2004 United States presidential election in Wisconsin
The 2004 United States presidential election in Wisconsin took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 10 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.
 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 72.9% ( 5.9%)[1] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Elections in Wisconsin |
|---|
 |
Wisconsin was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 0.38% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered the state a toss-up, or a crucial swing state, and faced similar political scrutiny to neighboring Michigan, Minnesota, and Iowa. On election day, Kerry barely carried the state over President George W. Bush. The results in Wisconsin were nearly identical to the results from four years earlier, when Al Gore squeaked by Bush, and the 2020 presidential election when Joe Biden had a similarly narrow victory in the Badger State against Donald Trump.
As of the 2020, this is the last time that Wisconsin failed to back the overall winner of the Electoral College, and thus the state is tied with Michigan and Pennsylvania for the longest streak of supporting the national winner up to the present day. This was also only the third time since 1960 (after 2000 and 1988) that it would vote for the losing candidate. Bush is to date the only presidential candidate to win two terms in office without carrying Wisconsin at least once, as well as the most recent Republican to win without the state.
Until 2020, this was the last time Wisconsin voted for a different candidate than neighboring Iowa; in both cases Iowa voted Republican while Wisconsin voted Democratic.
Campaign
Predictions
There were 12 news organizations that made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[2]
| Source | Ranking |
|---|---|
| D.C. Political Report | Lean D |
| Associated Press | Toss-up |
| CNN | Likely R (flip) |
| Cook Political Report | Toss-up |
| Newsweek | Toss-up |
| New York Times | Toss-up |
| Rasmussen Reports | Toss-up |
| Research 2000 | Toss-up |
| Washington Post | Toss-up |
| Washington Times | Toss-up |
| Zogby International | Likely D |
| Washington Dispatch | Likely R (flip) |
Polling
Pre-election polling had Bush and Kerry winning polls, with neither candidate grasping a strong lead. The last 3 poll averages showed Bush leading 49% to 46%.[3]
Analysis
Wisconsin has voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in the last four elections before the fifth time in 2004. The urban centers of Milwaukee and Madison tend to vote strongly Democratic. The suburbs of those cities are politically diverse, but tend to vote Republican. Counties in the western part of the state tend to be liberal, a tradition passed down from Scandinavian immigrants. The rural areas in the northern and eastern part of the state are the most solidly Republican areas in Wisconsin.
The CNN exit polls showed a dead heat between the two. However, the deciding factor for Kerry's victory was union members who voted for him with 62%, while non-members (83% of the population) voted for Bush with just 52% of the vote.[8]
