2004 United States presidential election in Washington (state)
The 2004 United States presidential election in Washington took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 11 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.
 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 82.05% (of registered voters)
 6.59%[1] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
 County Results
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Elections in Washington |
|---|
 |
The State of Washington was considered a competitive swing state in 2004, and on election day, Kerry won the state with a margin of 7.2%. This is the most recent presidential election in which Washington was considered a swing state.[2] As of the 2020 presidential election, this remains the last time the state's margin of victory was in single digits and the last time a Republican received more than 45% of the state's vote. This also remains the only time since statehood that any president was elected twice without carrying Washington either time.
Campaign
Predictions
There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[3]
| Source | Ranking |
|---|---|
| D.C. Political Report | Solid D |
| Cook Political Report | Solid D |
| Newsweek | Solid D |
| Zogby International | Likely D |
| Washington Post | Likely D |
| Research 2000 | Solid D |
| Washington Times | Solid D |
| Washington Dispatch | Likely D |
| The New York Times | Solid D |
| CNN | Likely D |
| Associated Press | Solid D |
| Rasmussen Reports | Likely D |
Polling
Kerry won every single pre-election except one tie. The final 3 poll average had Kerry winning with 50% to 45%.[4]
Analysis
A Democratic leaning swing state at the time, Washington has voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in every presidential election since 1988. Like Oregon, the state is divided politically by the urban/rural divide and geographically by the Cascade Mountains. Most of the state's population resides in Western Washington along the Pacific Coast and in highly urbanized areas like Seattle; this part of the state votes overwhelmingly Democratic. The other side of the mountains in Eastern Washington is much more rural and conservative and therefore heavily Republican. While polling showed that voters trusted Bush more than Kerry on the issue of terrorism, the Iraq War and Bush's domestic policies were unpopular in the state.[9] As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last election in which Clark County, Island County, and Skagit County voted for the Republican candidate.
Results
| 2004 United States presidential election in Washington (state) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Running mate | Votes | Percentage | Electoral votes | |
| Democratic | John Forbes Kerry | John Reid Edwards | 1,510,201 | 52.82% | 11 | |
| Republican | George Walker Bush (Incumbent) | Richard Bruce Cheney (Incumbent) | 1,304,894 | 45.64% | 0 | |
| Independent | Ralph Nader | Peter Camejo | 23,283 | 0.81% | 0 | |
| Libertarian | Michael Badnarik | Richard Campagna | 11,955 | 0.42% | 0 | |
| Constitution | Michael Peroutka | Chuck Baldwin | 3,922 | 0.14% | 0 | |
| Green | David Cobb | Darrell Castle | 2,974 | 0.10% | 0 | |
| Workers World | John Parker | Teresa Gutierrez | 1,077 | 0.04% | 0 | |
| Socialist Workers | Roger Calero | Margaret Trowe | 547 | 0.02% | 0 | |
| Socialist Equality | Bill Van Auken | Jim Lawrence | 231 | 0.01% | 0 | |
| Totals | 2,859,084 | 100.00% | 11 | |||
| Voter turnout (Voting age population) | 61.7% | |||||
By county
| County | John Kerry Democratic |
George W. Bush Republican |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Adams | 1,315 | 25.65% | 3,751 | 73.16% | 61 | 1.19% | -2,436 | -47.51% | 5,127 |
| Asotin | 3,319 | 37.78% | 5,320 | 60.55% | 147 | 1.67% | -2,001 | -22.77% | 8,786 |
| Benton | 21,549 | 32.21% | 44,350 | 66.30% | 993 | 1.48% | -22,801 | -34.09% | 66,892 |
| Chelan | 10,471 | 35.58% | 18,482 | 62.80% | 477 | 1.62% | -8,011 | -27.22% | 29,430 |
| Clallam | 17,049 | 46.37% | 18,871 | 51.33% | 846 | 2.30% | -1,822 | -4.96% | 36,766 |
| Clark | 79,538 | 46.65% | 88,646 | 51.99% | 2,311 | 1.36% | -9,108 | -5.34% | 170,495 |
| Columbia | 605 | 28.71% | 1,470 | 69.77% | 32 | 1.52% | -865 | -41.06% | 2,107 |
| Cowlitz | 21,589 | 50.76% | 20,217 | 47.54% | 724 | 1.71% | 1,372 | 3.22% | 42,530 |
| Douglas | 4,306 | 32.20% | 8,900 | 66.56% | 166 | 1.25% | -4,594 | -34.36% | 13,372 |
| Ferry | 1,201 | 35.92% | 2,019 | 60.38% | 124 | 3.71% | -818 | -24.46% | 3,344 |
| Franklin | 5,188 | 32.11% | 10,757 | 66.57% | 214 | 1.32% | -5,569 | -34.46% | 16,159 |
| Garfield | 365 | 27.65% | 935 | 70.83% | 20 | 1.51% | -570 | -43.18% | 1,320 |
