Wisconsin as one of the Democratic Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election. Vermont senator Bernie Sanders won the contest with 56.5%, distancing nationwide frontrunner Hillary Clinton by 13 percentage points.
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The Wisconsin Republican primary, held on the same day in conjunction with the Democratic primary, yielded a win for Ted Cruz, who distanced nationwide frontrunner Donald Trump by 13%. With no other primaries being scheduled for that day by either party and just two weeks ahead of the important New York primary, the Wisconsin primary was in the national spotlight.
The two parties' primaries were held in conjunction with this year's Wisconsin judicial elections, where Wisconsin Supreme Court justice Rebecca Bradley was confirmed for a 10-year elected term, winning over Appeals Court judge JoAnne Kloppenburg.[2]
Wisconsin provided a friendly setting for Sanders's brand of economic populism.[3] Liberals made up two-thirds of the majority-white primary electorate, and the economy, followed by income inequality, were of top concern to voters, according to exit polls.[3]
Clinton lost Wisconsin by a narrow margin in the general election, against Republican nominee Donald Trump.
Procedure
State primary procedure
As Wisconsin held an open primary, residents could choose freely which party's primary they wished to participate in, when showing up at the polls on election day, regardless of their official registration with either party or none. Polling stations were opened between 7 a.m. and 8 p.m. Central Time.[4]
The two parties' primaries were held in conjunction with this year's Wisconsin judicial elections that included the election of the Wisconsin Supreme Court justice.[2]
Democratic nomination procedure
The Democratic Party of Wisconsin pledges only 86 out of 96 delegates to the 2016 Democratic National Convention based on the popular vote at the primary election on the basis of proportional apportion. However, only the 18 at-large delegates and 10 pledged "Party Leaders and Elected Officials" (PLEOs) are apportioned according to the statewide vote, while the 57 district delegates are apportioned according to the vote within each of the state's eight congressional districts. The remaining ten Wisconsin delegates are unpledged "Party Leaders and Elected Officials" (PLEOs), or "Superdelegates", who may vote for whomever they wish at the party's upcoming National Convention.[5]
Candidates
While three candidates appeared on the Democratic primary ballot,[6] only Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton actively campaigned for the Wisconsin contest, after Martin O'Malley had already suspended his campaign.
Presidential debate in Milwaukee, February 2016
The Democratic Party held its sixth presidential debate on February 11, 2016 in Milwaukee, at the University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee. Moderated by PBS NewsHour anchors Gwen Ifill and Judy Woodruff, the debate aired on PBS and was simulcast by CNN. Participants were Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders.
Opinion polling
| Poll source | Date | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Official Primary Results | April 5, 2016 | Bernie Sanders 56.6% |