Results
| 2004 United States presidential election in Wisconsin | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Electoral votes | |
| Democratic | John Forbes Kerry | 1,489,504 | 49.7% | 10 | |
| Republican | George Walker Bush (Incumbent) | 1,478,120 | 49.3% | 0 | |
| Independent | Ralph Nader | 16,390 | 0.6% | 0 | |
| Libertarian | Michael Badnarik | 6,464 | 0.2% | 0 | |
| Green | David Cobb | 2,661 | 0.1% | 0 | |
| Write Ins | 2,117 | 0.1% | 0 | ||
| Constitution | Michael Peroutka | 869 | 0.0% | 0 | |
| Independent | Walt Brown | 471 | 0.0% | 0 | |
| Independent | Roger Calero | 411 | 0.0% | 0 | |
| Totals | 2,997,007 | 100.00% | 10 | ||
| Voter turnout (Voting age population) | 72.4% | ||||
By county
| County | John Kerry Democratic |
George W. Bush Republican |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Adams | 5,447 | 52.09% | 4,890 | 46.77% | 119 | 1.14% | 557 | 5.32% | 10,456 |
| Ashland | 5,805 | 63.10% | 3,313 | 36.01% | 81 | 0.88% | 2,492 | 27.09% | 9,199 |
| Barron | 11,696 | 48.86% | 12,030 | 50.26% | 211 | 0.89% | -334 | -1.40% | 23,937 |
| Bayfield | 5,845 | 60.26% | 3,754 | 38.71% | 100 | 1.03% | 2,091 | 21.55% | 9,699 |
| Brown | 54,935 | 44.56% | 67,173 | 54.48% | 1,186 | 0.96% | -12,238 | -9.92% | 123,294 |
| Buffalo | 3,998 | 52.67% | 3,502 | 46.13% | 91 | 1.20% | 496 | 6.54% | 7,591 |
| Burnett | 4,499 | 48.27% | 4,743 | 50.89% | 79 | 0.85% | -244 | -2.62% | 9,321 |
| Calumet | 10,290 | 40.71% | 14,721 | 58.24% | 265 | 1.05% | -4,431 | -17.53% | 25,276 |
| Chippewa | 14,751 | 48.33% | 15,450 | 50.62% | 323 | 1.06% | -699 | -2.29% | 30,524 |
| Clark | 6,966 | 46.06% | 7,966 | 52.67% | 193 | 1.27% | -1,000 | -6.61% | 15,125 |
| Columbia | 14,300 | 48.38% | 14,956 | 50.60% | 299 | 1.01% | -656 | -2.22% | 29,555 |
| Crawford | 4,656 | 55.04% | 3,680 | 43.50% | 123 | 1.45% | 976 | 11.54% | 8,459 |
| Dane | 181,052 | 66.02% | 90,369 | 32.95% | 2,828 | 1.03% | 90,683 | 33.07% | 274,249 |
| Dodge | 16,690 | 37.64% | 27,201 | 61.35% | 445 | 1.01% | -10,511 | -23.71% | 44,336 |
| Door | 8,367 | 47.84% | 8,910 | 50.94% | 214 | 1.22% | -543 | -3.10% | 17,491 |
| Douglas | 16,537 | 65.66% | 8,448 | 33.54% | 202 | 0.81% | 8,089 | 32.12% | 25,187 |
| Dunn | 12,039 | 51.95% | 10,879 | 46.95% | 254 | 1.09% | 1,160 | 5.00% | 23,172 |
| Eau Claire | 30,068 | 54.24% | 24,653 | 44.47% | 716 | 1.30% | 5,415 | 9.77% | 55,437 |
| Florence | 993 | 36.45% | 1,703 | 62.52% | 28 | 1.03% | -710 | -26.07% | 2,724 |
| Fond du Lac | 19,216 | 36.23% | 33,291 | 62.77% | 529 | 1.00% | -14,075 | -26.54% | 53,036 |
| Forest | 2,509 | 48.69% | 2,608 | 50.61% | 36 | 0.70% | -99 | -1.92% | 5,153 |
| Grant | 12,864 | 50.92% | 12,208 | 48.32% | 192 | 0.76% | 656 | 2.60% | 25,264 |
| Green | 9,575 | 52.47% | 8,497 | 46.56% | 176 | 0.96% | 1,078 | 5.91% | 18,248 |
| Green Lake | 3,605 | 35.42% | 6,472 | 63.59% | 101 | 0.99% | -2,867 | -28.17% | 10,178 |
| Iowa | 7,122 | 56.79% | 5,348 | 42.64% | 72 | 0.57% | 1,774 | 14.15% | 12,542 |