| Grant | 7,779 | 29.92% | 17,799 | 68.47% | 417 | 1.60% | -10,020 | -38.55% | 25,995 |
| Grays Harbor | 14,583 | 52.17% | 12,871 | 46.05% | 499 | 1.78% | 1,712 | 6.12% | 27,953 |
| Island | 18,216 | 47.22% | 19,754 | 51.20% | 610 | 1.58% | -1,538 | -3.98% | 38,580 |
| Jefferson | 11,610 | 62.25% | 6,650 | 35.66% | 390 | 2.09% | 4,960 | 26.59% | 18,650 |
| King | 580,378 | 64.87% | 301,043 | 33.65% | 13,307 | 1.48% | 279,335 | 31.22% | 894,728 |
| Kitsap | 60,796 | 51.23% | 55,608 | 46.86% | 2,266 | 1.91% | 5,188 | 4.37% | 118,670 |
| Kittitas | 6,731 | 41.77% | 9,052 | 56.17% | 331 | 2.05% | -2,321 | -14.40% | 16,114 |
| Klickitat | 4,036 | 43.63% | 5,016 | 54.23% | 198 | 2.15% | -980 | -10.60% | 9,250 |
| Lewis | 10,726 | 33.08% | 21,042 | 64.89% | 660 | 2.04% | -10,316 | -31.81% | 32,428 |
| Lincoln | 1,706 | 29.36% | 4,015 | 69.09% | 90 | 1.56% | -2,309 | -39.73% | 5,811 |
| Mason | 12,894 | 50.78% | 11,987 | 47.20% | 513 | 2.01% | 907 | 3.58% | 25,394 |
| Okanogan | 6,309 | 38.61% | 9,636 | 58.96% | 397 | 2.43% | -3,327 | -20.35% | 16,342 |
| Pacific | 5,570 | 53.40% | 4,634 | 44.43% | 227 | 2.17% | 936 | 8.97% | 10,431 |
| Pend Oreille | 2,310 | 37.27% | 3,693 | 59.58% | 195 | 3.14% | -1,383 | -22.31% | 6,198 |
| Pierce | 158,231 | 50.43% | 150,783 | 48.05% | 4,779 | 1.53% | 7,448 | 2.38% | 313,793 |
| San Juan | 6,589 | 65.21% | 3,290 | 32.56% | 225 | 2.23% | 3,299 | 32.65% | 10,104 |
| Skagit | 25,131 | 48.05% | 26,139 | 49.98% | 1,029 | 1.96% | -1,008 | -1.93% | 52,299 |
| Skamania | 2,374 | 46.02% | 2,695 | 52.24% | 90 | 1.74% | -321 | -6.22% | 5,159 |
| Snohomish | 156,468 | 52.97% | 134,317 | 45.47% | 4,629 | 1.57% | 22,151 | 7.50% | 295,414 |
| Spokane | 87,490 | 43.19% | 111,606 | 55.09% | 3,491 | 1.72% | -24,116 | -11.90% | 202,587 |
| Stevens | 6,822 | 33.54% | 13,015 | 63.99% | 503 | 2.47% | -6,193 | -30.45% | 20,340 |
| Thurston | 62,650 | 55.55% | 47,992 | 42.55% | 2,147 | 1.90% | 14,658 | 13.00% | 112,789 |
| Wahkiakum | 1,021 | 45.68% | 1,171 | 52.39% | 43 | 1.92% | -150 | -6.71% | 2,235 |
| Walla Walla | 8,257 | 36.02% | 14,323 | 62.48% | 345 | 1.50% | -6,066 | -26.46% | 22,925 |
| Whatcom | 48,268 | 53.40% | 40,296 | 44.58% | 1,830 | 2.02% | 7,972 | 8.82% | 90,394 |
| Whitman | 8,287 | 46.01% | 9,397 | 52.17% | 328 | 1.83% | -1,110 | -6.16% | 18,012 |
| Yakima | 28,474 | 39.12% | 43,352 | 59.56% | 964 | 1.32% | -14,878 | -20.44% | 72,790 |
| Totals | 1,510,201 | 52.77% | 1,304,894 | 45.60% | 46,618 | 1.63% | 205,307 | 7.17% | 2,861,713 |
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Whatcom (Largest city: Bellingham)
By congressional district
Kerry won 6 of 9 congressional districts. Both candidates won a district held by the other party.[10]
| District | Bush | Kerry | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 42% | 56% | Jay Inslee |
| 2nd | 47% | 51% | Rick Larsen |
| 3rd | 50% | 48% | Brian Baird |
| 4th | 63% | 35% | Doc Hastings |
| 5th | 57% | 41% | George Nethercutt |
| Cathy McMorris Rodgers | |||
| 6th | 45% | 53% | Norman D. Dicks |
| 7th | 19% | 79% | Jim McDermott |
| 8th | 48% | 51% | Jennifer Dunn |
| Dave Reichert | |||
| 9th | 46% | 53% | Adam Smith |
Electors
Technically the voters of Washington cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Washington is allocated 11 electors because it has 9 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 11 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 11 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.
The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.
The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 11 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards:
- David Peterson
- Mary Ervin
- Valeria Ogden
- Patsy Whitefoot
- Larry Armstrong
- Ken Bumgarner
- Richard Kelley
- Sarah Chandler
- Greg Markley
- Alan Johanson
- Mary Crosby
References
- Secretary of State: Kim Wyman. "Voter Turnout by Election". www.sos.wa.gov. Retrieved May 25, 2020.
- Levien, Andrea (October 4, 2012). "How New Mexico Lost Its Swing". FairVote. Retrieved November 24, 2020.
- Members DC Political Report
- "2004 Presidential Election Polls. Washington Polls". US Election Atlas.
- "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President".
- "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President".
- "America votes 2004: Candidate tracker". CNN. Retrieved May 27, 2022.
- "America votes 2004: Campaign ad buys". CNN. Archived from the original on April 22, 2021. Retrieved May 27, 2022.
- "Election 2004: Exit polls". Cnn.com. April 13, 1970. Retrieved May 27, 2022.
- "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project".