Hillary Clinton 43.1% |
Others / Uncommitted 0.4% | |
| ARG[7]
Margin of error: ± 5.0%
|
April 1–3, 2016 | Hillary Clinton 49% |
Bernie Sanders 48% |
Others / Undecided 3% | |
| Emerson[8]
Margin of error: ± 4.2%
|
March 30 – April 3, 2016 | Bernie Sanders 51% |
Hillary Clinton 43% |
Others / Undecided 6% | |
| CBS News/YouGov[9]
Margin of error: ± 3.7%
|
March 29 – April 1, 2016 | Bernie Sanders 49% |
Hillary Clinton 47% |
Others / Undecided 4% | |
| FOX Business[10]
Margin of error: ± 3.0%
|
March 28–30, 2016 | Bernie Sanders 48% |
Hillary Clinton 43% |
Others / Undecided 10% | |
| Loras College[11]
Margin of error: ± 4.8%
|
March 28–29, 2016 | Hillary Clinton 47% |
Bernie Sanders 41% |
Others / Undecided 12% | |
| Public Policy Polling[12]
Margin of error: ± 3.7%
|
March 28–29, 2016 | Bernie Sanders 49% |
Hillary Clinton 43% |
Others / Undecided 8% | |
| MULaw Poll[13]
Margin of error: ± 6.3%
|
March 24–28, 2016 | Bernie Sanders 49% |
Hillary Clinton 45% |
Others / Undecided 6% | |
| Emerson College[14]
Margin of error: ± 4.6%
|
March 20–22, 2016 | Hillary Clinton 50% |
Bernie Sanders 44% |
Others / Undecided 6% | |
| MULaw Poll[15]
Margin of error: ± 6.9%
|
February 18–21, 2016 | Bernie Sanders 44% |
Hillary Clinton 43% |
Others / Undecided 13% | |
| MULaw Poll[16]
Margin of error: ± 6.5%
|
January 21–24, 2016 | Hillary Clinton 45% |
Bernie Sanders 43% |
Martin O'Malley 1% |
Not Reported |
| Poll source | Date | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquette Law School[17]
Margin of error: ± 6.1%
|
November 12–15, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 50% |
Bernie Sanders 41% |
Martin O'Malley 2% |
Undecided 7% |
| St. Norbert College[18]
Margin of error: ± 6%
|
October 14–17, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 35% |
Bernie Sanders 33% |
Joe Biden 21% |
Martin O'Malley 1%, Lincoln Chafee 0%, Jim Webb 0%, Not Sure 10% |
| Hillary Clinton 47% |
Bernie Sanders 42% |
– | Martin O'Malley 1%, Lincoln Chafee 1%, Jim Webb <1%, Not Sure 7% | ||
| Marquette University[19]
Margin of error: ± 5.9%
|
September 24–28, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 42% |
Bernie Sanders 30% |
Joe Biden 17% |
Martin O'Malley 1%, Lincoln Chafee 0%, Jim Webb 0% |
| Marquette University[20]
Margin of error: ± 6.1%
|
August 13–16, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 44% |
Bernie Sanders 32% |
Joe Biden 12% |
Lincoln Chafee 1%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Jim Webb 1% |
| Marquette University[21]
Margin of error: ± 5.1%
|
April 7–10, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 58.2% |
Elizabeth Warren 14.3% |
Joe Biden 12% |
Martin O'Malley 0.9%, Jim Webb 0.9%, Someone else 3.7%, Don't know 8.9% |
| Public Policy Polling
Margin of error: ± 4.4%
|
March 6–8, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 60% |
Joe Biden 14% |
Elizabeth Warren 12% |
Bernie Sanders 5%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Jim Webb 1%, Other/Undecided 7% |
| Poll source | Date | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling
Margin of error: ± 4.1%
|
April 17–20, 2014 | Hillary Clinton 57% |
Russ Feingold 19% |
Joe Biden 8% |
Elizabeth Warren 5%, Cory Booker 1%, Andrew Cuomo 1%, Mark Warner 1%, Kirsten Gillibrand 0%, Martin O'Malley 0%, Someone else/Not sure 8% |