| Iron | 1,956 | 50.43% | 1,884 | 48.57% | 39 | 1.00% | 72 | 1.86% | 3,879 |
| Jackson | 5,249 | 53.97% | 4,387 | 45.11% | 90 | 0.92% | 862 | 8.86% | 9,726 |
| Jefferson | 17,925 | 42.56% | 23,776 | 56.45% | 414 | 0.98% | -5,851 | -13.89% | 42,115 |
| Juneau | 5,734 | 46.32% | 6,473 | 52.29% | 172 | 1.39% | -739 | -5.97% | 12,379 |
| Kenosha | 40,107 | 52.48% | 35,587 | 46.56% | 734 | 0.96% | 4,520 | 5.92% | 76,428 |
| Kewaunee | 5,175 | 45.91% | 5,970 | 52.96% | 128 | 1.13% | -795 | -7.05% | 11,273 |
| La Crosse | 33,170 | 53.38% | 28,289 | 45.53% | 677 | 1.09% | 4,881 | 7.85% | 62,136 |
| Lafayette | 4,402 | 52.48% | 3,929 | 46.84% | 57 | 0.68% | 473 | 5.64% | 8,388 |
| Langlade | 4,751 | 42.90% | 6,235 | 56.30% | 88 | 0.80% | -1,484 | -13.40% | 11,074 |
| Lincoln | 7,484 | 47.67% | 8,024 | 51.11% | 192 | 1.22% | -540 | -3.44% | 15,700 |
| Manitowoc | 20,652 | 46.77% | 23,027 | 52.14% | 481 | 1.09% | -2,375 | -5.37% | 44,160 |
| Marathon | 30,899 | 45.40% | 36,394 | 53.47% | 766 | 1.12% | -5,495 | -8.07% | 68,059 |
| Marinette | 10,190 | 45.76% | 11,866 | 53.28% | 214 | 0.96% | -1,676 | -7.52% | 22,270 |
| Marquette | 3,785 | 44.65% | 4,604 | 54.31% | 88 | 1.03% | -819 | -9.66% | 8,477 |
| Menominee | 1,412 | 82.57% | 288 | 16.84% | 10 | 0.58% | 1,124 | 65.73% | 1,710 |
| Milwaukee | 297,653 | 61.72% | 180,287 | 37.39% | 4,296 | 0.89% | 117,366 | 24.33% | 482,236 |
| Monroe | 8,973 | 45.89% | 10,375 | 53.06% | 206 | 1.05% | -1,402 | -7.17% | 19,554 |
| Oconto | 8,534 | 43.11% | 11,043 | 55.79% | 217 | 1.10% | -2,509 | -12.68% | 19,794 |
| Oneida | 10,464 | 47.48% | 11,351 | 51.50% | 224 | 1.02% | -887 | -4.02% | 22,039 |
| Outagamie | 40,169 | 44.61% | 48,903 | 54.31% | 978 | 1.09% | -8,734 | -9.70% | 90,050 |
| Ozaukee | 17,714 | 33.40% | 34,904 | 65.82% | 414 | 0.78% | -17,190 | -32.42% | 53,032 |
| Pepin | 2,181 | 53.64% | 1,853 | 45.57% | 32 | 0.79% | 328 | 8.07% | 4,066 |
| Pierce | 11,176 | 51.09% | 10,437 | 47.71% | 263 | 1.21% | 739 | 3.38% | 21,876 |
| Polk | 11,173 | 47.54% | 12,095 | 51.46% | 235 | 1.00% | -922 | -3.92% | 23,503 |
| Portage | 21,861 | 56.11% | 16,546 | 42.47% | 554 | 1.43% | 5,315 | 13.64% | 38,961 |
| Price | 4,349 | 49.63% | 4,312 | 49.21% | 102 | 1.17% | 37 | 0.42% | 8,763 |
| Racine | 48,229 | 47.48% | 52,456 | 51.65% | 884 | 0.87% | -4,227 | -4.17% | 101,569 |
| Richland | 4,501 | 47.78% | 4,836 | 51.34% | 83 | 0.88% | -335 | -3.56% | 9,420 |
| Rock | 46,598 | 57.90% | 33,151 | 41.19% | 730 | 0.91% | 13,447 | 16.71% | 80,479 |
| Rusk | 3,820 | 48.19% | 3,985 | 50.27% | 122 | 1.53% | -165 | -2.08% | 7,927 |
| St. Croix | 18,784 | 44.90% | 22,679 | 54.21% | 372 | 0.89% | -3,895 | -9.31% | 41,835 |
| Sauk | 15,708 | 51.64% | 14,415 | 47.39% | 294 | 0.96% | 1,293 | 4.25% | 30,417 |
| Sawyer | 4,411 | 46.66% | 4,951 | 52.37% | 91 | 0.97% | -540 | -5.71% | 9,453 |
| Shawano | 8,657 | 41.23% | 12,150 | 57.86% | 192 | 0.92% | -3,493 | -16.63% | 20,999 |
| Sheboygan | 27,608 | 44.08% | 34,458 | 55.02% | 559 | 0.90% | -6,850 | -10.94% | 62,625 |
| Taylor | 3,829 | 40.12% | 5,582 | 58.49% | 132 | 1.38% | -1,753 | -18.37% | 9,543 |
| Trempealeau | 8,075 | 57.42% | 5,878 | 41.80% | 109 | 0.77% | 2,197 | 15.62% | 14,062 |
| Vernon | 7,924 | 53.38% | 6,774 | 45.63% | 147 | 0.99% | 1,150 | 7.75% | 14,845 |
| Vilas | 5,713 | 40.80% | 8,155 | 58.24% | 134 | 0.95% | -2,442 | -17.44% | 14,002 |
| Walworth | 19,177 | 39.58% | 28,754 | 59.35% | 515 | 1.06% | -9,577 | -19.77% | 48,446 |
| Washburn | 4,705 | 49.18% | 4,762 | 49.78% | 100 | 1.05% | -57 | -0.60% | 9,567 |
| Washington | 21,234 | 29.30% | 50,641 | 69.88% | 592 | 0.82% | -29,407 | -40.58% | 72,467 |
| Waukesha | 73,626 | 31.96% | 154,926 | 67.25% | 1,811 | 0.79% | -81,300 | -35.29% | 230,363 |
| Waupaca | 10,792 | 40.01% | 15,941 | 59.10% | 241 | 0.89% | -5,149 | -19.09% | 26,974 |
| Waushara | 5,257 | 42.93% | 6,888 | 56.25% | 101 | 0.83% | -1,631 | -13.32% | 12,246 |
| Winnebago | 40,943 | 46.21% | 46,542 | 52.53% | 1,111 | 1.25% | -5,599 | -6.32% | 88,596 |
| Wood | 18,950 | 47.29% | 20,592 | 51.39% | 529 | 1.32% | -1,642 | -4.10% | 40,071 |
| Totals | 1,489,504 | 49.70% | 1,478,120 | 49.32% | 29,383 | 0.98% | 11,384 | 0.38% | 2,997,007 |
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Iron (Largest city: Hurley)
- Price (Largest city: Park Falls)
By congressional district
Bush and Kerry each won four congressional districts.[9]
| District | Bush | Kerry | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 54% | 46% | Paul Ryan |
| 2nd | 37% | 62% | Tammy Baldwin |
| 3rd | 48% | 51% | Ron Kind |
| 4th | 30% | 70% | Jerry Kleczka |
| Gwen Moore | |||
| 5th | 63% | 36% | Jim Sensenbrenner |
| 6th | 56% | 43% | Tom Petri |
| 7th | 49% | 50% | Dave Obey |
| 8th | 55% | 44% | Mark Andrew Green |
Electors
Technically the voters of Wisconsin cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Wisconsin is allocated 10 electors because it has 8 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 10 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 10 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.
The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.
The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 10 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards.
- Gail Gabrelian
- Margaret McEntire
- Jordan Franklin
- Martha Toran
- Jim Shinners
- Jan Banicki
- Daniel Hannula
- Steve Mellenthin
- Glenn Carlson
- Linda Honold
References
- "Wisconsin Voter Turnout Statistics". Wisconsin Election Commission. Wisconsin Election Commission. Retrieved September 25, 2020.
- "D.C.'s Political Report's 2004 Presidential Ratings". Archived from the original on November 21, 2010. Retrieved July 8, 2021.
- "2004 Presidential Election Polls". Retrieved July 8, 2021.
- George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President
- John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President
- CNN.com Specials
- CNN.com Specials
- CNN.com Election 2004
- Swing State Project: Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008