| Poll source | Date | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquette University
Margin of error: ± 5%
|
October 21–27, 2013 | Hillary Clinton 64% |
Elizabeth Warren 10.8% |
Joe Biden 10.6% |
Andrew Cuomo 1.9%, Martin O'Malley 0.8%, Someone else 2.1%, Don't know 9.2% |
| Public Policy Polling
Margin of error: ± 4.6%
|
September 13–16, 2013 | Hillary Clinton 50% |
Russ Feingold 20% |
Joe Biden 11% |
Elizabeth Warren 4%, Cory Booker 3%, Andrew Cuomo 2%, Kirsten Gillibrand 0%, Martin O'Malley 0%, Mark Warner 0%, Someone else/Not sure 9% |
| Marquette University
Margin of error: ± 5.5%
|
May 6–9, 2013 | Hillary Clinton 61.5% |
Joe Biden 13% |
Elizabeth Warren 4.8% |
Andrew Cuomo 4.2%, Deval Patrick 1.5%, Martin O'Malley 1.1%, Mark Warner 0.7%, Someone else 1.5%, Don't Know 11% |
| Public Policy Polling
Margin of error:
|
February 21–24, 2013 | Hillary Clinton 50% |
Russ Feingold 25% |
Joe Biden 11% |
Andrew Cuomo 3%, Elizabeth Warren 2%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Deval Patrick 1%, Brian Schweitzer 0%, Mark Warner 0%, Someone Else/Undecided 8% |
Results
| Wisconsin Democratic primary, April 5, 2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Popular vote | Estimated delegates | |||
| Count | Percentage | Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |
| Bernie Sanders | 570,192 | 56.59% | 48 | 1 | 49 |
| Hillary Clinton | 433,739 | 43.05% | 38 | 9 | 47 |
| Martin O'Malley (withdrawn) | 1,732 | 0.17% | |||
| Roque "Rocky" De La Fuente (write-in) | 18 | 0.00% | |||
| Scattering | 431 | 0.04% | |||
| Uncommitted | 1,488 | 0.15% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 1,007,600 | 100% | 86 | 10 | 96 |
| Source: The Green Papers, Wisconsin Secretary of State | |||||
Results by county
| County | Clinton | % | Sanders | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adams | 1,375 | 47.22% | 1,515 | 52.03% |
| Ashland | 1,248 | 36.00% | 2,204 | 63.57% |
| Barron | 5,572 | 46.11% | 2,965 | 53.16% |
| Bayfield | 1,488 | 36.09% | 2,619 | 63.52% |
| Brown | 16,701 | 42.40% | 22,559 | 57.27% |
| Buffalo | 825 | 41.46% | 1,149 | 57.74% |
| Burnett | 918 | 49.04% | 936 | 50.00% |
| Calumet | 3,028 | 42.86% | 4,017 | 56.86% |
| Chippewa | 4,022 | 43.77% | 5,127 | 55.79% |
| Clark | 1,473 | 42.67% | 1,969 | 57.04% |
| Columbia | 4,187 | 39.21% | 6,460 | 60.49% |
| Crawford | 1,146 | 41.61% | 1,592 | 57.81% |
| Dane | 61,405 | 37.27% | 102,986 | 62.51% |
| Dodge | 4,505 | 41.75% | 6,249 | 57.91% |
| Door | 2,943 | 46.06% | 3,426 | 53.62% |
| Douglas | 3,577 | 43.82% | 4,512 | 55.27% |
| Dunn | 2,421 | 35.95% | 4,279 | 63.54% |
| Eau Claire | 7,689 | 35.88% | 13,674 | 63.81% |
| Florence | 175 | 36.92% | 293 | 61.81% |
| Fond du Lac | 5,519 | 42.65% | 7,385 | 57.07% |
| Forest | 610 | 47.25% | 667 | 51.67% |
| Grant | 3,068 | 40.37% | 4,491 | 59.10% |
| Green | 2,766 | 38.59% | 4,368 | 60.95% |
| Green Lake | 871 | 42.89% | 1,148 | 56.52% |
| Iowa | 2,164 | 40.14% | 3,202 | 59.40% |
| Iron | 437 | 42.93% | 563 | 55.30% |
| Jackson | 1,294 | 40.64 | 1,872 | 58.79% |
| Jefferson | 4,775 | 38.60% | 7,555 | 61.07% |
| Juneau | 1,355 | 42.21% | 1,839 | 57.29% |
| Kenosha | 10,897 | 42.49% | 14,653 | 57.13% |
| Kewaunee | 1,497 | 47.06% | 1,667 | 52.40% |
| La Crosse | 8,908 | 36.93% | 15,156 | 62.84% |
| Lafayette | 1,170 | 46.37% | 1,331 | 52.75% |
| Langlade | 1,192 | 44.83% | 1,447 | 54.42% |
| Lincoln | 1,732 | 41.33% | 2,442 | 58.27% |
| Manitowoc | 4,999 | 43.37% | 6,458 | 56.03% |
| Marathon | 8,061 | 40.66% | 11,673 | 58.87% |
| Marinette | 2,580 | 48.59% | 2,698 | 50.81% |
| Marquette | 994 | 42.62% | 1,321 | 56.56% |
| Menominee | 204 | 36.36% | 355 | 63.28% |
| Milwaukee | 100,798 | 51.68% | 93,688 | 48.02% |
| Monroe | 2,269 | 38.86% | 3,539 | 60.61% |
| Oconto | 2,422 | 47.99% | 2,590 | 51.32% |
| Oneida | 2,500 | 39.40% | 3,813 | 60.09% |
| Outagamie | 11,228 | 39.62% | 17,021 | 60.07% |
| Ozaukee | 6,587 | 48.75% | 6,897 | 51.04% |
| Pepin | 435 | 43.54% | 561 | 56.16% |
| Pierce | 2,343 | 41.82% | 3,208 | 57.27% |
| Polk | 2,165 | 46.21% | 2,476 | 52.85% |
| Portage | 5,088 | 35.08% | 9,351 | 64.46% |
| Price | 862 | 37.56% | 1,418 | 61.79% |
| Racine | 14,111 | 48.84% | 14,681 | 50.82% |
| Richland | 1,276 | 41.55% | 1,786 | 58.16% |
| Rock | 11,262 | 39.20% | 17,360 | 60.42% |
| Rusk | 816 | 42.52% | 1,092 | 56.90% |
| St. Croix | 4,895 | 45.90% | 5,679 | 53.25% |
| Sauk | 4,527 | 38.48% | 7,203 | 61.22% |
| Sawyer | 976 | 36.86% | 1,654 | 62.46% |
| Shawano | 2,117 | 41.19% | 3,303 | 58.44% |
| Sheboygan | 7,145 | 44.13% | 8,952 | 55.30% |
| Taylor | 852 | 39.68% | 1,279 | 59.57% |
| Trempealeau | 1,989 | 44.76% | 2,430 | 54.68% |
| Vernon | 1,936 | 35.60% | 3,481 | 64.01% |
| Vilas | 1,414 | 36.36% | 2,147 | 60.09% |
| Walworth | 5,188 | 37.96% | 8,426 | 61.65% |
| Washburn | 1,058 | 42.32% | 1,419 | 56.76% |
| Washington | 6,388 | 45.24% | 7,690 | 54.46% |
| Waukesha | 24,835 | 48.28% | 26,442 | 51.40% |
| Waupaca | 2,585 | 39.68% | 3,894 | 59.77% |
| Waushara | 1,241 | 43.45% | 1,600 | 56.02% |
| Winnebago | 11,212 | 38.44% | 17,854 | 61.22% |
| Wood | 4,428 | 39.46% | 6,756 | 60.20% |
| Total | 433,739 | 43.05% | 570,192 | 56.59% |
Detailed results per congressional district
| District | Total | Bernie Sanders | Hillary Clinton | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | Delegates | Votes | Delegates | Votes | Delegates | |
| 1st district | 104,747 | 6 | 57,327 | 3 | 47,420 | 3 |
| 2nd district | 204,897 | 11 | 127,466 | 7 | 77,431 | 4 |
| 3rd district | 117,465 | 7 | 72,043 | 4 | 45,422 | 3 |
| 4th district | 144,659 | 10 | 68,255 | 5 | 76,404 | 5 |
| 5th district | 100,823 | 5 | 54,809 | 3 | 46,014 | 2 |
| 6th district | 105,348 | 6 | 60,490 | 3 | 44,858 | 3 |
| 7th district | 98,860 | 6 | 56,683 | 3 | 42,177 | 3 |
| 8th district | 107,841 | 6 | 61,965 | 3 | 45,876 | 3 |
| At-large delegates | 1,002,036 | 19 | 567,865 | 11 | 434,171 | 8 |
| Pledged PLEOs | 1,002,036 | 10 | 567,865 | 6 | 434,171 | 4 |
| Total | 1,002,036 | 86 | 567,865 | 48 | 434,171 | 38 |
Analysis
Bernie Sanders scored a large victory in Wisconsin, a largely liberal and big manufacturing state. He was bolstered by a 73-26 showing among younger voters, a 64-35 showing among men, a 72-28 showing among self-identified Independents, and a 59-40 showing among white voters who comprised 83% of the electorate in the Cheese State. Sanders also won women 50–49, but lost African American voters to Clinton, 69–31. Sanders swept all income and educational attainment levels in Wisconsin.
Sanders won unions 54–46, a key demographic in the industrial Rust Belt.
Sanders swept all counties in Wisconsin but one. He was victorious in the southeast 55–45, in the southwest 62–38, and in rural northeastern and northwestern Wisconsin 57–42. He carried the major cities of Madison, which has a younger electorate, as well as Eau Claire, Green Bay, Oshkosh, and Kenosha. Clinton won in Milwaukee 51–48, likely thanks to her ardent African-American support.[23]
References
- "Wisconsin Official Primary Results" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on October 10, 2016. Retrieved June 16, 2016.
- Patrick Marley (April 6, 2016). "Rebecca Bradley beats JoAnne Kloppenburg in high court race". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved April 6, 2016.
- Chozick, Amy (April 5, 2016). "Bernie Sanders Wins Wisconsin Democratic Primary, Adding to Momentum (Published 2016)". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved January 23, 2021.
- Michele Gorman (April 5, 2016). "How to follow voting results in Wisconsin". Newsweek. Retrieved April 6, 2016.
- "Wisconsin Democratic primary, 2016". The Green Papers. Retrieved April 6, 2016.
- "Candidates on ballot: 2016 spring election and presidential preference vote" (PDF). Wisconsin Government Accountability Board. March 29, 2016. Archived from the original (PDF) on April 15, 2016. Retrieved April 6, 2016.
- "ARC Wisconsin Poll April 1-3, 2016". Retrieved April 4, 2016.
- "Wisconsin Feels the Bern While Cruz has Momentum Going into Primaries" (PDF). Retrieved April 4, 2016.
- "CBS News 2016 Battleground TrackerWisconsin". Retrieved April 3, 2016.
- "FOX Business Network Poll: Sanders Tops Clinton by Five in Wisconsin". Retrieved March 31, 2016.
- "Loras College Poll finds Cruz tops Trump, Clinton leads Sanders, tight race for state supreme court in Wisconsin". Retrieved April 2, 2016.
- "Sanders leads in Wisconsin; GOP Race Close; VA Privatization Issue Hurts Johnson" (PDF). Retrieved March 31, 2016.
- "Marquette Law School Poll – March 24-28, 2016" (PDF). Retrieved March 30, 2016.
- "EMERSON POLL: WISCONSIN PRIMARY IN PLAY FOR BOTH PARTIES; CRUZ LEADS TRUMP BY A POINT; CLINTON UP 6 OVER SANDERS; CRUZ FARES BETTER THAN TRUMP IN GENERAL AGAINST CLINTON" (PDF). Retrieved March 24, 2016.
- "@MULawPoll: In Dem prez race in WI, it's Sanders 44%, Clinton 43%. In @mulawpoll in January, it was Clinton 45%, Sanders 43%. #mulawpoll". Twitter. February 25, 2016. Retrieved February 25, 2016.
- "For Democrats in WI: Hillary Clinton 45%, Bernie Sanders 43%, Martin O'Malley 1% among those intending to vote". Twitter. January 28, 2016. Retrieved February 5, 2016.
- "New Marquette Law School Poll finds Carson, Trump and Rubio atop tight Wisconsin GOP primary race".
- "The Wisconsin Survey fall 2015 | The Wisconsin Survey fall 2015" (PDF). Retrieved October 21, 2015.
- "Marquette Law School Poll finds Walker job approval at 37 percent, following presidential run | Marquette Law School Poll". law.marquette.edu. Retrieved September 30, 2015.
- "Marquette Law School Poll finds Walker, Clinton leading primary fields among Wisconsin voters | Marquette Law School Poll". law.marquette.edu. Retrieved August 20, 2015.
- "Marquette Law School Poll finds Walker job approval down | Marquette Law School Poll". law.marquette.edu. Retrieved July 9, 2015.
- The Green Papers
- "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved October 18, 2016.